Johnny Bananas Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 I've come to the conclusion that any disruption in a team's coaching staff (head coach or offensive coordinator) can have nothing but negative impact on skill position players for at least in the short term and perhaps longer. Viking fans remember the collapse of Culpepper after Scott Linehan left for Miami. Lamont Jordan tanked with a new coaching staff in Oakland. These are examples of lost seasons, but some players have had only temporary setbacks. Marc Bulger was quiet for the first month of the 2006 season and then exploded after he was more comfortable with the Linehan offense (or Linehan adjusted for his QB). In my mind the basic rule is this – veterans will recover from a coaching change quicker than younger players. If the veteran cannot reestablish himself after 6 games then he is a lost cause for the season. Young players become extremely high risk with new coaches. The hot rookie who looses his coaching staff will surely struggle in his second season because all the progress made in one system is lost. The less there is for a young player to have to learn about an offense, and the more time he can dedicate purely to developing skills, the quicker that player will reach consistent fantasy starter territory. Some examples to consider heading into 2007… Tony Romo – Wade Phillips is all about defense, so is Jason Garrett going to have to learn what it takes to be an offensive coordinator with Romo as his test case? Matt Leinert – Third new coach in three years (Carroll, Green, Whisenhunt) can’t be good for a young NFL QB’s progression. Also, Arizona seems poised to establish the run. Phillip Rivers – Turner will probably be good for Rivers in the long term, but the short term is going to be rough. Ben Roethlisberger – Delayed by last year’s accident, and now a major coaching change. Good luck with big Ben at least for the first half of 2007. Willie Parker – Could be seriously overvalued considering the coaching change and impact to Roethlisberger (balance is a good thing for an offense). Frank Gore – I think losing Norv Turner is huge here. Remember the last time Turner switched teams? Lamont Jordan is still wondering what the heck happened to 2006. Jerious Norwood – Can’t deny the kid has talent (6.4 yrds per carry!!), but it’s unknown what the coaching change will do to him. The zone blocking in Atlanta is going away. Larry Fitzgerald – Have to wonder about him given the coaching change and potential impact on Leinert. Braylon Edwards – Already behind the curve after injury in first season, and now he has to adjust to a change in the offensive that appears to be focused on Winslow. Vincent Jackson – Will probably be on a lot of sleeper lists, but the new coaching staff seems to have been hired to feed LT the ball even more. Where does that leave Jackson in yardage leagues (I assume he will be fine for TD leagues)? I’m not suggesting all of these players will tank in 2007. I’m simply saying that coaching changes will probably lead to at least slow starts for the first 4 to 6 games for these guys and others. And yes I believe that a few will actually be busts for the year. Consistency in a coaching staff is a great indicator of a player’s continued success. Find stability in coaching staffs and you will find fantasy gold. Just one more thing to consider when updating those cheat sheets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitzkek Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Frank Gore – I think losing Norv Turner is huge here. Remember the last time Turner switched teams? Lamont Jordan is still wondering what the heck happened to 2006. Man I hope you're wrong about this one. I've invested a lot in Gore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muggsy Posted February 21, 2007 Share Posted February 21, 2007 veterans will recover from a coaching change quicker than younger players. If the veteran cannot reestablish himself after 6 games then he is a lost cause for the season. Young players become extremely high risk with new coaches. The hot rookie who looses his coaching staff will surely struggle in his second season because all the progress made in one system is lost. The less there is for a young player to have to learn about an offense, and the more time he can dedicate purely to developing skills, the quicker that player will reach consistent fantasy starter territory. Going by this logic there would never be an impact rookie since EVERY rookie is joining a new coaching staff(as opposed to the one they had in college) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted February 21, 2007 Share Posted February 21, 2007 Frank Gore – I think losing Norv Turner is huge here. Remember the last time Turner switched teams? Lamont Jordan is still wondering what the heck happened to 2006. I think Gore will be fine. Especially when they sign Leonard Davis. I think you're missing the guy that will be impacted the most. Alex Smith. He took hugh strides from his rookie season, and I beleive thats Turners doing. Gore will be fine. Alex Smith will struggle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted February 21, 2007 Share Posted February 21, 2007 Tony Romo – I never beleived in Romo. I thinkhe'll be average at best. Matt Leinert – The better the run game, the better Leinart will be. He is a winner, and a leader. With Edge, Bolden and Fitz, he'll be fine. Phillip Rivers – Look what happened with Alex Smith before Turner and after Turner. Its not going to take long. Frank Gore – I think they improve there line and a weak conference spells big things for him. Jerious Norwood – I think he'll continue to be a great 3rd down back. Larry Fitzgerald – I think with the maturation of Leinart that things only get better in AZ Braylon Edwards – I dont think he's behind the curve, I just think his quarterback sucks. Vincent Jackson – Norv Turner uses the running game to establish a vertical passing game. All I can say is that I doubt Eric Parker or Keenen McCardell will be catching too many balls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Bananas Posted February 21, 2007 Author Share Posted February 21, 2007 Going by this logic there would never be an impact rookie since EVERY rookie is joining a new coaching staff(as opposed to the one they had in college) I meant a player after his first year in the league. Not a rookie fresh out of the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Bananas Posted February 21, 2007 Author Share Posted February 21, 2007 I think Gore will be fine. Especially when they sign Leonard Davis. I think you're missing the guy that will be impacted the most. Alex Smith. He took hugh strides from his rookie season, and I beleive thats Turners doing. Gore will be fine. Alex Smith will struggle. Yes, Alex Smith is a great example too. It also depends on who the Niners bring in to replace Turner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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