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Preliminary BCS Rankings 09/23/07


Rockerbraves
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Preliminary BCS Rankings - 09/23/07

 

Computers: Billngsley, Colley, Sagarin

 

rank team B C S Cmptrs H Pts Harris C Pts Coaches BCS

1 LSU 1 1 2 1.00 2742 0.9621 1438 0.9587 0.9736

2 USC 4 6 1 0.88 2821 0.9898 1481 0.9873 0.9524

3 Florida 3 2 5 0.92 2538 0.8905 1347 0.8980 0.9028

4 Oklahoma 7 12 3 0.76 2567 0.9007 1336 0.8907 0.8505

5 Ohio State 2 5 4 0.88 2101 0.7372 1092 0.7280 0.7817

6 Texas 13 7 6 0.76 2089 0.7330 1103 0.7353 0.7428

7 California 9 13 8 0.68 2213 0.7765 1137 0.7580 0.7382

8 West Virginia 5 17 13 0.52 2409 0.8453 1260 0.8400 0.7351

9 Wisconsin 6 9 10 0.68 1867 0.6551 1026 0.6840 0.6730

10 Boston College 8 10 11 0.64 1666 0.5846 0881 0.5873 0.6040

 

http://grjash.netfirms.com:80/bcs/bcs_rankings_092307.html

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Preliminary BCS Rankings - 09/23/07

 

Computers: Billngsley, Colley, Sagarin

 

rank team B C S Cmptrs H Pts Harris C Pts Coaches BCS

1 LSU 1 1 2 1.00 2742 0.9621 1438 0.9587 0.9736

2 USC 4 6 1 0.88 2821 0.9898 1481 0.9873 0.9524

3 Florida 3 2 5 0.92 2538 0.8905 1347 0.8980 0.9028

4 Oklahoma 7 12 3 0.76 2567 0.9007 1336 0.8907 0.8505

5 Ohio State 2 5 4 0.88 2101 0.7372 1092 0.7280 0.7817

6 Texas 13 7 6 0.76 2089 0.7330 1103 0.7353 0.7428

7 California 9 13 8 0.68 2213 0.7765 1137 0.7580 0.7382

8 West Virginia 5 17 13 0.52 2409 0.8453 1260 0.8400 0.7351

9 Wisconsin 6 9 10 0.68 1867 0.6551 1026 0.6840 0.6730

10 Boston College 8 10 11 0.64 1666 0.5846 0881 0.5873 0.6040

 

http://grjash.netfirms.com:80/bcs/bcs_rankings_092307.html

 

I'd say the Colley ranks are useless, with USC at #6 and OU at #12, respectively. Somewhere between Sagarin and Billingsley may be closer to the truth. Let's wait until the real BCS ranks come out, and we'l have something to discuss...

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I'd say the Colley ranks are useless, with USC at #6 and OU at #12, respectively. Somewhere between Sagarin and Billingsley may be closer to the truth. Let's wait until the real BCS ranks come out, and we'l have something to discuss...

Colley rankings are not totally useless. Arn't they used to help determne the BCS rankings? Think it's more of a mathematical approach. Looking back to last year's final rankings it had LSU 7th and USC 2nd so I agree it can't be perfect. I was wondering myself why Oklahoma wasn't ranked that high and I noticed they have yet to beat a top 25 team this season or all of last season.

 

Team/ rating/ record/ SOS: rank/ top 25 wins/top 50 wins/ best game

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1. LSU 0.882263 4-0 0.573395: 29 1 3 W: #25 VA TECH

