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NFL Schedule Analysis


Steeltown Dre
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Based on opponent win percentages.

 

Here are the teams whose schedules got easier this year:

 

1 Buccaneers ( # 4 hardest schedule in 06 and # 27 hardest in 07)

2 Saints ( # 3 hardest schedule in 06 and # 25 hardest in 07)

3 Giants ( # 2 hardest schedule in 06 and # 22 hardest in 07)

4 Cardinals ( # 19 hardest schedule in 06 and # 32 hardest in 07)

5 Rams ( # 15 hardest schedule in 06 and # 28 hardest in 07)

6 Falcons ( # 16 hardest schedule in 06 and # 29 hardest in 07)

7 Bengals ( # 1 hardest schedule in 06 and # 11 hardest in 07)

8 Panthers ( # 17 hardest schedule in 06 and # 26 hardest in 07)

9 Eagles ( # 10 hardest schedule in 06 and # 20 hardest in 07)

10 Texans ( # 9 hardest schedule in 06 and # 16 hardest in 07)

11 Steelers ( # 5 hardest schedule in 06 and # 10 hardest in 07)

12 Redskins ( # 12 hardest schedule in 06 and # 18 hardest in 07)

13 Ravens ( # 8 hardest schedule in 06 and # 12 hardest in 07)

14 Broncos ( # 13 hardest schedule in 06 and # 14 hardest in 07)

15 Chiefs ( # 6 hardest schedule in 06 and # 7 hardest in 07)

16 Cowboys ( # 18 hardest schedule in 06 and # 21 hardest in 07)

17 49ers ( # 23 hardest schedule in 06 and # 30 hardest in 07)

 

Here are the teams whose schedules got harder:

 

1 Patriots ( # 26 hardest schedule in 06 and # 3 hardest in 07)

2 Bills ( # 24 hardest schedule in 06 and # 2 hardest in 07)

3 Jets ( # 28 hardest schedule in 06 and # 8 hardest in 07)

4 Dolphins ( # 27 hardest schedule in 06 and # 9 hardest in 07)

5 Vikings ( # 29 hardest schedule in 06 and # 19 hardest in 07)

6 Packers ( # 31 hardest schedule in 06 and # 23 hardest in 07)

7 Jaguars ( # 21 hardest schedule in 06 and # 4 hardest in 07)

8 Colts ( # 22 hardest schedule in 06 and # 6 hardest in 07)

9 Lions ( # 25 hardest schedule in 06 and # 15 hardest in 07)

10 Seahawks ( # 30 hardest schedule in 06 and # 24 hardest in 07)

11 Raiders ( # 11 hardest schedule in 06 and # 1 hardest in 07)

12 Bears ( # 32 hardest schedule in 06 and # 31 hardest in 07)

13 Chargers ( # 20 hardest schedule in 06 and # 17 hardest in 07)

14 Browns ( # 14 hardest schedule in 06 and # 13 hardest in 07)

15 Titans ( # 7 hardest schedule in 06 and # 5 hardest in 07)

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Just as FYI,

 

Here were the schedules from 2006 based on 2005 opponent win % (#1 is hardest):

 

1 Bengals 0.543

2 Giants 0.543

3 Saints 0.539

4 Buccaneers 0.539

5 Steelers 0.531

6 Chiefs 0.527

7 Titans 0.527

8 Ravens 0.523

9 Texans 0.523

10 Eagles 0.52

11 Raiders 0.516

12 Redskins 0.516

13 Broncos 0.516

14 Browns 0.512

15 Rams 0.508

16 Falcons 0.508

17 Panthers 0.504

18 Cowboys 0.504

19 Cardinals 0.5

20 Chargers 0.488

21 Jaguars 0.488

22 Colts 0.484

23 49ers 0.477

24 Bills 0.477

25 Lions 0.473

26 Patriots 0.473

27 Dolphins 0.469

28 Jets 0.465

29 Vikings 0.457

30 Seahawks 0.457

31 Packers 0.449

32 Bears 0.445

 

And here is the 2007 based on 2006 opponent win % (#1 is hardest):

 

