Is FF getting more competitive?

[Azazello1313]

i would say skill in FF used to be determined by who had the most/best info. but in this age of info overload, i think the skill aspect has become more nuanced, and largely consists of the ability to wade through positive and negative hype, and to be just that one little half-step ahead of everyone else.

[yo mama]

Yes, FF involves a lot of luck. It also involves chance. And I think too many people gloss over the difference between the two. Chance involves data-based probabilities that can be estimated and forecasted for the purpose of performing educated guesses and cost/benefit analysis. A lot of FF success is based on spoting emerging trends and capitalizing on that. For example, just looking at end of year stats, some people might think an early waiver wire pick up of a guy like Mike Furrey last year was "lucky." But people who were paying attention would have noticed that he was tied with the 9th most receptions of all WRs at the end of week 2, had been targeted 14 times, and that translated into beautiful 78.57% reception ratio. While his year-end success was no lock, those early numbers pointed in the right direction. That's not "luck."

 

Ladell Betts needed a sustained injury to Portis in order to accumlate his impressive stats. That kind of injury-related opportunity *is* luck.

Edited May 21, 2007 by yo mama

[PantherDave]

It's prep, luck and skill still but with so many more people playing FF, Lady Luck get's spread pretty thin. It still basically boils down to landing "The Stud" that year and riding him to the Title and $.

[PantherDave]

...or you catch that "Lightning in the Bottle" like Buerlien and Jeffers that one year-some rode that to the $

[Avernus]

i would say skill in FF used to be determined by who had the most/best info. but in this age of info overload, i think the skill aspect has become more nuanced, and largely consists of the ability to wade through positive and negative hype, and to be just that one little half-step ahead of everyone else.

 

exactly...and also the ability to tell when a player is done or has little left in the tank...

 

you'll always have that player who comes back strong out of the woodworks (ala Curtis Martin in 2004)..but sticking to this gameplan helps Josh Gordon out the players with alot of miles...

[Avernus]

Yes, FF involves a lot of luck. It also involves chance. And I think too many people gloss over the difference between the two. Chance involves data-based probabilities that can be estimated and forecasted for the purpose of performing educated guesses and cost/benefit analysis. A lot of FF success is based on spoting emerging trends and capitalizing on that. For example, just looking at end of year stats, some people might think an early waiver wire pick up of a guy like Mike Furrey last year was "lucky." But people who were paying attention would have noticed that he was tied with the 9th most receptions of all WRs at the end of week 2, had been targeted 14 times, and that translated into beautiful 78.57% reception ratio. While his year-end success was no lock, those early numbers pointed in the right direction. That's not "luck."

 

Ladell Betts needed a sustained injury to Portis in order to accumlate his impressive stats. That kind of injury-related opportunity *is* luck.

 

and on top of that, Betts didn't get hurt like he has been known to do...

 

maybe he juiced up during his contract year to recover from injuries faster? ...who knows, but I am surely staying away from him unless I can get him late...

[Thews40]

My first draft was with a bunch of newbies and one guy that had played since it was done with newspapers. Can you imagine that… waiting for the paper the next day to hand calculate it all? I pulled a cheatsheet (they sucked 10 years ago) off the web 10 minutes before the draft. Jason Elam went in the first round… we still give my friend shat about taking us to the cleaners that year, but it’s my main league now.

 

Fantasy Football just made the turn from geek to cool in the last couple of years. Even the announcers acknowledge it now, when in years past they'd slam it. Now, the trick is knowing how the draft is going to go and predicting it. All the cheetsheets are basically the same for the top 6, and each draft tends to wind up the same. In round 13, I’ll take a WR I know very little about because he’s the next one on the list and iI like the team. Always hoping for that dark horse to fall to you, and then someone picks it away from you two rounds before he was supposed to go… that’s what’s changed.