Sir Loins of Beef Posted October 7, 2007 Share Posted October 7, 2007 What everyone still hasn't brought up is Colt David had already missed two field goals in the game--LSU defense scheme was painful to watch -Tebow was having a field day until the late 3rd quarter when they went to a more attacking defense and started sending the blitz packages--hopefully Pellini has picked up that a good quarterback with time can beat any defense--Kentucky has a good quarterback Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeohiostate Posted October 7, 2007 Author Share Posted October 7, 2007 your on for both. no need for anyone to hold bets at the end we mail the winnings to the winner. I'm good for my money never reneged on a bet in my life and ain't about to start now. deal......................counting my xtra New Years Day party money already Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbimm Posted October 7, 2007 Share Posted October 7, 2007 What everyone still hasn't brought up is Colt David had already missed two field goals in the game--LSU defense scheme was painful to watch -Tebow was having a field day until the late 3rd quarter when they went to a more attacking defense and started sending the blitz packages--hopefully Pellini has picked up that a good quarterback with time can beat any defense--Kentucky has a good quarterback I actually spoke of David's ineptness in a PM with TOS this morning. That is the sole reason that Miles went for it 5 times on 4th down! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted October 8, 2007 Share Posted October 8, 2007 Fear the Hat! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffeeman Posted October 8, 2007 Share Posted October 8, 2007 Fear the Hat! What does this mean - Les is a genius? You'd be playing a totally diff. tune if they'd been stuffed on any of those 3 last gambles on the final drive. Believe me, it hurts when it doesn't work, even if you agree with the decision at the time. Coach Carroll lost a NC title due to about 9 inches recently - with the 'greatest team ever'. To say nothing about the loss to Stanford, for lack of a lousy 1 yard just before the half too. Awful.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GWPFFL BrianW Posted October 8, 2007 Share Posted October 8, 2007 i think the only gamble that was in question, was on the 4th down where they coulda punted, or gone for it. There was still a lot of time on the clock, so punting it, with that defense woulda been a good option, it took balls to go for it there. After that though, I believe he was at the point of no return. It was touchdown or bust. Yeah they coulda tied it and taken there chances in OT, but with the iffy fg kicker, and the way LSU had problems putting it in the end zone when they got close, I woulda tried for a td as well. And it wasn't like they were these huge gambles. All of the gambles were and should have been made. If you can't get 1 yard in the SEC, then quit the game right there. Now 4th and 1, down 6-3 and going for a fade to Jenkins, on the road against Purdue, in 2002, THAT was a gamble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted October 8, 2007 Share Posted October 8, 2007 i think the only gamble that was in question, was on the 4th down where they coulda punted, or gone for it. There was still a lot of time on the clock, so punting it, with that defense woulda been a good option, it took balls to go for it there. After that though, I believe he was at the point of no return. It was touchdown or bust. Yeah they coulda tied it and taken there chances in OT, but with the iffy fg kicker, and the way LSU had problems putting it in the end zone when they got close, I woulda tried for a td as well. And it wasn't like they were these huge gambles. All of the gambles were and should have been made. If you can't get 1 yard in the SEC, then quit the game right there. Now 4th and 1, down 6-3 and going for a fade to Jenkins, on the road against Purdue, in 2002, THAT was a gamble. +1 I think the biggest mistake people make is thinking that going for the TD to win rather than the FG to tie is a gamble. Think about the last time he went for it. If he kicks the FG, he's settling for a less than 50/50 chance of winning. Because it's not a 100% chance of hitting the FG (maybe 95%, but obviously not 100%), and after doing that, he still needs to hold FLA from scoring just to make it to OT where he has a 50/50 chance to win. So, maybe FLA has a 1 in 5 chance of making it down the field and kicking the winning FG, LSU's odds are as follows: 95% chance of getting to an 80% chance of making OT where it's 50% odds, or a 38% chance of winning if they