1 Raiders 0.539

2 Bills 0.539

3 Patriots 0.535

4 Jaguars 0.527

5 Titans 0.52

6 Colts 0.516

7 Chiefs 0.516

8 Jets 0.516

9 Dolphins 0.512

10 Steelers 0.512

11 Bengals 0.512

12 Ravens 0.508

13 Browns 0.508

14 Broncos 0.504

15 Lions 0.504

16 Texans 0.504

17 Chargers 0.504

18 Redskins 0.5

19 Vikings 0.5

20 Eagles 0.5

21 Cowboys 0.496

22 Giants 0.496

23 Packers 0.492

24 Seahawks 0.488

25 Saints 0.484

26 Panthers 0.477

27 Buccaneers 0.473

28 Rams 0.473

29 Falcons 0.473

30 49ers 0.469

31 Bears 0.465

32 Cardinals 0.461

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31 Bears 0.465

 

Don't get me wrong, because I'm thrilled at this ranking after making the Super Bowl but this means that the Vikes, Lions and Packers really really, I mean REALLY, blow correct?

:D

 

 

The Bears opponents are a combined 119 - 137.

 

The reason their schedule looks much easier is they play the Lions (3-13) and the Raiders (2-14). The Lions had the worst record in the NFC, and the Raiders had the worst record in the AFC.

 

See, last year they played the NFC West and the AFC East.

 

In 2005 both of those divisions went 28-36 as a division.

 

This year Chicago plays the NFC East and the AFC West.

 

In 2006 the NFC East went 32-32 and the AFC West went 34-30.

 

The reason their SOS is #31 is because like you guessed, they play 6 games against divisional teams, which adds W-L records of: 34-62 to their chart.

 

So aside from their divisional games, their opponents W-L is 85-75.

 

And take out the 2-14 raiders and you have 83-61 = 58%

 

Which should be tough. So while your divisional games and the Raiders game should pad the schedule, the rest of your schedule will be definitely tougher than last year.

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Of course, just because a team has a hard schedule, does not mean they are going to do badly this year.

 

Look at 2006. Here are the top 10 teams in terms of tough schedules, and here is how their records looked at the end of the year:

 

#1 Hardest schedule = Bengals. Ended the season 8-8

#2 Hardest schedule = Giants. Ended the season 8-8

#3 Hardest schedule = Saints. Ended the season 10-6

#4 Hardest schedule = Buccaneers. Ended the season 4-12

#5 Hardest schedule = Steelers. Ended the season 8-8

#6 Hardest schedule = Chiefs. Ended the season 9-7

#7 Hardest schedule = Titans. Ended the season 8-8

#8 Hardest schedule = Ravens. Ended the season 13-3

#9 Hardest schedule = Texans. Ended the season 6-10

#10 Hardest schedule = Eagles. Ended the season 10-6

 

Their combined record was 84-76 for 52.5%

 

Now look at the top 10 Easiest schedules for 2006 and how those teams ended up:

 

#1 Easiest schedule = Bears. Ended the season 13-3

#2 Easiest schedule = Packers. Ended the season 8-8

#3 Easiest schedule = Seahawks. Ended the season 9-7

#4 Easiest schedule = Vikings. Ended the season 6-10

#5 Easiest schedule = Jets. Ended the season 10-6

#6 Easiest schedule = Dolphins. Ended the season 6-10

#7 Easiest schedule = Patriots. Ended the season 12-4

#8 Easiest schedule = Lions. Ended the season 3-13

#9 Easiest schedule = Bills. Ended the season 7-9

#10 Easiest schedule = 49ers. Ended the season 7-9

 

Their combined record was 81-79 for 50.6%

 

So the teams with the hardest schedules ended up doing better than the teams with the easiest schedules.

