Penguinsfan Posted August 1, 2007 Share Posted August 1, 2007 I was thinking about this on my drive home tonight since the radio wasn't doing it for me (whoever at ESPN Radio is responsible for Amy Lawrence should be fired)... Has there ever been any sort of analysis done on the relaibility/accuracy of preseason rankings? To explain: I'm wondering, for example, what percentage of the predicted "Top 5" QBs actually finish in the top 5 in fantasy points for the year (Obviously I'd want to know about all the positions, but you get the idea). I understand that things like injuries will have some effects on the final stats for a given year, but I think if you had enough years worth of data, you could get a pretty good idea what the chances are... What got me thinking about this was the thread I was looking at earlier about getting in on the "QB run" in the draft. Well, if you know that historically 80% of the "Top 5" preseason QBs finish in the top 5, that may be something to consider in your decision - especially if your other option at that point is picking up RB #3 or WR #2, because you might also know that the RBs ranked in the 20-25 range or WRs ranking in the 10-15 range don't have as good of a chance of finishing in the same range (20-25, 10-15 respectively). Is this just a crazy idea, or do you think there's something to it? Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted August 1, 2007 Share Posted August 1, 2007 I have done articles in the past comparing where players were drafted on average compared to where they ended up but it slides around from season to season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penguinsfan Posted August 1, 2007 Author Share Posted August 1, 2007 Alright, well, thanks anyway... Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turf Smurf Posted August 1, 2007 Share Posted August 1, 2007 You want the analysis, then pay the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted August 1, 2007 Share Posted August 1, 2007 I think this is a wonderful idea. I know I've seen it once before, a few years ago. I guess the problem is that FF sources -- mostly Web sites -- are hesitant to run those metrics on their own rankings, since, without comparison, the numbers won't look very favorable. I know it wouldn't be too difficult to do, though. For all the regular NFL Draft mocks, there's a site out there that keeps 3-year averages of who mocks most accurately. So, I can't imagine this idea is too far from fruition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylive5 Posted August 1, 2007 Share Posted August 1, 2007 I think it would depend on your league scoring on where the player ends up in the ranking as compared to where they were ranked pre-season. I have a ranking sheet from Aug 10th last year.... and compared the top 15 in QB/RB/WR as to where they ended up in one of my leagues. There is a difference when comparing to a different league with different scoring. 2006 End Rank Player AUG 10th RankQB1 PManning 1 2 Brees 22 3 Bulger 74 Vick 135 Palmer 36 Kitna 217 Brady 28 Rivers 19 9 Favre 1410 Roethlisberger 2011 EManning 412 Young 34 13 McNabb 914 Grossman 3515 Pennington 31RB1 Tomlinson 22 Jackson 9 3 LJohnson 14 Westbrook 85 Gore 206 Parker 197 Barber 48 Jones-Drew 509 Bush 1710 RJohnson 1411 Betts 7112 Addai 3213 McAllister 3714 CTaylor 1515 Green 33WR 1 Harrison 8 2 Owens 63 Wayne 94 Driver 105 Holt 2 6 CJohnson 17 SSmith 58 Evans 34 9 RoyWilliams 1210 JWalker 3611 Houshmandzadeh 2112 AJohnson 1413 Coles 2314 Furrey NR15 Boldin 4 Not only that...there are always those few that produce either worse or better than they have in past years.... and those that come out of the woodwork and enter the top 15 when they weren't even considered a player. Think it would be hard to produce an article showing that you don't have a crystal ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted August 1, 2007 Share Posted August 1, 2007 I think that fantasy rankings are a good starting point in determining who will actually end up on your team, but no site is going to put up spot on predictions. There are simply too many variables for any system to account for during the course of a season. The key to winning at fantasy football is to have a few sources that have a good track record, and to have a very good instinct. It is the players responsibility to spot flaws in rankings and avoid or exploit them. I'm all for accountability, but I suspect that the Huddle need not publish a scorecard. Mr. Dorey has about the best track record in the Experts Poll for Fantasy Football Index of any of the site owners, and his rankings stem from those selections in most cases. And I know myself that I personally have rarely, well to be perfectly honest, never been wrong about anything I have ever written about so I'm pretty sure the