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The truth


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As many of you know, we've debated this topic a few different times in this forum. Once a linebacker is identified as a two-down player, most people won't touch them in a trade or in the draft. The theory is that whenever a LB is off the field for one-third of the defensive snaps, he's losing out on way too many FF point-scoring opportunities.

 

My argument, which is definitely in the minority, is that these "two-down" LBs are only being taken off the field in obvious passing situations -- for the nickel package -- which aren't very good tackling opportunities. I mean, unless the LB is racking up sacks and interceptions, how many times is the offense going to run the ball on 3rd-and-long? And out of all the times the offense does (or completes a short pass in the LB's zone), that LB will still have to beat the other defenders to make the tackle. Sure, I figured it happens, but just not enough for me to attach any meaning to the harsh 2-down stigma in the world of IDP.

 

So, I decided to do some research. I randomly chose six of the top 20 LBs (in GMX scoring -- 2 pts per solo, 1 per assist) and scoured the play-by-play reports for each player's first 8 games of 2006. I only counted the plays made on 3rd-and-5 or longer, since the defense isn't in the nickel (or dime) package on 3rd-and-short.

 

Here are the results:

 

#1. Demeco Ryans* -- 5 total points (0.6 ppg)

#2. London Fletcher-Baker -- 29 total points** (3.6 ppg)

#6. Donnie Edwards -- 15 total points (1.9 ppg)

#10. Kirk Morrison -- 16 total points (2 ppg)

#13. Lofa Tatupu -- 5 total points (0.6 ppg)

#15. Derrick Brooks -- 8 total points (1 ppg)

#20. Gary Brackett -- 14.5 total points (1.8 points per game)

 

** Two interesting notes about Ryans: 1) His ONLY solo tackle that counted was on 3rd-and-5 in the fourth quarter of a blowout loss, so the defense was definitely still in its base package. 2) Even in his amazing 46.5-point Week 13 game, Ryans' only scoring on 3rd down came on one sack (5 points). That means he was able to score 41.5 points on first and second downs. :D

 

*Fletcher-Baker's total is a little inflated, since 10 of his 29 3rd-down points were scored on one play -- an INT return for a TD. Even without it, though, he still had the highest PPG on 3rd downs (2.4 ppg) out of the six players.

 

 

Conclusions? Well, for all the solid LBs who play in the nickel package, they seem to average about 2 points per game on 3rd down (the equivalent of one solo tackle). In reality, that's not much production on a game-by-game basis; however, that's 32 points over a 16-game season, which can make a huge difference in the final LB standings.

 

The point here, though, is that an LB doesn't need to be a 3-down LB to be a very good scorer. The fact that the #1 overall LB in FF scored almost nothing on 3rd down is proof of that (even if you took his 10 projected 3rd-down points over the season, he'd STILL be the #1 guy). Plus, one of the best coverage LBs in the league, Derrick Brooks, also didn't score much on 3rd down and still remained in the top 15.

 

So, this has taught me two main lessons:

 

1. Of course, it's always better for an LB to play in the nickel packages. I underestimated the overall value of one measly tackle per game.

 

2. As I've said before, the 2-down/3-down discussion still seems somewhat overblown. It's a fact that two-down LBs somehow find their way into the top tier of scoring. Even in the best case (L. Fletcher-Baker), 80% of the LB's points are scored in the base defensive package. On average, that percentage goes up to around 90%. A linebacker who excels at playing the run (Ryans, Tatupu) will rack up tackles regardless of how much he plays in the nickel or dime.

 

 

Discuss. :D

Edited by Swiss Cheezhead
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So, this has taught me three main lessons:

 

1. Of course, it's always better for an LB to play in the nickel packages. I underestimated the overall value of one measly tackle per game.

 

2. As I've said before, the 2-down/3-down discussion still seems somewhat overblown. It's a fact that two-down LBs somehow find their way into the top tier of scoring. Even in the best case (L. Fletcher-Baker), 80% of the LB's points are scored in the base defensive package. On average, that percentage goes up to around 90%. A linebacker who excels at playing the run (Ryans, Tatupu) will rack up tackles regardless of how much he plays in the nickel or dime.

Discuss. :D

 

 

What's the 3rd lesson?

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