2. FLORIDA 0.850882 4-0 0.526323: 55 0 1 W: #41 TENNESSEE

3. MISSOURI 0.843499 4-0 0.515248: 64 1 1 W: #18 ILLINOIS

4. OREGON 0.829812 4-0 0.494718: 74 0 1 W: #43 HOUSTON

5. OHIO STATE 0.815510 4-0 0.473266: 82 0 1 W: #46 WASHINGTON

6. SOUTHERN CAL 0.813654 3-0 0.522757: 56 1 1 W: #21 NEBRASKA

7. TEXAS 0.805133 4-0 0.457700: 88 0 1 W: #40 UCF

8. ARIZONA ST 0.797790 4-0 0.446685: 94 0 0 W: #64 OREGON ST

9. WISCONSIN 0.797165 4-0 0.445747: 95 0 0 W: #52 WASHINGTON ST

10. BOSTON COLLEGE 0.792700 4-0 0.439049: 98 0 0 W: #55 WAKE FOREST

11. MICHIGAN ST 0.790289 4-0 0.435434: 101 0 1 W: #47 BOWLING GREEN

12. OKLAHOMA 0.786329 4-0 0.429494: 105 0 2 W: #34 MIAMI FL

13. CALIFORNIA 0.776170 4-0 0.414256: 111 0 1 W: #41 TENNESSEE

14. PURDUE 0.766966 4-0 0.400448: 113 0 0 W: #74 I-AA

15. CLEMSON 0.760845 4-0 0.391268: 116 0 1 W: #36 FLORIDA ST

16. WEST VIRGINIA 0.758373 4-0 0.387560: 119 0 0 W: #73 MARYLAND

17. KENTUCKY 0.756586 4-0 0.384880: 122 0 0 W: #71 ARKANSAS

18. ILLINOIS 0.747991 3-1 0.621986: 8 0 2 W: #30 INDIANA

19. S FLORIDA 0.732018 3-0 0.386697: 120 0 1 W: #49 AUBURN

20. HAWAI`I 0.726221 4-0 0.339332: 127 0 0 W: #65 UNLV

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Interesting Rocker, but I personally discount anything that happened last year, since those were different teams with different home vs. away games. And the coaches and AP writers would appear to agree - same problem always with purely math used in the 'puters. Sooners are simply much better this year, for example.

 

So here's where the top 10 align in ESPN/Coaches, AP, Dodd (CBSSportsline) and my personal MJB Ranks:

T1. USC/LSU

T3. OK/FLA

5. WVU

T6. CAL/TX

T8. OSU/WISC

T10. BC/RUT/OR

(Yes, that is 12 teams, but its hard to separate BC, Rutgers and Oregon right now)

 

Everyone seems to agree that the drop off after the top 5 is dramatic, and we know that the top 10 can't all go undefeated either. So here are my guesses on the likely bowl matchups if the season ended today, with some obvious tie-breakers coming up by 12/1:

 

NC title: USC v. LSU (Sooners would be rightfully pissed, IMHO)

Sugar: FLA v. BC

Orange: TX v. WISC/OSU

Rose: CAL v. WISC/OSU

Fiesta: WVU v. OK

 

That would be 2 teams each for the SEC, B12, B10+1 & P10, plus 1 each for the ACC and BE. Potential reps/'wildcards' for the BE and ACC would be Rutgers/So. FLA and Clemson respectively. If CAL beats OR but loses to USC, they'd likely do their usual tailspin, miss the BCS and get blown out by a B12 team down in SD. Tedford has got to avoid that somehow...

 

Rutgers/So.FLA sneaking in as big underdogs would be fun for some new blood, ala Boise St. last year, but they are longshots for a reason. Potentially the most deserving #11 (aka 'on the outside, looking in'): Oregon at 10-2 (again!) or maybe even a surprising 11-1 Kentucky, plus the aforementioned Rut/SoFLA/Clemson if they finish 11-1.

 

Of course its way too early; but still fun, I guess.....

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Everyone knows we beat #18 Oregon...regardless of the scoreboard. But we also beat #23 Missouri and #21 A&M...both away games.

 

Keep in mind this is a mathematical approach, so they have to use the official results not what might have been. Although I'll agree the officials help alot in that one. Also when I said the Sooners have not beat a top 25 team in a year and a half that's using the last Colley rankings for that year not when they played. From what I see in the last week of the Colley rankings they had A&M ranked #30 and Missouri at #43.

