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Current ADP - QBs


Bronco Billy
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The top 30 QBs as listed by mfl.com in 90 non-keeper drafts, give or take, so far this year:

 

# Player Avg. Pick

 

1 Manning, Peyton IND QB 12.27

2 Palmer, Carson CIN QB 25.84

3 Brees, Drew NOS QB 32.66

4 Brady, Tom NEP QB 34.59

5 Young, Vince TEN QB 47.92

6 Bulger, Marc STL QB 48.48

7 McNabb, Donovan PHI QB 54.27

8 Leinart, Matt ARI QB 65.08

9 Rivers, Philip SDC QB 73.49

10 Vick, Michael ATL QB 74.33

11 Cutler, Jay DEN QB 80.81

12 Romo, Tony DAL QB 82.39

13 Manning, Eli NYG QB 88.45

14 Hasselbeck, Matt SEA QB 91.16

15 Kitna, Jon DET QB 97.49

16 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 102.95

17 Smith, Alex SFO QB 116.61

18 Schaub, Matt HOU QB 125.63

19 Favre, Brett GBP QB 132.43

20 Russell, JaMarcus OAK QB 137.98

21 Delhomme, Jake CAR QB 143.08

22 Losman, J.P. BUF QB 143.61

23 Pennington, Chad NYJ QB 145.74

24 Campbell, Jason WAS QB 146.11

25 Quinn, Brady CLE QB 152.11

26 Grossman, Rex CHI QB 159.34

27 Leftwich, Byron JAC QB 164.12

28 Jackson, Tarvaris MIN QB 170.96

29 McNair, Steve BAL QB 179.44

30 Green, Trent MIA QB 198.04

 

Where do we see the greatest movement by the end of August/beginning of September? Trent Green is a pretty obvious choice to rise significantly. How high does he go up the charts? Are Leinart & Rivers being taken too high? Are Favre & Pennington being taken too low?

 

Thoughts?

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Obviously Vick could move down depending on what happens with his pending legal problems. I like Kitna more than quite a few guys taken ahead of him. Young is going way to early IMO. Who else is there on that offense besides him? Like most years, A good QB can be had later on in the draft.

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Rivers and Young are too high. Hasselbeck and Kitna are too low. Vick might be taken off the list :D and even so may be a bit too high, although possibly rushing for 1,000 yds and throwing in 5-6 rushing TDs certainly boosts his value. Yeah I also think Delhomme is too low as well and if taken there would be a great value pick.

Edited by irish
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Rivers and Young are too high. Hasselbeck and Kitna are too low. Vick might be taken off the list :D and even so may be a bit too high, although possibly rushing for 1,000 yds and throwing in 5-6 rushing TDs certainly boosts his value. Yeah I also think Delhomme is too low as well and if taken there would be a great value pick.

 

not sure how you can say Rivers is too high but not Leinart. Rivers sat and learned after being drafted , started all of last year, and has superior talent around him including the defense. but that's one Charger fan's opinion.

Edited by rebdog
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"Rivers and Young are too high. Hasselbeck and Kitna are too low."

 

My experience with MFL draft tracker is that even though you can select non-keeper, there are still some keeper drafts included. I don't know why, but it could be due to their filter/select criteria.

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Palmer should have a return to the top this year. Having Chris Perry adds to their game plan.

 

What makes you think they'll have Chris Perry healthy and available?

 

I don't think Leinart is being taken too high, I think the 8 spot is just right for him. Before he injured his shoulder last year he looked as if he had finally started to figure out the NFL game. He also proved that he could put up a lot of yards if needed, as he did in the game where he threw for 400 yards.

Adding Whisenhunt as a HC, and bringing Grimm in to fix the line along with Levi Brown coming in to protect his blindside should give him some time to do some things.

Oh yeah, he also has Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Bolden, Edgerrin James, and Bryant Johnson... Not too bad.

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Where do we see the greatest movement by the end of August/beginning of September?

Other than Green I see very little movement here. With QBs you pretty much know what you're getting beforehand & people usually base their placement on the players surrounding them.

 

 

Trent Green is a pretty obvious choice to rise significantly. How high does he go up the charts?

 

I would place him around 17th based on this list

 

 

Are Leinart & Rivers being taken too high?

No, I don't believe so. I fact I think Rivers should go a little higher. I would take either one of them over Vince Young

 

Are Favre & Pennington being taken too low?

Favre possibly, but his declining skills and his questionable desire are what is dropping his stock & rightly so. Pennington's history has him right where he should be.

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Rivers is the next Tom Brady IMHO. Especially now that he's had a solid year of production under his belt and will be hooking up more with the likes of Vincent Jackson and Craig Davis. My prediction: after this upcoming season, he will be drafted as a solid upper Tier 2 QB... then the following year he will be considered a stud Tier 1 QB.

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Favre and Pennington are right where they need to be. Neither of them should be counted on to win you fantasy games week in and week out. The jets are so topsy turvey with there offense, you don't know what you're going to get...

