Sleeper RB of 2007!

[longshanks7]

so last week I asked a message board who everyone thought was the sleeper RB for 2007. I noticed a continuing trend throughout the picks. I saw a lot of people mentioning value and choosing the older (veteran RB) in 2 back systems... ie...

 

"I like JJ in Dallas as the value pick, and in keepers, he could be even better elsewhere."

 

so i did some research this past week into actual value players.

 

i also read an awesome article on chad johnson vs. tj houshmanzadeh.... ill post it "I'm not saying TJ is a better receiver. He is not. But fantasy football is not simply a talent contest. It is first and foremost a numbers game. So why would I draft a less consistent receiver in the 2nd round of my draft, when I could have a more consistent receiver in the 4th round that will get me about the same amount of points? Consistency is king in head to head leagues, and TJ was all over CJ in that department in '06."

 

anyways, i went scouting around for something that would actually rank so called value and take into consideration draft pos. and consistancy.

 

thehuddle.com has something called consistancy rankings, which i thought was interesting, but did little very little for me in terms of value... the top 3 RBs were LJ, SJax, and Tomlinson. That seemed to me like the overall rankings rather than actual "value".

 

i also found another site called fantasyquants.com

they list a select number of value picks at each position. the top 3 RBs looked like:

 

K Jones (who i am high on)

Deuce

J Jones

 

seemed pretty cool.

 

im wondering if any has any other sources or idea for so called "value"?

[Bronco Billy]

I guess I'd disagree with a lot of that.

 

I'm just the opposite about the older RB in a RB tandem like Jones/Barber. RBs have some of the shortest learning curves of any position in the NFL. If Jones were capable of taking the featured RB job, why hasn't he done it already?

 

I'm always a big fan of talent over situation. Harrison outpointed Wayne last season. Holt outpointed Bruce. As much as I don't like CJ's character, he's still the more talented WR of the duo in CIN. You can get Housh later in the draft, but he shouldn't outscore CJ. In fact, as Housh gets more and more attention, it actually ought to help CJ, just like I feel Wayne's emergence as a legit WR threat of his own accord has pulled attention away from Harrison and would help attribute to his great year last year.

 

How much of a value pick is K Jones going to be if he doesn't see the field for a significant period of time. He's worth a flyer later in drafts when everyone is filling depth, but as of now no one knows what his health situation is going to be - and that hardly projects value. McAllister was at one time a top 5 FF pick - and for very good reason. Despite that (and I have him rostered), he still is limited as long as bush is healthy. And he's getting respect from FF owners - a lot of drafts have him going as a #2 FF RB. J Jones was addressed.

 

My feelings, for what they are worth.

 

If you want people talking about value picks, start a thread on who you consider to be good values (instead of jumping on other MB's trendy picks), tell us all why you think so, and then ask us what we think about your selections and whose ours might be.

[Sgt. Ryan]

Thomas Jones. Dude is going in round 3 of mock drafts. And I have him in the top 10 RBs overall.

 

 

Im also a fan of Julius. He is a better back than Barber, and Big Bill isnt here playing mind games with him this yr.

[The Wolf]

Vernand Morency is my pick.

 

Mike McCarthy wants one runner to emerge. Morency is a one-cut runner; a natural in the Packers' zone-blocking scheme. He averaged 4.6 yards on 91 carries and scored two touchdowns.

 

Because he is 27 years old he he might never get another chance like this. From what I have read, he trained diligently this off-season, added eight pounds of muscle and seems focused on making the most of his opportunity. Since Jackson is already dinged up, I have to give Morency the edge this year. GB has an improving line and he could be a steal later in drafts.

 

I got him for $7 in a $400 salary cap auction a month ago.

 

His downside: he had some fumbling issues and has had trouble staying on the field. This sounds eerily reminiscent of a running back who was in Seattle before coming to GB: Ahman Green. Where they differ is that Green would try to run over a defender, whereas Morency has the moves to deke a player out.

 

IMO, let everyone bid big on Brandon Jackson or take him early in a draft...I'll go for the value pick here...Vernand Morency.

