Tatum

[Roo]

Ok so with this news:

 

The Sporting News is reporting that Lions RB Kevin Jones is expected to remain on the PUP list and miss the first six weeks of the regular season. Despite Jones' recovery being ahead of schedule, the team wants to be very cautious with his return.

 

I could use some help breaking this down. He's WAY down there in both Huddle rankings and draft averages. Please add your inisght.

 

PROS:

 

Unquestioned starter (20+ carries?), 6 games probably longer

Talented, quick, has shown big play potential

Kitna and the WR Corps should allow some room

Run style fits well with the offense

 

CONS:

 

This is not the Denver run game

TJ Ducket probably a vulture

 

QUESTIONS:

 

Hows the o-line looking?

Ease of schedule?

Fragile?

[Savage Beatings]

I think he will make a great RB2 this season. I've never thought that Kevin Jones would end up being a factor this season though. Martz will throw a lot, so I don't know if Tatum will consistently break 100 yards each week, but he will have those occassional games where he finds huge holes to exploit because of the respect given by D's to the passing game.

[policyvote]

I'm writing up my annual Lions report right now . . .

 

Bell is not a feature back in this league, end of story. He DOES have the home-run capability, but he'll need holes on the line AND a block downfield in order to actually break one. I have very little confidence that the Lions' personnel can get both of those things going at the same time. If you take away the home run from Tatum Bell, what you have is Justin Fargas.

 

. . .

 

So there is a reason why he's way way down there on the Huddle rankings. He's a fill-in starter on a team with a regular starter waiting in the wings, plus there's a goal-line vulture, plus the OL is still going to be shaky and not a run-blocking OL anyway, and further the OC rarely runs, especially when the pass game is working (and it will be working).

 

So yeah.

 

Peace

policy

[PaulOttCarruth]

I'm writing up my annual Lions report right now . . .

 

Bell is not a feature back in this league, end of story. He DOES have the home-run capability, but he'll need holes on the line AND a block downfield in order to actually break one. I have very little confidence that the Lions' personnel can get both of those things going at the same time. If you take away the home run from Tatum Bell, what you have is Justin Fargas.

 

. . .

 

So there is a reason why he's way way down there on the Huddle rankings. He's a fill-in starter on a team with a regular starter waiting in the wings, plus there's a goal-line vulture, plus the OL is still going to be shaky and not a run-blocking OL anyway, and further the OC rarely runs, especially when the pass game is working (and it will be working).

 

So yeah.

 

Peace

policy

 

If you look at Kevin Jones' stats from last year, Bell stacks up favorably. Bell had more yards and a better ypc average. The key difference was Jones impressive play in the passing game. If Bell can work on that area, I think he can be a major fantasy presence. He won't get the TDs consistently, but I gotta think he can be a 100 all-purpose yards per week guy. Plus give you the occassional homerun.

 

According to Mike Martz, he is in fact mastering the passing game:

 

"Tatum right now is a different level," Martz says. "He's better than I thought. He's taken our offense and learned it so well. He doesn't make any mistakes. He's catching the ball extremely well." While Bell's value seems to be on the rise with the uncertainty surrounding Kevin Jones, Martz also has been impressed with Brian Calhoun and the Lions could go with a committee.

[policyvote]

If you look at Kevin Jones' stats from last year, Bell stacks up favorably. Bell had more yards and a better ypc average. The key difference was Jones impressive play in the passing game. If Bell can work on that area, I think he can be a major fantasy presence. He won't get the TDs consistently, but I gotta think he can be a 100 all-purpose yards per week guy. Plus give you the occassional homerun.

 

Here is the problem: last year, Tatum Bell played for the Denver Broncos. Kevin Jones played for the Detroit Lions, who for most of the year were STARTING literal street free agents on the offensive line. As in, "Who out there on the street knows how to play OL? Blaine Saiapia? Congtaulations, you are now the starting right guard for the Detroit Lions. Tell your mom you're not making Thanksgiving this year."

 

The "occasional homerun" is exactly what gives Bell his 'superior yards and ypc', kind of like a crappy Barry Sanders to KJ's crappy Thurman Thomas. If Bell didn't break off an occasional 80-yarder, all those one- and two-yard plows into the line would have to stand alone on the stat sheet. KJ had to break, shuck, run into, or spin off several defenders to get every yard he got last year; ask Ray Lewis about the some of the toughest 52 yards anyone's ever ground out against the Ravens' D. Bell is just going to get swallowed up.