As far as Favre goes, he'll win you 2-3 games with monstor stats, other weeks he'll do so-so, but on average, he'll give you 230 yards, a TD and an INT. Not something I'd feel safe about.

Man, that saddens me to say that... :D

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:D Grossman made the top 30!

 

Seriously though, I hear Chicago has brought in another coach that is "training" Grossman to look for the underneath routes first instead of locking in on Berrian every play. Could be interesting to see if it works or not.

 

I think the kid is getting a tough rap. He has had a hard first few years in the league. Last year might as well have been his rookie year. He'll get better.

 

edited to add: ((not that it is saying very much)) that I believe he could end the year well higher than Romo

Edited by Duchess Jack
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:D Grossman made the top 30!

 

Seriously though, I hear Chicago has brought in another coach that is "training" Grossman to look for the underneath routes first instead of locking in on Berrian every play. Could be interesting to see if it works or not.

 

a 5th year player/2nd year starter/QB they are pinning all their hopes on should not have to be "trained" to throw underneath routes. :D

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not sure how you can say Rivers is too high but not Leinart. Rivers sat and learned after being drafted , started all of last year, and has superior talent around him including the defense. but that's one Charger fan's opinion.

 

 

Here are my thoughts about Rivers...

 

I agree that the guy is very talented and has a very bright future. However, that said at this point his best proven receivers are LT and Gates not a WR. In mentioning LT, he remains the centerpiece of this offense and with all the carries and rushing TDs he'll continue to get that just means there's less for Rivers to add to his stat sheet. And being that this is FF we can't draft a guy because he's a smart, heady player that's a Pro's-pro and runs a consistent offense. Yeah sure his completion % is in the 60's and he doesn't make a ton of mistakes having only 9 ints last year to 22 TDs. He also only had 3,388 passing yards and he does not run with the ball or score rushing TDs. So it's not even like he's a dual-threat.

 

Looking at last year's numbers he had only 2 games of over 300 yds passing, 6 games where he threw for less than 200 yds and one of them he had 97 yds, he also had a 206 yd effort and a 211 yd effort one with 1 TD and the other with 0 TDs (so basically half the games were below average in terms of yardage). He had 1 game with more than 2 passing TDs, 5 games with only 1 passing TD and 3 games with 0 passing TDs. So, for half the games played last year, Rivers had less than one or 1 passing TD and less than 200 yds passing. Not exactly starter material if you ask me, borderline at best.

 

Now I think with McCardell gone and V Jackson playing a bigger role his numbers will get better. However, I'd probably be willing to take several QBs before him such as; Kitna (had almost 1,000 more yds and as many TDs), Hasselbeck (missed 4 and a half games and had 1,000 less yds and 4 less TDs), Romo (had almost as many yds and TDs in 5 less starts), Cutler, E. Manning (had the same yds and 2 more TDs), Big Ben (missed a week but had more yds and 4 less TDs although he had 2 rushing TDs and more rushing yds), Favre ( had 500 more yds but 4 less TDs plus negative points for ints.), and maybe even Delhomme ( missed 3 games and S Smith for 2-3 others and only had 500 less yds and 5 less TDs) and all these guys were listed below him. :D So basically I can see a scenerio where Rivers isn't in the Top 10 and is more suited to being ranked 14 or 15th. The proof is in the numbers and as much as we like the guy the body of work just isn't there yet.

Edited by irish
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Here are my thoughts about Rivers...

 

I agree that the guy is very talented and has a very bright future. However, that said at this point his best proven receivers are LT and Gates not a WR. In mentioning LT, he remains the centerpiece of this offense and with all the carries and rushing TDs he'll continue to get that just means there's less for Rivers to add to his stat sheet. And being that this is FF we can't draft a guy because he's a smart, heady player that's a Pro's-pro and runs a consistent offense. Yeah sure his completion % is in the 60's and he doesn't make a ton of mistakes having only 9 ints last year to 22 TDs. He also only had 3,388 passing yards and he does not run with the ball or score rushing TDs. So it's not even like he's a dual-threat.

 

Looking at last year's numbers he had only 2 games of over 300 yds passing, 6 games where he threw for less than 200 yds and one of them he had 97 yds, he also had a 206 yd effort and a 211 yd effort one with 1 TD and the other with 0 TDs (so basically half the games were below average in terms of yardage). He had 1 game with more than 2 passing TDs, 5 games with only 1 passing TD and 3 games with 0 passing TDs. So, for half the games played last year, Rivers had less than one or 1 passing TD and less than 200 yds passing. Not exactly starter material if you ask me, borderline at best.

 

Now I think with McCardell gone and V Jackson playing a bigger role his numbers will get better. However, I'd probably be willing to take several QBs before him such as; Kitna, Hasselbeck, Romo, Cutler, E. Manning, Big Ben, Favre (depending on negative points for ints.), and maybe even Delhomme and all these guys were listed below him. :D So basically I can see a scenerio where Rivers isn't in the Top 10 and is more suited to being ranked 14 or 15th. The proof is in the numbers and as much as we like the guy the body of work just isn't there yet.

