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Travis Henry, 2007 projection


Bronco Billy
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Since some hi-jacking has occurred on the Turner thread, I'll go ahead & start a projection thread here rather than continue over there.

 

Point in comparison: Travis Henry in his career (2001-2006) vs DEN featured RBs (2001-2006)

 

If we look at Henry over his career, it’s easy to see that he ran for teams much worse at rushing than DEN over that same time period. DEN has 18.5% more rushes, 30.7% more rushing yds, 10% more ypc, and 27.3% more rushing TDs than BUF & TEN over that time period. That includes DEN having 4 different #1 RBs over that span – Portis for 2 years, M Anderson for 2 years, R Droughns for 1 year, and T Bell for 1 year.

 

Now let’s look at a RB who was clearly a designated featured RB with DEN in that time span: Clinton Portis

 

Portis with DEN ran for 19.4 rushes/gm for 106.9 rushes per game, 5.50 ypc, and 1.0 rush TDs/game.

 

When Portis went to WAS, he went to a team that actually rushes better over the 3 years he was there than the 2 teams Henry has been with for his 6 years. WAS over 3 yrs vs BUF/TEN over 6 years:

 

495 rushes/yr vs 428 rushes/yr

2055 yds rush/yr vs 1760 yds rush/yr

4.15 ypc vs 4.11 ypc

11.33 rush TD/yr vs 12.83 rush TD/yr

 

Portis’ averages over 3 years with WAS are 21.1 rush/game for 86.0 rush yds/game, 4.08 ypc, and 0.590 rush TD/game – a significant drop from his DEN production. In fact, even though he had 8.7% more carries, his per game rushing yds dropped by 20.0%, his ypc dropped by 25.9%, and his per game rush TDs dropped by 41.0%.

 

Now look at Henry’s numbers when he was a featured RB for weaker rushing BUF & TEN over his 6 years (55 games) and we see 20.3 rushes per game for 85.1 rush yds/game, 4.20 ypc, and 0.582 rush TDs/game.

 

If you look at Henry’s numbers as a featured RB with BUF & TEN, they are remarkably similar to Portis’ numbers with WAS:

 

20.3 rush/game vs 21.1 rush/game

85.1 rush yds/game vs 86.0 rush yds/game

4.20 ypc vs 4.08 ypc

0.582 rush TD/game vs 0.590 rush TD/game

 

So, is we put all this data together, comparing DEN during 2001-2006 vs BUF/TEN during 2001-2006, and we look at BUF/TEN 2001-2006 vs WAS 2003-2006 when Portis has been there, as well as Portis’ success in DEN vs what happened to him when he went to WAS, and then compare Portis in WAS to Henry in BUF/TEN, we can see the following:

 

Portis’ production dropped significantly going from DEN to WAS, but he was still rushing with a better running team than Henry was with BUF/TEN. DEN had 11.8% more rushing yds, 9.16% better ypc, and 44.1% more rush TDs than WAS did with Portis. DEN also had 30.7% more rushing yds, 10.0% more ypc, and 27.3% more rush TDs than BUF/TEN over Henry’s stay.

 

So suppose we compare DEN vs WAS, and DEN vs BUF/TEN, and then we compare Portis w/ DEN vs Portis w/ WAS, and then take 75% of the projected increases to be conservative and allow for Portis to be a better RB than Henry, we get a projection of Henry’s production increasing by approximately 16.7%, his ypc increasing by 14.2%, and his rushing TDs increasing by 35.2%

 

So where does that leave Henry for the coming year, provided that we project a 16 game season and use his historical rush/rec numbers?

 

312 carries 1519 yds rushing, 4.87 ypc, and 13 rushing TDs

32 catches for 249 yds receiving and 0 TDs rec

 

344 total touches for 1768 total yds and 13 TDs

 

That would put Henry as the #6/#7 FF RB last season.

 

 

 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

 

Raw data:

 

Travis Henry, over his 6 years:

 

77 games 1321 rushes for 5395 yds, 4.08 ypc and 34 rush TDs

 

Travis Henry as a featured RB:

 

55 games 1114 rushes for 4679 yds, 4.20 ypc and 32 rush TDs

 

Teams Henry has played for over his 6 years (BUF for 4 yrs & TEN for 2 yrs):

 

428 rushes/yr 1760 yds rush/yr, 4.11 ypc 12.8 rush TD/yr

 

DEN over 6 years (Featuring Mike Anderson 2 yrs, Clinton Portis 2 yrs, Rueben Droughns 1 yr, and Tatum Bell 1 yr):

 

508 rushes/yr 2299 yds rush/yr, 4.53 ypc 16.3 rush TD/yr

 

DEN featured RB over 6 yrs:

 

77 games 1437 rushes for 6862 yds, 4.78 ypc and 52 rushing TDs

 

 

Clinton Portis with DEN:

 

29 games 563 rushes for 3099 rush yds, 5.50 ypc and 29 rush TDs

 

Clinton Portis with WAS:

 

39 games 822 rushes for 3354 rush yds, 4.08 ypc 23 rush TDs

 

WAS over 3 yrs w/ Portis:

 

495 rushes/yr 2055 yds rush/yr, 4.15 ypc 11.3 rush TD/yr

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In regard to Henry's suspension and potential future suspensions, Henry is about to graduate from the Stage 2 Treatment program, which he has complied with successfully for 2 years.

