AFC North Review: Part III - Steelers

[cliaz]

Cliaz’s Review Of The AFC North Part III

 

This is part 3 in a 32 part series I hope to complete before the middle of August.

 

The Pittsburgh Steelers

2005: 11-5 [super Bowl Winner]

2006: 8-8

2007: 7-9

 

Offensive Overview:

 

With the retirement of the Jaw we also saw the Steelers of old slip away. Wide Receivers Coach Bruce Arian was promoted to fill the void left by Whisenhunt who re-established a balanced attach with a strong running game and a passing attack that did just enough to help win games. Because of Arian we will see a more pass happy offense this season which could mean either big things for this team or could mean its collapse if Ben can’t regain his 2004 – 2005 former self.

 

Anytime you change coaches there is a period of adjustment. Roethlisberger may benefit from these changes. In the past he had been asked to throw into windows and on timing routes which he couldn’t adjust to. Now with a new HC and OC he will have an opportunity to sit back and select where and when to throw the ball. As long he can keep his confidence high Ben will be successful. But be warned defenses have pick up on the fact that cover 2 and cover 3 confuse him and if he attempts to stay too long in the pocket and force the ball this will be another repeat of 2006.

 

The offensive line needs to improve its play from last year where they let the QB get sacked 46 times. One issue is with the retirement of Center Jeff Hartings the line will lean on converted guard Sean Mahan. Mahan has experience as a Center while replacing injured John Wade in 2004 for Tampa Bay. He has the physical tools to play center in the AFC north and should be adequate to start the season.

 

In the past the running game was the bread and butter of this team. With the new OC gearing up to have more of a passing attack this season expect to see a reduction in rushing though by not much. If Ben struggle and the offense stalls the running game can be fired up to take back over and help push this team back into playoff contention.

 

The wide receiver pool has the talent, speed and hands to help bring this new offense into the light. The Steelers have a hidden gem in Holmes and Wilson and should be able to spread out the field and make plays.

 

Defensive Overview:

 

The Steelers will continue to use the 3-4 defense but with a more focus on cover 2 and less blitzing. The aggressiveness of the unit will still be a factor but played with a more controlled rage then the attacking, swarming of the past. Even so this is still Dick LeBeau’s group so do not expect too much of a change this season.

 

The line is huge and can stop the run with ease. Between Smith’s ability to plug up the running lanes, Hampton’s unmoving hulk that will always commit two blockers to himself nothing much would change even if this defense went to a 4-3. The problem here like most AFC north teams is lack of depth and injuries could hurt the line.

 

The Secondary is owned by Troy Polamalu who hits with conviction and commands respect from quarter backs. Couple him up with Anthony Smith and you have a dangerous combo that can pluck the ball from a receiver’s hands. Look for a solid season from the secondary.

 

The Linebackers took a heavy loss with Joey Porter going south. The unit will still be a disruptive force with James Harrison replacing Porter. Harrison is powerful and hits with authority and will put the fear in quarter backs, wide receivers and tight ends going over the middle. Expect Haggans to step up his game and apply more pressure as the season progresses and for Foote to bounce back from what some call a mild season for him.

 

 

Team Summary:

 

The Steelers are on a make or break season right now. The change of coaching staff always presents problems as well as opportunities for a team. Most of the 2005 Super Bowl team is still with the club. Everything boils down to if Big Ben can perform this season. If not the Steelers could be watching the Brown step past them.

 

The Defensive unit shouldn’t be as blitz happy this year but expect them to play a more refined roll. The Linebackers will be relied on less for blitz and more on stopping the run while adjusting to their emotional leader [Porter] being gone. The D-line should perform the same as last year and as long as no injuries decimate this unit all should be smooth sailing.