kick the FG. I can't find the exact odds, but I've got to guess that you're looking at at least 70% chance of picking up the first. Then you're 1st and goal around the 5. From there, again, I think you've got better than 50% odds of scoring a TD in 3 plays let's say 60%. Now, you can always kick the FG after that if you're stuck outside the 2 or so yard line, only this time UF won't have enough time to score again, so you don't need to worry about that. So, that breaks down to, you'll have to trust me on this, 51%. That is, a 38% chance of converting, followed by a TD, followed by keeping UF from scoring a TD themselves (gave UF a very generous 1 in 10 chance of going the distance) plus 13% chance of converting plus being held on 3 plays, plus making the FG, plus winning in OT. So, is Les such a riverboat gambler to choose the option that gave him a 51% chance of winning over the one that gave him 38%? If you actually look at the odds behind these things, you'll find that what we perceive as risky is often playing by the numbers and what we see as conservative is actually hoping against bad odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffeeman Posted October 8, 2007 Share Posted October 8, 2007 So, is Les such a riverboat gambler to choose the option that gave him a 51% chance of winning over the one that gave him 38%? If you actually look at the odds behind these things, you'll find that what we perceive as risky is often playing by the numbers and what we see as conservative is actually hoping against bad odds. Good lord detlef - I never knew you were such a stats nerd. I thought you were too busy running a restaurant to do this kind of stuff! I can perhaps agree with you on principle, but I'll have to have some of my actuaries double-check your figures first. Actuaries can do this. Luckily, I can throw a rock over my cubicle and hit at least 4 of these super-nerds, so here goes.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted October 8, 2007 Share Posted October 8, 2007 Good lord detlef - I never knew you were such a stats nerd. I thought you were too busy running a restaurant to do this kind of stuff! I can perhaps agree with you on principle, but I'll have to have some of my actuaries double-check your figures first. Actuaries can do this. Luckily, I can throw a rock over my cubicle and hit at least 4 of these super-nerds, so here goes.... As I said, I didn't know the exact odds, so most of my calculations are based on hunches. That said, I don't think I erred one way more than the other, so I'd imagine they'd cancel out. Had the resulting final odds been just a few points different, then the inexact nature of my calculations would have made it totally inconclusive. However, I think 13% is a big enough margin to allow a little slop. I have, however, done similar checks on other game time decisions labeled as "gambles" and nearly always find that they're the safer bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted October 9, 2007 Share Posted October 9, 2007 What does this mean - Les is a genius? You'd be playing a totally diff. tune if they'd been stuffed on any of those 3 last gambles on the final drive. Believe me, it hurts when it doesn't work, even if you agree with the decision at the time. Coach Carroll lost a NC title due to about 9 inches recently - with the 'greatest team ever'. To say nothing about the loss to Stanford, for lack of a lousy 1 yard just before the half too. Awful.... Thought this was an interesting artivcle written by an Alabama columnist who is very much disliked by LSU fans. Cute title to: "Saban now Miles away from LSU" Tuesday, October 09, 2007 Nick Saban Who? Good gracious, what else can they say about this fine man? Isn't it enough for the national media to call him a liar and cheat and a scoundrel and a weasel? In a perverse way, one might suppose those are really compliments, at least to the degree that Saban is still relevant. But when CBS lead analyst Gary Danielson -- who sounds like he could win the starring role of any of the Three Stooges if Hollywood ever does a remake (take your pick, Curly, Larry or Moe) -- went after Saban in the waning moments of LSU's victory over Florida, one had to wonder what the world is coming to. In his obvious glee over Les Miles blindly rolling the dice correctly five times on fourth down (hitting that number has to be the biggest upset since David over Goliath), Danielson officially declared the end of Saban's reign on the Bayou when he uttered "Nick Saban Who?" Clearly, he meant this was now Miles' team and it would be impossible to argue, considering this was his biggest win to date, his program is