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Week 2 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

I think from last week's thread, many of us had some pretty successful week 1s. Personally I went 5-0 on plays, and 3-1 in leans I did not play. Played light but was happy w/ the winnings.

 

Week 1 we saw Favs go 12-4 SU, 9-5-2 ATS, and the Under go 11-5. Many more favs than usual: Last year we had Favs go 8-7 SU but 5-10 ATS.

But that was week 1, and on to week 2.

 

As promised, I will do an analysis of teasers, probably tomorrow, and post the findings. Until then, time to sharpen the pencils and hit the week 2 lines. Here's to as successful a week 2 as we did week 1!

 

Edit: Big John or other Mod, please change this title to week 2. Thanks.

Edited by Steeltown Dre
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One play I am looking at already is GB against the Giants.

 

I agree with that play. The Packer defense shouldn't have too much trouble shutting down a backup QB and a backup RB.

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The other play that I can see right off the bat is Bengals -6.5 over the Browns. I don't think any team led by Derek Anderson, home or away, has a chance to hang within one TD of the Bengals... or at least the Browns don't :D

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I really wish I would have had bigger balls last weekend, I was nailing games throughout, including both of the Monday night games. Should have won a fortune, but I was playing small ball. (isn't that always the way though?) Went 5 of 6 on the games I played.

 

My first bets this week are a couple of parlays. I took N.O. -3 and Chicago -12.

 

Second parlay USC -9.5 and Chicago -12. Big numbers both of them, but I like those plays as well as anything on the board right now.

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Guys, I'm going to post my data on teasers. If you find it easier to read in a webpage form, check it out here: http://sharpfootballanalysis.blogspot.com/

 

The Truth About Teasers

 

The next in my background articles about sports betting, I’m tackling the topic of teasers. I have seen many this week discuss going the route of teasers. Teasing is a way for a player to take the fav but give fewer points (or eventually receive them) and/or to take the dog and get more points. The catch is, instead having to win only 1 game in a regular ATS bet, you have to win more:

 

2 games in a standard 6 point teaser

3 games in a 10 point teaser

4 games in a 13 point “super” teaser

 

I’ve analyzed teasers from 2000 onwards. That gives us 7 full seasons of data. I looked at teasing from two vantage points: The first is teasing the Underdog, the second is teasing the Favorite.

 

The point of this article is to get actual information on historical trends to help predict future results. The main point is to show you which key numbers are the most key to cross in a teaser, and which teasers win most often and which do not.

 

The other thing you should know is that I have calculated my %s of winning a teaser based on picking 2 teams from that same range in the line. For instance, when calculating odds of winning a teaser for underdogs of +0.5 to +3 in a 6 point teaser, I found out the odds of an underdog who was +0.5 to +3 getting 6 additional points, and how they would have done ATS. In this case, the odds were that you would hit 73% of the games in that situation. But those are not the odds to win the teaser, as you have to hit 2 games to win the teaser.

 

So for a 2 game teaser, you multiply the odds together. For purposes of my comparative analysis, I multiplied 73% x 73%. Which gives you 54%. So if you teased 2 teams together in a 6 point teaser, and both were between +0.5 and +3, you would have a 54% chance of winning.

 

What I didn’t calculate was the chance of winning a teaser if you teased 2 teams by 6 points, but the first was between +0.5 and +3, and the second was between +6.5 and +10. I calculated the individual chances, but not the combination of the two. I will post a table which will allow you to do the math yourself, all that is required is to multiply the %s together.

 

First, a little background on needed % of wins to make money. I’ve taken the following paragraph from a respected site:

 

It has been well documented that a monkey flipping a coin can expect to hit 50% of his games. It is also understood that this same monkey needs to have a winning % greater than 52.37% to overcome the -110 juice and simply break even. Reduced juice betting drastically affects the win % by bringing this number down: -107 = 51.67%, and -105 = 51.22%.

 

So as you can see, you have flexibility when placing standard bets. You can place the bet when the juice is to your liking. Pinny will keep the line still but shift the juice from + juice to – juice, all in the matter of hours. You can also buy points to get yourself to certain numbers you want. Of course, it gets expensive to buy to key numbers, like 3 or 7, but to get to other numbers, it is not as expensive.