Huddle is the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penguinsfan Posted August 1, 2007 Author Share Posted August 1, 2007 You want the analysis, then pay the price. Ummm, I have? Maybe I haven't seen the articles DMD referred to since they were done in the past and I've just recently started frequenting this place.... I guess the problem is that FF sources -- mostly Web sites -- are hesitant to run those metrics on their own rankings, since, without comparison, the numbers won't look very favorable. Ah yes, but on the other hand, those sites that have the most reliable preseason rankings would certainly be able to flaunt that fact... I have a ranking sheet from Aug 10th last year.... and compared the top 15 in QB/RB/WR as to where they ended up in one of my leagues. There is a difference when comparing to a different league with different scoring. True, each league does have different scoring systems. That would certainly complicate things a little, but at least a baseline number could be calculated... Still, looking at your rankings sheds a little light on what I was talking about. In your scoring system, only 4 of the top 10 QBs at the end of the season were ranked in the TOP 10 in preseason. On the other hand, 7 of the top 10 WRs at the end of the year were ranking in the top 10 preseason. To translate that to draft strategy, if I have a pick where I have a chance to get either a top 10 WR or a top 10 QB (assuming the top 3 or so from each group are gone), it would appear that my chances of success are much higher picking a WR in that slot. Granted, most people will say that's generally accepted as a fact, but if similar figures were available for players ranked in the 10-20 slots, the information might be pretty valuable. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted August 1, 2007 Share Posted August 1, 2007 Ah yes, but on the other hand, those sites that have the most reliable preseason rankings would certainly be able to flaunt that fact... So which site do you think is going to run the metrics for ALL other sites -- on the off chance they're going to end up with the best rankings? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 1, 2007 Share Posted August 1, 2007 (edited) So which site do you think is going to run the metrics for ALL other sites -- on the off chance they're going to end up with the best rankings? I can think of at least one that is absolutely loaded with stats nerds on its staff... Edited August 1, 2007 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penguinsfan Posted August 1, 2007 Author Share Posted August 1, 2007 I completely agree with you rattsass. One should not place the destiny of thier season in the hands of a piece of paper that some people you've never met put together. You have to be involved, do your research, trust your instincts, etc. Just to clarify: In no way am I "calling for accountability" from sites and magazines that post preseason rankings. I understand that they will not be perfect and don't expect them to be. What I'm talking about would be more of a drafting tool that one could use during their draft. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penguinsfan Posted August 1, 2007 Author Share Posted August 1, 2007 So which site do you think is going to run the metrics for ALL other sites -- on the off chance they're going to end up with the best rankings? Hey, I never said I had all the answers. I was just tossing ideas out there...You are right though. I guess it would have to be some sort of third party that would have to do all the analysis. BTW, I love the Socrates quote in your sig. I have a plaque hanging in my office that says "The unexamined life is not worth living." Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylive5 Posted August 1, 2007 Share Posted August 1, 2007 Ummm, I have? Maybe I haven't seen the articles DMD referred to since they were done in the past and I've just recently started frequenting this place....Ah yes, but on the other hand, those sites that have the most reliable preseason rankings would certainly be able to flaunt that fact... True, each league does have different scoring systems. That would certainly complicate things a little, but at least a baseline number could be calculated... Still, looking at your rankings sheds a little light on what I was talking about. In your scoring system, only 4 of the top 10 QBs at the end of the season were ranked in the TOP 10 in preseason. On the other hand, 7 of the top 10 WRs at the end of the year were ranking in the top 10 preseason. To translate that to draft strategy, if I have a pick where I have a chance to get either a top 10 WR or a top 10 QB (assuming the top 3 or so from each group are gone), it would appear that my chances of success are much higher picking a WR in that