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Just as FYI,

 

Here were the schedules from 2006 based on 2005 opponent win % (#1 is hardest):

 

1 Bengals 0.543

2 Giants 0.543

3 Saints 0.539

4 Buccaneers 0.539

5 Steelers 0.531

6 Chiefs 0.527

7 Titans 0.527

8 Ravens 0.523

9 Texans 0.523

10 Eagles 0.52

11 Raiders 0.516

12 Redskins 0.516

13 Broncos 0.516

14 Browns 0.512

15 Rams 0.508

16 Falcons 0.508

17 Panthers 0.504

18 Cowboys 0.504

19 Cardinals 0.5

20 Chargers 0.488

21 Jaguars 0.488

22 Colts 0.484

23 49ers 0.477

24 Bills 0.477

25 Lions 0.473

26 Patriots 0.473

27 Dolphins 0.469

28 Jets 0.465

29 Vikings 0.457

30 Seahawks 0.457

31 Packers 0.449

32 Bears 0.445

 

And here is the 2007 based on 2006 opponent win % (#1 is hardest):

 

1 Raiders 0.539

2 Bills 0.539

3 Patriots 0.535

4 Jaguars 0.527

5 Titans 0.52

6 Colts 0.516

7 Chiefs 0.516

8 Jets 0.516

9 Dolphins 0.512

10 Steelers 0.512

11 Bengals 0.512

12 Ravens 0.508

13 Browns 0.508

14 Broncos 0.504

15 Lions 0.504

16 Texans 0.504

17 Chargers 0.504

18 Redskins 0.5

19 Vikings 0.5

20 Eagles 0.5

21 Cowboys 0.496

22 Giants 0.496

23 Packers 0.492

24 Seahawks 0.488

25 Saints 0.484

26 Panthers 0.477

27 Buccaneers 0.473

28 Rams 0.473

29 Falcons 0.473

30 49ers 0.469

31 Bears 0.465

32 Cardinals 0.461

 

 

great data, do you have a link?

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Of course, just because a team has a hard schedule, does not mean they are going to do badly this year.

 

Look at 2006. Here are the top 10 teams in terms of tough schedules, and here is how their records looked at the end of the year:

 

#1 Hardest schedule = Bengals. Ended the season 8-8

#2 Hardest schedule = Giants. Ended the season 8-8

#3 Hardest schedule = Saints. Ended the season 10-6

#4 Hardest schedule = Buccaneers. Ended the season 4-12

#5 Hardest schedule = Steelers. Ended the season 8-8

#6 Hardest schedule = Chiefs. Ended the season 9-7

#7 Hardest schedule = Titans. Ended the season 8-8

#8 Hardest schedule = Ravens. Ended the season 13-3

#9 Hardest schedule = Texans. Ended the season 6-10

#10 Hardest schedule = Eagles. Ended the season 10-6

 

Their combined record was 84-76 for 52.5%

 

Now look at the top 10 Easiest schedules for 2006 and how those teams ended up:

 

#1 Easiest schedule = Bears. Ended the season 13-3

#2 Easiest schedule = Packers. Ended the season 8-8

#3 Easiest schedule = Seahawks. Ended the season 9-7

#4 Easiest schedule = Vikings. Ended the season 6-10

#5 Easiest schedule = Jets. Ended the season 10-6

#6 Easiest schedule = Dolphins. Ended the season 6-10

#7 Easiest schedule = Patriots. Ended the season 12-4

#8 Easiest schedule = Lions. Ended the season 3-13

#9 Easiest schedule = Bills. Ended the season 7-9

#10 Easiest schedule = 49ers. Ended the season 7-9

 

Their combined record was 81-79 for 50.6%

 

So the teams with the hardest schedules ended up doing better than the teams with the easiest schedules.

 

 

 

good analysis. that would be expected because the better teams should have the harder schedules.

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good analysis. that would be expected because the better teams should have the harder schedules.

 

 

There are only 2 games out of 16 that are scheduled based on prior season finish.

 

You have 6 games that are against your division.

 

You have 4 games against a division in the NFC and 4 games against a division in the AFC.

 

Those games are set well into the future.

 

You can go here and see thru 2009 who your team will play:

 

http://www.johnnyroadtrip.com/schedules/nfl_future_nfcn.htm

 

For instance (not my team but) the Bears play NFC East and AFC West this year. Next year they play NFC South and AFC South. In 2009 they play NFC West and AFC North.

 

So that is 14 of the 16 games right there, pre-determined, no matter how good or bad you are the prior season.

 

The only games that matter are 2 games.

 

This year the NFC North plays 1 team from the NFC South and 1 team from the NFC West. And the teams they play finished the same spot as the they did in the NFC North last year.

