Kicker projections - logic check

[doctor_stoppage]

Hi,

 

This is my first year on a subscription based FF site, so I apologize if this is something I should already know, or this post is in the wrong forum, etc.

 

Are kicker projections more or less accurate than other position projections? It seems to me that projecting how a kicker is going to do is really more a matter of deciding how a whole game is going to go. On the order of "this is a decent O against a strong D, I feel there will be many field goal opportunities in this game".

 

I guess I'm going through what most would go through on a new site - how much can I trust the predictions overall? I've done OK so far with Huddle advice, about 50-50. Example: Nick Folk was a good pickup. Getting and starting Daniel Owens over my regular tight end was a push. Starting Randle El over Roy Williams this last week was a huge mistake and cost me 20+ points and the game. And so on. Like I said, middlin' success.

 

But I wonder how far I should go with this weeks kicker advice. Out of seemingly nowhere, Jason Elam is the lowest ranked kicker this week. Projected at 2 points! So-so kicker Nate Keading is ranked 4th with 10 points. Is that mostly a matter of someone prognosticating that DEN will score exactly 2 TDs and no field goals against Indy for some reason?

 

I know this is a wide topic, but I want to know;

 

Site operators - can you give some insight as to how the weekly rankings are decided upon? Is it one author or a group consensus? Anything else you can share? Do you track accuracy in any way?

 

Site Members - how do you handle the projections? Do you go well out of your way to implement Huddle advice verbatim, or... not so much? What is the most valuable site resource for you?

 

Thanks!

 

Doug

[The Irish Doggy]

Its best not to put too much thought into kickers. It will just make you nuts.

[Easy n Dirty]

It is also best to never bench Roy Williams for Antwan Randle El.

[MikesVikes]

Ride the kicker wave while they're scoring points.

 

Btw, yes the projections for kickers could be off. Three point swings could be 30-50% of their scoring for the week.

 

 

You don't want a kicker from a team that will punt 167 times every week.

You don't want a kicker from a team that will fall behind because nobody is going to kick a field goal when they're down by 30.

[Mojo Rising]

There is one little trick that has come in handy for me regarding kickers

 

For example if your playing against a team that has three players from the same team (i.e. NYG - eli, ward and plax) or a player you know will be scoring 40+, I usually pickup that team's kicker.....the way I see it, everytime they score a TD, I get a free point from the XP. If they dont score, they might get a bunch of yardage points, but I get 3 pts from the FG.

 

Just a little trick Ive been using that, believe it or not, has pulled some winners for me.......its all about matchups.....and no reason you cant use your kicker to help you......

 

Again this doesn't work every time and shouldn't be used all the time........when the time is right.....you'll know.

[DMD]

While I project kickers, I did not for many years to start because by theri very nature kickers are always going to be very hard to predict. Generally speaking, the higher score of the game, the better a kicker will do but not always since the kicker in a 28-0 blowout is worth less than one whose team lost 47-6. And in the end, most fantasy kickers tend to have only minor differences between themselves and roughly will get around 6 or 7 points per week. My projections are a product of what I expect the total score to be like in the match-up.

 

I typically only carry one kicker on my fantasy teams because trying to play match-ups with two kickers just is optimistic.

[Big Country]

There is one little trick that has come in handy for me regarding kickers

 

For example if your playing against a team that has three players from the same team (i.e. NYG - eli, ward and plax) or a player you know will be scoring 40+, I usually pickup that team's kicker.....the way I see it, everytime they score a TD, I get a free point from the XP. If they dont score, they might get a bunch of yardage points, but I get 3 pts from the FG.

 

Just a little trick Ive been using that, believe it or not, has pulled some winners for me.......its all about matchups.....and no reason you cant use your kicker to help you......

 

Again this doesn't work every time and shouldn't be used all the time........when the time is right.....you'll know.

 

This is just flawed strategy, much like starting a WR because your opponent has his QB. You start the player you think will score the most points. Your opponents lineup is completely, totally, 100% irrelevent to your fantasy starting lineup decisions. Now, if you seriously believe that the kicker for the team that your opponent has 3 players from will outscore your kicker and you wan to make a move for him, that is one thing, but to make the decision simply because your opponent has players on that team is extremely flawed thinking.

[MikesVikes]

I picked up Folk because I think the team will score plenty of points. I have Romo and Barber and if they miss out on a drive, then I won't be throwing any bricks at the TV if I'm getting 3 points at least.

 

The bye weeks are hitting now, and I saw a good kicker available that I can live with for the rest of the year, so now I don't have to drop Elam for a Matt Bryant type of kicker.

[doctor_stoppage]

It is also best to never bench Roy Williams for Antwan Randle El.

 

Ah, but that is part of my general question about Projections for you other members.

 

Are you saying that you follow the Projection advice, but only when it's kind of conservative, sort of what you were thinking anyway, and you pass on the more risky advice?

 

Week 3, when I benched Roy Williams for Randle El, it was 100% because "the projections said so".

