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Fantasy Football: The Next Level


DMD
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Since ChiefDick pointed out that I have not been proactive enough in promoting my new book, I wanted to give you all a quick link to learn a little more about Fantasy Football: The Next Level.

 

It not only contains a wealth of tips, tools and techniques in an easy to read format, it also makes great gifts for people who are not in your league.

 

Check it out next time you are near a bookstore! I may be trailing Harry Potter but it ain't over till it's over...

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Did I mention I already picked up my copy :D According to my ranking in the huddle ladder league...I'm gonna need all the help I can get! Anyway great read so far, worth every penny! :D

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This is not the typical FF handbook; it is definitely not what I expected. Fantastic job DMD. :D When Huddlers finish reading it we should post reviews on Amazon.

 

Even my wife has been reading it :D

 

Good grief...there goes the neighborhood...!

Edited by The Wolf
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Wait... What is fantasy football? Im just here for the beer and cheese doodles!

Dad: Did you have something to do with this?

Kid: No

Dad: Riiiiiiiight

 

that commercial kills me

Edited by keggerz
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Hmmm and she just joined my league.

 

Sugar, she joined my local in 2003 and has made the playoffs every year since 2004. She and I have met head-to-head 7 times and I only hold a 4-3 advantage. -- and my 4th win (playoffs) should have been a loss, hands down. She does some unconventional things but she manages to do well. I study and plan my butt off and always seem to finish 7-6.

 

Go figure! :D

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Sugar, she joined my local in 2003 and has made the playoffs every year since 2004. She and I have met head-to-head 7 times and I only hold a 4-3 advantage. -- and my 4th win (playoffs) should have been a loss, hands down. She does some unconventional things but she manages to do well. I study and plan my butt off and always seem to finish 7-6.

 

Go figure! :D

 

Well, I'm somewhat unconventional-let's just say it's good I'm not in a league that charges for ww transactions. It is to my detriment but add and drops is what makes the game fun for me.

 

I'm glad your wife joined to add some good competition to the league.

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I have to say, as a 9 year veteran of fantasy football, I found Fantasy Football: The Next Level, to be by far the most purely useful book on the subject I have ever read. Coming from a practical "teach a man to fish" standpoint, the book provides any FF owner, from novice to know-it-all, with many great tools to improve their game. I found the info on the importance and best practices for creating your own projections to be extremely helpful, something I am implementing this season. All is delivered in David's winning, humorous style, which makes for a delightful read. If you haven't already, pick it up.

 

Expanded review here.

Edited by Bonehand
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I have to say, as a 9 year veteran of fantasy football, I found Fantasy Football: The Next Level, to be by far the most purely useful book on the subject I have ever read. Coming from a practical "teach a man to fish" standpoint, the book provides any FF owner, from novice to know-it-all, with many great tools to improve their game. I found the info on the importance and best practices for creating your own projections to be extremely helpful, something I am implementing this season. All is delivered in David's winning, humorous style, which makes for a delightful read. If you haven't already, pick it up.

 

Two snaps and a circle!!!

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My sixteen year old commandeered it before I could finish it.

Had to do a search-and-rescue . :D:D

 

Good thing we're co-managers, otherwise I would have had to keep it under the mattress with my other maga...

....er...BIBLE!!

:wacko:

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I picked up my copy today, haven't read it all yet. My 13 year old is going to read it before his first solo draft this season. Today he has been feverishly working on his own projections for the season ahead.

 

I wish there had been a book like this 15 years ago, my kid is going to learn a lot of the stuff it took me years to learn in a matter of a few hours!

 

Nice work DMD!

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I just tore the meniscus tendon in my knee and was bed ridden for a day. Hubby asked if he could get me anything and off he went to Barnes and Noble.

 

Only August 5th and already we have people on IR. :D

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Since ChiefDick pointed out that I have not been proactive enough in promoting my new book, I wanted to give you all a quick link to learn a little more about Fantasy Football: The Next Level.

 

It not only contains a wealth of tips, tools and techniques in an easy to read format, it also makes great gifts for people who are not in your league.

 

Check it out next time you are near a bookstore! I may be trailing Harry Potter but it ain't over till it's over...