Edited July 16, 2007 by The Wolf

[Raging Alpaca]

I agree that there is some value to be had in the "older, less sexy" halves of RBBC this year. Both Deuce McAllister and Fred Taylor look to be 1,000 yd rushers, and will outperform their current ADP if they do so.

[The Wolf]

I agree that there is some value to be had in the "older, less sexy" halves of RBBC this year. Both Deuce McAllister and Fred Taylor look to be 1,000 yd rushers, and will outperform their current ADP if they do so.

 

Taylor is an ideal RB3 with some upside potential to be a RB2.

Edited July 16, 2007 by The Wolf

[longshanks7]

yes, so thats basically what i have noticed.... the older, less sexy players always are being undervalued, while the new hot tickets are always overrated....

 

i remember a couple years ago, i selected jj arrington in the 2nd round.... we all know how that did. but i then got tiki and curtis martin in later rounds and hit huge!

 

i think thats what this fantasyquant.com data is showing, and even know i cant read their math completely, it seems cool. the rookies, like adrian peterson (every year) are taken way too early.

 

for example, last year, ahman green / fred taylor were steals late....

[Bring Back Pat!!!]

yes, so thats basically what i have noticed.... the older, less sexy players always are being undervalued, while the new hot tickets are always overrated....

 

i remember a couple years ago, i selected jj arrington in the 2nd round.... we all know how that did. but i then got tiki and curtis martin in later rounds and hit huge!

 

i think thats what this fantasyquant.com data is showing, and even know i cant read their math completely, it seems cool. the rookies, like adrian peterson (every year) are taken way too early.

 

for example, last year, ahman green / fred taylor were steals late....

 

 

That's twice now, mentioning another site. I call spam.

[Bill Swerski]

Thomas Jones. Dude is going in round 3 of mock drafts. And I have him in the top 10 RBs overall.

 

I agree. This guy is VERY talented and has been able to stay relatively healthy for a few years now.

[DexterDew]

since we can all agree that outperfoming your draft position as the definition of value, a couple of proven RBs jump out to me:

 

Deuce

Edge

T Jones

J Lewis

A Green

Jordan

Taylor

 

None of these picks are "sexy" but I believe they help solidify your RB depth...

[Pope Flick]

I think Portis remains dinged, and like Ladell Betts to be a potential sleeper - in the same way McCallister was a bit of a sleeper last year, going in rounds 4-6 having been a 1st rounder in 2003/4.

[The Next Generation]

That's twice now, mentioning another site. I call spam.

 

Agreed. The ONLY reason for the post.

[peepinmofo]

That's twice now, mentioning another site. I call spam.

 

I thought the same thing after the 1st post.

[longshanks7]

i agree on a lot of these

 

Deuce

Edge

T Jones

J Lewis

A Green

Jordan

Taylor

 

i think you can indeeed throw in

 

julius

k jones

warrick dunn

[Outshined]

They have Michael Vick atop their QB rankings as the best QB.

 

Looking at our QB list, we advise owners to target the top 3 QB's based on the Val Ratio

[Scooby]

Brandon Jax will take over sooner than later

Lorenzo Booker b/c Brown can't stay healthy

Tatum Bell b/c of Jones' dreaded Lis Franc

digging deep here-Michael Bush / Chris Henry, maybe save for last rounds?

[i_am_the_swammi]

You want a real sleeper? Try RB Tony Hunt of the Philadelphia Eagles.

 

Many experts are high on Westbrook, based on his career-year last year and the fact that the Eagles might be finally balancing their offense, seeing how much 2nd-half success they had running the ball last year.

 

As a homer, I love what Westbrook does, and he will no doubt be the stat-leader running the ball for the Birds. But here are some downsides:

 

1. With no other real alternative last year, Westbrook was leaned-on to a much greater degree than any of his prior years, especially once McNabb went down. Expect that to change this season, based on the philospohy that eventually Westbrook will breakdown if given that load for a full season.