 

Randle El = #10 WR listed, 15 points.

Roy Williams = #40 WR listed, at 7 points.

 

Now, I like to win, and 15 seemed like a bigger number than 7. And the Giants pass D was supposed to be highly suspect. So I went for it, and got slammed.

 

When do you follow the Projection advice, and when do you not? Look, I know the final decision is always up to me, and ya have to take projections for what they are - informed guesses - but I'm just trying to get a feel for what other people do.

 

Thanks!

[Gdawg]

A lot of good stuff here. Of course (as stated) can't go wrong with drafting a kicker for a high scoring offense!

 

If you can't get one of those guys, go for a kicker who's team can move the ball but often stalls in the red zone...I have Stover in three leagues.

 

Good luck and welcome to the Huddle

[Rileyrott]

And then there's the strategy of playing your kicker on his bye week, if your league allows it. I did this 2 years ago when Neil Rackers (AZ) was hot and I didn't want to give him up, or drop another player to pick-up a 2nd kicker (tough bye week). Sometimes the points you lose (as mentioned above, average 6-7 per week, depending on league scoring), is not enough to make a difference. Just my $0.02.

[Furd]

Its best not to put too much thought into kickers. It will just make you nuts.

 

+1

 

 

It is also best to never bench Roy Williams for Antwan Randle El.

 

+1

 

This is just flawed strategy, much like starting a WR because your opponent has his QB. You start the player you think will score the most points. Your opponents lineup is completely, totally, 100% irrelevent to your fantasy starting lineup decisions. Now, if you seriously believe that the kicker for the team that your opponent has 3 players from will outscore your kicker and you wan to make a move for him, that is one thing, but to make the decision simply because your opponent has players on that team is extremely flawed thinking.

 

+1

[Furd]

Week 3, when I benched Roy Williams for Randle El, it was 100% because "the projections said so".

 

I don't care who said what - you don't bench Williams for Randle El.

[doctor_stoppage]

While I project kickers, I did not for many years to start because by theri very nature kickers are always going to be very hard to predict. Generally speaking, the higher score of the game, the better a kicker will do but not always since the kicker in a 28-0 blowout is worth less than one whose team lost 47-6. And in the end, most fantasy kickers tend to have only minor differences between themselves and roughly will get around 6 or 7 points per week. My projections are a product of what I expect the total score to be like in the match-up.

 

I typically only carry one kicker on my fantasy teams because trying to play match-ups with two kickers just is optimistic.

 

Thanks DMD, that helps a lot.

 

If I may ask another question - does that logic apply to Defenses as well, and is that why there are no full weekly Defense Projections?

 

What I mean is, I can and do read that Defense article that comes out every Thursday, but it's not as helpful to me as a complete list would be. That is because I tend to not draft myself an uber-D. Instead, I play the matchups weekly. Last year I ended up winning my league by always taking the D that the Texans were playing against in the final quarter of the season.

 

So instead of a short list of the top defenses for the week, it'd be much more helpful if I could get an "official" opinion on which average D's are going to have above average games, but make it complete.

 

For example, this weeks Team Defense Rankings mentions Tampa as an Average Start. OK. But are they more or less average this week than say, the Panthers? I don't know because Carolina isn't mentioned anywhere.

 

Anyway! Sorry for the long-winded explanation. My real question here is: Are Defenses just as unpredictable as Kickers, and is that why we don't see hard rankings every week?

 

Thanks for the patience all, and thanks for the welcome!

[Furd]

As far as PKs go, unless your league rules say that you must carry two, it's a waste of a roster spot to do so.

 

If you have two, and you don't have a guy like Stover or Elam, you pretty much just pick the PK for the team that you think is going to score the most points.

 

BTW- In the 6+ years that I've been at the Huddle, I've not once looked at a PK projection.

[cre8tiff]

Ah, but that is part of my general question about Projections for you other members.

 

Are you saying that you follow the Projection advice, but only when it's kind of conservative, sort of what you were thinking anyway, and you pass on the more risky advice?

 

Week 3, when I benched Roy Williams for Randle El, it was 100% because "the projections said so".

 

When do you follow the Projection advice, and when do you not? Look, I know the final decision is always up to me, and ya have to take projections for what they are - informed guesses - but I'm just trying to get a feel for what other people do.

 

Firstof all, kudos for landing on the best pay FF site out there. A lot of people get burned by the rabble before hitting the quality that is here.

 

Secondly, yes, all of it is an informed guess. No Kreskins here. The information you get here is a TOOL, and shouldn't be blindly followed. Expecting a "magic bullet" in the projections is going to leave you unhappy most of the time. Why? Well, there are scores of players to guess at. And even if DMD or WW are accurate with say 85% of them (which is a huge number), that still leaves 15%. And any one of those may be on your team.

 

So, yes, look at the projections, ask questions on the boards, and read many other sites, posts and papers. THe more information you get, the more success you can have.

 

Oh, and Always Start Your Studs.

