Drafting WR/WR/WR/RB in the 12th slot in a PPR league

[Thews40]

I realize I’m going into this against conventional FF drafting strategy, but that’s sort of the point as it's fairly easy to predict the outcome. If you didn’t happen to pull the #1 slot (highly favorable this year… more than any other in recent memory), and don’t take chances you’re prolly gonna have an average team. So you didn’t grab the king of RB land, you can have two kings in WR land. Pick apart my logic if you wish, but just hear me out (this isn’t a rate my team… I already know where the weakness’ are). Also, the draft was basically completed before the first pre-season game… it’s much easier to predict and draft just before the season starts. Injury concerns/contract holdout/what happened in the preseason games etc., aren’t known yet.

 

The team:

Smith, Steve CAR WR 1.12

Johnson, Chad CIN WR 2.01

Colston, Marques NOS WR 3.12

Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB 4.01

Heap, Todd BAL TE 5.12

Taylor, Chester MIN RB 6.01

Taylor, Fred JAC RB 7.12

Bell, Tatum DET RB 8.01

Smith, Alex SFO QB 9.12

Cutler, Jay DEN QB 10.01

Broncos, Denver DEN Def 11.12

Marshall, Brandon DEN WR 12.01

Duckett, T.J. DET RB 13.12

Grossman, Rex CHI QB 14.01

Sapp, Cecil DEN RB 15.12

Gould, Robbie CHI PK 16.01

Colts, Indianapolis IND Def 17.12

Bengals, Cincinnati CIN Def 18.01

 

vs. the team that drafted #1

 

Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 1.01

Owens, Terrell DAL WR 2.12

Wayne, Reggie IND WR 3.01

McAllister, Deuce NOS RB 4.12

Jones, Julius DAL RB 5.01

Winslow, Kellen CLE TE 6.12

Johnson, Calvin DET WR 7.01

Young, Vince TEN QB 8.12

Patriots, New England NEP Def 9.01

Bennett, Drew STL WR 10.12

Brown, Chris TEN RB 11.01

McMichael, Randy STL TE 12.12

Garcia, Jeff TBB QB 13.01

Leonard, Brian STL RB 14.12

Gonzalez, Anthony IND WR 15.01

Clayton, Michael TBB WR 16.12

Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def 17.01

Hanson, Jason DET PK 18.12

 

Without breaking it down too far (keeping it to the top 6)

He has LT, Duce McAlister, Julius Jones, TO, Wayne, Winslow

I have to counter with Smith, Johnson, Colston, DW, Heap, Chester Taylor.

 

Notables…

On his bench:

QB: Vince Young, Jeff Garcia

RB: Chris Brown

WR: Calvin Johnson

TE; Randy Michael

 

On my bench:

QB: Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, Rex Grossman

RB: Fred Taylor, Tatum Bell,

WR: Brandon Marshal

 

Which team would you rather have? … no shat, the #1 team, as that’s a lot of firepower to go up against. But, insert another team drafted in another league:

 

HOF league

 

Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 1.12

Johnson, Chad CIN WR 2.01

Williams, Carnell TBB RB 3.12

Colston, Marques NOS WR 4.01

Young, Vince TEN QB 5.12

Jones, Kevin DET RB 6.01

Jackson, Darrell SFO WR 7.12

Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def 8.01

Berrian, Bernard CHI WR 9.12

Turner, Michael SDC RB 10.01

Clark, Dallas IND TE 11.12

Bennett, Drew STL WR 12.01

Garcia, Jeff TBB QB 13.12

Pittman, Michael TBB RB 14.01

Graham, Daniel DEN TE 15.12

Mare, Olindo NOS PK 16.01

Hester, Devin CHI WR 17.12

Miller, Zach OAK TE 18.01

 

 

He Counters with:

Vince Young, Carnell Williams, MJD, Kevin Jones, Chad Johnson, Colston

 

On his bench:

 

QB: J. Garcia

WR: D. Jackson, Bernard Berrian

D: Ravens

 

All Pro league:

 

Henry, Travis DEN RB 1.12

Smith, Steve CAR WR 2.01

Norwood, Jerious ATL RB 3.12

Johnson, Andre HOU WR 4.01

Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE 5.12

McNabb, Donovan PHI QB 6.01

Bell, Tatum DET RB 7.12

Holmes, Santonio PIT WR 8.01

Bell, Mike DEN RB 9.12

Manning, Eli NYG QB 10.01

Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 11.12

Berrian, Bernard CHI WR 12.01

Scheffler, Tony DEN TE 13.12

Irons, Kenny CIN RB 14.01

Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK 15.12

Battle, Arnaz SFO WR 16.01

Davis, Craig SDC WR 17.12

Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def 18.01

 