 

 

Fantasy Insight:

 

Quarter Backs:

 

Ben Roethlisberger

 

Projections: 280 completions 3259 yards 22 Tds 12 Ints – 27 rushes 85 yards 2 tds

 

The trials and tribulations of Big Been in 2006 were almost endless. First he suffered an almost fatal motorcycle accident in the off season then emergency surgery for a vermiform appendix in the preseason and finally tossed a league high in Ints [23] to his Tds [19] all while being sacked 46 times and looking confused and lost while in the pocket and uneasy about rushing outside of it. Some bright points of the season were he did almost break 100 yards rushing [with 2 rushing tds] and passed for a career high of over 3500 yards.

 

Last season the passing game was all about timing which did not sit well with his mechanics. But a new quarter back coach and a offensive coordinator who will want to spread the ball around will play up to Ben’s strength which are sitting back and picking an open receiver instead of timing a throw. Also there are talks of a contract extension which could mean good things for Big Ben owners this season as he auditions for more money. Look for a slightly improved quarter back in Ben this season.

 

 

Charlie Batch

 

Projections: 35 completions 325 yards 3 tds

 

Charlie Batch is a veteran quarter back that is mobile, intelligent and can throw on the run. When he opened the season against the Dolphins in 2006 Charlie threw for 209 yards and 3 Tds with no Ints. Unless Big Ben goes down with an injury, Charlie Batch will have no value as a fantasy quarter back.

 

 

Brian St. Pierre

 

Projections: N/A

 

Brian is nothing more than a career backup who has zero fantasy value.

 

 

Brian Randall

 

Projections: N/A

 

Will compete for a roster spot with the Steelers. No Fantasy Value here.

 

 

 

Running Backs

 

Willie Parker

 

Projections: 285 rushes 1225 yards 11 Tds – 22 receptions 195 yards 1 td

 

Parker proved to all that he can be the primary runner and carry a heavy work load for his size by rushing for 1494 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. He has posted two back to back 1,000 yard seasons and improved on his receiving out of the back field to give Big Ben yet another check down target. Even the new HC Tomlin said that his impression of the back changed once he sat down and watched more film on him. And now the bad…

 

…on that film though were a lot of fumbles [7] which prompted the Steelers to bring in Kevan Barlow to complete with Najeh Davenport for short yardage and possible goal line duties. Still expect Parker to again rush for more than 1,000 yards and over 10 tds. He will be a solid addition to your fantasy team and should be drafted in the first two rounds.

 

 

Najeh Davenport

 

Projections: 85 rushes 410 yards 2 Tds – 5 receptions 40 yards 0 Td

 

Davenport should hold off Barlow to keep the #2 RB spot behind Parker. HC Tomlin has expressed his intention of having a running back that can spell Parker and take some of the pressure off of him. The Steelers are going to become a team with a one/two punch at running back this season but do not look for Davenport to be more than a handcuff for Fast Willie owners. There is limited fantasy value here unless you are a Parker owner.

 

 

Kevan Barlow

 

Projections: 28 rushes 110 yards 0 Tds – 5 receptions 18 yards 0 Tds

 

Barlow was released by the Jets after a very disappointing season which was marred by injury and poor performance. The Steelers sign Barlow to compete with Davenport to backup Willie Parker. Barlow will have very little fantasy value this season and will most likely be the #3 RB on the roster.

 

 

Wide Receivers

 

Santonio Holmes (sleeper)

 

Projections: 82 Receptions 1050 yards 8 Tds

 

Holmes enters his sophomore year with a lot of expectations on him. As a rookie he compiled 824 yards and 2 tds. Holmes has the speed to go deep and beat the secondary for long tds while also have the natural physical ability to run clean routes without being jammed off the line. He has great bursts of speed and can turn on the burners while dodging tacklers and can threaten to score each time he touches the ball. Though many will suggest that he is nothing more then a low end #3 with an up side I will go on record here stating that he will be a solid fantasy #2 with the potential to break out this season and be a low end #1.

