Bronco Billy Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 The top 50 WRs as listed by mfl.com in 90 non-keeper drafts, give or take, so far this year: # Player Avg. Pick 1 Smith, Steve CAR WR 20.33 2 Johnson, Chad CIN WR 20.58 3 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 22.94 4 Wayne, Reggie IND WR 25.28 5 Holt, Torry STL WR 27 6 Harrison, Marvin IND WR 30.29 7 Williams, Roy DET WR 32.81 8 Colston, Marques NOS WR 34.2 9 Boldin, Anquan ARI WR 34.75 10 Owens, Terrell DAL WR 35.04 11 Johnson, Andre HOU WR 36.74 12 Walker, Javon DEN WR 39.98 13 Evans, Lee BUF WR 40.88 14 Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR 43.72 15 Moss, Randy NEP WR 46.75 16 Burress, Plaxico NYG WR 47.29 17 Driver, Donald GBP WR 51.89 18 Johnson, Calvin DET WR 57.9 19 Ward, Hines PIT WR 59.12 20 Moss, Santana WAS WR 61 21 Edwards, Braylon CLE WR 62.21 22 Jackson, Darrell SFO WR 63.87 23 Coles, Laveranues NYJ WR 67 24 Brown, Reggie PHI WR 67.77 25 Branch, Deion SEA WR 72.01 26 Chambers, Chris MIA WR 78.02 27 Clayton, Mark BAL WR 79.31 28 Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR 84.06 29 Stallworth, Donte' NEP WR 89.84 30 Holmes, Santonio PIT WR 95.89 31 Berrian, Bernard CHI WR 96.09 32 Jackson, Vincent SDC WR 97.33 33 Jennings, Greg GBP WR 101.14 34 Glenn, Terry DAL WR 102.88 35 Galloway, Joey TBB WR 107.23 36 Hackett, D.J. SEA WR 118.33 37 Marshall, Brandon DEN WR 126.46 38 Jones, Matt JAC WR 128.61 39 Curtis, Kevin PHI WR 133.58 40 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR 135.02 41 Meachem, Robert NOS WR 135.52 42 Furrey, Mike DET WR 135.74 43 Horn, Joe ATL WR 137.93 44 Bennett, Drew STL WR 138.31 45 Henderson, Devery NOS WR 139.51 46 Porter, Jerry OAK WR 140.59 47 Jarrett, Dwayne CAR WR 141.38 48 Bruce, Isaac STL WR 145.35 49 Curry, Ronald OAK WR 145.8 50 Jones, Brandon TEN WR 146.15 Where do we see the greatest movement by the end of August/beginning of September? How closely bunched are the top 6 guys? Does Calvin Johnson warrant being at #18? Which guys below #25 have a good chance of stepping into the top 15? Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 (edited) I can see both Vincent Jackson, Devery Henderson and Jerry Porter outperforming their ADP. Edited June 12, 2007 by irish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 12, 2007 Author Share Posted June 12, 2007 I can see both Vincent Jackson and Jerry Porter outperforming their ADP. It's always been a good rule of thumb to get a team's #1 WR on your roster - even if it's not a prolific passing team. Guys like Eddie Kennison & Keenan McCardell have outperformed their ADPs by a bit for a few years. Jackson & Porter fit that profile right now, and they're both relatively young & athletic WRs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 Where do we see the greatest movement by the end of August/beginning of September? I think Moss will start to shoot up the charts as news of him and Brady building a rapport in camp leaks. How closely bunched are the top 6 guys? Personally I'm ready to drop Harrison out of that top group and I think TO or possibly Javon Walker replace him. The ADP looks pretty close & I think other than Steve Smith at #1 these players are pretty interchangeable. Does Calvin Johnson warrant being at #18? Short answer no...If you're in a dynasty or keeper then possibly, but I think Roy Williams will get the majority of the work there & Kitna is obviously not Payton Manning. Just too many weapons & not enough snaps to warrant that high a spot. Which guys below #25 have a good chance of stepping into the top 15? 26 Chambers, Chris MIA WR 78.02 29 Stallworth, Donte' NEP WR 89.84 33 Jennings, Greg GBP WR 101.14 36 Hackett, D.J. SEA WR 118.33 40 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR 135.02 45 Henderson, Devery NOS WR 139.51 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duchess Jack Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 I can more or less agree with this list... as an aside... I got a 2008 1st and 2nd rookie pick for V Jackson a couple weeks ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 The top 50 WRs as listed by mfl.com in 90 non-keeper drafts, give or take, so far this year: # Player Avg. Pick 1 Smith, Steve CAR WR 20.33 2 Johnson, Chad CIN WR 20.58 3 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 22.94 4 Wayne, Reggie IND WR 25.28 5 Holt, Torry STL WR 27 6 Harrison, Marvin IND WR 30.29 7 Williams, Roy DET WR 32.81 8 Colston, Marques NOS WR 34.2 9 Boldin, Anquan ARI WR 34.75 10 Owens, Terrell DAL WR 35.04 11 Johnson, Andre HOU WR 36.74 12 Walker, Javon DEN WR 39.98 13 Evans, Lee BUF WR 40.88 14 Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR 43.72 15 Moss, Randy NEP WR 46.75 16 Burress, Plaxico NYG WR 47.29 17 Driver, Donald GBP WR 51.89 18 Johnson, Calvin DET WR 57.9 19 Ward, Hines PIT WR 59.12 20 Moss, Santana WAS WR 61 21 Edwards, Braylon CLE WR 62.21 22 Jackson, Darrell SFO WR 63.87 23 Coles, Laveranues NYJ WR 67 24 Brown, Reggie PHI WR 67.77 25 Branch, Deion SEA WR 72.01 26 Chambers, Chris MIA WR 78.02 27 Clayton, Mark BAL WR 79.31 28 Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR 84.06 29 Stallworth, Donte' NEP WR 89.84 30 Holmes, Santonio PIT WR 95.89 31 Berrian, Bernard CHI WR 96.09 32 Jackson, Vincent SDC WR 97.33 33 Jennings, Greg GBP WR 101.14 34 Glenn, Terry DAL WR 102.88 35 Galloway, Joey TBB WR 107.23 36 Hackett, D.J. SEA WR 118.33 37 Marshall, Brandon