 

The bottom line, when placing a typical spread bet, you have flexibility. However, when placing a teaser, that flexibility goes out the window. No buying points, no selecting games based on juice. Teasers at sportsbooks will have standard juice, no matter which teams you select. 2-team, 6-point teasers will have a certain amount of juice, which will most likely be different from 3-team 10 point teasers and different from 4-team 13 point teasers.

 

There are many articles out there about how to tease published by different sites, and I’m not here to talk about generalities. There are many gamblers out there who say “Teasers are the Devil”, and some who like teasing. I’m not here to convince you one way or another. What I am trying to do is show you, based on historical fact, which teasing situations are most likely to win and which are most likely to lose.

 

With that said, on to teasing underdogs.

 

Teasing the Underdog

 

As you know from my prior posts, betting on underdogs, on average, have a better chance of winning. In fact, since 2000, Underdogs have gone 51% ATS.

 

Here are the results of my analysis on underdogs, first just the numbers, and then graphically. The numbers are in red if the likelihood of hitting the teaser is HIGHER than that of a single ATS bet without teasing. The cell is shaded a light yellow if the % is higher than 52.37%, and is therefore profitable at standard juice:

 

http://bp1.blogger.com/_cOrbgqgQDgs/Rug9bL...0-h/UD+Data.bmp

 

http://bp2.blogger.com/_cOrbgqgQDgs/Rug9bb...-h/UD+graph.bmp

 

 

As you can see, teasing underdogs is typically not the way to go.

  • There was only one occurrence of the % being higher than 52.37% on a underdog teaser, that being teasing dogs 6 points that are less than or equal to +3.
  • Most all the other games are well below the winning % of picking a single game ATS in that same point spread range.
  • As the point spreads get higher, the chances of you winning on a underdog teaser get lower.

 

Teasing the Favorite

 

Here are the results for teasing the favorite. As you can see, much better than underdogs, and in most cases, better than picking the favorite in a single game ATS.

 

http://bp2.blogger.com/_cOrbgqgQDgs/Rug9bb...-h/Fav+Data.bmp

 

http://bp3.blogger.com/_cOrbgqgQDgs/Rug9br...h/Fav+Graph.bmp

 

  • With favs of a FG or less, every tease presented better odds than picking the individual game ATS.
  • The highest odds (aside from very high point spreads above 14) came when teasing the favorite by 13 points in a game where the spread is more than a FG but less than a TD.
  • There are certain times when teasing a favorite is beneficial, and certain times when teasing a favorite should be avoided. These are shown in the table and graph above.

 

 

Situational Teasing

 

The other thing this analysis did not take in to account is the element of situational teasing. Such as when the total is high or low, or the public perception of certain teams based on their record. For instance:

 

http://bp0.blogger.com/_cOrbgqgQDgs/Rug8_7...Situational.bmp

 

As you can see, in the case where the line was very high and the total was not extremely high(<45)favs were more likely to cover in all situations, especially if teasing by 10 or 13 points.

 

In a similar situation, with a high line, but a higher total (>45), the underdog was more likely to cover in a 6 or 13 point teaser. Notice how the 10 point teaser did not help at all in this case.

 

There are likely many other situational spots where I could look up teaser information, and find high odds of winning a particular teaser based on line and tease type. However, I've already taken too much time as it is, and that will have to be done another time.

 

Table to perform your own Odds Calculations:

 

Lastly, I’ll include a table which you can use to calculate your own odds. Essentially, if you want to do a calculate your odds of winning, you take the percentage from the appropriate box for the starting line you want to use, and multiply it times the percentage for the next team in the teaser. If it’s a 2 team 6 point teaser, you multiply Team 1’s % x Team 2’s %. In a 4 team 13 point teaser, you multiply all 4 teams’s % to come up w/ your odds of winning.