 

 

According to Mike Martz, he is in fact mastering the passing game:

 

"Tatum right now is a different level," Martz says. "He's better than I thought. He's taken our offense and learned it so well. He doesn't make any mistakes. He's catching the ball extremely well." While Bell's value seems to be on the rise with the uncertainty surrounding Kevin Jones, Martz also has been impressed with Brian Calhoun and the Lions could go with a committee.

 

Okay, so, he's improving the one facet of his game that is clearly not anywhere near as good as KJ's. That's nice. He still couldn't beat out Mike Bell for the starting role in Denver--and if you think I'll buy an argument that Mike Bell is a better back than Kevin Jones (all else being equal), you're off your rocker.

 

Peace

policy

[Avernus]

note to self: avoid Detroit backfield

[Thews40]

I think he’s great value where he currently goes in the draft. If the Lions are winning when Kevin Jones comes back, I can’t see changing the recipe. A veteran QB with very talented WR’s makes for a good fit, and he should catch a lot of passes, so PPR will boost his value. The vulture in TJ comes cheap later in the draft, and for what I’ve read about Jones’ injury, it typically takes 10 months for it to heal completely (I think he had surgery in Dec). Bottom line is a very big up\side at a cheap enough price. If he comes out of the gate on fire and you believe Jones will come back, you can always trade him or trade for Jones.

[WaterMan]

Bell couldn't beat out Mike Anderson either.

[kingfish247]

I could use some help breaking this down. He's WAY down there in both Huddle rankings and draft averages. Please add your inisght.

Having waited patiently for him to break out with the Broncs, I might be biased but... Tatum is a turd.

 

He struggled with consistency and nagging injuries after only a few games as the Broncos starter. I just don't see how that translates to success on the Lions, of all teams... see e.g. Olandis Gary.

 

He was best in the role as a part-time specialist RB... see e.g. 2005 while sharing with Mike Anderson.

 

Passing on Tatum this year might bite me in the ass but after 2 years of taking Tatum, it hasn't exactly done me any favors. He probably has decent value in a PPR league but even that might be short-lived given Tatum's penchant for nagging injuries.

Edited August 15, 2007 by kingfish247

[Roo]

Checked in to o-line and ease-of-schedule:

 

o-line was ranked a 6.0 by the huddle

rushing ease of schedule is mediocre-to-poor

 

So put those under the CONS columb. Still though I can't shake that's he's a starter on a decent offense, but is generally ranked among handcuffs. I mean LaMont Jordon is ranked 15 RB spots ahead of him?

 

If Martz gets this offense to click, he would be fantasy gold at that value.

[DexterDew]

what has me scared is the fact that Bell is a poor blocker and Martz's system usually exposes the quarterback because of the slower developing routs... a recipe that could kill Kitna, and without Kitna the whole ship goes down.

 

i thought Ducket would get a little more love but i think he fumbled at the goal line in their pre-season game...

 

i personally think with their OFF and his boom-bust style or running, he could be worth a shot at RB3... but nothing more

[Bronco Billy]

I think he will make a great RB2 this season.

 

 

Bell ran in one of the greatest running systems in the NFL and did so little that he was sent packing.

 

Bell can come up with the huge play, but in between huge plays you're going to get a plethora of 2, 1, 0 yds runs & losses. In short, he causes offenses to stall regularly, and that can't be overcome by his occassional big run. Now, with a Martz passing system in place, DET might be able to salvage more drives after his short runs, but you can expect an abnormally large number of 2nd & 8s and 3rd and 7s. That's a recipe for disaster for most teams.

 

Then you add that he has nothing better than average hands on a good day..

 

I'd be keeping a very close eye on Calhoun. At least he'll mix it up between the tackles, he's as fast as Bell, and he's got a hell of a lot better hands.

[Avernus]

Checked in to o-line and ease-of-schedule:

 

o-line was ranked a 6.0 by the huddle

rushing ease of schedule is mediocre-to-poor

 

So put those under the CONS columb. Still though I can't shake that's he's a starter on a decent offense, but is generally ranked among handcuffs. I mean LaMont Jordon is ranked 15 RB spots ahead of him?

 

If Martz gets this offense to click, he would be fantasy gold at that value.

 

we know Jordan is the starter...for now..

 

we don't know that Tatum is the starter...plus you add in calhoun and duckett maybe for short yardage...

 

I personally like Calhoun and am warming up to Tatum in the Lions offense in a PPR..

[yo mama]

Meh. I don't love Bell, but based on TC and preseason performance, and the fact that he's got a good shot to see a nice volume of opportunities this year, I was willing to roll the dice on him as my #4 RB last weekend 81 picks in. I kind of view him as comparable value to Betts. They both have significant downside, but are are worth the gamble middle way through the draft.

Edited August 15, 2007 by yo mama

[Roo]

we know Jordan is the starter...for now..

