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Week 3 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Crazysight
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This is what I see right off the bat:

 

Indianapolis (-5) at Houston (especially if A. Johnson is out)

San Diego (-4) at Green Bay

Buffalo at New England (-15.5)

 

Possibly San Fran at Pittsburgh (-9) as well given Pittsburgh's impressive home streak of giong over the line. I do like San Francisco this year, but Pittsburgh's recent record of beating the line at home is kind of hard to ignore.

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My post on my league page:

 

"Jimmy the Geek" made the right picks last week. He was 2 out of 4 on the ones he mentioned, 3 out 5 on the ones he bet on and 2 out of 3 with his original picks, including his "pick of the week." Only problem is he put his money in the wrong places. You'd think he would have lumped it in his "pick of the week," but, no....

So on top of having the second Sega!tiest team in the league, he also lost a few bills last week. The good news is that he's still up from the $350 that he originally deposited at $570.

 

This week's pick of the week should be no surprise:

 

Pick of the week:

Buffalo at New England (-15.5)

 

Of course I'm going to pick the game that I'll be attending. New England has been flattening people thus far. I expect to see more of the same on Sunday, and, if I'm not driving, be stinking drunk when seeing it too. Otherwise I'll only be somewhat drunk and my brother will be stinking drunk.

 

Other notables:

 

Indianapolis (-5) at Houston

 

Looks like it's -5.5 now, but it was -5 when I placed my bet so boo hoo to those of you who missed out on that. Even at -5.5 I'll still take it. I like Houston quite a bit this year, especially with a healthy Andre Johnson. He will not be healthy in this one however, and I expect Indy to put some points on the board that Houston can't keep up with.

 

San Diego (-4) at Green Bay

 

Norv Turner can't be THAT bad, can he? Maybe I shouldn't ask that, but I do expect San Diego to get it back together next week at Green Bay. I'd feel better taking the moneyline on this one than the points, but I think there's a decent chance that San Diego will cover the spread as well.

 

Weaker pick:

San Francisco at Pittsburgh (-9.0)

I like San Francisco this year. Only thing is I like Pittsburgh better. And they are 15-1 against the line out of their last 16 games when favored at home.

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Let's see if I can make it 3 weeks in a row on my 3-team teasers. It's early, and I'm not laying the bet down yet, but, I'm leaning towards:

 

Indy (+4)

Buffalo (+27)

Steelers (+1)

 

I might change the Steelers pick to the Ravens (+2), but, I think I'm locked in on Indy and Buffalo.

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Let's see if I can make it 3 weeks in a row on my 3-team teasers. It's early, and I'm not laying the bet down yet, but, I'm leaning towards:

 

Indy (+4)

Buffalo (+27)

Steelers (+1)

 

I might change the Steelers pick to the Ravens (+2), but, I think I'm locked in on Indy and Buffalo.

 

Love those teasers, and I like the Steelers +1 there as well. SF is not as good as their record might seem to indicate. Both the AZ and STL games showed that the Niner offense is a awful. They were completely out-statted by STL, especially when you take out Gore's long TD run on a ridiculous missed tackle at the line of scrimmage by Corey Chavous. Throw in the horrible penalties committed by the Rams and very suspect coaching at the end, and SF is VERY lucky to have won that game.

 

As much as I hate to say this kind of stuff to a homer, Pitt is going to expose SF as the pretenders they are. Enjoy the game, you guys are going to roll.

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Top plays this week:

 

Jets -3 vs Miami

Two mediocre clubs, one of which is at home.

 

Dog of the week: Arizona +7.5 @ Baltimore. An improved defense in the desert and a potentially explosive offense (provided Leinart doesn't crap the bed vs. a stellar D).

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My time is limited this week, so I won't be able to drop much info this week. But I will lay some things out Saturday or Sunday and make my plays. Just to keep things updated, my record:

 

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

 

Overall wagers: 7-1

Overall picks: 10-2

 

Looking forward to getting my system off the ground in the next couple weeks. I'll be checking in w/ my plays and tips end of the week.

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I think DET may win this game outright...

 

Thats what moneylines are for, waging on outright winners to gain more bang for your buck.

Edit: instead of taking the points

 

I agree, the Eagles look horrible.....wow could we be seeing the Lions at 3-0?!?!?!

Edited by Mojo Rising
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That Philly secondary is banged up. I definitely like Detroit this week.

 

Wow, how many times has that phrase been written on these boards in the last decade? :D No offense Lions fans, but you'd probably agree it's rare, wouldn't you?

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Wow, how many times has that phrase been written on these boards in the last decade? :D No offense Lions fans, but you'd probably agree it's rare, wouldn't you?

If the Lions can go 3-0 Detroit might burn. I don't dislike the Eagles, but at his moment in time the Lions are the better club.

