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Superbowl Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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I seriously doubt the oddsmakers are handicapping the game based off of amateur bettors.

 

 

The betting public IS the determining factor in point spreads. Public perception has EVERYTHING to do with how the books determine the point spreads.

 

Oddsmakers are only interested in making sure they take equal action on both teams in any game. If they know that the public likes to bet on one team over another, the line will be adjusted accordingly.

 

If the betting public did not like to bet on the Colts, the spread for this game might have been set at 5 or 6. But at 7 the books know they will get plenty of action on the Bears with that nice touchdown spread.

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You don't think an uneducated betting public putting down dimes influences the point spread?

 

 

Don't want to get into this too much, but no I don't think they are too worried about the uneductated betting public at all. A dime bet on the SB is crumbs. Think they are alot more worried about the professional bettors who would jump on a game way off whack.

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The betting public IS the determining factor in point spreads. Public perception has EVERYTHING to do with how the books determine the point spreads.

 

Oddsmakers are only interested in making sure they take equal action on both teams in any game. If they know that the public likes to bet on one team over another, the line will be adjusted accordingly.

 

If the betting public did not like to bet on the Colts, the spread for this game might have been set at 5 or 6. But at 7 the books know they will get plenty of action on the Bears with that nice touchdown spread.

 

 

While the Stardust had the distinction of setting the 'opening line' for several decades, many offshore books release their numbers even earlier on the Internet. The rest of the offshore industry - and even some Las Vegas bookmakers - often follow the lead of these offshore books when setting their initial numbers after they have been flattened out by the professional bettors.

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While the Stardust had the distinction of setting the 'opening line' for several decades, many offshore books release their numbers even earlier on the Internet. The rest of the offshore industry - and even some Las Vegas bookmakers - often follow the lead of these offshore books when setting their initial numbers after they have been flattened out by the professional bettors.

 

Thanks for that informative lesson in gaming. I would imagine I have been betting longer than you have been alive, but I am sure there is much you could teach all of us on this thread about the intricacies of the industry.

 

Please note, this is a Gamblers thread, not a pissing contest thread. I respectfully ask that you return to the multitude of other threads where your knowledge can be better appreciated.

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Thanks for that informative lesson in gaming. I would imagine I have been betting longer than you have been alive, but I am sure there is much you could teach all of us on this thread about the intricacies of the industry.

 

Please note, this is a Gamblers thread, not a pissing contest thread. I respectfully ask that you return to the multitude of other threads where your knowledge can be better appreciated.

 

 

:D:clap::D:bash::tup:

 

 

 

 

 

on a sidenote, i hope the bears didn't get the kiss of death. terrel owens on nfl network talking to deion likes the bears. that can't be good no matter how you look at it.

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Thanks for that informative lesson in gaming. I would imagine I have been betting longer than you have been alive, but I am sure there is much you could teach all of us on this thread about the intricacies of the industry.

 

Please note, this is a Gamblers thread, not a pissing contest thread. I respectfully ask that you return to the multitude of other threads where your knowledge can be better appreciated.

 

 

:D

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I was doing a little backsearching, and found this article which was put out prior to last year's SB, but discusses the NE/Phi SB from the year before, and the line there is very similar to the line here, and it appears the same thing is happening w/ the value of the ML (-246 for Ind, +226 for Chi):

 

(Written by Simon Noble of Pinnacle Sports)

 

Super Bowl Betting Tips - Moneyline vs Spread

 

With nearly two weeks until the Super Bowl, bettors have plenty of time to decide which team they like in the championship game. During this period, you should not only study how the teams match-up, but also how to maximize your earning potential on the big game.

 

If you like a particular team in a match-up, you should decide whether to bet the spread or the moneyline. To decide which line offers better value, you need a “moneyline to spread” conversion chart. Most linesmakers have made one of these charts by tallying wins and losses for favorites of different spreads. You can make your own chart by looking at games at each spread, and comparing the wins versus losses. The ML for a favorite at a given spread is (-100 * wins / losses).

 

You can create a database to make a conversion chart, or use this basic moneyline to spread conversion chart for ease of reference:

 

Spread No-Vig Moneyline

 

-1 -107/+107

-2 -115/+115

-3 -145/+145

-4 -180/+180

-5 -210/+210

-6 -240/+240

-7 -290/+290

-8 -320/+320

-9 -360/+360

-10 -400/+400

 

This chart is just a general guideline. To gain more power, generate your own conversion charts for home/away, and high/low totals. In general, home teams do slightly better at any given spread. You’ll also find that as the totals decrease, the moneyline for a given spread increases. So a 7-point favorite in a game with a total of 30 might be -330 (instead of -280 for a typical game with a 42.5 total).

