cliaz Posted July 4, 2007 Share Posted July 4, 2007 (edited) Cliaz’s Review of the AFC North Part I This is part 1 in a series of 32 part I hope to complete before the middle of August. I do not have the time to devote to this like the staff here does so take it for what it is worth. This is an attempt from a board member to bring forth discussion on the topic of one team at a time from both a football and a fantasy football view point. Disclaimer: the following does not represent the opinions of the Huddle.com staff. This is merely an independent review that is based off of my own research through ESPN, CNN, NFL.com, Washington Post and other media outlets. None of my reviews are taken from proprietary source [such as the huddle.com as I have still to pay for my membership ] and any related items are purely coincidence. The Baltimore Ravens 2005: 6-10 2006: 13-3 [made the playoffs] 2007: 10-6 [projected] Offense Overview: With Steve McNair, Ray Lewis, Derrick Mason, Samari Rolle among some of the 30+ year olds the Ravens are out to prove that last years 13-3 season [and post season entry] was not a fluke but a sign of things to come. The Ravens are hoping that with the addition of running back Willis McGahee to keep the pressure off of Steve McNair that the aging veteran can find a comfort zone to break out of his short to medium range passes and open up the offense more. Look for the Ravens to keep with the dink and dunk passing while establishing the running game then for McNair to find his old form and take shots down field for long gains and Tds. Of the 295 completions last season that McNair had 95 went to his TEs, 159 went to his WRs and the remaining was spread across the RBs. Although he seems to favor his WRs more Todd Heap led all with 73 receptions with Derrick Mason next with 68. Expect a strong season from Heap again with Demetrius Williams becoming a deep threat for the Ravens. Look for Willis McGahee to establish himself as a strong runner and should see the 1400 rushing yards mark in this system. The Offensive line will need to adjust to a different running style with McGahee but that shouldn’t be a problem. One of the issues the line has besides the age of Jonathan Ogden is the lack of depth. In order for the Raven to succeed this season all O-line starter must remain healthy. If this line gets decimated by injuries you can expect a long season for the Ravens that might very well end up watching the post season from their chairs at home. Defense Overview: The strength of this Defensive unit is its ability to blitz from anywhere on the field. Like the Patriots defensive schemes the Ravens can show you multiple fronts and shuffle around to confuse the QB and O-line. Expect to see a more aggressive defense this season from the Ravens with blitz after blitz. Though once a QB locks on to their schemes these blitz could be the weakness of the Defense and can very well be the teams down fall should they make the playoffs. The duo of Suggs and Pryce can be nasty. Normally one of them is set against a lone blocker collapsing the pocket setting up sacks and fumbles [2006 Ravens had 60 sacks and 23 fumble recoveries]. One thing this line is good at is keeping the blockers occupied allowing the LBs to do what they do best, make plays. Speaking of LBs Ray Lewis still has the speed to run sideline to sideline and can still deliver a power hit like few have but the bright spot here this season is Bart Scott. After a very impressive 2006 season which saw Scott break out with 78 tackles [2 less then Lewis] and 9.5 sacks [4.5 more then Lewis] apposing teams needed to adjust to him and Lewis. Look for the defense to utilize these two to maximize their potential to fill in the gap where Adalius Thomas was with his 11 sacks. The Secondary needs to improve more in their performance both mentally and physically. Last year saw too many costly mistakes. Many suspect that Samari Rolle is on the downside of his career and this may be true with his lack luster season in 2006 but not all of that can be placed on his shoulders. Ed Reed broke assignments to improvise a play one too many times and left Rolle without any help over the top. By the end of the season both seemed to gel back to their old selves. Look for them to play strong in 2007 season. Team Summary – Though this Offense may never put up 35 points a game still expect a solid season from them. With a stronger running back to stabilize the offense and the veteran QB who will use his TEs and WRs to methodically pick apart defenses there is no reason that the Ravens need to lean on their defensive unit to win games. Though if you had to rely on a Defense what better one then the Ravens. The secondary should improve its play this season and the duel