He counters with:

QB: McNabb

WR: S.Smith, Andre Johnson

RB: T.Henry, Norwood,

TE: Gonzo

 

On his bench:

 

QB: Eli

RB: Tatum, Mike Bell

WR: S. Holms, Berrian

D: Cowboys

 

Semi Pro #12 draft

 

Benson, Cedric CHI RB 1.12

Henry, Travis DEN RB 2.01

Driver, Donald GBP WR 3.12

Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR 4.01

Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE 5.12

McNabb, Donovan PHI QB 6.01

Betts, Ladell WAS RB 7.12

Morency, Vernand GBP RB 8.01

Bell, Mike DEN RB 9.12

Curry, Ronald OAK WR 10.01

Favre, Brett GBP QB 11.12

Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def 12.01

Kaeding, Nate SDC PK 13.12

Kennison, Eddie KCC WR 14.01

Crayton, Patrick DAL WR 15.12

Scaife, Bo TEN TE 16.01

Titans, Tennessee TEN Def 17.12

Wolfe, Garrett CHI RB 18.01

 

He counters with:

 

QB: McNanbb

RB: Benson,Travis Henry,

WR: Driver, Housh

TE: Gonzo

 

On bench:

QB: Favre

RB: Betts, Vernand Morency, Mike Bell

WR : Ronald Curry

 

PeeWee #12 draft –

 

Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 1.12

Benson, Cedric CHI RB 2.01

Moss, Randy NEP WR 3.12

Evans, Lee BUF WR 4.01

Brown, Reggie PHI WR 5.12

Bell, Tatum DET RB 6.01

Foster, De'shaun CAR RB 7.12

Henderson, Devery NOS WR 8.01

Cutler, Jay DEN QB 9.12

Turner, Michael SDC RB 10.01

 

He counters with:

 

RB: MJD, Benson, Tatum Bell

WR: Randy Moss, Lee Evans, Reggie Brown

 

On His bench:

QB: Cutler

RB: Foster, Turner

WR: Devery Henderson

After looking through this, going up against the #1 draft slot (who you’ll have to beat if yer gonna win the big show), which team has the best chance of knocking out Goliath?

 

Thoughts:

 

On RB. The RBBC is still there with Duce/Bush, Taylor/MJD, Foster/DW, Chester/Peterson, Dunn/Norwood. Having one of them isn’t like having Addai, while they should put up great stats, there are expected weeks where the other gets the better numbers. Unexpected RBBC could come from the NYG and Bears IMO.

 

On WR: The uber elite WR’s Like Wayne/Harrison, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson and TO can get damn good RB’s in a trade. A Santana Moss isn’t going to pry that #3 RB you want from the cold dead hands of its owner as he’s already drunk on the RB Koolaid… but an elitle WR can make for a decent deal if the owner is weak at WR for a few weeks and is losing.

 

On TE: If I could have grabbed Gates at 3.12 I would have. In a mandatory TE system (especially with PPR), you count on production every week just like a stud RB. Gates is prolly going to have multiple TD games and is pretty much is always solid. That TE you drafted late is prolly gonna get you 26 yards and two catches on a lot of weeks. I like Heap a lot this year with a better running game and McNair one year under his belt with the Ravens. Outside of Gates,Gonzo, Heap I wouldn't pick a TE earlier than 6th, but I would wait too long after that either.

 

On Defense: Outside the top two (Ravens/Bears), the defenses don’t really matter that much. It’s not worth a spot when you could have potential players that plays every week still on the board.

 

On kickers: A kicker isn’t worth taking until late, but nabbing Gould is just a prediction that he’ll get more chances. The Colts score TD’s and extra points are worth one. The Bears kick a lot more field goals and rely on defense to win. Know when to pull the trigger and start the kicker run. The rest will follow and give you a better chance of getting the next player you want.

 

On injuries: I wouldn’t want any part of Portis this year. It’s almost a given he’s gonna be/get hurt. Same for Kevin Jones… he’s just not ready to play yet. Frank Gore – Yes I expect him to be a stud and great, but, he’s not lifting right now with the broken hand. He may get off to a slow start

 

Rolling the bones…

QB: Between Alex Smith, Rex Grossman and Jay Cutler, I can start the one with the best matchup as I don't have an ASYS QB. If one gets a hot hand, I can always go with it. With 4 PPT 2 TD’s is all I’m looking for on a good day.

