Week 5 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

My personal (posted) plays this year:

 

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 4-0

Week 4: 3-1

 

Overall: 14-2

(Including leans and not played: 17-3)

 

My system didn't do as well overall in week 4 as week 3. However, my main ATS is still 5-1 since I started (week 3), and my O/U systems are still in the + money, although I have only played one pick thus far out of my personal selections.

 

Once I run the system, I'll let you know of leans or plays. Hope everyone keeps making money this week.

[Crazysight]

Wasn't liking the looks of the choices too much this week, but I decided to go with Green Bay (-3.5) at home against Chicago as my "Pick of the week." Other ones I considered were Tennessee (-8.5) at home against Atlanta, and Pittsburgh (-6) playing Seattle, taking into consideration Pittsburgh's impressive record of covering the spread at home.

Edited October 3, 2007 by Crazysight

[Steeltown Dre]

Wasn't liking the looks of the choices too much this week, but I decided to go with Green Bay (-3.5) at home against Chicago as my "Pick of the week." Other ones I considered were Tennessee (-8.5) at home against Atlanta, and Pittsburgh (-6) playing Seattle, taking into consideration Pittsburgh's impressive record of covering the spread at home.

 

You come up w/ your plays pretty early. Right now for that GB/Chi game, 84% of the early plays are coming in on GB ATS, but 58% are on Chi ML. The line opened at -3.5 but you can get it at -3 at many places.

 

Just as an FYI (I want to write a complete article on this but time is not available to me right now to do so):

 

There have been 320 games since 1989 where the opening line was -3.5. Of those games, the favorite won by only 3 points 37 times. That is roughly 12% of the time. You have to look at the juice required to buy down to that number vs. the chance of it hitting.

 

For instance, and ease of math, say you wanted to win $100 on the game. At -3.5 the juice may be -110. But to buy to -3, you are now paying -135. So to win $100, you would be fronting $25 more on your bet. Now, the chances of your loss w/o buying to -3 are 12%.

 

So lets say you made 100 bets and you hit 60% of them. That gives you 60 wins and 40 losses. But, by laying -110 at -3.5 and lost 12% of your wins, which we'll round to 7 losses. So overall, you won 53 games and lost 47. Which means you won $100*53 - $110*47 = net of $130.

 

Take it the other way. Say you bought to -135 in all of them. You still have that 60% win ratio, but you aren't losing 12% of those wins due to the bought point. So you have won 60 games and lost 40. Which means you won $100*60 - $135*40 = net of $600.

 

So in this example, it is slightly more profitable to buy the half point even if it means paying $25 more in juice, as 12% is a significant number.

 

Compare that to buying down from -7.5 to -7. According to my database, there have been 128 games since 1989 that opened w/ a -7.5 point favorite. That team won by only 7 points in 7 of those 128 games. Which is 5% of the time.

 

Much lower than 12%. So as you can imagine, depending on the juice, it is much more likely that you should not buy down to -7 in that case. I can do favs and dogs at various key numbers, but not tonight....

[rattsass]

Those are some great stats as always. I agree on that game, the Pack should cover easy, but I wouldn't want to leave that hook lying out there. 12%, that is pretty strong. I want GB at -3. Keep em comin' Dre!

[Crazysight]

Without a doubt I would much rather have it at -3, but I can only choose from what my sportsbook gives me. I'm only using the one. I might have benefited from waiting to see if the line would drop though.

 

Did I mention that I'm only playing with my winnings?

Edited October 4, 2007 by Crazysight

[Gdawg]

Did I mention that I'm only playing with my winnings?

 

[Menudo]

Am I the only one that sees the Arizona (-3.5) jumping out at them. The Rams are in all kinds of trouble...........

 

Is there a reason I shouldn't be jumping all over that game ?

[wildcat2334]

great work Dre- will be looking for yer picks for the weekend......

 

I am curious on any stats/trends you can dig out on home dogs.........after the huge number of home dogs - that ended up covering nicely, curious on the numbers.

 

 

they seem shaky this weelk with KC, STL, SF, Buff , with only KC looking like a possible play IMO

[Gdawg]

Am I the only one that sees the Arizona (-3.5) jumping out at them. The Rams are in all kinds of trouble...........

 

Is there a reason I shouldn't be jumping all over that game ?

 

Haven't dug into it yet, but at the surface it does look tempting, I'd go without the hook though...

[STL Fan]

Am I the only one that sees the Arizona (-3.5) jumping out at them. The Rams are in all kinds of trouble...........

 

Is there a reason I shouldn't be jumping all over that game ?

 

Menudo, you stole my thunder. I was going to compare this line with the NE line last week that was way off early in the week, moved a lot and they still covered easily. I got AZ at -3 yesterday, and love it.