DEN WR 126.46 38 Jones, Matt JAC WR 128.61 39 Curtis, Kevin PHI WR 133.58 40 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR 135.02 41 Meachem, Robert NOS WR 135.52 42 Furrey, Mike DET WR 135.74 43 Horn, Joe ATL WR 137.93 44 Bennett, Drew STL WR 138.31 45 Henderson, Devery NOS WR 139.51 46 Porter, Jerry OAK WR 140.59 47 Jarrett, Dwayne CAR WR 141.38 48 Bruce, Isaac STL WR 145.35 49 Curry, Ronald OAK WR 145.8 50 Jones, Brandon TEN WR 146.15 Where do we see the greatest movement by the end of August/beginning of September? How closely bunched are the top 6 guys? Does Calvin Johnson warrant being at #18? Which guys below #25 have a good chance of stepping into the top 15? Thoughts? He was the 5th highest scoring wr in my leagues last year. The Rondney Dangerfield of WR's... Does his job damn well and still gets no respect. I think he should be at the 12 spot, ahead of Javon Walker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 How closely bunched are the top 6 guys? Personally I'm ready to drop Harrison out of that top group and I think TO or possibly Javon Walker replace him. The ADP looks pretty close & I think other than Steve Smith at #1 these players are pretty interchangeable. People have been saying and thinking this for a few years now... The only thing Harrison does is go out and put up another monstorous season, and we still want to drop him on our lists... If we keep on doing this every year im sure we'll hit on it eventually, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 12, 2007 Author Share Posted June 12, 2007 (edited) People have been saying and thinking this for a few years now... The only thing Harrison does is go out and put up another monstorous season, and we still want to drop him on our lists... If we keep on doing this every year im sure we'll hit on it eventually, right? I did the same thing for at least 3 years with Curtis Martin. I kept waiting for him to run out of steam or get tweaked & he kept acting like the energizer bunny. Edited June 12, 2007 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 He was the 5th highest scoring wr in my leagues last year. The Rondney Dangerfield of WR's... Does his job damn well and still gets no respect. I think he should be at the 12 spot, ahead of Javon Walker. Could be, but Fave & Jennings had a very good thing going last year before Jennings got hurt. But you are right, he has never gotten the respect he deserves. People have been saying and thinking this for a few years now... The only thing Harrison does is go out and put up another monstorous season, and we still want to drop him on our lists... If we keep on doing this every year im sure we'll hit on it eventually, right? Actually I'm not saying that he will drop off the planet, I think his stats will still be close to what he's being projected at, but rather I think someone else will push him out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 Anyone else surprised to see Marques Colston at #8, immediately ahead of Boldin, TO, Andre Johnson and Javon Walker? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Score 1 Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 Anyone else surprised to see Marques Colston at #8, immediately ahead of Boldin, TO, Andre Johnson and Javon Walker? Yes. Not that I think Colston can't do it, just that there are so many other believers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 Which guys below #25 have a good chance of stepping into the top 15? 50 Jones, Brandon TEN WR 146.15 I think he is going to end up really stepping up to lead this team's Receivers in a big way. Maybe not a top 15, but he will end up at least 20 spots higher than his current ADP warrants IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 (edited) How closely bunched are the top 6 guys? Very. I'd rather have consistency over a bunch of stinkers with a few monster games so I'd put Smith/Johnson down at the bottom of that top 6. Does Calvin Johnson warrant being at #18? No. The Lions are still a mess. Kitna is prone to TOs and Williams/Furrey caught a ton of balls last year. He could perform at that level but that's a big IF imo especially for a rookie WR. Which guys below #25 have a good chance of stepping into the top 15? Reggie Brown, Chambers, Ward, and I may get flamed for this but... J.Galloway. Jeff Garcia is the most competent QB in Tampa in quite a while. Johnson/Dilfer were ok because they didn't have to do much but Garcia actually presents a threat at the position that they haven't had in quite some time, possibly ever. Lav Coles... a solid WR but that seems high this year. He was a steal last year but I'd rather have the fresh legs of Cotchery at that spot. Santana Moss... I'm sorry but especially after last year this seems way too high. The entire Redskins O stunk and while Saunders was only in his 1st year there, no WRs really seem to do well in his system. You can probably expect a couple big games but they'd be few and far between to have him in your FF lineup week-in/week-out. Cooley is effectively the #1 WR there imo. Jackson... definitely seems like a steal in that spot. I can see him cracking the top 20 in production by the end of the season. Marshall... as Cutler gains more experience and having one full offseason together, he's poised to outperform his draft position. Fresher legs than Rod Smith and much more physically imposing (Marshall 6-4/220 vs Smith 