 

DMD, I have to echo what others have said about the book. I got it a few days ago and I'm almost done reading it, and this is as excited as I've been for the FF season to start since I started playing. I already had somewhat of a foundation in some of the concepts like tiering but the book really connects the dots for me. I now have more confidence going into my drafts because I know the tools and concepts are valid and I can actually pull them off. I can't say the same about some other books and methods I've read.

 

A few questions:

 

1. In the book you talk a lot about strength of schedule when ranking players, but at the same time you point out that the studs are bigger than the schedule. So I'm curious about how much of a factor SOS was when ranking RBs for the Huddle; at what point does schedule start to factor into the rank? Obviously for the top tier it is not much of a consideration, but what about the second tier and beyond? How much was SOS used to rank a player up or down a notch or two? Or should I look at the rankings only as your opinion of each player's talent, situation and opportunity, then tweak based on SOS?

 

2. Regarding the LAG method: let me use a ridiculous scenario and say you are drafting 8th in a 10 team league where passing TDs = 6 points and passing yards are 25yds/pt., and 3 of the first 7 picks are QBs and you have reason to believe that at least half of the picks after you will be QB as well. The other 4 picks were RBs. Do you scrap conventional wisdom and take the last tier 1 QB or stay safe and take the 5th best RB? Or would you strictly use LAG (pick whichever player scores more points according to your graph no matter what)? I only ask because you offer LAG as a tool but also comment on all the starting position combos like RB-RB-WR etc., and I wonder which consideration holds more weight in your mind?

 

3. Taking the last question a step further, let's say LAG dictates that the #5 RB is more valuable than the #4 QB so you take the RB. In the next round LAG says an RB or WR is worth more than the #6 QB, so you skip the QB position again and end up drafting the 10th best QB in some later round. Are you unconcerned because you still ended up with players at other positions that will score more points, or is QB now a weakness since you took the worst starter? Just trying to understand how much you stick with LAG and your starting position preferences (like starting RB-RB-WR), when the rest of the league is acting screwy? Do you sometimes have to chase the position runs even though you disagree with what they are doing, just so you can get a decent player at the position they are chasing? I think I know the answer but I would love to read your analysis of this situation.

 

Thanks for a great book and all of your expertise on this site, much appreciated. :D

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1. In the book you talk a lot about strength of schedule when ranking players, but at the same time you point out that the studs are bigger than the schedule. So I'm curious about how much of a factor SOS was when ranking RBs for the Huddle; at what point does schedule start to factor into the rank? Obviously for the top tier it is not much of a consideration, but what about the second tier and beyond? How much was SOS used to rank a player up or down a notch or two? Or should I look at the rankings only as your opinion of each player's talent, situation and opportunity, then tweak based on SOS?

 

When I rank the running backs, it is done primarily in the context of the projections (balanced as they are with risk, upside, consistency and reliability) and those projected stats will consider the schedule. For a top RB, they would likely not change it much UNLESS it was one of the extremes for EOS. Basically, the only tweaking done to an elite player is if he has one of the very worst or very best schedules in the league and even then - it's not all that much. I take into account a lot of variables when I project which is why the process takes me well over a month to complete. The schedule is only one but really the main use of it as a tool is to determine who objectively will face one of the extremes and then adjust from that. The better the player, the less you need to adjust. Tomlinson? Probably none at all in any case. Those RBs outside the top 15 - a definite consideration.

 

2. Regarding the LAG method: let me use a ridiculous scenario and say you are drafting 8th in a 10 team league where passing TDs = 6 points and passing yards are 25yds/pt., and 3 of the first 7 picks are QBs and you have reason to believe that at least half of the picks after you will be QB as well. The other 4 picks were RBs. Do you scrap conventional wisdom and take the last tier 1 QB or stay safe and take the 5th best RB? Or would you strictly use LAG (pick whichever player scores more points according to your graph no matter what)? I only ask because you offer LAG as a tool but also comment on all the starting position combos like RB-RB-WR etc., and I wonder which consideration holds more weight in your mind?