 

Gus is starting at QB, Leonard at RB, the line is still decimated, and the defense can't really stop anyone. Edge is going to go off, and don't forget that if Warner gets in the game, he has a huge history in that building.

 

I guess Dre' can fill in all the technical ATS stuff that I love reading, but as for this amateur, I'm playing AZ.

[Crazysight]

Am I the only one that sees the Arizona (-3.5) jumping out at them. The Rams are in all kinds of trouble...........

 

Is there a reason I shouldn't be jumping all over that game ?

 

 

You know what...I somehow totally missed that game. I like the look of that one, maybe even better than the one I went with.

Oh well...I have to go with what I've already picked.

[Steeltown Dre]

Teams that are undefeated ATS:

 

Team ATS W/L

Dallas 4-0-0 4-0-0

Green Bay 4-0-0 4-0-0

New England 4-0-0 4-0-0

Arizona 4-0-0 2-2-0

Tennessee 3-0-0 2-1-0

 

Teams that are winless ATS:

 

Team ATS W/L

Miami 0-2-2 0-4-0

Baltimore 0-4-0 2-2-0

Denver 0-4-0 2-2-0

Chicago 0-4-0 1-3-0

New Orleans 0-3-0 0-3-0

St. Louis 0-4-0 0-4-0

 

Now, I did some checking on teams who are undefeated SU thru 4 weeks. We have 4 playing this week: Dal, GB, NE and Indy. All are favored. Since 1989, NFL teams undefeated thru 4 weeks and favored in week 5 have gone 181-167-10 ATS (52%). Take it a step further...

 

Undefeated teams who are also undefeated ATS and favored in week 5. This week we have 3 playing: Dal, GB, NE. This is HIGHLY UNUSUAL. I say this because look at the 358 teams that started 4-0 in the NFL since 1989. Only 10 of those teams were also undefeated ATS. Oddly enough, when those 10 teams played their week 5 games, 4 were underdogs. (1 out of those 4 teams covered the spread, the other 3 lost ATS and outright in week 5. But we don't have any dogs this week, only favs). So we have 6 teams that were favored in week 5 and undefeated ATS and SU thru 4 weeks.

 

Now, how many times out of those 6 was that 4-0 team (SU and ATS) upset and lost the game SU? 2 out of 4. So they ended up winning 4 out of the 6 games. But how many times did they cover the spread? Only once, in 2003 when 4-0 MIN went to 1-3 ATL as a 4.5 point favorite, and won the game by 13 points.

 

So a couple of things to take from this:

 

#1 - it is extremely rare that we would still have 4 teams undefeated ATS and SU in week 5. We know good teams can be undefeated SU. Happens every year. But to also be undefeated ATS shows that these teams really are better than what the linesmakers can get for them. Look at NE. They were 6 point favs in NYJ, 3.5 point favs to SD, 16.5 point favs to Buf, and 7.5 point favs to Cin. In all games, their margain of victory was 25 points. Dallas is another team putting up some big points, but at the same time, playing some anemic offenses. They have had a 20 point margain of victory against NYG, MIA, CHI, STL. How are Dal and NE similar? Top 2 ppg in the league, top to margain of victory. GB is a team unlike the prior 2. They have been dogs in 3 of their 4 games, and were only 1 or 2 point favs to Min last week. They have been the ones suprising teams (and the public), much like Ten did last year.

 

#2 - Chances of them covering yet again as DD favs are rare, but could happen. However, since the sample set of data is so small, it's not something I'm completely comfortable w/ siding w/ the DD favs. You also won't catch me playing many DD favs in my life, as I would rather look to another game to find some value in a solid dog.

 

Looking at winless teams ATS thru 4 weeks:

 

Miami 0-2-2 0-4-0

Baltimore 0-4-0 2-2-0

Denver 0-4-0 2-2-0

Chicago 0-4-0 1-3-0

New Orleans 0-3-0 0-3-0

St. Louis 0-4-0 0-4-0

 

 

There have only been 15 times that teams started the season 0-4 ATS since 1989. Another EXTREMELY SMALL sample set. And this week we have 4 of them playing: STL, BAL, DEN, CHI.

 

Unfortunately for gamblers, no real strong trends for their week 5 games, perhaps because the sample set is so small. Overall these teams went 6-8-1 ATS in week 5. If they were favored in week 5, like BAL and DEN are, they went 2-2-1 ATS. If they are dogs like STL and CHI are, they went 4-6.

 

I guess the bottom line is it is very rare that you will see such a large number of undefeated or winless teams ATS remaining in week 5. Teams like StL and NO and CHI have just been downright bad. Teams like GB, DAL, and NE have been tremendous. Do you ride the streak? Do you fade away, thinking the trend will be broken?