RB:In a nutshell, my long shots are in Tatum and DW. I really need one of them to hit to make a run, but there’s a fairly decent chance that’ll happen.

WR: I’ll start Steve Smith, Chad Johnson and Colston every week. I don’t have as much faith in Colston as I do in Brees. Brees always puts up a ton of yardage and someone has to catch it. If Colston gets doubled too often he’ll burn the D somewhere else as NO has talent at WR.

 

Discuss…

Edited August 12, 2007 by Thews40

[Grits and Shins]

It takes a rather large sac to wait until the 4th round to get a RB. You are rolling the dice that you will be able to "hit" on a serviceable RB late.

 

Last year in my local 12 team redrafter the team drafting 12th went WR-WR-WR-TE-RB-RB-QB

 

He did surprisingly well given that the first RB he drafted was Bush ... his team washed out in the playoffs though. One of the biggest problems this team had was one of the WRs he banked on in the 1st couple of rounds was Randy Moss

[major-tom]

I had the 12th pick in the All- Pro draft and that's not my team, lol. It looks like you listed the HOF owner at that spot twice. Here is mine though, likely starters in bold.

 

Manning, Eli NYG QB - 10.01

McNabb, Donovan PHI QB - 6.01

Bell, Mike DEN RB - 9.12

Bell, Tatum DET RB - 7.12

Henry, Travis DEN RB - 1.12

Irons, Kenny CIN RB - 14.01

Norwood, Jerious ATL RB - 3.12

Battle, Arnaz SFO WR - 16.01

Berrian, Bernard CHI WR - 12.01

Davis, Craig SDC WR - 17.12

Holmes, Santonio PIT WR - 8.01

Johnson, Andre HOU WR - 4.01

Smith, Steve CAR WR - 2.01

Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE - 5.12

Scheffler, Tony DEN TE - 13.12

Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK - 15.12

Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def - 18.01

Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def - 11.12

Edited August 12, 2007 by major-tom

[Egret]

I've had success before with the stud WR theory. I've also had failure. You have to hit gold in the RB spot in order for it to work. In Portis' rookie season, I drafted him with the stud WR theory. I took Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss at the 1.12 and 2.1 spots. I took Chad Johnson at the 3.12 spot. I then took Tiki Barber and Clinton Portis back-to-back. It was the initial draft of a dynasty league. The league "started over" after I won three championships in a row. The league didn't have PPR, but it did give bonuses for length of TD. I started off 2-5 while being the highest scoring team in the league. I didn't lose for the rest of the season which squeaked me into the playoffs. It was history after that

 

Last year in the Norris Division BOTH league, I took Portis first and then took: Steve Smith, Randy Moss, and Plaxico Burress. I grabbed Warrick Dunn a little later in the draft. Needless to say, lightning didn't strike twice. Maybe if I hadn't drank the Randy Moss Kool-Aid last year things would've worked out differently. I ended the season a disappointing 5-9.

 

The Stud WR theory is either boom or bust. If I would've struck gold at RB by taking someone like Frank Gore, last year would have been different. It's worth a stab.

[Grits and Shins]

Playing it safe doesn't win very many championships. This kind of strategy can be very successful if you hit on a RB late ... but if you miss on the RB it makes for a long season. If you miss on a WR (Randy Moss last year) then getting a mere serviceable RB is not enough.

 

IMO to be successful in fantasy football you often have to break out of the conventional mode.

[Egret]

Playing it safe doesn't win very many championships. This kind of strategy can be very successful if you hit on a RB late ... but if you miss on the RB it makes for a long season. If you miss on a WR (Randy Moss last year) then getting a mere serviceable RB is not enough.

 

IMO to be successful in fantasy football you often have to break out of the conventional mode.

Yup.

[Thews40]

I had the 12th pick in the All- Pro draft and that's not my team, lol. It looks like you listed the HOF owner at that spot twice. Here is mine though, likely starters in bold.

 

Manning, Eli NYG QB - 10.01

McNabb, Donovan PHI QB - 6.01

Bell, Mike DEN RB - 9.12

Bell, Tatum DET RB - 7.12

Henry, Travis DEN RB - 1.12

Irons, Kenny CIN RB - 14.01

Norwood, Jerious ATL RB - 3.12

Battle, Arnaz SFO WR - 16.01

Berrian, Bernard CHI WR - 12.01

Davis, Craig SDC WR - 17.12

Holmes, Santonio PIT WR - 8.01

Johnson, Andre HOU WR - 4.01

Smith, Steve CAR WR - 2.01

Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE - 5.12

Scheffler, Tony DEN TE - 13.12

Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK - 15.12

Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def - 18.01

Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def - 11.12

Fixed.

