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Running Back Sleepers


YoungBob
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Honestly, I'd prefer the site drop the whole "Sleeper" moniker in regards to this article. Instead, ask each writer to pick 1 RB who they thought would outperform their draft position from the 1-24 ADP range, 1 from the ADP 25-48 range, 1 RB from the 49-60, 1 RB from 61-84, and 1 RB from beyond that.

 

 

Or when writing define the terms of the word sleeper or any other. Many people are not talking about the same thing.

 

I have this problem when people term injured players as busts. If you have a broken leg(unless you're Travis Henry :D ) you're not going to be able to play.

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I get a kick out of reading about sleepers in magazines.

 

For example, Fanball mag have two staff members calling Romo a "sleeper" for Qbs. Dude played in the pro bowl last year.

 

Deuce McAllister is a RB sleeper.

Witten and McMichael are TE sleepers.

 

Ever hear of those guys?

Edited by MikesVikes
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I get a kick out of reading about sleepers in magazines.

 

For example, Fanball mag have two staff members calling Romo a "sleeper" for Qbs. Dude played in the pro bowl last year.

 

Deuce McAllister is a RB sleeper.

Witten and McMichael are TE sleepers.

 

Ever hear of those guys?

 

 

That may be the point. They are writing those to people who have never heard of McMichael or Witten. Hard to believe but many fantasy TV shows are so simple it makes you wonder who their target audience is.

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"Sleepers" is among the worst terms used in fantasy football. Do you mean a guy coming out of the woodwork? A guy that you expect to have a good year after a history of, or a year or two, of mediocrity? A guy that you expect will have a better year than most others expect?

 

I think that most persons with some knowledge of the game consider the prototypical sleeper to be a guy who came out of nowhere, like Colston or Jones-Drew last year.

 

To use it to describe a well-known guy who is going to have a better year than most expect seems kind of silly.

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How many "true" sleepers are there every year? Especially ones that have a real impact fantasy wise?

 

It is a short list.

 

So I ask those that seem to be hung on on the name of a feature: Would you rather us throw out the Demetrius Williams and the Jacoby Jones of the world, knowing full well we will be wrong 95% of the time, or would you rather us write about players that everyone probably knows about, but have a realistic chance of beating their draft position by a good margin? Where we figure to have a much better chance of plucking winners. Which is really more useful? I'm just asking

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How many "true" sleepers are there every year? Especially ones that have a real impact fantasy wise?

 

It is a short list.

 

So I ask those that seem to be hung on on the name of a feature: Would you rather us throw out the Demetrius Williams and the Jacoby Jones of the world, knowing full well we will be wrong 95% of the time, or would you rather us write about players that everyone probably knows about, but have a realistic chance of beating their draft position by a good margin? Where we figure to have a much better chance of plucking winners. Which is really more useful? I'm just asking

 

 

That depends on if you managed to hit with Frank Gore AND Marquis Colston last year :D

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How many "true" sleepers are there every year? Especially ones that have a real impact fantasy wise?

 

It is a short list.

 

So I ask those that seem to be hung on on the name of a feature: Would you rather us throw out the Demetrius Williams and the Jacoby Jones of the world, knowing full well we will be wrong 95% of the time, or would you rather us write about players that everyone probably knows about, but have a realistic chance of beating their draft position by a good margin? Where we figure to have a much better chance of plucking winners. Which is really more useful? I'm just asking

 

 

there is a realistic list of sleepers out there....without going as deep as, say "Tony Hunt"...

 

Norwood does count as a sleeper...but he should be the more obvious name of the bunch...

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Ahman Green and Willie Parker were both prototype sleepers...I got both of them right before they hit paydirt too (O:

Parker I actually went out on a limb for and traded a future 1st round pick (rookie draft in a dynasty league) and Lee Suggs to acquire him. Best trade I ever made.

 

Rudi Johnson would be another one. I had him for a week but then dropped him for some running back who looked good for St. Louis for about a week.