 

http://bp0.blogger.com/_cOrbgqgQDgs/Rug8_7...lc+your+own.bmp

 

From this table, you should see:

 

  • If you want to take a 6 point teaser on a favorite, best chances of winning are if the spread is a FG or less, or if the spread is higher than a TD. Whereas the odds of success on a 13 point teaser on a favorite does not have as large a difference between original point spreads.
  • When teasing an underdog, your chances are highest when you tease a small underdog. Taking large underdogs in teasers is not as wise.

 

 

Overall summary points:

 

  • While many say teasers are sucker bets, that is not always the case.
  • The time to take teasers are if you want to tease favorites, particularly in a 10 or 13 point teaser.
  • However, in most all other cases (with a few exceptions), you have better odds of just getting individual games correct than you do of hitting a teaser.
  • The exceptions are certain opening lines have better odds of hitting than others. The tables above shows these situations, and show when certain teasers (6, 10 or 13 point) are more wise to play due to their odds of hitting.
  • Remember, just because a teaser has high odds historically has nothing to do with its ability to win on a certain future date. Smart and accurate capping should occur, and when certain games are determined to be high percentage plays, and the likelihood of hitting that teaser is high based on the historical data presented above, teasers are perfectly acceptable.
  • In general, more people lose teasers than those who win them. And more people lose playing teasers than when they make standard ATS plays. Essentially, teasers typically produce more money for outlets than regular plays, so remember that when jumping at a “easy teaser”

 

I hope this information, while difficult to explain (and I’m sure follow along), was made easier to comprehend through the use of the graphs and charts. Nothing on this side of the oddsmaker is "easy", but hopefully, equipped with this knowledge, you can gain insight as to times to play teasers (if desired) and more importantly, times when not to play, as the odds are significantly against you. And remember, I'm not coming up w/ these odds from a "mathematical" perspective. These are real, actual results from the 2000 NFL season all the way until today. Good luck capping this week and the rest of this season!

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I really wish I would have had bigger balls last weekend, I was nailing games throughout, including both of the Monday night games. Should have won a fortune, but I was playing small ball. (isn't that always the way though?) Went 5 of 6 on the games I played.

 

My first bets this week are a couple of parlays. I took N.O. -3 and Chicago -12.

 

Second parlay USC -9.5 and Chicago -12. Big numbers both of them, but I like those plays as well as anything on the board right now.

 

not quite shure how you "nail" both MFL games.........unless you are talking totals........

 

SF/AZ was a push

Cin/Balt?- Cincy covered off one of the wors calls I have ever seen, and that game was looking like a push for CIn at BEST if Heap's catch is rightly called a TD.

Edited by wildcat2334
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not quite shure how you "nail" both MFL games.........unless you are talking totals........

 

SF/AZ was a push

Cin/Balt?- Cincy covered off one of the wors calls I have ever seen, and that game was looking like a push for CIn at BEST if Heap's catch is rightly called a TD.

Clarification:

 

3 Team Parlay

Football - NFL Lines (Game)Moneyline

(430) Dallas Cowboys-290 Sun@8:15p

 

 

Final Scores

New York Giants35

Dallas Cowboys45

 

 

 

Football - NFL Lines (Game)Pointspread

(432) Cincinnati Bengals-3 (+105) Mon@7:00p

 

 

Final Scores

Baltimore Ravens20

Cincinnati Bengals27

 

 

 

Football - NFL Lines (Game)Moneyline

(434) San Francisco 49ers-180 Mon@10:15p

 

 

Final Scores

Arizona Cardinals17

San Francisco 49ers20

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Hate to say this, but I would bet the house against the Niners this week...team has to travel after a Monday night (a late one at that)...Steven Jackson I think is going to have a mother of a game...

 

Hope I am wrong on this!

 

I think you could be wrong there. While they may (or may not) lose, I wouldn't go betting the house on it as I think the niners will provide good competition. They are division rivals after all so know each other pretty well to begin with. The preparation San Fran. should need to cram into the few days of practice this week should be minimal because of that, so I don't think the late night game should matter. San Fran. went 1-1 against the Rams last year, and only lost by one in the game they lost. I think the 49ers have made some key additions to their team this season in comparison to last, while I can't say the same about the Rams. It seems to me the Rams defense will be just as bad this year as it was last, or nearly as bad at any rate.