6/200). Add in a consistent threat at RB, Walker across the field and D's will be forced to make some very difficult choices. Edited June 12, 2007 by kingfish247 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 Anyone else surprised to see Marques Colston at #8, immediately ahead of Boldin, TO, Andre Johnson and Javon Walker? Nope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 How closely bunched are the top 6 guys? Personally I'm ready to drop Harrison out of that top group and I think TO or possibly Javon Walker replace him. The ADP looks pretty close & I think other than Steve Smith at #1 these players are pretty interchangeable. Wasn't Harrison the #1 overall last season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 Wasn't Harrison the #1 overall last season? Yep, but I'm not afraid to be wrong so I'll make my "bold" predictions and stand by them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fatman Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 Anyone else surprised to see Marques Colston at #8, immediately ahead of Boldin, TO, Andre Johnson and Javon Walker? People can have him at 8. I won't be taking him that high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted June 12, 2007 Author Share Posted June 12, 2007 People can have him at 8. I won't be taking him that high. I agree. I sure do like Colston, but to have him as a #1 FF WR is sure rolling the dice. he wouldn't be the first WR to have a sophomore slump after a good to great rookie year (which is rare to begin with). Clayton and Evans come immediately to mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H8tank Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 Matt Jones Makes the list but Reggie williams does not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 Matt Jones Makes the list but Reggie williams does not? Yeah, no kiddin' that should definitely be flip-flopped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 Actually I'm not saying that he will drop off the planet, I think his stats will still be close to what he's being projected at, but rather I think someone else will push him out. I'm not bashing you for it, actually, I agree with you... Although deep down I know we're both wrong and he'll still dominate... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 3 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 22.94 High. Boldin has been more or less his equal. I'd rather have Wayne, Harrison, and R.Williams. I don't get the #3 love with the talent at this position. 8 Colston, Marques NOS WR 34.2 High. He's obviously a very good football player, but I question his injury history. I don't draft him as the #8 WR, maybe around #16 or so. 13 Evans, Lee BUF WR 40.88 Low. I might consider switching him with Colston. He finished last season at #7 among WR, there doesn't seem to be a reason to sink him this far. 14 Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR 43.72 Low. CJ and Housh are both going to be top 10 again. Just like last year. Very pass friendly schedule, not a lot of talent behind them @ WR. 18 Johnson, Calvin DET WR 57.9 Low. Mike Furrey was the #12 WR last season in PPR. Furrey also had more fantasy points than Roy 9 of 16 weeks. CJ2 is a much more intriguing player than Furrey. 21 Edwards, Braylon CLE WR 62.21 24 Brown, Reggie PHI WR 67.77 27 Clayton, Mark BAL WR 79.31 32 Jackson, Vincent SDC WR 97.33 3rd Year WRs. Seemingly primed for breakouts into the top 10-15. 40 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR 135.02 Low. I like this kid and his situation a lot for immediate results. 46 Porter, Jerry OAK WR 140.59 50 Jones, Brandon TEN WR 146.15 #1s on their respective teams. Should be drafted much higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 3 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 22.94 High. Boldin has been more or less his equal. I'd rather have Wayne, Harrison, and R.Williams. I don't get the #3 love with the talent at this position. 18 Johnson, Calvin DET WR 57.9 Low. Mike Furrey was the #12 WR last season in PPR. Furrey also had more fantasy points than Roy 9 of 16 weeks. CJ2 is a much more intriguing player than Furrey. 40 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR 135.02 Low. I like this kid and his situation a lot for immediate results. Here is my take... 1. Leinart looks to Fitz first. Fitz also scores a lot more TD's than Bolden. Fitz missed 3 entire games, along with one game where he only played on the first drive... Fitz ended up with 15 less catches, 250 less yards and 2 more TD's than Bolden. I beleive Fitz will go for around 90-1250-12 this year. 2. Mike Furrey is the no.3 wr on this team. Johnson has skills that puts him in the top 2% in talent in the league. He'll also be looking at single coverage all day long. I think he's just right. 3. Dwayne Bowe plays in Kansas City. They don't have receivers in Kansas City. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 2. Mike Furrey is the no.3 wr on this team. Johnson has skills that puts him in the top 2% in talent in the league. He'll also be looking at single coverage all day long. I think he's just right. You don't read too well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted June 12, 2007 Share Posted June 12, 2007 You don't read too well. no, I didnt this time. I apologize. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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