 

That means, per the NFLPA CBA, he returns to the status of a player who has never been referred to the intervention program by either behavior or by a positive test.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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In regard to Henry's suspension and potential future suspensions, Henry is about to graduate from the Stage 2 Treatment program, which he has complied with successfully for 2 years.

 

That means, per the NFLPA CBA, he returns to the status of a player who has never been referred to the intervention program by either behavior or by a positive test.

 

 

 

I think Shanny likes what he see's also, Billy. He knows that Henry is on par with what "his guys" did, pretty much. And he was on teams that had less than stellar O-lines. The only thing that will put him in the dog house is his tendency to fumble. Shanahan HATES that.

 

I can see 1500 yds and 15 Td's easy from Henry. And this is a middle of the road estimate. It gives Denver that feature back and settles down the position and this aids Cutler in that regard. Besides he can block, too.

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I believe this is wrong. If you have something that states otherwise, list the link to it.

 

After having Jamal Lewis on my beloved Ravens for so long, I did a lot of reading on this.

 

If you have one strike, you go into the program with zero notification. The second strike is mandatory 4 games. This is where Henry is I believe as he did serve a suspension, correct?

 

Now, the third strike is the part I believe you are confused about. If the third strike happens within a year, a mandatory 1 year suspension kicks in. Otherwise, a third strike results in a mandatory 6 month suspension.

I do not believe you can ever 'behave' yourself out of the program.

 

 

good info from other thread here....true dat.

 

I like Henry alot, and he could indeed be top-10 stuff, if all goes well. But so could Westbrook. And Parker. And Maroney. And Brown. And Bush. And Benson. And Addai. And Alexander. And Mcgahee. And Portis. And Caddy. And D. WIlliams. And Jacobs. And Jones.

 

There are so many middle RBs right now, its painful to try to rank them with any real accuracy.

 

Henry worries me, for no other reason, than he plays for Shanahan, who could pull the plug on his "full-time" duties at any time. Mike Bell impressed the hell out of them last year, and with a year under his belt, I still think he is in the mix. Its Henry's job to lose, for sure though.

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Suspension issued is addressed in the Turner thread in a response to Big Red.

 

Didn't address if he was on any extensions to the 24 month rule. Are you just adding up the months and hoping for the best?

 

We won't know about extensions until Henry gets nailed for a 3rd time. I'd bet something as simple as being at the wrong party or being a known drinker can be grounds for an extension (at the discretion of the medical staff).

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Didn't address if he was on any extensions to the 24 month rule. Are you just adding up the months and hoping for the best?

 

We won't know about extensions until Henry gets nailed for a 3rd time. I'd bet something as simple as being at the wrong party or being a known drinker can be grounds for an extension (at the discretion of the medical staff).

 

 

No, it was in a DEN newspaper article that he was about to graduate from the program. I believe that any extensions are made public, just like going to Stage 2.

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Your manlove for Travis Henry is cute.

 

Your complete ignorance of his inability to play a full-season is alarming.

 

 

Well, since you're so alarmed about a future injury that you're so sure will happen, why don't you alleviate the suspense & let us all know what that injury is going to be.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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good info from other thread here....true dat.

 

I like Henry alot, and he could indeed be top-10 stuff, if all goes well. But so could Westbrook. And Parker. And Maroney. And Brown. And Bush. And Benson. And Addai. And Alexander. And Mcgahee. And Portis. And Caddy. And D. WIlliams. And Jacobs. And Jones.

 

There are so many middle RBs right now, its painful to try to rank them with any real accuracy.

 

Henry worries me, for no other reason, than he plays for Shanahan, who could pull the plug on his "full-time" duties at any time. Mike Bell impressed the hell out of them last year, and with a year under his belt, I still think he is in the mix. Its Henry's job to lose, for sure though.

 

 

there is a way to break these players down into categories rather than rankings...

 

I would rank them like this...right now with PPR performance scoring...

 

 

Portis

Addai

Westy

Henry

Bush

TJones

Parker

Maroney

Brown

Alexander

Benson

Jacobs

McGahee

DWilliams

Caddy

 

it's rough...but off the top...this is how I rank em...

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:D

 

Hard to envision as scenario where Travis Henry finishes ranked above all those you mention.

 

I mean, couldn't the same argument being made here for Travis Henry be used for Benson (did I really write that?). If you add-up the production the Bears rushing attack produced last year, and give it 80% of it to Benson, I am sure that would warrant a Top-10 ranking.

 

And SA back, a season removed from his injury?

 

And Mcgahee finally playing with a decent QB?

 

And Brown, who was on pace prior to breaking his hand for a Top-10 year?