Edited by Crazysight
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My recent posting on my league page:

 

After going 3 for 4 with last week's picks and netting a smooth 310 dollars following a 350 dollar deposit and 50 dollar bonus, "The Greek" is now up to $710 dollars and is ready to make his picks on this coming weeks games.

 

Pick of the week:

Indianapolis at Tennessee +7.5

 

After derailing the Superbowl favorite Saints last week, the defending champion Colts face their division rival, the Tennessee Titans. The Titans started off well with a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars and their vaunted defense. It's notable that although the statistics rarely look spectacular for the Titans, quarterback Vince Young and company are a scrappy bunch that knows how to hang in there and find a way to win. In his rookie season last year Young led the Titans to a thrilling week 12 20-17 win over the Colts at home, and narrowly missed beating them on the road during week 4, losing 14-13. This is one of those games that will likely come down to the wire. As such a 7.5 point cushion for the Titans is very desirable.

 

Other notables:

 

Cincinnati (-7) at Cleveland - After getting blown out at home against Pittsburgh last week, the Cleveland Browns look to get blown out again this week. Everybody knows that Derek Anderson is not the answer in Cleveland, including Derek Anderson. Brady Quinn may make a surprise appearance in this one, but it shouldn't matter. Expect Cincinnati to roll.

 

Houston (+7) at Carolina. Carolina looked quite potent last week, but they were playing against a team that had one of the worst defenses in the league in 2006 and that did little if anything to improve it over the offseason. It helps when St. Louis best playmaker stumbles over his own feet and puts the ball on the ground, too. Houston is a team that has some solid young playmakers on defense, and some quality playmakers on offense as well. Quarterback Matt Schaub is still a bit of an enigma and Houston's new group of players on offense seem to be just starting to jel, but expect Houston to have a decent showing in this one following their week 1 victory against Kansas City.

Edited by Crazysight
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Baltimore killed me last night and made me have a negative week. One play I am looking at already is GB against the Giants.

 

Yeah, the BAL game put something of a damper on my week, too. Still finished up, but not where I wanted to be.

 

It was still the right call. Despite all the turnovers the Ravens almost got it done. Think what might have happened had they played error free football.

 

Thems the breaks, on to Week Two :D

Edited by Gdawg
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My recent posting on my league page:

 

After going 3 for 4 with last week's picks and netting a smooth 310 dollars following a 350 dollar deposit and 50 dollar bonus, "The Greek" is now up to $710 dollars and is ready to make his picks on this coming weeks games.

 

Pick of the week:

Indianapolis at Tennessee +7.5

 

After derailing the Superbowl favorite Saints last week, the defending champion Colts face their division rival, the Tennessee Titans. The Titans started off well with a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars and their vaunted defense. It's notable that although the statistics rarely look spectacular for the Titans, quarterback Vince Young and company are a scrappy bunch that knows how to hang in there and find a way to win. In his rookie season last year Young led the Titans to a thrilling week 12 20-17 win over the Colts at home, and narrowly missed beating them on the road during week 4, losing 14-13. This is one of those games that will likely come down to the wire. As such a 7.5 point cushion for the Titans is very desirable.

 

Other notables:

 

Cincinnati (-7) at Cleveland - After getting blown out at home against Pittsburgh last week, the Cleveland Browns look to get blown out again this week. Everybody knows that Derek Anderson is not the answer in Cleveland, including Derek Anderson. Brady Quinn may make a surprise appearance in this one, but it shouldn't matter. Expect Cincinnati to roll.

 

Houston (+7) at Carolina. Carolina looked quite potent last week, but they were playing against a team that had one of the worst defenses in the league in 2006 and that did little if anything to improve it over the offseason. It helps when St. Louis best playmaker stumbles over his own feet and puts the ball on the ground, too. Houston is a team that has some solid young playmakers on defense, and some quality playmakers on offense as well. Quarterback Matt Schaub is still a bit of an enigma and Houston's new group of players on offense seem to be just starting to jel, but expect Houston to have a decent showing in this one following their week 1 victory against Kansas City.

