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Here's a hypothetical for you


Bronco Billy
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Suppose:

 

A ) Priest Holmes is cleared to practice and has a solid training camp & preseason,

 

B ) Kolby Smith shows some ability to run in the pros during training camp & preseason, and

 

C ) Larry Johnson carries out his threat to hold out and continues to do so right through the start of the season.

 

You are in your redraft the Saturday before the 1st full week of regular season games.

 

Where do you put Johnson, Holmes, & Smith on your cheatsheet?

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Hold on one second let me go get my son, as he thinks he's Batman.... :D

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Suppose:

 

A ) Priest Holmes is cleared to practice and has a solid training camp & preseason,

 

B ) Kolby Smith shows some ability to run in the pros during training camp & preseason, and

 

C ) Larry Johnson carries out his threat to hold out and continues to do so right through the start of the season.

 

You are in your redraft the Saturday before the 1st full week of regular season games.

 

Where do you put Johnson, Holmes, & Smith on your cheatsheet?

 

I don't touch any of them as this team has a rough sched I believe, have lost too much, is continuing to age and Batman said don't argue with his logic as he'll KAPOW!! you with a deadly right hook. Someone will take them before I am willing to.

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I don't touch any of them as this team has a rough sched I believe

Someone will take them before I am willing to.

 

So you are saying that none of the 3 RBs mentioned above in the scenario presented have any value to you whatsoever?

 

That how leagues are lost right there. You have to have a squeal point where it is at a certain point in the draft and those guys are available that you'd be willing to burn a draft pick on at least one of them. Where is your squeal point for each one?

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As of right now all are not on my draft board. IMO there's too much risk associated with each player and I'm not willing to take such a question mark where they'll be drafted. LJ is not and should not play another down without getting paid for the work he does. The Chiefs aren't going to get a 1,2,3 as I don't see a team that would be willing to give that much for him knowing that he's taken a lot of hits in the last two years, in no way saying that he hasn't been a beast these last two years and nearly indistructable. And with Holmes now "ready" it could get ugly as the Chiefs may feel that the need of LJ is as large as it was. Holmes is intriguing but a neck injury IMO is the scariest injury for a player. You're talking about your nervous system and there's no way he can bring that same attitude he had when he was fantasy gold back that quickly. He's gotta be confident that he can take the hit and keep going and so far he hasn't. Smith did an ok job of filling in for Michael Bush but there's no way he will simply boot Michael Bennett to the side, as Herm has repeatedly brought up his name when questions are asked about the running game. Just my opinion of course, but there's too much upside with players that will be drafted around the same area for me.

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So you are saying that none of the 3 RBs mentioned above in the scenario presented have any value to you whatsoever?

 

That how leagues are lost right there. You have to have a squeal point where it is at a certain point in the draft and those guys are available that you'd be willing to burn a draft pick on at least one of them. Where is your squeal point for each one?

Given the scenario above:

 

If LJ was still on the board in the 5th round, I'd take him.

If Priest or the KC RB that has asserted himself was on the board in the 8th+ rounds, I'd have to take a shot.

 

This is just off the top of my head. Even given that scenario, I still don't like the KC offense this season. Their QB won't be doing them many favors on 3rd down to keep drives going. They have no credible deep threat and Herm Edwards is running the show.

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I think you would still have to take LJ pretty early, likely before the 5th round. I'm not absolutely sure what lifestyle LJ has, but I think it might be safe to assume that he can't afford to take this thing too far out. So, if the holdout had lasted that long (and it might) I would probably have no problem drafting him at a steep discount.

 

This could be a very interesting scenario in this years draft indeed. Probably a crucial scenario.

Edited by rattsass
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I don't touch any of them as this team is continuing to age

 

How so? at CB maybe, but where else? This team is getting younger, not older :D

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Suppose:

 

A ) Priest Holmes is cleared to practice and has a solid training camp & preseason,

 

B ) Kolby Smith shows some ability to run in the pros during training camp & preseason, and

 

C ) Larry Johnson carries out his threat to hold out and continues to do so right through the start of the season.

 

You are in your redraft the Saturday before the 1st full week of regular season games.