 

Hell I can remember way back as a sophomore in college picking up both Curtis Martin AND Terrell Davis off of waivers IN THE SAME YEAR! This was before internet fantasy football even existed and we were just charting the results by hand...

Edited by Crazysight
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Guys I have my eyes on right now as deep sleepers (for deep dynasty leagues only):

 

Derrick Ross: Has a great combination of size and speed, and was the co-MVP of NFL Europe this off-season.

 

Alvin Banks: Decent combination of size and speed, though battled some injuries in college. Has been compared to Curtis Martin.

 

Jackie Battle: Not in the best spot in Dallas, though both Jones and Barber are in contract years I believe. I have no idea why he wasn't drafted this year, but he has measurables that compare to Stephen Jackson's and tore-it-up in college. He did play for a division 2 school, but other than that I don't know why he fell.

 

Kenneth Darby: Looked pretty good in his first preseason game, and has a good combination of size and speed. If Cadillac struggles again this year, he may get an opportunity.

 

Samkon Gado: Has been forgotten by many, but I just like this guy. He's smart and he always gives tremendous effort. If he doesn't quit football to become an MD, he will probably see the limelight again somewhere down the line.

 

Noah Herron: Looked good when given the opportunity last year (including when he started with both Green and Morency out), yet for some reason wasn't considered a threat to challenge for the starting position this off-season. With Morency currently injured and an unexperienced rookie listed at number 1, Herron may get another look this year.

Edited by Crazysight
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How many "true" sleepers are there every year? Especially ones that have a real impact fantasy wise?

 

It is a short list.

 

So I ask those that seem to be hung on on the name of a feature: Would you rather us throw out the Demetrius Williams and the Jacoby Jones of the world, knowing full well we will be wrong 95% of the time, or would you rather us write about players that everyone probably knows about, but have a realistic chance of beating their draft position by a good margin? Where we figure to have a much better chance of plucking winners. Which is really more useful? I'm just asking

 

 

Isn't the name of the feature the point that we are discussing?

 

I guess that its a matter of expectations. I expected some insight about guys about whom many people have little knowledge when I saw the title. Some apparently expected discussion about guys that are going to have better years than expected.

 

If the world thinks that Thomas Jones is going to put up 1,000 and 4, and you think that he's going to put up 1400 and 7, I still think that its silly for you to call him a "sleeper."

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Isn't the name of the feature the point that we are discussing?

 

I guess that its a matter of expectations. I expected some insight about guys about whom many people have little knowledge when I saw the title. Some apparently expected discussion about guys that are going to have better years than expected.

 

If the world thinks that Thomas Jones is going to put up 1,000 and 4, and you think that he's going to put up 1400 and 7, I still think that its silly for you to call him a "sleeper."

 

I'm not going to defend the writers that included Thomas Jones as a sleeper. His ADP is right around 30. I see his as neither undervalued nor a sleeper. As a matter of fact, I would lean more toward predicting him a bust rather than a sleeper. But evidently several of the writers consider him undervalued though, so they included him. It is unfortunate that 6 of them included him on their lists, allowing for a lot less diversity, but I still think that if they seriously think he is way undervalued as an early to mid 3rd round pick, it is fine to put him in the write-ups.

 

As someone else stated, as a writer you have to please a very diverse audience, not all of which are as savvy and sophisticated in the hobby as are most of you message board regulars. Lots of new people are plowing their way into this hobby, and they need to be served along with the hardcore.

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I was just checking out the "Running Back Sleepers" article in the Draft Guide and noticed where six of the nine contributing authors tabbed Thomas Jones in that category. Who's the editor here? Wouldn't seeing his name appear in that many portions of a "sleeper" article trigger some sort of alarm that woke up the staff? Just curious.

 

You have to realize that these are all people trying to predict the future. They make mistakes in many ways.