[doctor_stoppage]

Firstof all, kudos for landing on the best pay FF site out there. A lot of people get burned by the rabble before hitting the quality that is here.

 

I read "Committed" by Mark St. Amant last December, and have been waiting for the season to start so I could sign on here ever since. Thanks go to Mark for the tip on that one.

[Big Country]

I read "Committed" by Mark St. Amant last December, and have been waiting for the season to start so I could sign on here ever since. Thanks go to Mark for the tip on that one.

 

You shouldn't have mentioned that. Now DMD will have to add $1.50 to msaints commission check.

 

 

And, regarding your question regarding the projections, no, don't blindly follow them, use them as one of several tools you use to make your decisions.

 

IMO, I look at the projections as the target that a player is likely to hit based on DMDs thorough statistical analysis and vast knowledge of the sport. I use the start/bench list as a gauge of how likely a player is or is not to hit that projection. People often ask how can XYZ player be projected for 80 yards and a score but only be an average play on the start/bench list... well, IMO, the projections are what the player should do based on past performance, how the teams are doing lately, etc., and the start/bench list is kind of a confidence factor. Also bear in mind that each are compiled separately by different people, so there is, and should be varying opinions on the players within those tools.

 

If, after looking at those tools you are still unsure, put a well thought out, articulated post in the advice forum detailing the decision you are faced with (which players, scoring system, etc.) and also include your thoughts on the decision illustrating why you are having a tough decision. Often in that forum people post two or three names and say choose one with no details. Every answer they receive is meaningless as they are based on very incomplete information. For me personally, I will answer a large majority of the posts in the preseason, but I will ignore a large majority of them (as do a very large number of the most knowledgable members here) during the season because people do not put the little amount of time into putting the necessary details to make a rational decision, and it becomes tiresome to wade through posts full of nothing. :getsoffsoapboxregardingadviceforum:

 

In other words, you gotta make use of all the tools that are available to you here. The amount of knowledge that is available here at your fingertips is vast. The access to homers with the local info on every team in the league is invaluable.

Edited September 27, 2007 by Big Country

[Yukon Cornelius]

I read "Committed" by Mark St. Amant last December, and have been waiting for the season to start so I could sign on here ever since. Thanks go to Mark for the tip on that one.

msaint is a turd

[cre8tiff]

I read "Committed" by Mark St. Amant last December, and have been waiting for the season to start so I could sign on here ever since. Thanks go to Mark for the tip on that one.

 

shhh. If you encourage msaint, well....

 

Let me put it this way, ever seen Fatal Attraction?

[The Irish Doggy]

msaint is a turd

 

 

don't make his sick Radio on you.

[Roustabout]

This is just flawed strategy, much like starting a WR because your opponent has his QB. You start the player you think will score the most points. Your opponents lineup is completely, totally, 100% irrelevent to your fantasy starting lineup decisions. Now, if you seriously believe that the kicker for the team that your opponent has 3 players from will outscore your kicker and you wan to make a move for him, that is one thing, but to make the decision simply because your opponent has players on that team is extremely flawed thinking.

 

It's flawed if you know which kicker or wide receiver is going to score more points. Not so flawed if you don't, which is usually the case. I think this can an effective neutralizing strategy. If xyz has a big game, than I also get a little bit of the action.

[Big Country]

It's flawed if you know which kicker or wide receiver is going to score more points. Not so flawed if you don't, which is usually the case. I think this can an effective neutralizing strategy. If xyz has a big game, than I also get a little bit of the action.

 

Your goal is to score the most points possible. If you have exhausted every conceivable legitimate facotr to consider - performance history, matchup, weather, injuries, etc., every single piece of information and factor that has actual bearing on player performance and you still decide that the two players are likely to have the exact same level of performance with the same confidence level in your prediction, then you can use that as a tiebreaker. Granted, it is as meaningful as flipping a coin, but if it gives you a measure of comfort, then so be it.

[Mojo Rising]

This is just flawed strategy, much like starting a WR because your opponent has his QB. You start the player you think will score the most points. Your opponents lineup is completely, totally, 100% irrelevent to your fantasy starting lineup decisions. Now, if you seriously believe that the kicker for the team that your opponent has 3 players from will outscore your kicker and you wan to make a move for him, that is one thing, but to make the decision simply because your opponent has players on that team is extremely flawed thinking.

 

Big Country....this strategy has worked for me and to tell you the truth kickers are so unpredictable that any strategy is a good one.......

[Big Country]

Big Country....this strategy has worked for me and to tell you the truth kickers are so unpredictable that any strategy is a good one.......

 

Then it is no more a strategy than throwing darts at names or flipping coins, if you truly believe kickers are so totally unpredictable.

 

I believe there are many situational elements and team matchup elements that can go in to making a rational, thought out prediction of a kicker's performance for a particular week that irrelevant factors such as my opponents lineup, or the above mentioned dart throwing or coin flipping should not have a bearing on my decision.