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IMHO, we are about to experience a windfall...


cre8tiff
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Think about it. Top picks are tanking everwhere. As I said in another thread, this may be the absolute best time ever for the experienced trade negotiator.

 

I have a fish on the line right now, considering taking Caddy for LJ. Holy Smokes! There are tons of panicking noobs out there, and this is a great time to take advantage.

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Think about it. Top picks are tanking everwhere. As I said in another thread, this may be the absolute best time ever for the experienced trade negotiator.

 

I have a fish on the line right now, considering taking Caddy for LJ. Holy Smokes! There are tons of panicking noobs out there, and this is a great time to take advantage.

 

Methinks you might be the fish ...

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Larry Johnson And Chris Henry Down The Stretch

Posted 8/29 by Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Most every league championship has a mid season "turning point" where the season is won by the guy making that one decisive move. And lost by the guy that fails to choose correctly.

 

It's late August but I'd like to be so bold as to predict such a mid season scenario where I think that might happen. It's still some nine weeks away but how you plan today could be the difference in whether you're able to pull it off or not.

 

Sound crazy? Maybe. Let's see.

 

I'm proposing that you set yourself up to trade for Chiefs running back Larry Johnson after Week 7.

 

Let's first assume Johnson is going to go at #3 in your draft. With Johnson ending his holdout, he shot back up everyone's draft board behind Tomlinson and Jackson. That's about right. The RBs to me look something like this:

 

LaDainian Tomlinson - Chargers. Next.

Steven Jackson - Rams. Not the no brainer that Tomlinson is but he just feels like the right guy here. Big, fast, young but experienced, no competition and in the perfect offense for him. I wouldn't take him over Tomlinson under any circumstance, but I jump on him at #2.

Larry Johnson - Chiefs. Rounds out the Big Three. If he'd nailed down his contract extension back in April, he'd be #2 with an argument (albeit a weak one) for #1 over Tomlinson. Jackson's rise and Johnson's holdout drop him a spot to #3.

 

The rest are all great but they've got downsides too:

 

 

Joe Addai - Colts. The worry for Addai is that he hasn't been the full time guy since high school. We all "think" he can do it. Peyton Manning "thinks" he can do it. Until we "see" him do it, he doesn't make the top 3.

Willie Parker - Steelers. We love Parker and gracing the cover of our Footballguys Strategy Guide Magazine is worth quite a bit, but he's not top three material.

Frank Gore - 49ers. He feels like he's always one tackle away from another major surgery. Opening the camp in 2007 with a broken hand didn't make anyone feel any better. Nobody questions his heart. I question his ligaments.

Brian Westbrook - Eagles. At 203 pounds, Westbrook hasn't been healthy for a full season since Villanova.

Shaun Alexander - Seahawks. He scares people with a foot that may or may not still be broken according to him. He's made a career out of being undervalued and underappreciated and this year doesn't seem much different.

Reggie Bush - Saints. Another Footballguys Cover Guy (2006) but Deuce McAllister is too much to worry about for a top three pick. Even if Bush catches 85 passes.

Travis Henry - Broncos. My personal favorite out of all the top 10 for value but he's not without questions either. He's battled injury and limped off the field last week with a mild MCL sprain but he's back at practice now.

What's that mean? It means someone is going to draft Larry Johnson with the third pick in your draft.

 

Big deal.

Well maybe it is. Because I don't think Larry Johnson is going to perform like a #3 draft pick for the first half of the season, and I think you're going to have an owner that might be open to trading. Here's why.

 

The Holdout

Larry Johnson's holdout was one of the most watched situations in all of football this summer. While his teammates were in River Falls, Wisconsin, Johnson was working out at the Athletes Performance Institute (API) in Arizona. It's not like Johnson was at home on the couch. API is one of the premiere workout facilities in the country. When an NBA or NFL hopeful wants to improve his draft stock, he goes to API. When a MLB baseball player needs to strengthen his back, he goes to API. Johnson worked as hard as you can work out in the desert. For a while, he had Browns QB Brady Quinn as a workout partner as Quinn waited for his deal to be done.

 

But, working hard at API is not the same as working with your teammates in River Falls. You don't get into "football shape" running sprints with Brady Quinn. Football shape comes from hitting in pads and pushing a pile and blowing up a rookie linebacker. Johnson will get there. But he's not there yet.

 

Slow Starter

Johnson raised a lot of eyebrows last week when he was asked if he'd be 100% in two weeks in time for the Week 1 opener.

 

Johnson said, "It will take a little longer than that. Obviously Coach is going to do a great job of getting me on track to where in Week Two or Week Three of the season I'm going to hit my full stride. I'm going to try to pick it up as fast as I can because what I know about myself is that I've never been a fast starter coming out of the blocks in a season. It's always been the last eight games is when I really turn it on. Obviously I'm going to push myself as hard as I can to kind of even it out."

 

It's tough to read too much into what a guy says when he's thrust up on the podium under the lights but what he's saying rings true. Johnson's game is built on power and wearing the defense down. He's the guy that gets stronger as the game goes on. He's also the guy that seems to get stronger as the season goes on. It's totally conceivable that coupled with the holdout, Johnson could get off to a slow start.