 

I agree with all of those picks, and your thoughts on the Rams/Niners as well. Those are all plays that are on my radar.

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I refuse to bet any Tennessee games this year on principle alone. They killed me last year. They seem to have almost no talent but somehow pull out games they have no business being in. Ugh. (BTW, I loved JAX week 1 but did not take them)

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Just an FYI on the Titans:

 

Using data from 2006 and the 1st week of 2007, Ten has been underdogs in 14 of the 17 games they played!! Of those 14 games they were underdogs, they covered 11. That's right, they went 11-3. Of those 11 wins, they only lost the game SU 3 times. That means they covered as dogs in 79% of their games, and won SU in their games as dogs 57%.

 

Even more impressive, since Vince Young started for them (which was week 5, I believe - correct me if I'm wrong), Ten has covered in 10 of the 11 games they were dogs. That's 91%. And won 8 of the 10 SU.

 

For 8 straight weeks last season (weeks 9-16) they were dogs. Starting in week 10, they covered every single game, and starting week 11 (that's 6 straight) they won outright as dogs.

 

Last year against Indy, they were +17.5 dogs and lost by 1 in week 5, Vince's first game as starter (again, correct me if I'm wrong). Week 13 they played in Ten, and this time Ten was +7.5 dogs, and won outright 20-17.

 

This week the game is at home, and Ten is +7....

Edited by Steeltown Dre
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Just an FYI on the Titans:

 

Using data from 2006 and the 1st week of 2007, Ten has been underdogs in 14 of the 17 games they played!! Of those 14 games they were underdogs, they covered 11. That's right, they went 11-3. Of those 11 wins, they only lost the game SU 3 times. That means they covered as dogs in 79% of their games, and won SU in their games as dogs 57%.

 

Even more impressive, since Vince Young started for them (which was week 5, I believe - correct me if I'm wrong), Ten has covered in 10 of the 11 games they were dogs. That's 91%. And won 8 of the 10 SU.

 

For 8 straight weeks last season (weeks 9-16) they were dogs. Starting in week 10, they covered every single game, and starting week 11 (that's 6 straight) they won outright as dogs.

 

Last year against Indy, they were +17.5 dogs and lost by 1 in week 5, Vince's first game as starter (again, correct me if I'm wrong). Week 13 they played in Ten, and this time Ten was +7.5 dogs, and won outright 20-17.

 

This week the game is in Indy, and Ten is +7....

 

Was just reading a little about this earlier Dre, truly a remarkable trend. Considering a few $$$ on the Titans this weekend.

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Spurned by my research on the Titans, I decided to write a helpful article on Dogs/Fav records ATS:

 

Best Bets on Dogs, Stray from these Favs

 

Last year, as the year progressed, you can tell which teams the public "buys into". And just as easily, you can tell which teams the public just does not understand.

 

"Why do they keep losing, they are stacked w/ talent and coaching?"

or

"I can't believe this team keeps covering - they should get blown out. They're killing me!"

 

And yet game after game, these teams continue to be undervalued or overvalued. We can learn from last year, but once again, you still have to look at this years teams/stats/results and not just bet on a team who was great as a Dog ATS last season for no other reason but that one.

 

Getting started, let's look at the Favorites:

 

The Broncos were the worst offender on this list. They were made favorites in 13 of their 16 games, and failed to cover in 10 of the 13 games. However, they were able to win 8 of those games. We saw a repeat of this AGAIN this season in week 1, where they lost as favorites in Buffalo. Not much has changed.

 

A close second offender were the Jags. They failed to cover in 7 of the 10 games they were favorites. The even bigger problem - they failed to win those games. If they didn't cover, they didn't win. And if they won, they would cover. We saw a repeat of this AGAIN this season in week 1, where they lost outright to the Titans. Not much has changed.

 

The Broncos in particular were one of those teams the public just did not get. Vegas continued to make money by making Denver the favorite, and the public continued to wager on them.

 

The teams in red are those favorites who would have lost you money if you took them and laid the points on every game they were favored.