 

However you might have a point because if you go to this link. They show A&M with an 8-4 record? Thought they played in bowl. :D

 

http://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2006/rank16.html

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That matrix makes my head hurt. I've never seen that site before, but it completely discredits itself by ranking Texas over Oklahoma. Yes, Texas beat TCU...but then TCU goes on to get beat by Air Force. And Texas damn near lost (should have lost) 2 games to unranked teams. Maybe OU is overrated...we won't know until they play Texas. But based off what I've seen, I don't see how any computer program worth its salt can rank them ahead of OU.

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Interesting Rocker, but I personally discount anything that happened last year, since those were different teams with different home vs. away games. And the coaches and AP writers would appear to agree - same problem always with purely math used in the 'puters. Sooners are simply much better this year,

 

Without deliberately ticking off any Sooner fans, you say Oklahoma is better this year, but are they? We've seen this same kind of bully approach by the Sooners year after year. Oklahoma totally destroys their weak opponents yet according to the Colley rankings (which does not take into account margin of victory) the Sooners haven't beaten a top 25 team in over a year and a half. And in that same period they have only beaten 6 top 50 teams. Sorry, this year's Oklahoma team may be different or better as you say, but I'll wait and see before getting fooled once again.

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However you might have a point because if you go to this link. They show A&M with an 8-4 record? Thought they played in bowl. :D

 

http://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2006/rank16.html

 

This might explain why some teams record (A&M) seems to be missing a game.

 

Strength of schedule has a strong influence on the final ranking. Padding the schedule wins you very little. Furthermore, only D-IA opponents count in the ranking, so those wins against James Madison or William & Mary don't mean anything.

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I really can't disagree with anything on here. Our Sooners have burned us recently so there's always that thought in the back of your head. The Texas game will be a huge game...as always. I think OU wins that game 9 out of 10 times...if not more. But when you're dealing with kids in their late teens and early 20s, anything can happen. It will be a very stressful environment for a freshman QB. We'll see how Bradford does.

 

I don't put a lot of stock in the Colley Rankings. I think one of the most important predictors is the margin of victory...which they eliminate. I do realize that scoring 100 against Ball St. is not the same as scoring 100 against LSU. But it's an important predictor nontheless. OU will be penalized for the Big 12 being weak. They may win out and still not get into the NC. But in college football there's not a huge difference between the number 10 team and the number 30 team. And if a #10 team is blowing out top 50 teams by 6 and 7 touchdowns, that should be factored into the ranking system. At least in my opinion it should. What shouldn't matter is the prior season. Case in point Notre Dame.

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Without deliberately ticking off any Sooner fans, you say Oklahoma is better this year, but are they? We've seen this same kind of bully approach by the Sooners year after year. Oklahoma totally destroys their weak opponents yet according to the Colley rankings (which does not take into account margin of victory) the Sooners haven't beaten a top 25 team in over a year and a half. And in that same period they have only beaten 6 top 50 teams. Sorry, this year's Oklahoma team may be different or better as you say, but I'll wait and see before getting fooled once again.

 

 

You could say the same thing about LSU. Are they really better this year? Defense looks to be better, but still haven't played an offense with a pulse yet. And last year all we know is they could beat Notre Dame at home, and lose to Auburn and Florida on the road. The rest of there schedule was cupcakes other than playing an overrated Arkansas team which got beat by Wisconsin anyway. Do we REALLY know about LSU yet?

Edited by GWPFFL BrianW
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I really can't disagree with anything on here. Our Sooners have burned us recently so there's always that thought in the back of your head. The Texas game will be a huge game...as always. I think OU wins that game 9 out of 10 times...if not more. But when you're dealing with kids in their late teens and early 20s, anything can happen. It will be a very stressful environment for a freshman QB. We'll see how Bradford does.