 

And Parker, who produced 1500 yards last year has nothing to prove....

 

And Jacobs, who Bronco himself has said will be Top-10....

 

Hard to envision Henry, playing for Shananigan, will top all of the above.

 

1300 yards, 10 TDs....Top 12-15. A solid #2 RB in fantasy. He could end up being a gem for someone....but not me, unless I am picking him in the 2nd round.

Edited by i_am_the_swammi
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:D

 

Hard to envision as scenario where Travis Henry finishes ranked above all those you mention.

 

I mean, couldn't the same argument being made here for Travis Henry be used for Benson (did I really write that?). If you add-up the production the Bears rushing attack produced last year, and give it 80% of it to Benson, I am sure that would warrant a Top-10 ranking.

 

And SA back, a season removed from his injury?

 

And Mcgahee finally playing with a decent QB?

 

And Brown, who was on pace prior to breaking his hand for a Top-10 year?

 

And Parker, who produced 1500 yards last year has nothing to prove....

 

And Jacobs, who Bronco himself has said will be Top-10....

 

Hard to envision Henry, playing for Shananigan, will top all of the above.

 

1300 yards, 10 TDs....Top 12-15. A solid #2 RB in fantasy. He could end up being a gem for someone....but not me, unless I am picking him in the 2nd round.

 

 

 

Of these guys you mention Alexander and Brown IMO are the only 2 that can be picked ahead of Henry. and I am not even sure about them.

 

You say it is hard to see Henry doing well playing for Shanny like Shanny has not made many 1000 backs. IMO him playing for Shanny is WHY you should draft him high.

 

I think we seen Parkers career year last year. I predict he ruins a many fantasy teams this upcoming year. they cannot possibly go through another season using only him. they need someone who can push the pile.

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Well, since you're so alarmed about a future injury that you're so sure will happen, why don't you alleviate the suspense & let us all know what that injury is going to be.

 

 

My guess is foot, ankle, knee, or leg. Considering he's missed time in each of the last four seasons for various ailments with these body parts.

 

I have Henry in a dynasty league. I'm tickled pink that he's playing in Denver. However you cannot ignore the fact that he had more carries in 2006 than he had in 2004 and 2005 COMBINED. I don't see how you can do an in-depth player evaluation with nary a mention of the possibility that 2006 was an aberration.

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1300 yards, 10 TDs....Top 12-15. A solid #2 RB in fantasy. He could end up being a gem for someone....but not me, unless I am picking him in the 2nd round.

 

 

I think a happy medium between this and some of the more optimistic projections is where I'm at. 1500ish and around 13 total TDs seems likely. Picks 6-18 seem to be a fairly risky proposition in the last few years; assuming they are RB's; not many Tier 1 or 2 RBs are a guarantee to perform for the draft value. Henry actually seems less risky then a lot of the guys that have dissapointed in recent years (McGahee, Williams, Jordan...etc,).

 

The Broncos paid him too much money to start playing Shannigan's mystery RBBC that we've seen the last 2 years. Denver is one of those teams that is in contention every year, and I think they are looking at Henry to carry the rock for 2-3 years. His injury history gives me a bit of concern.

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I think we seen Parkers career year last year. I predict he ruins a many fantasy teams this upcoming year. they cannot possibly go through another season using only him. they need someone who can push the pile.

 

 

Hmmm possible. Parker showed me a ton last year, as I was expecting a more boom or bust type of output, and while he did struggle against some of the better defenses, he seemed quite consistent otherwise. Despite his less than dominating physcial stature and lack of awesome athletic ability, he still averaged around 20 carries per game and I don't seem to remember him taking a huge physcial beating. He also added a few receiving TDs and couple catches per game (which is always a bonus for PPR leagues).

 

I don't think anyone would argue he is the best short yardage guy. Didn't Pittsburgh re-sign poop in the laundry basket guy for their short yardage specialist? Maybe Parker's numbers go down if Pittsburgh is half-decent next year and they use Davenport to grind out a win by running down the clock.

 

At the present, I see no reason to not project Parker as a good #2 RB next year.

Edited by bushwacked
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Of these guys you mention Alexander and Brown IMO are the only 2 that can be picked ahead of Henry. and I am not even sure about them.

 

You say it is hard to see Henry doing well playing for Shanny like Shanny has not made many 1000 backs. IMO him playing for Shanny is WHY you should draft him high.

 

I think we seen Parkers career year last year. I predict he ruins a many fantasy teams this upcoming year. they cannot possibly go through another season using only him. they need someone who can push the pile.

 

 

I don't even really like Parker over some of the players I mentioned....I put him there because he has shown he can handle some sort of a load and can make plays....until the season wears down...

 

Maroney, for one should be drafted higher...

 

all henry needs is for Cutler to be as good as Plummer or better for him to have somewhere around 1400 yds if he plays all season...

 

and the thing about Henry that I love/hate is he plays through injuries for as long as possible which hurts his performances....

 

but I'll still draft him this year and try to trade him if I get nervous...

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