 

On the other hand, the Jets were kind to bettors. They went 5-1 as favorites ATS (and of course won them all, as they were favored).

 

So far this season, of the teams who would have won you money last year, the Chargers, Bengals, Steelers and Pats were all favored in week 1. And they all covered. Not much has changed. But be careful, none of those teams had "way above avg" ATS ratings, but they were better than average.

 

The Jets far and away would be the team that got the job done last year. They are another example of a team the public did not get. The public would take the dog, and the Jets would continue to cover.... the opponents in these games were among the NFL's lowliest - Mia, Det, Hou, GB, Buf, Oak. But even though the oddsmakers kept the lines below -5 for the Jets (except Oak), the easy money was not so easy to the public, and those who took the Jets and laid points walked away happy.

 

http://bp2.blogger.com/_cOrbgqgQDgs/RulkhL...06+ATS+favs.bmp

 

Next, the Underdogs:

 

There were some underdogs who did absolutely terrible ATS last year. But they kept failing to cover the spread, and you made out if you bet against them. There were 4 teams that were underdogs in 14 of their 16 games. These teams were viewed as terrible by the avg bettor. They were:

 

Oak, GB, Det and Ten.

 

How do you think those teams did SU? Not as bad as you may think - 20-36.

 

What about ATS? How about 29-26. That's right, they actually had a winning record ATS.

 

The reason? Part of it has to do with the fact that the public just does not understand most underdogs. Another part was the Titans. These guys went 11-3 ATS despite being constantly made the underdogs. And worse than that?

 

Of those 11 wins, they only lost the game SU 3 times. That means they covered as dogs in 79% of their games, and won SU in their games as dogs 57%.

 

Even more impressive, since Vince Young started for them (which was week 5, I believe - correct me if I'm wrong), Ten has covered in 10 of the 11 games they were dogs. That's 91%. And won 8 of the 10 SU. For 8 straight weeks last season (weeks 9-16) they were dogs. Starting in week 10, they covered every single game, and starting week 11 (that's 6 straight) they won outright as dogs.

 

Looking at week 1 of this season, the Titans were dogs to the Jags, and the Titans covered and won SU as well. Not much has changed.

 

Other teams that were particularly impressive were the Saints and the Bills. Don't expect the public to sleep on the Saints this year, but they may on the Bills. While covering the spread in 8 of their 11 games as dogs, they actually lost 7 of them. So careful on ML-ing the Bills, but taking the points may not be too bad an investment in the right situation.

 

In the Bills first game of this season, they covered as dogs but lost SU to the Broncos. Not much has changed.

 

Looking at the other side, the teams to be extra cautious is the Redskins. By far the worst record ATS as dogs, the Skins went 4-9 ATS.

 

http://bp3.blogger.com/_cOrbgqgQDgs/Rulkhb...06+ATS+dogs.bmp

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Week one: Pitt -4 WINNER

 

Week two: St. Louis -3 and Buffalo +10

 

Congrats on Week One :D

 

I haven't really looked at the STL game yet, but I do have some misgivings with regard to the BUF pick. What's your reasoning behind it? Just curious.

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Hate to say this, but I would bet the house against the Niners this week...team has to travel after a Monday night (a late one at that)...Steven Jackson I think is going to have a mother of a game...

 

Hope I am wrong on this!

 

I'd be careful there. The Rams O-Line is in complete disarray, with three of the five starters for Sunday either backups or are starting out of position. And the defense shows no signs of improvement over last year. The particular weakness - TE's. SF could win this one straight up. I'll be at the game, and as a fan I hope you're right. As a handicapper, I wouldn't touch this game with a ten-foot pole.

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Was just reading a little about this earlier Dre, truly a remarkable trend. Considering a few $$$ on the Titans this weekend.

 

Love me some Titans this week.

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Yeah, the BAL game put something of a damper on my week, too. Still finished up, but not where I wanted to be.

 

It was still the right call. Despite all the turnovers the Ravens almost got it done. Think what might have happened had they played error free football.

 

Thems the breaks, on to Week Two :D

 

I agree it was the right call too. Should be a better week!

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