 

Therefore, the Bears play first place finishers Saints and Seahawks.

 

Likewise, the last placed Lions play last place finishers Bucs and Cardinals.

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Wouldn't a better measure of schedule difficulty for the 2006 season be to use the records of the teams from that season?

 

 

If you wanted to look back on the 2006 season perhaps. But if we want to look ahead at the 2007 season, the only thing we can look at is back at the 2006 season.

 

And for a proper comparison to be made, you then look at the 2005 season to evaluate how hard a schedule is at the start of the 2006 season.

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There are only 2 games out of 16 that are scheduled based on prior season finish.

 

You have 6 games that are against your division.

 

You have 4 games against a division in the NFC and 4 games against a division in the AFC.

 

Those games are set well into the future.

 

You can go here and see thru 2009 who your team will play:

 

http://www.johnnyroadtrip.com/schedules/nfl_future_nfcn.htm

 

For instance (not my team but) the Bears play NFC East and AFC West this year. Next year they play NFC South and AFC South. In 2009 they play NFC West and AFC North.

 

So that is 14 of the 16 games right there, pre-determined, no matter how good or bad you are the prior season.

 

The only games that matter are 2 games.

 

This year the NFC North plays 1 team from the NFC South and 1 team from the NFC West. And the teams they play finished the same spot as the they did in the NFC North last year.

 

Therefore, the Bears play first place finishers Saints and Seahawks.

 

Likewise, the last placed Lions play last place finishers Bucs and Cardinals.

 

Add to that the 2 non-predetermined games will balance your schedule so you will have exactally 4 games against teams in each of the 4 divisional places.

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If you wanted to look back on the 2006 season perhaps. But if we want to look ahead at the 2007 season, the only thing we can look at is back at the 2006 season.

 

And for a proper comparison to be made, you then look at the 2005 season to evaluate how hard a schedule is at the start of the 2006 season.

 

 

 

I understand that last season is the only measuring stick we have at this moment...I was just saying that onece the games are played, the previous season becomes kind of irrelevant :D

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Those 2 games really swing things for in-division teams - the division winner plays two teams that are around .600 to .700 while the last place team plays two teams that are .300 (or worse).

 

But comparisons outside the division are more just about division strength and how the rotation lines up - a team taht is the class of a weak division, and get's matched up with another weak division in it's conf plus the weakest in the other conf, will (even with the two tough games) still have an easy sched. (chicago kindof - but they are matched up with the NFC East - if instead they had been matched up with the NFC W, they'd have a cakewalk)

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Doesn't it stand to reason that the suckier teams from last year have a better shot at having a harder schedule because they are one of the weak teams that the easy schedule teams rely on?

 

 

Did that make any sense? :D

Edited by TDFFFreak
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Doesn't it stand to reason that the suckier teams from last year have a better shot at having a harder schedule because they are one of the weak teams that the easy schedule teams rely on?

Did that make any sense? :D

 

 

Not really. Teams change so much from year to year you cant really base it on anything anymore. Look at the Bucs 2 years ago... They win the division, and people think theyll be good again. They won 4 games last year. Now they supposedly have an easier schedule... Will they take advantage of it? Me thinks this will be Grudens farewell year.

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Now they supposedly have an easier schedule... Will they take advantage of it? Me thinks this will be Grudens farewell year.

 

 

Me thinks they will win more than 4 games this season.....Also remember, losing your QB in the third week of the season and then starting a 6th round rookie from Toledo usually means you will have a bad season. Look for the Bucs to rebound this year and atleast contend for a playoff spot.

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Just as FYI,

 

Here were the schedules from 2006 based on 2005 opponent win % (#1 is hardest):

 

1 Bengals 0.543

5 Steelers 0.531

8 Ravens 0.523

14 Browns 0.512

 

CLEARLY the AFC North is the hardest/best division. With 6 of 16 games within the division, only a tough gruop produces that may tough schedules.

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Wouldn't a better measure of schedule difficulty for the 2006 season be to use the records of the teams from that season?

 

 

Thats a great question, and probably the most relevant in this discussion.

 

Its much more relevant to evaluate who had the toughest schedule in 2006 using the 2006 final records, rather than base it on 2005 results.

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