duos of Lewis/Scott and Suggs/Pryce should and will devastate opposing teams. Expect a unit that most likely be the high scoring defense in the league. Fantasy Insight: Quarter Backs Steve McNair Projection: 250 completions 3251 yards 18 Tds 12 Ints – 42 rushes 95 yards 1 Td. Since 1999 Steve McNair has only started 16 games twice in a season and he has never thrown for more than 23 Tds except once in 2003. Though he is a huge improvement over Kyle Boller do not put too much stock in his abilities as a fantasy starter. Remember he played with the Houston Oilers and helped train dinosaurs with Skylive5 back in the day so you know he is getting up there in age. McNair favors the tight ends more then the WRs and has no problem dumping off passes to his RBs. Expect to see his yardage to remain around the same and maybe an increase of a couple of touchdowns because of Willis McGahee’s skills catching out of the back field. Kyle Boller Projection: 55 completions 630 yards 4 Tds 6 Ints – 10 rushes 28 yards 0 Tds Nothing really much to say here about Kyle here but even as a backup he is disastrous. Do not expect too much from him even if McNair does sit out a few games due to injury. Running Backs Willis McGahee Projection: 310 rushes 1350 yards 9 Tds – 34 receptions 220 yards 1 Tds Willis McGahee brings a lot to the back field of the Ravens. He is a better receiver, can be more effective with tosses and sweep plays where Lewis was just a north/south runner. He is younger and healthier and will bring a much needed dimension to the offense. Where Lewis required a lead blocker to be successful McGahee will be set as the lone back most of the time [hopefully]. McGahee has fantastic vision coupled with patience and a burst of speed to punch through holes or to move piles. He can turn on the burners in the open field and slash through the secondary for long Td runs. The question here is can he remain healthy? History shows us no and with him being the primary back in Baltimore where Billick plans on using him between the tackles, outside and in the passing game chances are he will miss a game or two due to injury. Mike Anderson Projections: 35 rushes 140 yards 1 Td – 7 receptions 42 yard 0 Td Mike Anderson left the Denver Broncos in 2005 with 1014 yards and 12 Tds rushing. Many expected he would split time with Jamal Lewis on the field but that did not happen. He is a powerful back that can push a pile and may see some use in 3rd and short situations but do not expect him to be plugged in on goal line plays. The odds are this year he will see even less time with McGahee the feature back now and that is providing he beats out Musa Smith to be #2 in the depth chart. Anderson should only be drafted for your fantasy team as insurance for McGahee owners. Musa Smith Projections: 25 rushes 102 yards 0 Tds – 7 receptions for 34 yards 0 Td Musa Smith will be competing with Mike Anderson for the role of backup to McGahee. He enters his 5th year in the NFL with 2006 being his “Career Year” with 153 yards rushing. He has great vision and can burst through the line with incredible speed. The issue with him [besides playing behind McGahee] is he carries the injury bug. Smith isn’t worth a spot on a team in league with 12 teams or fewer and expect Anderson to win out the #2 spot. Justin Green Projections: N/A Green’s time as a blocker with the Ravens is limited. He was placed on injury reserve last season and ended the year with no rushing attempts and only 4 receptions. If you are desperate for an injury replacement in mid season please look else where. No fantasy Value. P.J. Daniels Projections: N/A Spent last season on reserve with the Ravens and will attempt to make a roster spot this season. Again if you are looking for a desperate replacement during mid season, look else where. No fantasy value. Le’Ron McClain Projections: N/A McClain will attempt to wrestle away the full back duties from Green [and will succeed]. He is a fantastic blocker though this will not translate into any fantasy value for McClain he could open a couple of goal line holes for McGahee during the season. No fantasy value. Wide Receivers Mark Clayton Projections: 79 receptions 1100 yards 7 Tds Mark Clayton broke through last season and took over in the second half as the more valuable WR. During the second half of the season he was averaging 17 yards per reception where Mason was averaging 9 yards and was 6th over all in YAC [Yards After the Catch] in the league. As he enters his third season it becomes apparent that he will be the future of the WR corp. Remember most wide outs break out during their 3rd season and with the speedster Demetrius Williams threatening opposing defenses expect Clayton to shine. All the signs point to Clayton being