 

Sometimes you’ll find a spread and moneyline that really don’t coincide and this is often the case in the Super Bowl. In last year’s game between New England and Philadelphia, the Patriots were 7-point favorites and -230 favorites on the moneyline. For this match-up, you’d normally expect the no-vig moneyline to be about -290. In this case, public betting caused an inaccurate conversion.

 

The public tends to bet the underdog on the moneyline and the favorite on the spread. These two tendencies combine to force the spread and moneyline out of alignment. Whether this is the result of public betting or a linesman sleeping on the job, alert players can profit as there are many ways to benefit in these situations.

 

If you’re certain one of the lines is off, but not sure which, many professionals play “the middle” by betting on both the moneyline favorite and the underdog on the spread. In the last two Super Bowls, sharp bettors have profited by simply fading the public. In last year’s Super Bowl, wise guys “middled” the game by making the following bets:

 

$1150 to win $1000 on Philadelphia Eagles +7.5

$1498 to win $652 on New England moneyline

 

In this case the middle paid off as New England won by 3 points, paying sharp bettors on both the moneyline and the spread. If the Patriots had won by more than 7 (or if the Eagles won), the bets would have had a combined net loss of $498. These bets in combination are giving you 3.3 to 1 odds on the prop “Will the Patriots win by 1-7?” when the fair odds would be closer to 2.6 to 1. The gap between 3.3:1 and 2.6:1 is the overlay caused by public bettors.

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Thanks for that informative lesson in gaming. I would imagine I have been betting longer than you have been alive, but I am sure there is much you could teach all of us on this thread about the intricacies of the industry.

 

Please note, this is a Gamblers thread, not a pissing contest thread. I respectfully ask that you return to the multitude of other threads where your knowledge can be better appreciated.

 

 

You're right about one thing Rat Ass, you have been betting longer than me. In fact, I'm probably the guy you paid off each week at the local bar. You paid for my first sports car, my college education, my first house and my wife's wedding ring. Thanks for thinking you are smarter than me. :D

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You're right about one thing Rat Ass, you have been betting longer than me. In fact, I'm probably the guy you paid off each week at the local bar. You paid for my first sports car, my college education, my first house and my wife's wedding ring. Thanks for thinking you are smarter than me. :D

 

 

I think you were better off leaving this as was; as we were all convinced of your incredible gambling prowess. But, mocking someone who writes about football professionally (and routinely covers aspects of gambling) isn't going to help your case much. Short list for NTOY for sure.

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I think you were better off leaving this as was; as we were all convinced of your incredible gambling prowess. But, mocking someone who writes about football professionally (and routinely covers aspects of gambling) isn't going to help your case much. Short list for NTOY for sure.

 

 

If he routinely covers aspects of gambling then he knows I'm right. :D

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One other possiblity for you is not going for a middle, but going for a true hedge. This is because we got in on the Colts +150 last week:

 

You could take 1/2 of what you bet on Colts +150 and put it on the Bears ML at +225

 

Then your 3 scenarios end up being:

 

Colts Win and Cover 100% profit

Colts Win/Bears Cover 100% profit

Bears Win 13% profit

 

 

 

 

Thanks Dre, really appreciate the advice! I set it up last night and now I'm ready to make some $$$ :D

 

Again, thank you.

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Thanks Dre, really appreciate the advice! I set it up last night and now I'm ready to make some $$$ :D

 

Again, thank you.

 

 

No problem. If you played it like that, you can sit back and know you will be making money on the game regardless, no chance to lose, but you need to be pulling for the Colts (obviously).

 

I'll be in a similar situation, except I will be down money should the Colts lose.

 

I'm glad you took Colts to win the SB at +150 the other week - really opened up our options this week. Congrats on the winning Sunday already!

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No problem. If you played it like that, you can sit back and know you will be making money on the game regardless, no chance to lose, but you need to be pulling for the Colts (obviously).

 

I'll be in a similar situation, except I will be down money should the Colts lose.

 

I'm glad you took Colts to win the SB at +150 the other week - really opened up our options this week. Congrats on the winning Sunday already!

 

 

Yeah, having the Colts future really opened things up for me...wouldn't have happened without your advice, so I am very grateful.