 

2. Westbrook got all the goalline carries last year, again mostly because there was no real #2 option.

 

3. Historically with McNabb healthy, Reid has liked to throw the ball more often near the goalline (much to the fan's displeasure)...not so much with Garcia, which is why Westbrook put up some killer stats down the stretch. However, if the Mcnabb-trend resurfaces, it will no doubt hurt Westbrooks production.

 

That being said, there are many locals that beleive Hunt will play a large role in this offense, particularly in short-yardage situations. If he can prove to be solid on short-yardage attempts during the preseason, it wouldn't shock me one bit to see him take on a Marion Barber/Brandon Jacobs role near the goalline as the season progresses.

 

400-500 yards, 6-8 TDs is not out of the question for Hunt...and if Westbrook does indeed return to his injury-prone ways, he could be a phenomenal value for someone that may not be drafted in many leagues.

Edited July 16, 2007 by i_am_the_swammi

[Pope Flick]

You want a real sleeper? Try RB Tony Hunt of the Philadelphia Eagles.

 

Many experts are high on Westbrook, based on his career-year last year and the fact that the Eagles might be finally balancing their offense, seeing how much 2nd-half success they had running the ball last year.

 

As a homer, I love what Westbrook does, and he will no doubt be the stat-leader running the ball for the Birds. But here are some downsides:

 

1. With no other real alternative last year, Westbrook was leaned-on to a much greater degree than any of his prior years, especially once McNabb went down. Expect that to change this season, based on the philospohy that eventually Westbrook will breakdown if given that load for a full season.

 

2. Westbrook got all the goalline carries last year, again mostly because there was no real #2 option.

 

3. Historically with McNabb healthy, Reid has liked to throw the ball more often near the goalline (much to the fan's displeasure)...not so much with Garcia, which is why Westbrook put up some killer stats down the stretch. However, if the Mcnabb-trend resurfaces, it will no doubt hurt Westbrooks production.

 

That being said, there are many locals that beleive Hunt will play a large role in this offense, particularly in short-yardage situations. If he can prove to be solid on short-yardage attempts during the preseason, it wouldn't shock me one bit to see him take on a Marion Barber/Brandon Jacobs role near the goalline as the season progresses.

 

400-500 yards, 6-8 TDs is not out of the question for Hunt...and if Westbrook does indeed return to his injury-prone ways, he could be a phenomenal value for someone that may not be drafted in many leagues.

 

If Hunt crashes out liek most other Penn State backs, I think your 7th rounder: Nate Ilaoa might be the sleeper. That kid led the #1 offense last year in yardage, and is downright Nasti.

[DexterDew]

NIce flier info Swami!

 

I'll throw out another deep sleeper, especially in a TD heavy league: Mike Bell. I am not 100% sold on T Henry's ability to stay healthy all year, plus he is not the proto typical short yardage back. Bell scored eight times last year as an undrafted rookie RB, and i admit i drank some Kool Aid last year, but watching him run, he was a better back than T Bell. Football Outsiders showed that in 2006, the Success Rate for M Bell was 51%, which placed him 11th out of all RBs with a minimum of 75 rushes. Travis Henry had a Success Rate of 43% to finish 36th, and T Bell had a SC of 40% to finish 44th. M Bell also had more TDs than either Henry or T Bell (8 to 7 to 2), but on far fewer attemps.

 

I won't discount that the Broncos paid a lot of money to get T Henry, and that their OL is better than TEN... I'm just suggesting that you keep M Bell on your radar in deep leagues...

[Bronco Billy]

Tatum Bell b/c of Jones' dreaded Lis Franc

 

FYI - Calhoun has publicly stated he is 100%. Talk about a sneaky last round pick in a draft...

[TDFFFreak]

Thomas Jones. Dude is going in round 3 of mock drafts. And I have him in the top 10 RBs overall.

Im also a fan of Julius. He is a better back than Barber, and Big Bill isnt here playing mind games with him this yr.

Good info here. He's not exactly "off the radar", but people aren't taking him until 3rd and 4th round and I think he could be up with the tier 2 RBs this season.