 

Personally, based on the trends and low historical occurence, I think you have to cap the game like you normally would. My formula factors in ATS records anyhow, so I have it covered, and I don't put more or less weight on it at any point in the season. I do look harder at teams who are "undervalued", and GB has been one of them. l also look at teams who are "overvalued" and Chi has been one of them. These 2 teams meet on Sunday.

 

I'm posting this for your info - I'll be posting my plays later this weekend. Good luck in your selections and share feedback and info.

[Menudo]

I'll be honest. I'm new to gambling on games, but, I initially think I know enough to pick the right games, and have kind of gone on my own and against the popular picks on these threads.

 

I've now realized that you can't argue with success. It's all about making money. I'm going to check my ego at the door, and I anxiously await Ratsass & Dre's picks for this week, so that I can piggyback some wins. You can't argue with the record of success.

 

Now, tell me where I make my money........

[WildTurkeyFueld]

here's my parlay for the week:

 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Over 36

 

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tennessee Titans Over 40½

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -6

 

Cleveland Browns +17 (more worried about this one than any of the others)

 

Arizona Cardinals -3½

 

Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams Over 40½

 

Green Bay Packers -3½

 

later

[Mojo Rising]

here's my parlay for the week:

 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Over 36

 

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tennessee Titans Over 40½

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -6

 

Cleveland Browns +17 (more worried about this one than any of the others)

 

Arizona Cardinals -3½

 

Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams Over 40½

 

Green Bay Packers -3½

 

later

 

I would be careful with that Jags/Chiefs over 36, it might seem low but don't be fooled and I actually like your browns +17. Your best bet is the cards -3.5 IMO.

[Gdawg]

I would be careful with that Jags/Chiefs over 36, it might seem low but don't be fooled and I actually like your browns +17. Your best bet is the cards -3.5 IMO.

 

Giving the Browns +17 serious consideration. Could the Pats be looking forward to next week? Probably not knowing Coach B...

 

Like ARZ

[i_am_the_swammi]

Careful on the ARZ game this week...everyone is on-board with the Cardinals.

 

After the emotional win last week over Wisenhauts former team, look for a let-down, and against a team like the Rams in must-win mode at home, this game could be much closer than people think.

 

When everyone likes one side, it is often prudent to go the other way.....come game time, this line will likely be north of -4.

 

If you really like it, play it now, and buy the hook to -3.

Edited October 5, 2007 by i_am_the_swammi

[Mojo Rising]

Careful on the ARZ game this week...everyone is on-board with the Cardinals.

 

After the emotional win last week over Wisenhauts former team, look for a let-down, and against a team like the Rams in must-win mode at home, this game could be much closer than people think.

 

When everyone likes one side, it is often prudent to go the other way.....come game time, this line will likely be north of -4.

 

Yea I totally agree with you, but its just so hard to think the Rams can compete and stay in this game. I would either take Arizona or not take anybody at all. IMO it would be risking tooo much taking the Rams.

 

At the same time, I know the Cards cant be compared to the Patriots, but last week we saw a surge of people taking NE to the point the line moved close to 3 pts! (and they covered).

[STL Fan]

Careful on the ARZ game this week...everyone is on-board with the Cardinals.

 

After the emotional win last week over Wisenhauts former team, look for a let-down, and against a team like the Rams in must-win mode at home, this game could be much closer than people think.

 

When everyone likes one side, it is often prudent to go the other way.....come game time, this line will likely be north of -4.

 

If you really like it, play it now, and buy the hook to -3.

 

Locally, the Rams are considered to be not in "must-win" mode (let's face it, it's over for this year) but in "already-quit" mode. And with six positions on the offense manned by fill-ins, it doesn't look good. And when it comes to MOJO, Kurt Warner has it in that building. He'll get one of the biggest rounds of applause on Sunday. Edge is going to go off.

 

As you said, anything can happen, and Gus may spark something. Hell the Rams may win outright. But you could also have said that about any of their other 4 games this year and it didn't happen.

 

One guy's opinion. And I expect that line to be WAY north of 4 come Sunday.

[Steeltown Dre]

A few notes regarding bye weeks:

 

Teams heading into a Bye week next week since 2002 (realignment) vs what that type of team (Home/Road Fav/Dog) would normally win:

 

Home Favs went 28-26 vs. 49% usually

Road Favs went 10-9 vs. 47% usually

Home Dogs went 13-19-2 (41%) vs. 53% usually

Road Dogs went 37-22-1 (63%) vs. 51% usually

 

Teams coming off a Bye week since 2002:

 

Home Favs went 38-23 (62%) vs. 49% usually

Road Favs went 16-8 (68%) vs. 47% usually

Home Dogs went 12-15 vs. 53% usually

Road Dogs went 22-23-1 vs. 51% usually

 

I bolded the situations where teams did exceedingly well (or poor). Compared to typical road favs, those that come off a bye have done particularly well. Home favs are also a good play off a bye. Dogs have done worse than avg off a bye.