 

Right now I have:

 

Colts will win SB Future

Bears +7.5

Bears ML + 220

 

Man it would be sweet if the Colts win but don't cover :D

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Brandon Lang's Pick

 

Just to post it so you know what he's on. I do not advocate following him, just letting you know what he is on. Also, I would find it hard to believe he is 14-0-2.

 

SUPER BOWL

 

 

IMPORTANT

 

 

 

Print out my Super Bowl analysis - or copy it an email it to yourself - because if you got it through the purchase of a One-Day Discount Package today, or via a One-Day Cappers Consensus Purchase, you will NOT be able to see it again tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

100 DIME

 

 

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

 

 

 

If your man has 7 1/2 you buy the hook and only lay 7. You NEVER, I repeat, you NEVER get beat by the hook. Only lay 7 and protect yourself. It's like buying insurance. Never get beat by the hook

 

 

 

FINAL SCORE - 31-13

 

 

 

5 FUN PROP BETS

 

 

 

1) Reggie Wayne to score first touchdown

 

2) Team to punt first - Bears

 

3) Grossman will throw an intercepiton

 

4) Field Goal OVER 44 yards

 

5) Longest TD of game OVER 45 1/2 yards

 

 

 

 

 

NOTE:

 

Let me first start out by saying that this one single game has defined my career. It has made me who I am in this business.

 

 

 

You don’t go 14-0-2 with the 16 Super Bowl selections you have been asked to pick unless you understand the difference between this game and any other that these two teams have played all year

 

 

 

You see, what people don’t understand is that this is the easiest game in the world to get on the right side of than any other because of one very big factor…..”match ups.”

 

 

 

I have been asked time and time again what my system is, my formula, my magic if you will with picking this winner every time I have been asked to do it my entire life. My answer is always the same.

 

 

 

Of the two teams that are playing, who will be able to create more mismatches to their advantage because it is within these mismatches that the game will be determined.

 

 

 

You have to make plays in the Super Bowl. You have to have more players, on both sides of the football , who can make plays and more importantly, make plays under pressure because this game is the most pressure packed game in any sport.

 

What helps ease this pressure? Studying your opponent for 2 weeks and knowing, 100% they have a weakness that you will exploit. That my friends takes care of the pressure.

 

 

So without further delay, allow me to give you my analysis of what I truly feel will be my 15th straight Super Bowl winner.

 

 

 

 

 

INDY

Allow me to ask everyone a couple of questions right now. Here we go.

 

If the Bears wouldn’t have had home field advantage in their two playoff games would they be in this game? Seriously, they struggled with the Seahawks and then got a dome team outdoors.

 

Next, could this Bears team have gone into Baltimore and beaten the Ravens like Indy did? Just pause a minute, close your eyes, and picture Rex Grossman against that Ravens defense. Yeah, pretty ugly.

 

You see, Indy earned their way here. They held the Chiefs to 0 first downs for 2 ½ quarters. They went into Baltimore and went up and down the field on the number one defense in the NFL.

 

Now granted, the drives ended in field goals but that still does not take away from the fact they moved the ball at will. That is how good this Indy offense is.

 

With that being said, this is the Bears worst nightmare come to life. A no huddle, passing team to exploit the biggest weakness they have and that weakness is their pass defense.

 

I can’t even begin to tell you in watching film of the Bears secondary how many guys were open in the Seattle game as well as the Saints. The only reason why the Saints didn’t convert more was because Drew Brees had his 2nd worst game of the year. The first was the Ravens at home.

 

In talking to a couple of scouts around the league about this game, they all told me the same thing, if a team has time to throw, you can shredd this Bears secondary.

 

Folks, allow me to introduce to you the no huddle offense. As I said before, this is going to be the worst nightmare come to life for the Bears because in their 18 games this year, they have not seen an offense as fine tuned as this.

 

Furthermore, what makes the Colts so hard to defend is the fact they do not outsmart themselves. If they have a mismatch that they can exploit, they will keep going to it time and time again until you stop it.

 

Now here is the tricky part. Once you stop that leak, Peyton has already sprouted another one on you and before you know it, another problem for you to solve.

 

Here is the problem facing the Bears. They have their corners on the outside matched up with Wayne on one side and Harrison on the other. Their safeties in the middle of the field have to cheat towards the sideline to give over the top help.

 

That opens up 2 very important things for Indy. Their rush attack and the Colts ability to work the middle of the field. Peyton will chip away at that until the Bears adjust and when they do, goodnight with Wayne and Harrison on the outside.

 

Indy is going to force the Bears right from the opening kickoff to pick their poison and when they do, you had better believe the Colts will have an answer.