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My sleeper for this year is Snelling, the Atlanta rookie RB. I know the guys in my local won't draft him, so I will in the last round. I had already taken him in a dynasty league, but after watching him against the Jets I was impressed. I knew he was big, but he's pretty quick too for such a big back (5'11", 232), and very tough to bring down... just the sort of RB Petrino loves. 10 carries for 48 yards, to go along with 3 receptions for 12. Even if it turns out Dunn is OK, Snelling may be a GL hawk. A combo of Norwood and Snelling... if he is in fact as good as he looked against the Jets, that would be some backfield.

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Guys I have my eyes on right now as deep sleepers (for deep dynasty leagues only):

 

Derrick Ross: Has a great combination of size and speed, and was the co-MVP of NFL Europe this off-season.

 

Note to Cs: Sending a skill player over to NFLE is usually the kiss of death for that skill player. Guys that teams consider valuable are kept around the training facility year round to work with other players on the team as they train. That a team is willing to take a long shot at sending a player overseas to play in a potentially much more hazardous environment only shows that the team doesn't have much esteem for them.

 

Want a reality check on that? See how many skill players even became significant contributors after finishing in the top 10 in NFLE stats as QBs, RBs, or WRs after the NFL stopped requiring that teams send top prosepcts over.

 

The short answer: 0

 

Disclaimer: I own Ross in a dynasty league, but after seeing KC send him to NFLE as well as draft Smith, he probably won't make my second set of cuts (after week 3 preseason) this year.

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My sleeper for this year is Snelling, the Atlanta rookie RB. I know the guys in my local won't draft him, so I will in the last round. I had already taken him in a dynasty league, but after watching him against the Jets I was impressed. I knew he was big, but he's pretty quick too for such a big back (5'11", 232), and very tough to bring down... just the sort of RB Petrino loves. 10 carries for 48 yards, to go along with 3 receptions for 12. Even if it turns out Dunn is OK, Snelling may be a GL hawk. A combo of Norwood and Snelling... if he is in fact as good as he looked against the Jets, that would be some backfield.

 

I like Snelling a lot. Petrino has had good things to say about him, and he's gotten some decent work so far - even though it's early. He appears to fit the Petrino mold of a big bruising RB, and also appears to be a very good counter balance to Norwood.

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Note to Cs: Sending a skill player over to NFLE is usually the kiss of death for that skill player. Guys that teams consider valuable are kept around the training facility year round to work with other players on the team as they train. That a team is willing to take a long shot at sending a player overseas to play in a potentially much more hazardous environment only shows that the team doesn't have much esteem for them.

 

Want a reality check on that? See how many skill players even became significant contributors after finishing in the top 10 in NFLE stats as QBs, RBs, or WRs after the NFL stopped requiring that teams send top prosepcts over.

 

The short answer: 0

 

Disclaimer: I own Ross in a dynasty league, but after seeing KC send him to NFLE as well as draft Smith, he probably won't make my second set of cuts (after week 3 preseason) this year.

 

 

Don't need your "reality check" on it, the NFL Europe bit is well known. That shouldn't discredit his success in NFL Europe this offseason in any way however. He earned his stripes over there and is worthy of of credit for the work that he did.

Nor does it take away from his physical attributes, as it's rare to ever find players with his combination of power and speed in NFL Europe to begin with.

 

Truth is that skill players in NFLE have rarely even gotten any opportunites to start in the NFL in the first place, and most of the top players over the years to come out of NFLE haven't been top prospects to begin with. However, if Larry Johnson should either fail to resign or go down, you tell me who is going to get the shot to pound the ball in KC. It won't be the diminutive Michael Bennett (although he would definitely still get a heavy workload. Unless you think Priest Holmes is going to complete a miraculous comeback, there are no better options in KC to get that opportunity than Derrick Ross.

Edited by Crazysight
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watch out for Jamal Lewis....as a running back i dislike him and would take a ton of backs over him but his line in cleveland is going to be much better with bentley back, steinbach and thomas in there he will be solid value when it comes to games in the second half of the year. He may not explode but he will 1200 yards and 8-10 tds

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