Does anyone have statistics on % of players that "bust" by round?

[Fatman]

Long winded, so bear with me if you care:

 

I'm having a discussion with a buddy about the decision to draft a QB in the first round. He contends that because QBs tend to "bust" more than any other position, teams would be smarter to draft other positions early and try to hit on a QB later - ala Brady, Bulger, etc. He says that why draft a QB in the first round when you can get a viable starter later in the draft, throught FA, trade, etc. He's quoting an ESPN article that says:

 

First-Round Bust Percentages

QB -- 53 percent

RB -- 49 percent

WR -- 45 percent

DT -- 33 percent

OL -- 31 percent

DE -- 31 percent

CB -- 29 percent

LB -- 16 percent

S -- 11 percent

 

With "bust" being:

We've set the bar at 80 games played in the league, plus a positive TD/INT ratio. Obviously, a Pro Bowl appearance or Super Bowl win (see Trent Dilfer) will help us overlook transgressions in other areas. And for recently drafted players, we'll use a combination of stats accrued to this point and gut feelings about the player.

 

I found an article that says:

 

From ESPN:

 

6. If you need a franchise quarterback, get him in the first round or forget about it

It's not quite that cut-and-dried, but it's closer than one might think. Quarterbacks are the toughest players to project in terms of pro potential. No position has as many variables (system, supporting cast, level of competition, etc.) or as much of a premium put on intangibles (leadership, mental toughness, competitiveness, etc.). It also doesn't help that quarterbacks typically are drafted higher than their value because of the importance of the position.

 

The ones taken near the top of the draft often are thrown into the fire prematurely and expected to deliver unreasonable results, especially considering the marginal supporting cast that landed the team a top-10 draft pick in the first place.

 

Add it all up and it's no wonder the quarterback position has delivered some epic busts -- Heath Shuler (Redskins) in 1994; Jim Druckenmiller (49ers) in 1997; Ryan Leaf (Chargers) in 1998; Akili Smith (Bengals), Cade McNown (Bears) and Tim Couch (Browns) in 1999; Joey Harrington (Lions) in 2002; and Kyle Boller (Ravens) in 2003.

 

Unfortunately, studies show that the majority of NFL starting quarterbacks are found in Round 1. Of the 32 NFL starters in 2006, nearly 60 percent were first-round draft choices. Sure, an occasional star is born from the later rounds, but for every Tom Brady, Jake Delhomme and Tony Romo, there are a hundred Gibran Hamdans, Tony Grazianis and Kerry Josephs trying to earn a paycheck from NFL Europa, the Arena League and the Canadian Football League.

 

My contention is that yes, while QBs may tend to bust more, the majority of the starters in the league are still supplied through first round picks. Given how difficult it is to select a QB for the reasons above, your best shot at success would seem to be to try in the first round. Your odds of success can only go down as the draft goes on because later round picks, on the whole, tend to flame out more than early round picks.

 

1. Any opinions here?

2. Does anyone have statistics of % of players that don't "bust" or make it on an NFL roster by round drafted?

 

Thanks in advance...

Edited May 4, 2007 by Fatman