 

we don't know that Tatum is the starter...plus you add in calhoun and duckett maybe for short yardage...

 

I personally like Calhoun and am warming up to Tatum in the Lions offense in a PPR..

 

Fair enough - I thought it was bascially 100% that Tatum was going to be the starter - my bad.

 

Maybe we can start focusing more love on TJ and Calhoun. If we assume that the Martz offense can move the ball, and Kitna/Roy/Calvin will be serious threats, then I feel someone is going to be worth more than a top 40 RB here. Combine that with durablity/skill issues around Tatum (thank you thread contributors) and maybe we should be looking one layer deeper?

 

Granted lots of questions marks - but that's our job to find the gems yes?

[yo mama]

Fair enough - I thought it was bascially 100% that Tatum was going to be the starter - my bad.

The Lions have already stated that Tatum is the starter Week 1. They just haven't committed anything more to anyone after that.

[Rileyrott]

 

Bell ran in one of the greatest running systems in the NFL and did so little that he was sent packing.

 

Says it ALL!

[Avernus]

Fair enough - I thought it was bascially 100% that Tatum was going to be the starter - my bad.

 

Maybe we can start focusing more love on TJ and Calhoun. If we assume that the Martz offense can move the ball, and Kitna/Roy/Calvin will be serious threats, then I feel someone is going to be worth more than a top 40 RB here. Combine that with durablity/skill issues around Tatum (thank you thread contributors) and maybe we should be looking one layer deeper?

 

Granted lots of questions marks - but that's our job to find the gems yes?

 

if Tatum was the starter....I'd easily move him ahead of Jordan...

 

no problem...

 

I may draft either Tatum or Calhoun as a flier, though...or at least keep an eye out for Calhoun and draft Tatum

[Avernus]

The Lions have already stated that Tatum is the starter Week 1. They just haven't committed anything more to anyone after that.

 

yuup...and they haven't indicated how many carries being the starter will get him...

[policyvote]

The "occasional homerun" is exactly what gives Bell his 'superior yards and ypc', kind of like a crappy Barry Sanders to KJ's crappy Thurman Thomas. If Bell didn't break off an occasional 80-yarder, all those one- and two-yard plows into the line would have to stand alone on the stat sheet.

 

Bell can come up with the huge play, but in between huge plays you're going to get a plethora of 2, 1, 0 yds runs & losses. In short, he causes offenses to stall regularly, and that can't be overcome by his occassional big run.

 

When he and I agree about something (especially about a guy who's been on the Broncos and is now on the Lions) you'd be smart to listen.

 

Peace

policy

[Avernus]

When he and I agree about something (especially about a guy who's been on the Broncos and is now on the Lions) you'd be smart to listen.

 

Peace

policy

 

this is why I hated Bell on Denver...

 

however, if Martz decided to use him frequently in the passing game....that's something I can't ignore...

[Roo]

When he and I agree about something (especially about a guy who's been on the Broncos and is now on the Lions) you'd be smart to listen.

 

Peace

policy

 

 

LOL - good point.

 

Alright, this a preseason situation to watch then. Let's see if Calhoun can do something here.

[PaulOttCarruth]

Did a little more evaluation of Bell's numbers from last year.

 

He had 15 or more rushing attempts in nine games in 2006.

 

In those nine games, he rushed for 80 or more yards seven times.

 

Of those seven times over 80 yards, he only once had a carry for 50+ yards (and twice over 30 yards).

 

Seems pretty respectable to me. It doesn't seem like it was 1 yard for 10 straight plays and then a 60 yard gallup at all.

 

Was his success a product of the system? Maybe. But Denver was also starting a rookie QB for a lot of the year and people weren't exactly fearful of the passing game. I think people are a little hard on the guy because they drafted him thinking he'd be the next Terrell Davis or Mike Anderson.

 

Bottom line: This is a guy you can get in the seventh, eighth or ninth round of your draft. He'll get you solid yardage and every once in awhile hit the homerun. Not sure you can ask for anything more.

[Bronco Billy]

When he and I agree about something (especially about a guy who's been on the Broncos and is now on the Lions) you'd be smart to listen.

 

Peace

policy

 

 

I love you, man.

[kingfish247]

 

Bell ran in one of the greatest running systems in the NFL and did so little that he was sent packing.

I'll say his name again... Olandis Gary.

 

While busy in my successful NFL career, I was thinking beyond the game. I knew football was not going to be there always and new endeavors would take place in my life. Therefore, I decided to prepare myself for the future.

 

Translation: "I was a Denver RB and did pretty good, but not great. Then I signed with the Lions."

Edited August 15, 2007 by kingfish247