RokoMotion Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 (edited) Every year I seem to get a hunch about certain players...that hunch that maybe their knee is going to blow out or they'll come down with a rare bout of rheumatism. Do you ever just get the hunch (educated or not) that an important player is going to go down with an injury before you draft, so you snatch their backup just to stash them on your bench for the rest of the year and wait? I play in a total points league (not head to head), so it generally pays off to stash a guy or two like this on your bench and ride it out, in hopes of getting major value when the starter goes down. Two years ago, I took LJ in the 5th round. Last year I took MJD in the 9th. Needless to say, I've finished 1st and 2nd those years. Who this year is going to go down? Who do you think is a worthy target for a "stash and play for that injury day?" I was thinking Turner might be the guy there. What round would you suggest taking him? Does any one else just have a "feeling" about Tomlinson? Edited August 22, 2007 by RokoMotion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 (edited) LJ - look at backs who have had 400+ carries, then look what happened the following year. If I picked 8th and he fell to me I wold pass. Edited August 22, 2007 by Pope Flick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RILETT Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Adrian Peterson, I have a hunch Benson either gets hurt or replaced, for lack of production Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 LJ, Bush, LT and Gore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Every year I seem to get a hunch about certain players...that hunch that maybe their knee is going to blow out or they'll come down with a rare bout of rheumatism. Do you ever just get the hunch (educated or not) that an important player is going to go down with an injury before you draft, so you snatch their backup just to stash them on your bench for the rest of the year and wait? I play in a total points league (not head to head), so it generally pays off to stash a guy or two like this on your bench and ride it out, in hopes of getting major value when the starter goes down. Two years ago, I took LJ in the 5th round. Last year I took MJD in the 9th. Needless to say, I've finished 1st and 2nd those years. Who this year is going to go down? Who do you think is a worthy target for a "stash and play for that injury day?" I was thinking Turner might be the guy there. What round would you suggest taking him? Does any one else just have a "feeling" about Tomlinson? I'm usually not a fan of handcuffing RBs. Most of the time when a full time starter goes down the workload either gets spread out or the backups get shuffled around until one shows some worth. Turner for LT is one of those few exceptions where you know the backup can be at least close to being as productive as the starter so anyone would be taking a bit of a risk not to take him if he's available. To be honest though I can't really see any other backup RBs who are not in a RBBC already that would be worthy of drafting just for the sake of having insurance for injury with little expectation of them playing otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 I'm usually not a fan of handcuffing RBs. Most of the time when a full time starter goes down the workload either gets spread out or the backups get shuffled around until one shows some worth. Turner for LT is one of those few exceptions where you know the backup can be at least close to being as productive as the starter so anyone would be taking a bit of a risk not to take him if he's available. To be honest though I can't really see any other backup RBs who are not in a RBBC already that would be worthy of drafting just for the sake of having insurance for injury with little expectation of them playing otherwise. Brian Leonard is one I can think of but there aren't many... I wonder how often Tony Hunt would get the ball if Westy went down.... although it would be between him and Buckhalter... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 LJ, Bush, LT and Gore Now that wouldn't have much impact on FF leagues.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Now that wouldn't have much impact on FF leagues.... nope...that is why I am drafting Carson palmer 1st Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebdog Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Every year I seem to get a hunch about certain players...that hunch that maybe their knee is going to blow out or they'll come down with a rare bout of rheumatism. Do you ever just get the hunch (educated or not) that an important player is going to go down with an injury before you draft, so you snatch their backup just to stash them on your bench for the rest of the year and wait? I play in a total points league (not head to head), so it generally pays off to stash a guy or two like this on your bench and ride it out, in hopes of getting major value when the starter goes down. Two years ago, I took LJ in the 5th round. Last year I took MJD in the 9th. Needless to say, I've finished 1st and 2nd those years. Who this year is going to go down? Who do you think is a worthy target for a "stash and play for that injury day?" I was thinking Turner might be the guy there. What round would you suggest taking him? Does any one else just have a "feeling" about Tomlinson? hunch? can you communicate with my dear departed grandmother too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 LJ - look at backs who have had 400+ carries, then look what happened the following year. If I picked 8th and he fell to me I wold pass. You'd regret it all season too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Well I really don't like discussing injuries, it gets a lot of people fired up. But yes I've had a hunch for a couple months now and it's uh, uh uh been Petyon that I've had my hunch on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 There is some seriously bad ju-ju going on in this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishFreak Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Adrian Peterson, I have a hunch Benson either gets hurt or replaced, for lack of production I really like this angle since Benson is so overrated and unproven. Plus Peterson can be had so late. Obviously guys like Turner and Betts are serious contenders who would put up good stats should LT or Portis go down.....But they are on everyone's radar and being drafted too high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 You'd regret it all season too Perhaps - but that would be different than from what we've seen in the past: Terrell Davis (1997): 369 carries, 481 including the postseason. The latter total is an NFL record. Davis was spectacular again in 1998, but that season’s total of 392 regular-season carries basically ended his career. Eddie George (1999): 320 carries, 428 including the postseason. He fell from 4.1 to 3.7 yards per carry in 2000, and after 403 regular-season carries he was never again an effective player. Curtis Martin (1998): 369 carries, 418 including the postseason. Martin saw no ill effects; 1998 was actually his worst year until 2005. Thurman Thomas (1993): 355 carries, 418 including the postseason. Thomas continued to play well but never again was able to carry the ball 300 times in a season. Joe Morris (1986): 341 carries, 414 including the postseason. The following year Morris plummeted from 4.4 to 3.4 yards per carry. By 1989, his career was over due to nerve damage and broken bones in his feet, except for a short-lived comeback with the 1991 Browns. Jamal Lewis (2000): 309 carries, 412 including the postseason. 