 

If the Lions win this one they will really start feeling it. Not sure I'm going to bet money on it, but I am going to pick the Lions in my pool.

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If the Lions can go 3-0 Detroit might burn. I don't dislike the Eagles, but at his moment in time the Lions are the better club.

 

If the Lions win this one they will really start feeling it. Not sure I'm going to bet money on it, but I am going to pick the Lions in my pool.

 

I'm as eager as anyone to see this matchup, but so far Detroit has beat Oakland and Minnesota. I'll wait until they beat Philly in Philly before saying they are the better club.

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regardless of Menudo's bias, that line is screaming to take the Lions. a 2-0 getting 6.5 against a 0-2 team? Vegas is trying hard for some reason to gneerate Detroit action, and by the tone of this board, they will be getting it.

 

very similar to last week's CHI/KC line...they were begging the betting public to take CHI -12 over a lousy KC team, and the public got slaughtered.

 

do as you will, but PHL -6.5 is the right play as Philly bounces back against a Lions team that is a tad over-rated at this point, on the road, and playing a desperate team.

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If McNabb looks as "off" as he did Monday night, the Eagles might be in trouble. And his sad sack complaining doesn;t intill a lot of confidence in me. I'm not laying 6 1/2 on a guy in that frame of mind. I'll ride the with the guy that really HAS never had any respect, and is now demanding it with his play on the field. Kitna wants to win badly. McNabb wants to whine badly. My $$ is on Kitna.

Edited by rattsass
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When did McNabb whine? August 31st, when the interview was done? C'mon now, you're smarter than that!

 

FWI....Vegas Vic writes a column that is published each week around the country. It is posted every Friday in the Philly Daily News. 1st two games are 4-star, next two are 3-star, next 3 are 2-star.

 

Here are his picks this week:

 

Take time out for the 51 reasons to back the Raiders

by Vegas Vic

 

RAIDERS (-3) over Browns

Professor Vic here, class. Can you give me the definition of mirage? Yes, we know it's a hotel in my hometown, but that's not important now. If you checked the dictionary, you would find: "something illusory and unattainable." If you checked the Vic-tionary, you would find: "Cleveland's performance Sunday." The Browns had not scored 51 points since 1989, when Bud Carson took over as head coach and Bernie Kosar was flinging rockets to the great Ozzie Newsome. And the Brownies ain't gonna do it again anytime soon, certainly not this season, and certainly not in Oakland. The Silver & Black had a 23-20 win in their hip pocket after Sebastian Janikowski booted a 52-yard field goal in overtime, but the crafty Mike Shanahan had just called a timeout that negated the kick. Janikowski missed the next real attempt, and the Broncos won, 23-20. Chalk up a best bet for the boiling-mad Raiders.

 

CHIEFS (-3) over Vikings

 

A team that manages only 13 points and averages 250 yards in its first two games probably doesn't deserve to be a top-two selection, but this is the NFL and Sundays are always crazy. And as always, there are reasons. Kansas City star running back Larry Johnson gobbled up 1,789 yards and scored 19 TDs last season. This year, he's at 98 yards and zero TDs. You know that's gonna change real quick. Then you have the humongous homefield edge. QB Damon Huard is 6-0 with a 107.3 passer rating as a starter at Arrowhead, and the Chiefs have won an amazing 20 of their last 24 at home against the NFC. And now, the defense, which ranks eighth in the league in yards allowed per game, gets back pass-rush specialist Jared Allen. With a stout 31-9 record in Kaycee the last 5 years, the Chiefs will get on the board with their first W.

 

EAGLES (-6) over Lions

 

Read my lips: There's no stinkin' way the Eagles will be 0-3. No matter how unispiring they have looked, I keep coming back to this one particular nugget: Detroit is 11-46 on the road since 2000.

 

Colts (-6) over TEXANS

 

Here's another team that ain't gonna be 3-0. Granted, Houston has had a nice start, but beating Kansas City and Carolina really is not gonna impress anyone. To compound the Texans' problems, they will be without star WR Andre Johnson, probably the offense's most important weapon. After barely squeezing past the Titans Sunday, we expect Peyton Manning to lead Indy to an easy double-digit victory.

 

Titans (+4) over SAINTS

 

As we mentioned last week, Tennessee is a money machine. The Titans are 2-0 against the spread this season and have covered 13 of their last 16. This is also the first Monday-night appearance for the multitalented Vince Young, and while he might not have the same results as when his Longhorns beat Reggie Bush and Southern California for the national championship, another cover is only 60 minutes away.

 

Bengals (+3) over SEAHAWKS

 

Cincinnati and Carson Palmer can pile up points and yards like very few in the NFL, so now all the Bengals must do is tighten up their defense. Leave it to defensive guru Marvin Lewis to press the right buttons.