 

As for teams going into a bye, road dogs have done very well compared to usual. But home dogs have done much worse than usual (usually home dogs are best).

 

Don't ever play a team just because they are a road dog going into a bye, for instance. But you can factor it into your analysis if you wish. It just gives you something else to thing about...

[Mojo Rising]

One of the games I've studied and think it could be a nice play is NYJ@NYG. The Jets boast one of the worst pass defenses in the league (253 passing y/g, 3 sacks), while the Giants are looking much improved on both ends of the field.

 

I expect it to be a high scoring event with the Giants taking it on their "home" field.

[i_am_the_swammi]

For you folk that like trends:

 

Packers -3 over Bears

 

Green Bay has covered 7 of its last 8, while the Bears have gone 0-4 this year, and a remarkable just 1-13 since last year.

 

Titans -8 over Falcons

 

Tennessee is 10-1 ATS over its last 11; Atlanta being outscored 37-10 overs it last 3 road games.

 

Indy -10 over Bucs

 

Indy is 28-3 at home over last three years; Bucs are 2-9 on the road the over thir last 11

 

 

Of these, I love Indy. While everyone is talking about the weapons the Colts might be missing, most everyone is neglecting their stellar defense to date. Add in a wounded Tampa running game, which they will need to abandon by halftime anyway, and Garcia has few weapons to keep up with Peyton, Wayne, Clark, and whoever they decide to start at RB. Indy 30, Tampa 16

 

Packers are a solid play, and my best bet. Don't think the Pack has forgotten the public display Lovie put on when he was hired..."We WILL beat Green Bay". Well, they haven't lost since they beat them, but this Sunday, the tables are turned. At home, with the better QB and perhaps the better defense (due to CHI injuries), I think Green Bay rolls convincingly, keeping their foot on the Bears throat a full 60 minutes. Green Bay 27, Chicago 10.

 

I also like the Browns to be competitive with NE, if for nother reasons than they are playing well, and NE comes off a short week and is no doubt looking ahead a little to Dallas next week. NE 28 Cleveland 17.

 

And call it a hunch, but I don't think the Saints go to 0-4, coming off the bye week. They have played teams with a combined record of 9-2, and while they have looked bad doing so, I think the bye-week will give them the breather they need to right the ship, at home, against a reeling Panthers team.

New Orleans 23, Panthers 16

[Steeltown Dre]

System 1 ATS (5-1 on the season): Hou, NE, GB

System 2 ATS (6-5 on the season): Car, Jax, Det, Atl, Sea, Cle, TB, SD

Over System 1 (7-0 on the season): no plays today

Over System 2 (9-2 on the season): NE/Cle, Pit/Sea

Under System 1 (5-3 on the season): Car/NO, Jax/KC, Was/Det, Atl/Ten, Arz/Stl, TB/Ind, SD/Den

Under System 2 (0-2 on the season): Car/NO, Arz/Stl

 

Unders System have not been doing as well, partly because since this system started in Week 3, O/U have been 34-24 Overs. Those are just my system plays.

 

My plays today:

 

Favs:

Bal

Dogs:

Sea, TB, Atl

 

Tonight most likely on GB or no play. I know the stigma associated w/ West Coast coming to East Coast and playing a 1pm game. We'll see how Seattle does today.

 

Several sharp guys I know are on the Jets and STL, just to share that w/ you. I'll take another O/U play from my system. Last week it hit. Not sure which one it will be today.

 

Good luck on your plays today.

[Gdawg]

Several sharp guys I know are on the Jets and STL, just to share that w/ you. I'll take another O/U play from my system. Last week it hit. Not sure which one it will be today.

 

Good luck on your plays today.

 

I've re-thought the ARZ game, taking STL +3.5. ARZ has been terrible, just terrible on the road in the past, they will have to prove it to me that things have changed.

 

Also like GB, HOU, hedging on NE though...so many points...

 

Good luck today guys.

[i_am_the_swammi]

I've re-thought the ARZ game, taking STL +3.5. ARZ has been terrible, just terrible on the road in the past, they will have to prove it to me that things have changed.

 

Also like GB, HOU, hedging on NE though...so many points...

 

Good luck today guys.

 

Went with the Titans -8, and the Rams +4.

 

And against my better judgement, teased the Rams (+10) and the Colts (-4).