103 postseason carries is the third-highest total in history, and Lewis tore his ACL the next year. Corey Dillon (2005): 345 carries, 410 including the postseason. Fell from 4.7 to 3.5 yards per carry and only managed 12 games due to injuries. Emmitt Smith (1991): 365 carries, 406 including the postseason. No ill effects. Ahman Green (2003): 355 carries, 403 including the postseason. Dropped from 5.3 yards per carry in 2003 to 4.5 yards per carry in 2004 and then 3.3 yards per carry in 2005, when he missed 11 games because of injuries. Earl Campbell (1979): 368 carries, 401 including the postseason. Improved in 1980, when another heavy workload cost him most of his effectiveness in 1981 and beyond. Natrone Means (1994): 343 carries, 400 including the postseason. Only played 10 games the following year due to injuries, never again played a full season, and retired in 2000 at the age of 28. Dorsey Levens (1997): 329 carries, 400 including the postseason. Only played seven games in 1998, never again had 100 carries in a season after 1999, didn’t average four yards per carry again until 2002. To summarize, eight of these 12 players were injured or lost effectiveness the following season. A ninth, Thomas, was still effective and healthy, but lost stamina. Three players, Davis, Campbell, and Smith (1994) had problems two seasons later, after another year of overuse. Only two of these players, Martin and Smith (1991) seemed to have no ill effects for multiple seasons afterwards. This is CARRIES, not touches. last years: carries/yds - touches/yards 1 Larry Johnson KC - 416 1789 - 457 2199 - 2 Steven Jackson STL - 346 1528 - 436 2334 3 LaDainian Tomlinson - 348 1815 - 404 2323 - So can use the sunglass smilie all you want. But I rest my case with these facts. Is LJ a freak of nature like Curtis Martin? Or is he like the other 8 out of 11? I'll take my chances that he's NOT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Perhaps - but that would be different than from what we've seen in the past:This is CARRIES, not touches. last years: carries/yds - touches/yards 1 Larry Johnson KC - 416 1789 - 457 2199 - 2 Steven Jackson STL - 346 1528 - 436 2334 3 LaDainian Tomlinson - 348 1815 - 404 2323 - So can use the sunglass smilie all you want. But I rest my case with these facts. Is LJ a freak of nature like Curtis Martin? Or is he like the other 8 out of 11? I'll take my chances that he's NOT. this is my argument for letting LJ slide to the 5 spot....still, even after signing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pip's Invitation Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Top RB most likely to get hurt? Whomever I take in the first round of my draft on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Misfit Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 BB is right, there is some seriously bad juju going on here. First off, the OPs two examples were not "hunches." Two years ago, I think LJ was getting drafted no later than the sixth round in almost every league. You had the best O-line in the league in a productive, RB-centered offense where the starter was hurt and celebrating his 43rd year in the NFL. In MJD's case, well, he didn't get the name "Fragile Freddy" because he suffers from depression. His backup has routinely been drafted by someone pretty much every season he's been in the league. By contrast, I see no reason to speculate LT will have issues this season. At some point, sure, it's inevitable, and if Turner is around when it happens, he'd be a nice one to have. Passing on LJ with the 8th pick? That's cold, man. Do you fight dogs, by any chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Passing on LJ with the 8th pick? That's cold, man. Do you fight dogs, by any chance? Why is it cold? If I believe he's a legit injury risk I don't want him on my team. And history backs it up. I agree with the juju thing - especially simply saying "I think this is the year becaues my gut tells me." I think this is the year for LJ because that's what cold, hard facts tells me. Oh, I see..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskey Pimp Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Top RB most likely to get hurt? Whomever I take in the first round of my draft on Saturday. Make sure you post who that is after you're done drafting him, thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 I hear ya Pope, anyway we can incorporate this into a sig line bet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 I hear ya Pope, anyway we can incorporate this into a sig line bet? We can talk about possibilities, but it's downright sick to offer a bet of that type. NO - I'll not be a part of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 We can talk about possibilities, but it's downright sick to offer a bet of that type. NO - I'll not be a part of that. I think you're misunderstanding me. I meant something along the lines of.......you are passing on him at 1.8, there has to be a point where the potential value would be too hard to pass up. I wasn't wanting to make a bet on wether he'll get hurt and his career will ever be the same again after that many carries, I'm pretty sure you're in the minority with that thought Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Peyton Manning is due for an injury. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 (edited) here's a quote from an article on ESPN.com about LJ... Asked Wednesday if he thought he'd be 100 percent ready by Sept. 9 when the Chiefs open at Houston, Johnson said, "No, it'll take a little bit more than that." "Obviously, coaches are going to do a great job trying to get me on track to where week two or week three of the season I can hit my full stride," he said. "I'm going to try to pick up as fast as I can." I didn't know he was hurt..... Edited August 22, 2007 by Avernus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Peyton Manning is due for an injury. so is Favre for that matter.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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