 

I don't put a lot of stock in the Colley Rankings. I think one of the most important predictors is the margin of victory...which they eliminate. I do realize that scoring 100 against Ball St. is not the same as scoring 100 against LSU. But it's an important predictor nontheless. OU will be penalized for the Big 12 being weak. They may win out and still not get into the NC. But in college football there's not a huge difference between the number 10 team and the number 30 team. And if a #10 team is blowing out top 50 teams by 6 and 7 touchdowns, that should be factored into the ranking system. At least in my opinion it should. What shouldn't matter is the prior season. Case in point Notre Dame.

 

It's nice to meet a level headed Sooner fan. I'm not saying the Colley ranking system is perfect or even better than the AP or coaches poll. Just found it interesting to see how a ranking system with no human bias isn't that far off from the other human polls especially at season's end.

 

If it makes you feel any better, besides not taking into account "margin of victory" the Colley rankings also do not take into consideration last year's performance either which we both should agree the two main polls do. In the Colley rankings every team starts off even and hence teams such as Missouri being ranked so high this early in the season. Thus a team's SOS or lack thereof is indeed an important factor in this ranking system.. So you're correct in regard to Oklahoma playing in the Big 12 can potenially hurt the Sooners chances of gaining a higher ranking if the other Big 12 teams lose out of conference. But the same can be said about teams like the Boise, Rutgers and Hawaii type teams. At least in this ranking the prejudices are supposely free of human bias.

Edited by Rockerbraves
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You could say the same thing about LSU. Are they really better this year? Defense looks to be better, but still haven't played an offense with a pulse yet. And last year all we know is they could beat Notre Dame at home, and lose to Auburn and Florida on the road. The rest of there schedule was cupcakes other than playing an overrated Arkansas team which got beat by Wisconsin anyway. Do we REALLY know about LSU yet?

 

I never said they were better this year. Last year IMO they were the best team in the nation at year end and stomping ND in the Sugar Bowl doesn't disprove that.

Edited by Rockerbraves
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LSU is the college version of the Chicago Bears. Dominate on defense with a lead, will be exposed when they dont have one, vs a real team.

 

And Im not sure UF is that much better. Their D is average, and their O is green. Yet they too are ranked in the top 4. This yr there are 2 teams that are dominant on both sides of the ball, and I hope to see a better rematch of that game for the NC in January.

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Without deliberately ticking off any Sooner fans, you say Oklahoma is better this year, but are they? We've seen this same kind of bully approach by the Sooners year after year. Oklahoma totally destroys their weak opponents yet according to the Colley rankings (which does not take into account margin of victory) the Sooners haven't beaten a top 25 team in over a year and a half. And in that same period they have only beaten 6 top 50 teams. Sorry, this year's Oklahoma team may be different or better as you say, but I'll wait and see before getting fooled once again.

 

Coffeeman thought this Colley system might be worth exploring again. The Sooners arn't even in the top 25 this week. Don't you think with Oklahoma's remaining SOS that it will be nearly impossible for them to climb up the BCS standings this season?

 

http://www.colleyrankings.com/

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Too bad the 2nd best team in each conference has to take a beating after losing the rivalry game. Either FLA or LSU, USC or Cal and OSU or WISC will eventually have to drop out of top 5-10, and therefore at a disadvantage when the BCS poll rolls out. That opens the door for a sneaky unbeaten like SoFLA or BC to not only get a BCS game, but maybe even a shot at the NC game.

 

Interesting to see what happens, but I'm just enjoying the great games like Cal v. OR. Hopefully the LSU v. FLA tilt will live up to the hype....

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Wisconsin #2? I don't think so. I don't say there as bad as wildcat says they are, but they are not #2.

 

 

I go by what I see- I watch alot of college football- I would honestly put that team somewhere in the 20-25 range.

 

A long list of teams that are better than the Badgers-

 

I fully expect them to come back to earth with Ill, PState, OSU and Mich coming up. I predict they lose 3 of those 4. We shall see

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