 

This is EXACTLY why I do not buy into some of the player valuation systems. They purport to tell you who to take based on the number without taking into account the realities of the draft as it unfolds. Doing a LAG will show you what the difference is likely to be between getting a tier one QB or waiting on a tier two QB. It will show you the relative value compared to RBs. You then adjust your strategy according to what is going on. If I saw that tier one QBs had a very high value and that waiting on a RB1 for a round nets out a higher total points, then I might take the QB (though in reality I have never seen a scoring system that would do this). The value of a LAG is to show you how quickly value declines in a position and how it compared to another position. It shows you basically where you should consider grabbing your QB, TE, WR and DEF because everyone will always take RBs. And it will show you the decline in points in waiting. The intent is to arm you with the knowledge of how players are valued as a position so that you can react to anything in your draft - surprising runs on a position or when a player falls. I would always recommend going into a draft with a general strategy and always be ready to shift that strategy to address how the draft unfolds.

 

 

3. Taking the last question a step further, let's say LAG dictates that the #5 RB is more valuable than the #4 QB so you take the RB. In the next round LAG says an RB or WR is worth more than the #6 QB, so you skip the QB position again and end up drafting the 10th best QB in some later round. Are you unconcerned because you still ended up with players at other positions that will score more points, or is QB now a weakness since you took the worst starter? Just trying to understand how much you stick with LAG and your starting position preferences (like starting RB-RB-WR), when the rest of the league is acting screwy? Do you sometimes have to chase the position runs even though you disagree with what they are doing, just so you can get a decent player at the position they are chasing? I think I know the answer but I would love to read your analysis of this situation.

 

Again, I won't stick 100% to a LAG as you describe it because that must be balanced with how a draft unfolds. The goal is to create a total team that has the optimal set of scorers to combine for the highest weekly score possible. The impossible goal is to have the top player from every position and since that will not happen, how best you can create an optimal team while your league is grabbing players as well. Just because a player has the highest LAG value position doesn't necessarily mean taking him there will result in the best overall team. You have to balance that with the way the draft will unfold to build the most complete set of starters possible. I always have a plan going into a draft and it is re-evaluated and possibly changed with every round. I use LAGs for auctions too to help me know how to value players and while I always have a plan going into an auction, it never ever happens exactly to plan because some players go too high and some players are steals. LAGs let you know how players are valued and compared across positions to make those decisions with every pick and be able to make the adjustments as the draft or auction unfolds.

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2. Regarding the LAG method: let me use a ridiculous scenario and say you are drafting 8th in a 10 team league where passing TDs = 6 points and passing yards are 25yds/pt.

 

Follow up: My above scenario applies to NFL.com scoring. I just completed a LAG for this league and I made some interesting observations:

 

  • LT is the only player more valuable than Peyton if you adhere strictly to LAG.

    The next 5 QBs outscored or equalled the #4 RB. :D

    The top defense was only outscored by the #1QB and the #1-3 RBs last year. :D:wacko::wacko:

    After the top two defenses, you "plummet" into #7 RB territory. But even the worst starting defenses were equal to a top tier WR.

    The WR line is the flattest of all, dropping only 40 points from #1 to #10, and only another 25 more points from #11 to #20.

    By comparison, RBs dropped 244 points from 1 to 10, then ~50 from 11 to 20. Obviously LT skews that a lot, but it is clear why RB is the most coveted position.

 

From this I would glean the following:

  • In the first round, my top choices would be a top 3 RB or Peyton. If they are gone I would still go RB because the other guys are unlikely to start a run on QBs and the drop to the next tier of RBs is big.

    Then in the second round I might take a QB if I didn't get Peyton, because QBs 2-6 will likely outscore all but the top 4 RBs.

    Or, if the other guys are sticking to RBs/WRs, I might take another RB and take the #3 or 4 QB in the third round and still have an advantage.

    I would be strongly tempted to draft both the Ravens and Bears around the 4th and 5th rounds because one of them is likely to repeat their dominance and having the top defense is a HUGH advantage in this league. If they both prove to be top defenses and I'm smoking the other teams, can you say, trade bait??

    Further to that point, I don't see how having Peyton (or even Brady, Brees or Palmer) and the top defense plus a top 10 RB does not guarantee you a trophy in this league. Those 3 alone are worth around ~800 points, while the "average" RB-RB-WR team might only get around 650 for those three positions. The only team likely to touch me would be if someone got LT, then lucked into a sleeper top 10 RB in a late round. But he would still need a solid QB and defense to compete with my team.