 

I was so impressed with the way the Colts moved the ball on the Ravens in Baltimore. It was a clinic and the Bears defense isn’t even in the same league as Baltimore.

 

People keep talking about this great Bears defense but that is where they are really missing this game. They aren’t great and they can be had, especially on a neutral field, in 75 degree heat by Peyton Manning.

 

Now I have heard everyone talk about the fact that the Bears will be able to run the football and control the clock because the Colts are the worst run defense in during the regular season.

 

Well, as you can see, big difference between the regular season and playoffs. Just ask the Chiefs and Ravens, who were shut down.

 

The Bears run the ball by trying to be big and physical, just like the Ravens and the Chiefs and they will suffer the same fate.

 

Tony Dungy basically said to both of them, "I will put 8 in the box and make Trent Green and Stever McNair beat me. They couldn't and if two Pro Bowl QB's and a former league MVP couldn't, I don't see how people think Rex Grossman will.

 

The Bears run the ball by trying to be big and physical, just like the Ravens and the Chiefs and they will suffer the same fate.

 

That is what is going to happen people. Tony Dungy is smart enough to make this kid beat him in the biggest game of his life. It is not going to happen. Not in in my lifetime.

 

The only way the Bears cover this game is with a special teams touchdown by Hester. The only way.

 

If that happens so be it.

 

My money is on Indy, on the better QB, the better offense, the better coach and flat out the better team.

 

Congrats to owner Jim Irsay, one of the most sincere and geniune men I have ever had the pleasure of meeting. Congrats to Tony Dungy and congrats to Peyton Manning.

 

 

Colts are your Super Bowl champions by double digits...31-13

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Dr. Bob Picks

 

DR. BOB

 

Chicago is a 2-Star at +7 at -1.15 odds or less.

 

2 Star Selection

**Chicago (+7) 23 Indianapolis 24 (at Miami)

03:15 PM Pacific, 04-Feb-07

The pointspread in the Super Bowl is determined by public perception more than a normal NFL game because more amateur money is going to be placed on this game than on any other game all season. Public perception concerning this game is that the Bears’ defense isn’t as strong as it was earlier in the season because of injuries to safety Mike Brown and defensive tackle Tommie Harris. The public also feels that the return of Colts’ safety Bob Sanders has transformed a mediocre defense into a good unit. Those two theories combine to make the Colts a 7 point favorite in this game, which is simply too high.

 

Chicago’s defense has not been hurt at all by the losses of Brown or Harris and the Bears’ poor late-season performances, in which they allowed 26.3 points on 5.2 yards per play in their final 4 regular season, was a function of playing all 4 of those games without either starting cornerback Nathan Vasher (missed weeks 14 and 15) or the other star corner Charles Tillman (missed week 16 and 17) – as well as being without strong safety Todd Johnson for that stretch (he only played sparingly in one of the final 5 games). The Bears’ run defense is actually better than their season average in 6 games since losing Harris, allowing 3.8 ypr to teams that would combine to average 4.0 ypr against an average defensive team (they’re exactly average against the run for the season). The Bears lost Mike Brown in week 7 and the pass defense rated exactly the same (1.0 yards per pass play better than average) from weeks 8 through 13 (when both Vasher and Tillman were healthy) as it did from weeks 1 through 7 with Brown. So the key to Chicago’s defense is not Brown or Harris, but rather having both of their high quality cornerbacks playing at the same time so the safeties can blitz or focus more on defending the run. Chicago’s run defense is just average for the season (4.1 ypr allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.1 ypr against an average team), but their pass defense has allowed only 4.9 yards per pass play with both starting corners playing (against teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppp against an average defensive team). The Colts’ attack was slightly worse than average running the ball this season (4.2 ypr against teams that would combine to allow 4.3 ypr to an average team) while Peyton Manning has averaged 7.4 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, the Colts are 0.8 yards per play better than average for the season offensively and they have the advantage against a Bears’ defense that rates at 0.5 yppl better than average with their current personnel.