 

Bills (+16) over PATRIOTS

 

Just when things couldn't get any darker for Buffalo (0-2) - or brighter for New England (2-0) - we're picking the Bills. Why? Check out the scores at Foxboro the last 2 years: Pats by 19-17 last year and by 21-16 in 2005.

 

I also like:

 

Chargers (-5) over PACKERS

 

JETS (-3) over Dolphins

 

STEELERS (-9) over 49ers

 

Cardinals (+8) over RAVENS

 

Rams (+3) over BUCCANEERS

 

BRONCOS (-3) over Jaguars

 

Panthers (-3) over FALCONS

 

Giants (+3) over REDSKINS

 

BEARS (-3) over Cowboys

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This is what I see right off the bat:

 

Indianapolis (-5) at Houston (especially if A. Johnson is out)

San Diego (-4) at Green Bay

Buffalo at New England (-15.5)

 

Possibly San Fran at Pittsburgh (-9) as well given Pittsburgh's impressive home streak of giong over the line. I do like San Francisco this year, but Pittsburgh's recent record of beating the line at home is kind of hard to ignore.

 

I say this with respect, but it is likely every one of those plays loses this weekend. They are classic public plays... Also, the lines are actually INDI -6.5, SD - 5.5, and NE -16.5... You see those right off the bat, because vegas wants you to see that. Why do you think those lines are just below key numbers? To lure you in... Last week, the Indi line (-6.5 @ TEN) and the CIN line (-6.5 @ CLE) were the exact same thing... those were "obvious ones" too and they went 0-2

 

No offense, but cards like that are a bookie's dream... 3 popular NFL teams, 2 as road favorites.... proceed with caution...

 

Try these instead:

 

INDI/HOU under 47.5

BUF +17 (buy hook)

GB +6 (buy hook)

NYG/WASH over 41

OAK/CLE over 40.5

 

good luck man! :D

 

If you like college, take a look at

 

under in the OK game tonight (I got it at 68 yesterday) and

over in the ALA/GEO game (46.5)

 

:D

Edited by quinlan12
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Week 1

 

Anyway, Dre, any numbers for us regarding road favorites in Week 1? I love two of them this week (Philly and Pitt), though am a little unsure if I am going against the trend.

 

Week 2

 

FWIW, the Eagles -6.5 is the right play tonight. Philly looked bad last week, the Redskins won...time for the tables to be turned...Reid is a monster on Monday nights, and the Skins as a road dog are brutal.

 

Eagles 24, Redskins 10.

 

Week 3

 

regardless of Menudo's bias, that line is screaming to take the Lions. a 2-0 getting 6.5 against a 0-2 team? Vegas is trying hard for some reason to gneerate Detroit action, and by the tone of this board, they will be getting it.

 

very similar to last week's CHI/KC line...they were begging the betting public to take CHI -12 over a lousy KC team, and the public got slaughtered.

 

do as you will, but PHL -6.5 is the right play as Philly bounces back against a Lions team that is a tad over-rated at this point, on the road, and playing a desperate team.

 

:D 3 weeks in a row :D

Edited by Menudo
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I say this with respect, but it is likely every one of those plays loses this weekend. They are classic public plays... Also, the lines are actually INDI -6.5, SD - 5.5, and NE -16.5... You see those right off the bat, because vegas wants you to see that. Why do you think those lines are just below key numbers? To lure you in... Last week, the Indi line (-6.5 @ TEN) and the CIN line (-6.5 @ CLE) were the exact same thing... those were "obvious ones" too and they went 0-2

 

No offense, but cards like that are a bookie's dream... 3 popular NFL teams, 2 as road favorites.... proceed with caution...

 

Try these instead:

 

INDI/HOU under 47.5

BUF +17 (buy hook)

GB +6 (buy hook)

NYG/WASH over 41

OAK/CLE over 40.5

 

good luck man! :D

 

 

If you like college, take a look at

 

under in the OK game tonight (I got it at 68 yesterday) and

over in the ALA/GEO game (46.5)

 

:D

 

 

Those were not the numbers when I placed my bets on Tuesday morning, as previously stated. At the time I actually placed the bets, the lines were exactly as stated: Indy (-5), NE (-15.5), San Diego (-4). Since that time they have all risen to the numbers that you have (that is, I got them before they all inflated).

 

There's no exact science to picking anyways. Even the best better knows that you'll win some and you'll lose some. However I highly doubt that all of those games will be wrong as you stated. Hard to believe that the Pats won't continue steamrolling against the banged-up bills secondary, that San Diego and L.T. won't get it back together against Green Bay, and that Indy won't do well against an Andre Johnson-less Houston when they beat Tennessee on the road just this weekend. I'd be less surprised to see them all correct.

Edited by Crazysight
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