slot. Granted, most people will say that's generally accepted as a fact, but if similar figures were available for players ranked in the 10-20 slots, the information might be pretty valuable. Cheers So you want me to add the last five? I mean... I did give the top 15 already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penguinsfan Posted August 1, 2007 Author Share Posted August 1, 2007 So you want me to add the last five? I mean... I did give the top 15 already. No, not necessarily. I'm not really sure what I want. Truth be told, I don't have the time to do anything with the data if I had it sitting right in front of me. I was more asking if anything like I'm talking about has been done in the past or if people thought such a thing would even be useful. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 1, 2007 Share Posted August 1, 2007 I am actually about to start a thread on this....but the idea of rankings is their current value and the level of risk you take by drafting a certain player at a particular spot... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylive5 Posted August 1, 2007 Share Posted August 1, 2007 No, not necessarily. I'm not really sure what I want. Truth be told, I don't have the time to do anything with the data if I had it sitting right in front of me. I was more asking if anything like I'm talking about has been done in the past or if people thought such a thing would even be useful. Cheers I don't think any site out there tracks from year to year how they have done with pre-season rankings compared to end of season placement. It's all a crap shoot anyway since the dynamics of each payer and each team changes so much from year to year and even during the year. Might be useful for a person to track their own maybe... just to see how they are doing in their research/views/gut-feelings... but other than that don't think that going back really tells the story that most want for the current year. More of a "pat on the back" kind of thing I would think.... and since no one gets it completely right... who needs it. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROYALWITCHEESE Posted August 2, 2007 Share Posted August 2, 2007 I think it would depend on your league scoring on where the player ends up in the ranking as compared to where they were ranked pre-season. I have a ranking sheet from Aug 10th last year.... and compared the top 15 in QB/RB/WR as to where they ended up in one of my leagues. There is a difference when comparing to a different league with different scoring. 2006 End Rank Player AUG 10th RankQB1 PManning 1 2 Brees 22 3 Bulger 74 Vick 135 Palmer 36 Kitna 217 Brady 28 Rivers 19 9 Favre 1410 Roethlisberger 2011 EManning 412 Young 34 13 McNabb 914 Grossman 3515 Pennington 31RB1 Tomlinson 22 Jackson 9 3 LJohnson 14 Westbrook 85 Gore 206 Parker 197 Barber 48 Jones-Drew 509 Bush 1710 RJohnson 1411 Betts 7112 Addai 3213 McAllister 3714 CTaylor 1515 Green 33WR 1 Harrison 8 2 Owens 63 Wayne 94 Driver 105 Holt 2 6 CJohnson 17 SSmith 58 Evans 34 9 RoyWilliams 1210 JWalker 3611 Houshmandzadeh 2112 AJohnson 1413 Coles 2314 Furrey NR15 Boldin 4 Not only that...there are always those few that produce either worse or better than they have in past years.... and those that come out of the woodwork and enter the top 15 when they weren't even considered a player. Think it would be hard to produce an article showing that you don't have a crystal ball. That HAD to be PPR. In my non-PPR leagues AJohnosn was nowhere near 12th... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherDave Posted August 2, 2007 Share Posted August 2, 2007 Regardless, it boils down to speculative data that the owner and only the owner must mull over and come to their own conclusions. Whether it's 4 mags printed in April or well thought out data such as DMD provides-it's still up to the person assimulating this data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted August 2, 2007 Share Posted August 2, 2007 Let me save all of you a bunch of time and head scratching: Fantasy Football is 1% preparation and 99% luck. Thank you. Send your $19.99 straight to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylive5 Posted August 2, 2007 Share Posted August 2, 2007 That HAD to be PPR. In my non-PPR leagues AJohnosn was nowhere near 12th... Yes it was. Since I had no direction on just what scoring was being looked at I used one with PPR. However..... I did mention something about SCORING AND LEAGUE DIFFERENCES! *sigh* CD.... you want that paypal or snail mail? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted August 2, 2007 Share Posted August 2, 2007 CD.... you want that paypal or snail mail? Just drive it to me next time you pass through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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