[yo mama]

Thomas Jones. Dude is going in round 3 of mock drafts. And I have him in the top 10 RBs overall.

Im also a fan of Julius. He is a better back than Barber, and Big Bill isnt here playing mind games with him this yr.

I like Julius, who is typically available in the mid-5th to early-6th rounds of a 12 team draft. New coaching staff should tailor the run scheme to suit him a bit more than the Tuna did. That should help. MB3 will still vulture TDs, though.

 

I'm less high on Thomas Jones. Love the player, but he ain't puttin' up the same numbers this year. The 06 Bears were a better team than the 07 Jets will be, and the Jets have like the third worst schedule against the run this season. I still think he'll do well, but not well enough to spend a 2nd - or even early 3rd - round pick on him. If I'm drafting early this years I'd much rather have a top 3 RB, followed by any two of the top 6 WRs (Holt, Owens, Wayne, Harrison, Steve Smith, or Ocho Cinco). And if that isn't possible, I'd rather have Benson more than Jones as my #2 RB.

Edited July 16, 2007 by yo mama

[yo mama]

As far as true late-round flyers go, here are the guys I'm targeting, who have been available in virtually all of my (many) recent mocks in the 14th round or later:

- Michael Bennett: I'm not really a fan, but that minor gamble could pay off huge if LJ holds out.

- Anthony Thomas: yeah, Marshawn is probably the starter. But we've seen nothing of pre-season yet. And I'll spend a 15th rounder on Thomas to see those long odds. If they don't pay off, I'll just dump him for my first waiver wire pick up.

- Sammy Morris: Hey, Maroney is great and all, but health is an issue for that guy. Shoulder surgery for "fairly significant damage" in the off-season... after only splitting carries last year. I dunno, Morris could see some carries this year, IMO. Sure, he was wearing a red shirt of his own just a while ago (for an undisclosed reason), but was still participating in team drills. Morris proved a lot last season while subbing for Ronnie Brown, and would, IMO, have a better supporting cast in NE this year than he had in MIA last year. Again, as late-found flyers go, Morris is a worthy candidate.

- Adrian Peterson (CHI): Benson owners "should" be drafting Peterson around the 13th round or so. If they don't, Peterson is worth a flyer. Benson has been nicked up twice in two years sufficient to miss time and Peterson would likely at least split carries in his absence; maybe more. But on the run-first Bears' team, that'd still be good enough to justify a roster spot. 14th round or later, and Peterson is a great selection.

Edited July 16, 2007 by yo mama

[yo mama]

As far as other late round flyers, at QB I like:

- Pennington, who is falling way too far;

- Grossman, who started strong last year but degenerated. however, by all accounts he's spent the offseason working on improving his mechanics, which many feel are the primary source of his problems. Better decision-making and few(er) mistakes spells fewer turnovers and longer drives on offense. So I fully expect to see Grossman improve on his stats from last year.

- Jason Campbell is a great super-late QB. By all accounts he's had a great camp and is gellin' with S. Moss & Co. Opposing DEFs will respect the Portis/Betts run combo well enough that Cambell isn't going to be asked to win games on his own. But he'll probably put up serviceable stats in most games. I like him best as a #3 QB, but he could also do well to back up someone like Brady or Manning, as their neigh invulnerable to begin with. Campbell faces off against Green Bay during Manning's week 6 bye, and PHI during Brady's week 10 bye. I can go for that.

- J.P. Losman, who can't do much worse, but could do better, though only as a #3 on any of my squads.

- Garcia is another who could surprise, and may back up your stud QB just fine. Tampa Bay has like the 6th easiest schedule against the pass this year, and you've gotta figure the Bucs will play better this year than last. Couldn't get much worse, that's for sure. And Garcia was "good enough" in PHI last year that at least he shouldn't be a liability.

Edited July 17, 2007 by yo mama

[Jackass]

Good thread.

 

In regards to JJ, his percentage of scoring inside the 5 or so is atrocious since he's been in the league. I watched a few games last year where he just had no clue. I just don't see how a new coach or new team would help him all that much.