 

The Schedule

Schedule Strength is one of the things we do best at Footballguys. Yes, we know defenses are tough to predict. We know things change from year to year and Defensive strength is difficult to forecast. It's also entirely worth doing. If we bailed on everything that was difficult to do, our site would not have much besides my Random Shots column. Thankfully for you, that's not the case. I'm a big believer in the Ultimate Strength of Schedule our Clayton Gray puts together for us each year. If you want the details on everything, click here. If you'd like the cliff notes version, here it is: Larry Johnson has one of the toughest schedules for any running back over the first eight games of the season.

 

But that's just the half of it. Larry Johnson has one of the easiest schedules for any running back over the second half of the season. Including those all important Fantasy Playoff Weeks in Week 15 and 16. Again, schedule strength isn't everything. Things can change. But looking at the running backs right now, there isn't a guy in the league with a better prospect to have a dramatically better second half of the season compared to what he'll post in the first half.

 

The Move

So I propose you let an owner draft Larry Johnson with the #3 pick and then watch him post less than expected numbers for the first seven games. Then you take Johnson from him in time for LJ to explode and carry you down the stretch. Here's how you'll do it.

 

First off, make a determination as to whether the guy likely to draft Larry Johnson is a guy you can trade with. Every league has that "one guy" who will offer you Tarvaris Jackson for Tom Brady straight up. If he's the guy that gets Johnson, you might want to pass on this idea. But if the guy that drafts Johnson is a guy you can deal with, I'd give this a shot.

 

Remember that most owners are guilty of tunnel vision. They're able to see about two weeks behind them and one week ahead. So a key to pulling this off is trading for Johnson as he enters his bye week. The Johnson owner will know he's getting nothing for Johnson in Week 8, and we all know the key to trading is "solving the other guy's problem". The Johnson owner's immediate "problem" is obviously he's looking at zero points for him in Week 8. Draft accordingly. In other words, know that the Johnson owner isn't going to be as interested in the following guys as they too are sitting Week 8:

 

Edgerrin James - ARZ

Warrick Dunn / Jerious Norwood - ATL

Willis McGahee - BAL

Julius Jones / Marion Barber - DAL

Shaun Alexander - SEA

So if you want to try this out, dodge these guys at your draft. But don't skimp on running backs as you're likely going to need an elite RB to trade for Johnson. I'd pay particular attention to guys like Travis Henry (DEN), Reggie Bush (NO), and Willie Parker (PIT) who all have very favorable schedules for the first five games of the season.

 

One more thing. Depending on the size of your league and your roster limits, do what you need to do in order to ensure you have good WR depth. One easy and cheap way is to have Bengals WR Chris Henry on your team by Week 6. For some leagues, that means you'll have to draft him late. For others, that means waiver wire. Whatever it is for you, have Henry and / or some cheap WRs with upside on your roster.

 

Then you wait. You play the first seven weeks of the season. You congratulate the Johnson owner when he looks surprisingly good against Houston in Week 1. Because this could be the high point of Johnson's first seven games. At least you're hoping so.

 

After Houston, the Chiefs tackle Chicago, Minnesota, San Diego, Jacksonville then Cincinnati. Then finish their first half with a very tough Week 7 game against Rob Ryan's Raider defense. Then you make your move. When you make the trade offer, you'll have to bring a star player to the table. Hopefully, it's a star that's over performing and is ready to cool off. The goal is to trade your guy that's been playing over his head for Larry Johnson who's been struggling but is ready to explode after a bye week as he starts to feast on weaker defenses.

 

Everyone's trade style is different and you have to find what works for you. Don't force it. What I like to do is never make the initial offer for the guy you really want. Don't go straight after Larry Johnson. Start the trade discussion by asking about a WR or a TE the Johnson owner has. Let him counter with an offer. Then you laugh as if he's asking too much and throw out something along the lines of, "You want __________? He's the heart of my team, let's get serious here if we're going to make a trade. You really want to deal? We're going to have to talk about someone like Larry Johnson if you want ________."

 

If you've played your cards right, that owner comes back with, "Let's hear what you're offering then."

 

Once Johnson is on the table, you of course play it down pulling out the stats thus far. You do the "I dunno, he's only averaging X points a game. That's just X in the league among RBs". (Hopefully well behind your #1 RB.)

 

The Johnson owner says, "But Oakland was a tough defense this week."

 

You counter with, "He's got to play Oakland again Week 12."

 

If it bogs down, you throw in another player and make him throw in another player. This is where your WR depth or Chris Henry comes into play. It's possible Henry's 8-game suspension will be shortened. But even if it's not, he'll be ready by Week 10. He could be the virtually free guy that bursts onto your lineup in Week 10 to help fill any holes you might have created through trade.

 

Don't worry about trading away a good player. You're not going to get Larry Johnson for Vernand Morency and offering something stupid will sour a deal. Make a real offer. Johnson should be better over the second half of the season than any player on any roster not named Tomlinson. Make a good trade but a fair trade.

 

Then you sit back, smile and know that you've made the move that will carry you to the championship. And also smile knowing the former Johnson owner has just made the move that'll cost him the title. But someone has to win. Might as well be you.

 

Joe Bryant

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