 

Where do you put Johnson, Holmes, & Smith on your cheatsheet?

 

I'd still draft Johnson pretty high, if he was there in the late 2nd early 3rd I'd take him, but I'm a homer. Holmes I wouldn't touch until round 6-8 and that's even assuming he is assigned the starting role cause LJ won't report. As for Kolby, who I think has a shot to prove he can be a NFL RB someday, theres no way I'd even draft him, as someone pointed out Michael Bennett is the #2 and until Priest unseats him it will stay that way. I'd take a flier on Bennett in round 10 or lower, but honestly I'd probably just stay away.

Edited by Hat Trick
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Well certainly none of them are first rounders.

 

A lot would depend on how I felt about the team I was drafting and who else was available on the board. It becomes much easier to draft Larry Johnson in the 3rd round if I have LT or Stephen Jackson ... this is a move that could pay off in a very BIG way late in the season when I will be on a playoff run.

 

Priest Holmes has an injury history and has not played in over a year. Even with a solid training camp and pre-season I would not draft him until I had most of my core starters ... that means 6th round at the VERY earliest.

 

With Priest looking "solid" and LJ likely to be there some time during the season Kolby Smith is a very late round flier.

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Larry Johnson would remain very high on my board (I don't see him lasting past round 2 in most cases no matter what - someone will take a chance on him as a RB2 with some risk and amazing upside)... I probably wouldn't draft Priest at all, but I guess I'd have to wait and see if he is actually going to take some hard hits and hold up during training camp (I'm very skeptical of his return here though)... Bennett would be a must have handcuff if I did end up drafting LJ, and Kolby would be interesting in the late rounds, but I wouldn't want to put myself in a position to have to rely on the rookie.

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Priest is done, and the Chiefs are trying to use him as leverage to get Larry Johnson resigned cheaper, or in camp without a new deal. k Smith isnt the answer, and with that reduced OL now in KC, he may put up numbers like Carnell Williams did last yr in Tampa. sh*tty at best.

 

Me, I draft LJ top 5 regardless. He isnt holding out reg season games, and we be a top 5 player no matter where he plays.

 

The rest, I leave for chief fans to draft.

Edited by Sgt. Ryan
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Larry Johnson is still a first rounder. The question marks surrounding his hold out and the state of the Chiefs O are still the main concerns. These have not changed at all this off-season and he is still top 3 in nearly every mock I have seen.

 

Personally, I put no stock into Priest Holmes coming back as a viable, productive part of the offense.

 

LJ will not get the nearly 460 touches he had last season for sure, but to put him as anything but a first rounder is sheer FF blasphemy.

Edited by The Wolf
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All I know is I am spending today trying to figure out what to do with this mess. This is a SERIOUS mess because it potentially involves what could be a top 3 RB or something that is just really screwed up. I would LOVE to see LJ get traded away and just clear this all up or to sign but you know this will get worse before it gets better because LJ wants LT type money and KC ain't going to pay it.

 

And Priest is one big hit to the neck from drinking through a straw while someone else holds the cup for the rest of his life.

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All I know is I am spending today trying to figure out what to do with this mess. This is a SERIOUS mess because it potentially involves what could be a top 3 RB or something that is just really screwed up. I would LOVE to see LJ get traded away and just clear this all up or to sign but you know this will get worse before it gets better because LJ wants LT type money and KC ain't going to pay it.

 

And Priest is one big hit to the neck from drinking through a straw while someone else holds the cup for the rest of his life.

 

I hate to say it but it is true...and he's too nice a guy to have that happen to him. He really should just walk away. What does he have left to prove?

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I hate to say it but it is true...and he's too nice a guy to have that happen to him. He really should just walk away. What does he have left to prove?

 

Priest behind this OL would be exposed. Priest in baltimnore was an ordinary, below average back. You put him in KC behind that great OL, and he became the #1 fantasy RB in the game. LJ came in and showed Priest up as well. My take, Id love KC to trade LJ to my Boys for their 1st round pick next yr. Dallas still owns Clevelands, which may be #1 overall. and could get a 3rd rounder for Marion Barber or Julius Jones from another team. jerry Jones would pay LJ. No question about it, and he would excel here.