 

The Colts defense has certainly been better in the playoffs than they were in the regular season and most people give credit to the return of safety Bob Sanders. However, Sanders also played in 4 regular season games and the Colts were actually worse than normal in those games and the Indy defense has allowed 5.5 yppl in the 7 games that Sanders has been healthy (including the 3 playoff games) - against teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Indianapolis is also 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively for the season so Sanders is certainly not the reason for the Colts’ recent improved play defensively. The credit for the improvement should go to veteran linebacker Rob Morris, who has racked up 54 tackles in his 8 starts this year. The Colts’ normally horrible run defense was not so bad with the sure tackling Morris starting, as Indy – which allowed 5.2 ypr for the season – has only yielded 4.2 ypr in 8 games with Morris starting (against teams that would average 4.0 ypr against an average team). The Indianapolis pass defense has been good all season, allowing 5.7 yppp to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average defensive unit, but the pass defense has been even better in Morris’ 8 starts (5.6 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.3 yppp). Overall, the Colts rate at 0.3 yppl better than average with Morris in the lineup and Chicago’s attack rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average with quarterback Rex Grossman on the field (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average offensive team). Grossman’s main detractors sight his 21 interceptions, but Grossman’s most of his interceptions all came in just 6 games while he was interception free in 9 of 18 games and threw only 1 pick or fewer in 12 of 18 games – so Grossman is not likely to throw more than 1 interception in this game.

 

If I assume that the Indianapolis defense is really as good as they’ve been in Morris’ other 8 starts then my math model projects the Colts with a 347 yards (at 5.5 yppl) to 283 yards (at 4.6 yppl) in this game. Indianapolis also has a 1.7 points advantage in projected turnovers, but Chicago has a HUGE edge in special teams. The Bears’ explosive return man Devin Hester, who had a record 6 return TD’s this season, should give the Bears excellent field position against a Colts team that allows a horrible 13.0 yards per punt return and has allowed an average starting position of the 30 yard line on kickoffs this season (not including onside kicks). Chicago’s Brad Maynard averages a better than average 37.9 net yards per punt while the Colts average 34.9 net punting (mostly because their coverage is so bad). The Bears, with Hester returning punts, allow a net of just 35.0 yards on punts while the Colts allow 37.3 net punting, which is a bit worse than average. I project the starting yard line on kickoffs at the 25 yard line for the Colts and the 32 yard line for the Bears and that difference is worth more than you think it is. Chicago only out-gained their opponents by an average of 29 yards per game this season yet they out-scored their foes by an average of 11.1 points per game – so don’t underestimate the affect that their superior special teams may have on this game. Overall the Bears have an enormous 3.4 points edge in special teams and my math model favors the Colts by just 4 points even assuming that their defense really is improved when there is a chance that that improvement is nothing more than random variance (especially given that the Colts allowed 5.5 yppl in their Championship game win to a Patriots team that would average 5.3 yppl on the road against an average defensive team). If the Colts’ recent defensive improvement is indeed a mirage then my math model would favor Indy by just 1 ½ points. Since I’m considering the Bears for a play I’ll assume that the Colts are actually improved defensively (it’s always best to be conservative when considering a bet).

 

I’m sure that the oddsmakers also know that the Colts should be favored by no more than 4 points on a neutral field over the Bears but they are forced to make the line higher based on the tendency of the public to bet on the favorite in the Super Bowl. That tendency comes from the memory of a series of Super Bowl blowouts from the mid-80’s to the mid-90’s when the average margin of victory in the Super Bowl was 23 points over a 12 year stretch from 1984 through 1995. There is certainly a long history of blowout wins in Championship games going back to the pre-Super Bowl days and that phenomenon is more than just statistical variance. Unlike in regular season games, when teams in control often relax, teams on the verge of a championship victory tend to maintain their high intensity level. Respect of the opposition and the fear of the “brass ring†slipping off their finger encourage the dominant team to increase the margin of victory. At the same time the spirits of the trailing team diminish as their hopes of a championship are dashed. In Championship games and Super Bowls over the years the trailing team has also proven more likely than normal to use desperate measures to try to get themselves back in the game, which more often than not makes matters worse. However, most of the blowouts in Super Bowl history were in games in which the favored team truly was the dominant team heading into the game and there have been a number of blowout wins by the underdog too.

 

Those of you that have been with me for many years may remember that I often covert my actual fair line (based on normal circumstances) into a Super Bowl line that is based on the fact that Championship games tend to become blowouts. Each year I calculate an equation to predict a likely Super Bowl margin of victory based on what the line on each Super Bowl game would have been in normal circumstances. I use the mathematically fair line for all Super Bowls since 1987 (when I started keeping my math projections on the game) and I use the actual pointspread for all Super Bowls from the AFL-NFL merger in Super Bowl 4 through Super Bowl 21 in 1987. The equation I come up with certainly suggests that teams that are clearly better should certainly be favored by more than they would be favored by under normal circumstances. For instance, a team that would be favored by 7 points under non-Super Bowl circumstances should be a 13 point favorite in the Super Bowl based on the equation that takes into account the tendency for blowouts in the Super Bowl. Using that same equation, a team that should be favored by 4.2 points in a normal game, as my math suggests Indy should be favored by this year, actually deserves to be a 5.6 point favorite in the Super Bowl. If Colts by 5.6 points is actually a realistic Super Bowl spread for this game then Chicago would have a 53.4% chance of covering at +6 ½ points and a 56.7% chance of covering at +7 points.