[DMD]

Seen it tried, never saw it work. I tried it before.

 

Problem you run into is that WR are not as consistent at scoring which can kill you in the playoffs. Overall they will get good numbers but from week to week they will spike and fall much more than RBs. Plus deeper into the season, often the lesser numbers that WRs get and the better than RBs get.

[Randall]

Seen it tried, never saw it work. I tried it before.

 

Problem you run into is that WR are not as consistent at scoring which can kill you in the playoffs. Overall they will get good numbers but from week to week they will spike and fall much more than RBs. Plus deeper into the season, often the lesser numbers that WRs get and the better than RBs get.

 

 

If he had gone RB in round 3 he could have had AP or Ahman and(we'll see) if he should have gone that route. WR/WR/RB/RB may have made more sense. We'll see.

[bushwacked]

IMO to be successful in fantasy football you often have to break out of the conventional mode.

 

Agree for the most part. Our team has the #8 pick at WCOFF this year and we've had lengthy discussions about targeting guys that maximize your potential to compete out of our spot. We are not locking into going RB/RB/WR, RB/WR/WR/RB or whatever the combo might be...but there is a fair amount of RBs towards the end of the first or start of the 2nd that I don't trust to perform where they are being picked...making an early WR pick all the more sensible

[Thews40]

I understand the logic in consistency, but I guess where you roll the bones is you find a more than serviceable RB to step up. I pointed out the RBBC’s because they’re gonna chip away at the stud RB’s drafted on the same team. I expect Bush to have many receptions, which would bolster the reason to pick him, but guys like Peterson, Jacobs, MJD should have off weeks as well. To me, it boils down to what’s expected from the WR#1/WR#2/Flex vs. RB#1/RB#2/WR#1.

 

If I didn’t take Heap in the 5th, I could have added another RB. In looking at how the drafts panned out, Johnson was had by the 12th slot on two teams, so you could argue I could have waited and potentially got another WR of equal value there (paid too much). In retrospect, as it was an early draft and I didn’t predict Chad Johnson to make it to the turn, I could have taken Gates with the #2 pick and really gone out on a limb.

Edited August 12, 2007 by Thews40

[FishFreak]

You won't have to get creative and try unnecesary risks if your league would just do the revised serpentine draft order in round 3!

[Randall]

You won't have to get creative and try unnecesary risks if your league would just do the revised serpentine draft order in round 3!

 

 

We probably will next year. Have to decide on it before those with high picks vote against it.

[Caveman_Nick]

Seen it tried, never saw it work. I tried it before.

 

Problem you run into is that WR are not as consistent at scoring which can kill you in the playoffs. Overall they will get good numbers but from week to week they will spike and fall much more than RBs. Plus deeper into the season, often the lesser numbers that WRs get and the better than RBs get.

 

 

DMD, I would swear that a site won the SOFA league taking WRs at 1.12 and 2.01 several years back. Fantasy Insights maybe?

[Caveman_Nick]

 

DMD, I would swear that a site won the SOFA league taking WRs at 1.12 and 2.01 several years back. Fantasy Insights maybe?

 

In 2004 Fantasy Insights went:

 

1.11 D Culpepper

2.02 T Holt

3.11 T Gonzalez

4.02 D Jackson

 

and won the league. Not WR/WR. I must be dreaming...

[DMD]

 

DMD, I would swear that a site won the SOFA league taking WRs at 1.12 and 2.01 several years back. Fantasy Insights maybe?

 

Yes he did I believe. You have to hit RBs very right in the 3rd and 4th rounds though to pull it off which is almost impossible to do but can be done. AT WCOFF last year the guy next to me went WR-WR and started out great before taking a nosedive at the end of the season.

[bushwacked]

Yes he did I believe. You have to hit RBs very right in the 3rd and 4th rounds though to pull it off which is almost impossible to do but can be done. AT WCOFF last year the guy next to me went WR-WR and started out great before taking a nosedive at the end of the season.

 

I believe in the WCOFF draft I moderated last year, the #12 team went WR-WR (C. Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald) and almost advanced to the playoffs. I think they ended up with Frank Gore which helped them out a ton. Not only do you have to hit the RB's, but you need to hit on the 2 WR' (i.e...the Johnson/Fitzgerald combo wasn't the best considering Marvin Harrison was taken later in the 2nd round).

 

I've been open to and evaluating alternate draft strategies for a couple years. The one time I took WR-WR at the end of the first round, it didn't end up working too well. It sounds pretty obvious, but one shouldn't make a position strategy when it comes to picking as much as they should consider league scoring and target players who are likely to outperform their position.