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Priest behind this OL would be exposed. Priest in baltimnore was an ordinary, below average back.

 

No, he wasn't ordinary or below average. His ypc as a featured RB was superb and provided some insight that he could be a very good RB if he went somewhere where the HC didn't have his head up his ass.

 

Post edit - some numbers to back that up:

 

With BAL, 11 games with more than 15 carries

 

In those 11 games, he averaged 118 rushing ypg, 4.98 ypc, added 15.6 ypg receiving, and averaged .73 TDs/game.

 

Extrapolate those numbers into a 16 game season as a featured RB, and you get:

 

380 carries for 1891 yds rushing, 250 yds receiving, and 12 TDs.

 

That's some damn solid work, even though he never got Billick's trust to be the workhorse. The clues were there that Holmes had something in him to be something special if he were turned loose. All it took was an injury to Richardson in KC the season Holmes moved over there and the rest was history.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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What does he have left to prove?

 

I keep asking myself this and I think it more comes down to maybe he doesn't want to be remembered as leaving the game because of injury. If that's not it then I'm not sure why he'd come back. He stated many of times when he was setting records that he wished to retire ealry ala Sanders and Robert Smith or Tiki, so that's what's puzzling me the most. It could also be for the money, he plays or even is a backup for the next two years and he still takes home a cool $1.6 mill. Maybe the Chiefs said show up or retire or give us a decision, who knows.

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I keep asking myself this and I think it more comes down to maybe he doesn't want to be remembered as leaving the game because of injury. If that's not it then I'm not sure why he'd come back. He stated many of times when he was setting records that he wished to retire ealry ala Sanders and Robert Smith or Tiki, so that's what's puzzling me the most. It could also be for the money, he plays or even is a backup for the next two years and he still takes home a cool $1.6 mill. Maybe the Chiefs said show up or retire or give us a decision, who knows.

 

Taking home a cool $1.6 mill doesn't mean much if he becomes the next Christopher Reeves.

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No, he wasn't ordinary or below average. His ypc as a featured RB was superb and provided some insight that he could be a very good RB if he went somewhere where the HC didn't have his head up his ass.

 

Yup, I'd have to agree with this more than he was ordinary or below average. Lewis has done jack since that 2000 yard season meanwhile Holmes exploded after that. Sure the O-Line was superb but he was patient behind the line and exploded through the hole, shifty and was hard to bring down. I ill still say it to this day, LJ coming into the league without a mentor like Holmes in front of him would not have had the success he's had thus far, period.

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Yup, I'd have to agree with this more than he was ordinary or below average. Lewis has done jack since that 2000 yard season meanwhile Holmes exploded after that. Sure the O-Line was superb but he was patient behind the line and exploded through the hole, shifty and was hard to bring down. I ill still say it to this day, LJ coming into the league without a mentor like Holmes in front of him would not have had the success he's had thus far, period.

 

OK, then...maybe this is why he and the Chiefs agreed to bring him back? With the LJ potential hold out, it could almost be as if he is more of an assistant coach than as a player.

 

Nah...that's silly. Just thinking out loud now.

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Taking home a cool $1.6 mill doesn't mean much if he becomes the next Christopher Reeves.

 

Well that's just a given. I'm not in his head and I can't tell you what he's thinking, but I'm trying to figure it out and he knows if he retires the Chiefs go after part of his signing bonus and maybe HE sees it as more important to have all that money vs. the risk he's taking by coming back. He has supposedly been medically evaluated and cleared, with the right clearance maybe he feels he's not at risk as much as we are lkead to believe.

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Larry Johnson is still a first rounder. The question marks surrounding his hold out and the state of the Chiefs O are still the main concerns. These have not changed at all this off-season and he is still top 3 in nearly every mock I have seen.

 

Personally, I put no stock into Priest Holmes coming back as a viable, productive part of the offense.

 

LJ will not get the nearly 460 touches he had last season for sure, but to put him as anything but a first rounder is sheer FF blasphemy.

What he said. Half the drafters in most local redraft leagues won't have a clue there's any kind of problem with Johnson, so he'll be gone by the time 1.06 rolls around.

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