a solid #3 fantasy WR with a huge upside and a possible low end sleeper. Derrick Mason Projections: 65 receptions 545 yards 1 Tds Mason’s time as a viable fantasy receiver has passed by. In leagues with 12+ teams where points are award per reception the WR will have some use as a high end #3 WR. The 2006 season was his worst by far and do not expect much to change going into the 2007 season. The ravens will use him as a possession receiver for the time being until Clayton or Williams step up their game. Demetrius Williams Projections: 40 receptions 495 yards 2 tds Williams will benefit from more three wide receiver sets the Ravens will use this season. Because of more face time on the field you can expect Williams to replace Mason more towards mid season and complement Clayton’s natural abilities. He is fast and can turn it on to beat out most corners and this is apparent with his 18 yard per catch average last season. Demetrius should be drafted in the later rounds and stashed away. Look for him to be a good #3 with a huge upside should McNair break out of his short and medium range passes and take advantage of #87. Clarence Moore Projections: N/A Clarence has seen his receptions decline from 24 [293 yards, 4 Tds] in 2004 to 2 receptions [1 yard and 1 Td] in 2006. He will compete for a roster spot. No Fantasy Value. Devard Darling Projections: N/A Was a reserve with the Ravens last year and will compete for a roster spot. No Fantasy Value. Tight Ends Todd Heap Projections: 70 receptions 705 yards 6 Tds Heap [2 time Pro Bowler] is clearly a #1 Fantasy TE and nothing will change that in the 2007 season. The thing that benefited Heap last season was McNair’s shakiness to stand in the pocket and risk taking that inevitable career ending hit. McNair locked on to Heap and because of that managed 73 receptions for 765 yards and 6 Tds. It was apparent that McNair didn’t wait long at all to throw to Heap as his average dropped almost a full yard last season. Defenses locked on to this fact and swarmed on Heap preventing him from going anywhere after the catch [almost a 100 yards less in 2006 then in 2005] Still Heap will be drafted early and will produce for your team. Look for a drop in yards and Tds as McNair finds his WRs more towards the mid and end of the season. Daniel Wilcox Projection: 20 receptions for 110 yards 1 Td Wilcox is more of a blocking Tight End. Do not expect to see him used much and is almost guaranteed for 20 receptions 100 yards and 1 Td. Even though the Ravens are moving to more two TE sets do not expect Wilcox to improve on his stats. This is a Todd Heap team and he knows it. No Fantasy Value. Kicker Matt Stover Projections: 32 attempts 28 FGs – 22 EPA 22 EPs Stover has been a fantasy anchor for kickers over the past few seasons and can be drafted in the final round of your draft. Though he is entering his 17th season still expect a solid if not unspectacular season. Defense Projections: 4 DTD 21 Ints 1 SY 45 Sacks 835 tackles 23 FF The Ravens Defense has been one of fantasy footballs most popular and dominate picks and will ensure you get what you pay for. Last season they gave up 21 points only 3 times and had 6 DTDs. This unit will be the first defense selected in many draft and for good reason. Though the departure of LB Adalius Thomas will hurt expect LBs Lewis and Scott to pick up the slack. Edited July 4, 2007 by cliaz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitbull739 Posted July 6, 2007 Share Posted July 6, 2007 Another year older and the window of opportunity has become more of a peephole. Remember how the Purple Browns were the "criminals" of the league before the recent group of Bungle riff-raff swiped that title away? Expect them to be back in #2 or #3 looking up once again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cliaz Posted July 7, 2007 Author Share Posted July 7, 2007 bump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted July 7, 2007 Share Posted July 7, 2007 wow, nice stuff. I hate the ravens so I hope they choke on a chicken bone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cliaz Posted July 8, 2007 Author Share Posted July 8, 2007 bump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Love Posted July 9, 2007 Share Posted July 9, 2007 Since 1999 Steve McNair has only started 16 games twice in a season and he has never thrown for more than 23 Tds except once in 2003. Though he is a huge improvement over Kyle Boller do not put too much stock in his abilities as a fantasy starter. Remember he played with the Houston Oilers and helped train dinosaurs with Skylive5 back in the day so you know he is getting up there in age. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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