 

The tendency for blowouts in the Super Bowl has subsided in recent years and underdogs covered the pointspread in the Super Bowl for 4 consecutive years until last season when the Seahawks were robbed by the officials and failed to cover against the Steelers. I’ve had success in recent years going with the underdog in the Super Bowl based on the line value and the Bears are certainly the way to go in this game given the inflated line. Remember, my math model prediction of Colts by 4.2 points was assuming that the Colts’ defensive improvement was actually real when it could be nothing more than random variance. Chicago out-scored their opponents this season by 11.1 points playing a schedule that 2.2 points worse than average (so the Bears were 8.9 points better than average in point differential). The Colts outscored their foes by only 5.0 points against a schedule of teams that is 2.7 points better than average (so they are 7.7 points better than average using point differentials). So, a case can be made that the Bears should be favored in this game. Chicago is also 15-3 while Indianapolis enters this game with a 15-4 record, and teams with a better win-loss record are 22-6-1 ATS as underdogs in the post-season since 1980, including 4-0-1 ATS in the Super Bowl (those teams are 19-10 straight up too).

 

Chicago has at least a 56.7% chance of covering at +7 points (higher if the Colts’ defense isn’t really improved) and I’ll take Chicago in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points at -1.15 odds or better. Chicago is a Strong Opinion at +7 at -1.20 and a regular opinion at +7 -1.25 or higher or +6 ½ points.

 

Over/Under

My math model projected total score on this game is 43 points assuming the Colts’ defense is indeed improved, and 45 points if it is not, but Super Bowls tend to be higher scoring, especially when the teams had an extra week off to game plan. Since 1981 there have been 7 Super Bowls that were played the week following the conference championship games and those 7 games averaged 43.1 points while the 19 Super Bowls since 1981 in which the game was played two weeks after the championship games averaged 53.3 points. I ran a correlation between my math model predictions and the actual totals and a total of 43 points results in a Super Bowl total of 48 ½ points, which is very close to the current over/under of 48 points (so I have no opinion on the total).

 

Propositions

Most of the propositions are not worth even looking at but I can use my math model projections to calculate some yardage totals for the key players. Here are my projections for the player stats with the actual consensus line in parenthesis.

 

Manning 265 gross passing yards (actual over/under is about 267 yards)

Addai 63 ½ rushing yards (62 yards)

Harrison 76 ½ receiving yards (77 yards)

Wayne 74 receiving yards (76 yards)

Clark 40 receiving yards (50 yards)

Grossman 189 passing yards (212 ½ yards)

Jones 75 ½ rushing yards (75 ½ yards)

Benson 40 ½ rushing yards (49 yards)

Berrian 65 ½ receiving yards (69 ½ yards)

 

 

I will consider Grossman Under in passing yards as a Strong Opinion and will lean with Clark under and Benson under.

 

Math Model

The chance to cover listed in the math model below is based on the historical accuracy of my math model, but in this case the mathematical chance for Chicago to cover is actually 56.7% at +7 and 53.4% at +6 1/2 points.

 

 

 

NFL Math Model Predictions

Percent chance of covering based only on math only and does not include any situational analysis.

My math predictions are not done for this week. Please check back later.

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While the Stardust had the distinction of setting the 'opening line' for several decades, many offshore books release their numbers even earlier on the Internet. The rest of the offshore industry - and even some Las Vegas bookmakers - often follow the lead of these offshore books when setting their initial numbers after they have been flattened out by the professional bettors.

 

 

 

That is especially true during the superbowl, because professional bettors usually bet tons of money on this game for no particular reason while the novice bettors don't really pay attention to this game.

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over/under dropped another 1/2 pt. and now stands at 47.5. makes the over look tempting now on a 6 pt teaser at 41.5.

 

 

Man I just don't understand the Under action coming in. I'm on the over.

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what was a disparity on the over bets 70/30 is now at 50/50. the spread has also dropped 1/2 pt to the bears +6.5 and ml +195. i'm liking the bears first half +4 a little more.

 

Bears +4 for 1st half is not a bad bet at all.

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