Edited August 13, 2007 by bushwacked

[Pope Flick]

I like this approach in 12, especially this year. I ended up with 12 in my local and am considering it and a few permutations.

 

The best thing about your example is DeAngelo Williams in the 4th round. I think in this position there is a decent shot you could let him slide until your 5/6 turn, and take Ahman Green in the 4th instead. That way you get the guaranteed 25 touches with him, and gamble DeAngelo, as a current member of a RBBC drop until the next round. There, you're gambling he supplants Foster full time, just like in the 4th. THe upside is, if the gamble pays off, then you have 2 solid RBs with upside.

 

Chester Taylor is also a nice pickup, because after a great year everyone is enamored with the fragile AP. That's certainly a gamble that could pay off.

 

Two other things I've noticed. 1 - Randy Moss could be available as your 3rd WR at the end of the 4th. That could be a tipping point. I've also thought about the idea of going QB/WR/WR/RB with the QB/WR being Palmer and Chad Johnson. I think though that with that paring, going RB/RB at 3/4 would be the better way to go.

 

You could also take Harrison/Wayne with your 1+2 and grab DJ as your 3rd. They all have the same Bye Week. (Indy has a rough Week 11-16 though) So you don't plan on going 14-0, but a nasty 13-1 because your full strength all weeks but 1. Heck, if you want to trust in Rothlisberger and the new offense, grab him 7-9 with the same Bye Week.

Edited August 13, 2007 by Pope Flick

[Randall]

Yes he did I believe. You have to hit RBs very right in the 3rd and 4th rounds though to pull it off which is almost impossible to do but can be done. AT WCOFF last year the guy next to me went WR-WR and started out great before taking a nosedive at the end of the season.

 

 

He went WR/WR/WR/RB/TE. That's a tough way to start and field a good team.

[irish]

He went WR/WR/WR/RB/TE. That's a tough way to start and field a good team.

 

Yeah that is pretty rough and in my opinion he did get kinda lucky grabbing the RBs he did so late. His team will compete for sure and he'll most certainly be looking for a trade but until then he'll do okay with the squad he's got.

[gd74]

You won't have to get creative and try unnecesary risks if your league would just do the revised serpentine draft order in round 3!

We do this in our league and it always seems that the commish of our league winds up with a top 3 pick and then the first pick in the third round...

[MikesVikes]

The WR/WR pick happens quite a bit even in non PPR leagues. But a 3rd WR would be nasty, imo. I hate playing an entire season wondering how I'm going to field a RB in a lineup each week. Plus it's very difficult to get a decent one in free agency. Although if you have a losing record, that becomes a better possibility.

 

[MikesVikes]

We probably will next year. Have to decide on it before those with high picks vote against it.

 

Yep, any vote on that should be before any draft order is set.

[bushwacked]

I like this approach in 12, especially this year.

 

I don't necessarily agree. I'm not so convinced RBs are deeper this year than they were last year, or the year before that. I think the FF player's general perception is finally catching up to the trend of top tier WR's possibly being a better bet than counting on a solid performance from a #2 type RB which has become quite a crap shoot the last couple years. The value of later round RBs were there the last couple years, everyone is chatting more about it this year.

 

The best thing about your example is DeAngelo Williams in the 4th round. I think in this position there is a decent shot you could let him slide until your 5/6 turn,

 

I have been big on Williams for a couple months now and still like him in basic redraft leagues to a point. Problem being, is that his perceived value is on the rise and is getting drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds now. I still like him, especially in a regular redraft format where he can carry your team late in the year. The problem with a WCOFF scoring format, is that total points (Week 1- 11) become as important as overall record, and you generally can't afford guys in the first few rounds who might bloom after week 5 or 6.

Edited August 13, 2007 by bushwacked

[FishFreak]

Seen it tried, never saw it work. I tried it before.

 

Problem you run into is that WR are not as consistent at scoring which can kill you in the playoffs. Overall they will get good numbers but from week to week they will spike and fall much more than RBs. Plus deeper into the season, often the lesser numbers that WRs get and the better than RBs get.

 

That about sums it up nicely. Even IF you do pick the right 2-3 stud WR's their scoring will drive you crazy. Plus it's too risky waiting so long on RB's. A savy drafting league might leave you with crumbs. Then you might have to end up reaching on draft picks just because YOU NEED RB's. Bottom line is you might pick a competitive squad with this strategy but will likely not field a championship squad. A lot of pieces have to fall into place to make that strategy work.