Steeltown Dre Posted April 13, 2007 Author Share Posted April 13, 2007 (edited) Due to demand, here is the 2006 strength of schedule based on 2006 results (winning %) 1 BUF (7-9) 0.574 2 TEN (8-8) 0.570 3 OAK (2-14) 0.555 4 MIA (6-10) 0.543 5 CIN (8-8) 0.535 6 CLE (4-12) 0.535 7 TB (4-12) 0.535 8 DEN (9-7) 0.531 9 JAC (8-8) 0.531 10 DET (3-13) 0.523 11 NYG (8-8) 0.520 12 WAS (5-11) 0.512 13 HOU (6-10) 0.504 14 ARI (5-11) 0.500 15 GB (8-8) 0.500 16 IND (12-4) 0.500 17 SF (7-9) 0.500 18 NE (12-4) 0.496 19 PIT (8-8) 0.496 20 KC (9-7) 0.492 21 MIN (6-10) 0.488 22 PHI (10-6) 0.477 23 CAR (8-8) 0.473 24 NYJ (10-6) 0.469 25 STL (8-8) 0.465 26 BAL (13-3) 0.461 27 NO (10-6) 0.461 28 ATL (7-9) 0.457 29 DAL (9-7) 0.457 30 SD (14-2) 0.457 31 SEA (9-7) 0.453 32 CHI (13-3) 0.430 In essense you have teams who won most of their games at the bottom. The reason is, that their opponents win % is going to include the losses suffered at their hands. Meanwhile, you have the worst teams near the top (in difficulty of schedule), because they lost most of their games, and therefore their opponents won those games. So while it looks like teams Buf and Oak had a brutal schedule, the reality is they lost more of their games, and so their opponents will have more wins than losses. To illustrate: The only 2 teams who had a winning record who faced teams who were collectively over .500 were Den and Indy. And the only 2 teams who had a losing record despite facing teams less than .500 were MIN and ATL. I can see this as a stand-alone analysis. I wouldn't use this to compare to the 2007 schedule, since it's not an apples-apples comparison. If you want to determine how a team's 2007 schedule compares to their 2006 schedule, you are first going to determine the SOS of the 2007 schedule. To do that, no argument - you have use 2006 results end of season results (winning %). No real other way, since 2007 games have not been played yet. So to complete the second part (determining the SOS of the 2006 schedule), you have to do it the same way you did the 2007 schedule to get a real apples-apples comparison... you have to use 2005 results. You could retroactively compare the 2006 schedule to the 2005 schedule using the 2006 results and the 2005 results if you want to. But to look ahead to 2007, you have to use the 2006 schedule. So if you are already using the 2006 schedule to determine 2007 SOS, you also can't use the 2006 schedule to determine 2006 SOS. It won't line up right. Of course, this is one man's opinion... Edited April 13, 2007 by Steeltown Dre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted April 13, 2007 Author Share Posted April 13, 2007 For the numbers above, the winning percentage comes from here: BUF Opponent wins = 147; Opponent Losses = 109 TEN Opponent wins = 146; Opponent Losses = 110 OAK Opponent wins = 142; Opponent Losses = 114 MIA Opponent wins = 139; Opponent Losses = 117 CIN Opponent wins = 137; Opponent Losses = 119 CLE Opponent wins = 137; Opponent Losses = 119 TB Opponent wins = 137; Opponent Losses = 119 DEN Opponent wins = 136; Opponent Losses = 120 JAC Opponent wins = 136; Opponent Losses = 120 DET Opponent wins = 134; Opponent Losses = 122 NYG Opponent wins = 133; Opponent Losses = 123 WAS Opponent wins = 131; Opponent Losses = 125 HOU Opponent wins = 129; Opponent Losses = 127 ARI Opponent wins = 128; Opponent Losses = 128 GB Opponent wins = 128; Opponent Losses = 128 IND Opponent wins = 128; Opponent Losses = 128 SF Opponent wins = 128; Opponent Losses = 128 NE Opponent wins = 127; Opponent Losses = 129 PIT Opponent wins = 127; Opponent Losses = 129 KC Opponent wins = 126; Opponent Losses = 130 MIN Opponent wins = 125; Opponent Losses = 131 PHI Opponent wins = 122; Opponent Losses = 134 CAR Opponent wins = 121; Opponent Losses = 135 NYJ Opponent wins = 120; Opponent Losses = 136 STL Opponent wins = 119; Opponent Losses = 137 BAL Opponent wins = 118; Opponent Losses = 138 NO Opponent wins = 118; Opponent Losses = 138 ATL Opponent wins = 117; Opponent Losses = 139 DAL Opponent wins = 117; Opponent Losses = 139 SD Opponent wins = 117; Opponent Losses = 139 SEA Opponent wins = 116; Opponent Losses = 140 CHI Opponent wins = 110; Opponent Losses = 146 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Great stuff, Dre!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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