 

 

Hines Ward

 

Projections: 62 receptions 840 yards 5 Tds

 

Ward is one of the best pass catching receivers to play the game and even though he struggled with injury last season he still managed to get the same yardage [975] that he did in the 2005. Hines is a physical receiver with good hands and can provide Ben with a large target in the red zone or a possession receiver to make those difficult catches over the middle. With Big Ben entering into a new system look for the Steelers to get Hines the ball on shorter routes and to do what he does best, run after the catch. Expect lower numbers in yardage, receptions and tds this season.

 

 

Cedrick Wilson

 

Projections: 24 receptions 410 yards 2 Tds – 2 completions 35 yards 1 Td

 

Wilson will share time with Nate Washington as the Steelers #3 wide receiver. Wilson is fast and has the tools needed to be at least a solid injury replacement for a fantasy team or a bi-week filler. Expect him to use his former college quarter back skills to pass for at least one touch down this season.

 

 

Nate Washington

 

Projections: 15 receptions 120 yards 1 Td

 

Washington has show signs of being able to secure the #3 WR spot for the Steelers. Last season saw Nate doing some impressive acrobatic receptions and pulling in 4 Tds. Even though the offense is going into a more spread offense with more four receiver sets do not expect Washington to help your fantasy team out much. He is far to inconsistence to be worth anything more than a bi-week replacement.

 

 

Willie Reid

 

Projections: N/A

 

Reid will be used mostly on special teams this season. No fantasy value here.

 

 

Tight Ends

 

Heath Miller

 

Projections: 51 receptions 586 yards 5 tds

 

The Steelers need to get Heath more involved in the passing game this season. He is a big target that can and will benefit Big Ben is tough situations. He knows how to use his body to block out defenders while making the difficult catches and is strong to get separation while adjusting to a pass.

 

The new offensive coordinator has expressed using more four receiver sets with Heath in the slot or split wide. This can only mean more opportunities for him to match catches, gain yards and score.

 

 

Jerame Tuman

 

Projections: N/A

 

Tuman is nothing more than a blocking Tight End for the Steelers. Do not expect anything to change in the 2007 season. No fantasy value here.

 

 

Kicker

 

Jeff Reed

 

Projections: 29 FGA 24 FGs – 41 EPA 41 EP

 

Jeff Reed has a bad habit of missing easy field goals.

2003 – missed 9

2004 – missed 5

2005 – missed 5

2006 – missed 7

 

He is worth only as a bi-week filler or an injury replacement and will never amount to more than a #2 fantasy kicker.

 

Defense

 

Projections: 2 DTD 21 ints 1 SY 45 sacks 935 tackles 18 FF

 

This defensive unit may not put the fear into offenses like it used to it still has a strong bite. The front seven will be strong against the run allowing Safety Troy Polamalu to focus on doing what he does best hitting like a line backer and covering the field. Even though Joey Porter is no longer with the unit they still have plenty of hitters with LBs Clark Haggans , James Farrior, and Larry Foote. This unit is still a #1 starting defensive unit for your fantasy team.

[Menudo]

Very well done Cliaz, quite impressive.

 

The transition is going to probably take a toll, but, this is still a very talented team. Last year, a lot went wrong, Roethlisberger played the opposite of his first two years, and they still finished at 8-8. I think 7-9 is too low for them, but, it is certainly possible. I expect 9-7 or 10-6, which in th AFC will still have them on the outside looking in at the playoffs.

 

Another thing I disagreed with is that I don't think you will see much of a change in their defensive philosophy. Tomlin might throw a few wrinkles in there, but, he has said many times that he goes with the "If it ain't broken, don't fix it" philosophy, and doesn't want to get in LeBeau's way.

 

As for Santonio as a sleeper, I agree with you. He is going to emerge, but, I don't think it will be to the level you are predicting. I don't see anyway other than injuries that Hines Ward isn't the leading receiver on this team.

 

Like I said, very good job. I just wanted to point out the few areas where I disagreed slightly.

[cliaz]

Like I said, very good job. I just wanted to point out the few areas where I disagreed slightly.

 

 

thanks. and there is nothing wrong with that. That is the whole point of these.