 

 

That's a nice analysis. Given the composition of SD's team this year, it would also figure that they will be favorites in a large part of their games, or if underdogs then very slight underdogs. That would tend to suggest that it can be anticipated that they'll go into the second half of games with either a lead or be in a very close game. Either way, they should be expected to turn to the running game a lot during the second half of games, limiting Rivers' opportunities all season.

 

Now, knowing Norv, that could change dramatically. The guy is a wiz as an OC, but as a HC he could screw up a 2 car parade. But if SD has near or as much success as last season, Rivers won't get near the chance he needs to crack the top 10.

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Where do we see the greatest movement by the end of August/beginning of September?

Overall I don't see too much movement outside of the obvious Green and Vick situations.

 

How high does [Green] go up the charts?

Not far. No reason to take him ahead of Delhomme/Losman/Pennington with Miami's abysmal offensive line and the rookie looming.

 

Are Leinart & Rivers being taken too high?

Rivers maybe but Leinart is about right. Rivers is not in a very pass happy offense with many outstanding downfield threats. If many FF points were given for efficiency then Rivers will be a good choice imo. Also Rivers is playing opposite an excellent defense so not much passing may be needed. Leinart has two outstanding WRs, a not-so great D and run game.

 

Are Favre & Pennington being taken too low?

Yes. I'd take Favre over... A.Smith, Schaub, possibly Romo and Eli. Favre has a more balanced offense and better targets than any of the aforementioned imo. I'd take Pennington over... everyone ahead of him save for Kitna/Roethlisberger. With an improved offensive line, efficient scheming, Thomas Jones, and a pretty solid defense he's good for a solid avg of 225yds/1+tds imo. He won't surpass Brady but he's a perfect candidate to start putting up very predictable numbers due to the Pats' balanced system.

 

A.Smith, Schaub, Russell should not be taken before Delhomme/Favre/Pennington/Grossman imo. Two guys are unproven (Schaub/Russell) and Smith's production should not be relied upon until the Niners show something other than hand-off to Gore.

 

McNabb... I can see Leinart/Cutler/Romo/Eli, possibly Hasselbeck outperforming him by the end of the season.

 

Kitna... seems low again this year perhaps because he seemed to fade about down the stretch last year (he threw a ton of picks and losts some fumbles right around FF playoff time). In a 12 team league though, the 9th round seems about right but I'd have a contingency if the Lions fade and go to Orlovsky or Stanton.

 

Leftwich... could be a real steal. The kid has all the physical tools, weapons and defense but just can't stay healthy. Also, the play calling just seems so anemic at times.

Edited by kingfish247
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Here are my thoughts about Rivers...

 

 

Looking at last year's numbers he had only 2 games of over 300 yds passing, 6 games where he threw for less than 200 yds and one of them he had 97 yds, he also had a 206 yd effort and a 211 yd effort one with 1 TD and the other with 0 TDs (so basically half the games were below average in terms of yardage). He had 1 game with more than 2 passing TDs, 5 games with only 1 passing TD and 3 games with 0 passing TDs. So, for half the games played last year, Rivers had less than one or 1 passing TD and less than 200 yds passing. Not exactly starter material if you ask me, borderline at best.

 

Now I think with McCardell gone and V Jackson playing a bigger role his numbers will get better. However, I'd probably be willing to take several QBs before him such as; Kitna (had almost 1,000 more yds and as many TDs), Hasselbeck (missed 4 and a half games and had 1,000 less yds and 4 less TDs), Romo (had almost as many yds and TDs in 5 less starts), Cutler, E. Manning (had the same yds and 2 more TDs), Big Ben (missed a week but had more yds and 4 less TDs although he had 2 rushing TDs and more rushing yds), Favre ( had 500 more yds but 4 less TDs plus negative points for ints.), and maybe even Delhomme ( missed 3 games and S Smith for 2-3 others and only had 500 less yds and 5 less TDs) and all these guys were listed below him. :D So basically I can see a scenerio where Rivers isn't in the Top 10 and is more suited to being ranked 14 or 15th. The proof is in the numbers and as much as we like the guy the body of work just isn't there yet.

 

 

I tend to be less analytical when it comes to his 2006 numbers. i saw every game he played. and remember, it was his first year starting and "team" expectations were very high and so there was a lot of pressure on Rivers. Schottenheimer was very cautious with him especially early on. so to grade him based on last season's numbers alone is foolish IMO.

he's now with a great offensive coach. they'll have more speed at the WR position, and Norv loves to use the TE (and we luckily have one of the best). most importantly, the Chargers now know what they have at QB and won't hesitate to turn him loose when the game plan calls for it.

the proof isn't always in the numbers. you need a pattern to predict the future. one season, especially a QB's first season, does not make a pattern. it probably just tells of the great things to come.

Edited by rebdog
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