    And even further to that point, drafting a top 10 RB, top 4 QB and top defense should not be too much of a challenge regardless of my draft position, because my above strategy is pretty much insane to anyone not familiar with LAG.

 

 

My one concern is WR. The LAG method is telling me that getting value at QB and RB is of paramount importance, as well as securing a top defense. So I could start the #12 and #24 WRs, or even worse, and still kick ass if those other positions are tops. But I have a nagging feeling that this can't be right.

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Follow up: My above scenario applies to NFL.com scoring. I just completed a LAG for this league and I made some interesting observations:
  • LT is the only player more valuable than Peyton if you adhere strictly to LAG.

    The next 5 QBs outscored or equalled the #4 RB. :D

    The top defense was only outscored by the #1QB and the #1-3 RBs last year. :D:wacko::wacko:

    After the top two defenses, you "plummet" into #7 RB territory. But even the worst starting defenses were equal to a top tier WR.

    The WR line is the flattest of all, dropping only 40 points from #1 to #10, and only another 25 more points from #11 to #20.

    By comparison, RBs dropped 244 points from 1 to 10, then ~50 from 11 to 20. Obviously LT skews that a lot, but it is clear why RB is the most coveted position.

From this I would glean the following:

  • In the first round, my top choices would be a top 3 RB or Peyton. If they are gone I would still go RB because the other guys are unlikely to start a run on QBs and the drop to the next tier of RBs is big.

    Then in the second round I might take a QB if I didn't get Peyton, because QBs 2-6 will likely outscore all but the top 4 RBs.

    Or, if the other guys are sticking to RBs/WRs, I might take another RB and take the #3 or 4 QB in the third round and still have an advantage.

    I would be strongly tempted to draft both the Ravens and Bears around the 4th and 5th rounds because one of them is likely to repeat their dominance and having the top defense is a HUGH advantage in this league. If they both prove to be top defenses and I'm smoking the other teams, can you say, trade bait??

    Further to that point, I don't see how having Peyton (or even Brady, Brees or Palmer) and the top defense plus a top 10 RB does not guarantee you a trophy in this league. Those 3 alone are worth around ~800 points, while the "average" RB-RB-WR team might only get around 650 for those three positions. The only team likely to touch me would be if someone got LT, then lucked into a sleeper top 10 RB in a late round. But he would still need a solid QB and defense to compete with my team.

    And even further to that point, drafting a top 10 RB, top 4 QB and top defense should not be too much of a challenge regardless of my draft position, because my above strategy is pretty much insane to anyone not familiar with LAG.

 

 

My one concern is WR. The LAG method is telling me that getting value at QB and RB is of paramount importance, as well as securing a top defense. So I could start the #12 and #24 WRs, or even worse, and still kick ass if those other positions are tops. But I have a nagging feeling that this can't be right.

 

I am working up something for LAGs in the next week you might like.

 

LAG's will show what the true value of positions are compared to each other. But just as important as the comparative value is how quickly the line descends. The steeper the decline, the more important to take an early player. The more flat the decline, the more you can wait without penalty. LAGs are always great to see what the true value is for QB, TE and DEF compared to RB and WR. Knowing how drafts will play out means taking the knowledge of things like DEF being surprisingly valuable and then scooping up a top one like CHI or BAL but not having to do it any earlier than you have to. Let's say that a top DEF is worthy of being a top 10 pick according to what they will score. The reality though is that no one will touch a DEF until maybe the 6th round or so (depending on the league) so you can gain even more value taking those RB, WR, QB or whatever before you take your defense and still get the high scorer that you wanted. DEF are always interesting since the scoring on them varies so much from league to league. RB, WR and TE are almost always the same - 1/10 yardage and six point TDs. The only question is if there are reception points. But QBs get varying scoring. I was just in a draft last WED night where the scoring for RB, WR and TE were standard with RP and yet QBs got only 1/30 yardage and 3 point TDs with TWO POINTS taken off for interception!!!! I took Rivers in like the ninth round and laughed at anyone touching one before the fifth round. Manning went in the first round and Brady/Brees went in the third. That's insane in that scoring.

 

It's all about understanding how positions are valued, how quickly they decine in value and then applying that wisdom to what is happening in a draft.

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