indisputably No. 1 in the nation and his record at LSU is a staggering 28-4. When you juxtapose that stentorian scene in Tiger Stadium with the creepy sight in Bryant-Denny a few hours earlier, perhaps it gave Danielson reason to start flapping his gums. While the biggest crowd ever in Tiger Stadium had fans hanging off the flag pole trying to catch a peep of one of the most dramatic college football games in eons, tens of thousands had already fled the premises in Tuscaloosa, fully expecting Alabama to finish off the Houston Cougars (fresh off a 37-35 loss to East Carolina) in classic Crimson Tide style after jumping to a 23-0 lead. Do you think Saban was kicking himself late Saturday night, painfully watching his old team (and a few of his former players) become the new "it" team in college football? Meanwhile, in Tuscaloosa, the home of those 12 dusty national championships, Saban's "new" team continues to search for an identity six games into the season? There are no guarantees in life, but if Saban doesn't completely turn around the mess he inherited in Tuscaloosa from Pretty Boy Shula, his decision to leave LSU for Miami (where he went 15-17 and beat the rush out of town considering the Dolphins currently stand at 0-5), might go down as one of the biggest blunders of all-time. Suddenly, instead of LSU fans yearning for Miles to depart for Michigan and a return of Saban, it's a safe bet the hottest T-shirt in Baton Rouge next week will be: "Nick Saban Who?" When I watch Miles coach, I don't know whether to call the state authorities to order up a paddy wagon completely furnished with a purple and gold straight jacket or to declare him an absolute genius. He's the most baffling coach to watch I've ever seen. But Saturday night, he won the game and that's all that matters. There may be another explanation. Knowing he probably has the Michigan job if he wants it, Miles is finally coaching with reckless abandon and no fear. Of course, Urban Meyer tried to out-dumb him aided in the cause. Can we now officially strip the prefix "Genius" from his name? Suddenly, Ole Miss and Mississippi State don't look like sure bets for Alabama anymore. Talk of a "dream matchup" between two undefeated teams on Nov. 3 (LSU-Alabama) seems as distant as the thought of the 2007 Southern Cal team going down as the greatest college football team in history. Instead of answers at this juncture, there are mainly questions, such as: Is there a reason why Alabama can't play four quarters in a game against Houston? I understand that going up against Arkansas, Georgia and Florida State in a row is difficult. But finishing off Houston? It's one thing for Alabama to suffer late in major battles because of depth issues. We factored that in before the season. But some of the decisions made by this staff, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, are baffling. Can I please get someone to double check for DNA and make triple-sure Mike Shula has left Tuscaloosa County? Having said all of this, there is no reason for panic. I still believe Saban has the program moving in the right direction over the long term. Reasonable people felt this season would be a struggle, even after the 3-0 start. However, the Tide is certainly facing an interesting stretch over these next few weeks when things possibly could get worse. Alabama beat Ole Miss on a last-second field goal two years ago and won in overtime last year in Tuscaloosa. I can't imagine the Rebels have gotten worse since then, although it's possible. Regardless, it's difficult to avoid peeking around the league and seeing Auburn getting better, Tennessee turning around and LSU raging in Cajun Country. Of the remaining five games, only Louisiana-Monroe seems like a lead-pipe cinch for Alabama. And for the first time in forever, Nick Saban looks human. And for the first time in even longer, Les Miles looks like Superman. Is that murmur I hear out there Alabama fans quietly hoping Miles will take the money and run for Michigan? Or is it the sound of novelty shops in Louisiana working overtime this week to stock the shelves in T-shirts and bumper stickers reading: Nick Saban Who? Contact Paul Finebaum at: finebaumnet@yahoo.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeohiostate Posted October 14, 2007 Author Share Posted October 14, 2007 your on for both. no need for anyone to hold bets at the end we mail the winnings to the winner. I'm good for my money never reneged on a bet in my life and ain't about to start now. That's 1 , all i need is another LSU loss for the $100. I think they'll probably lose 2 more games though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAYER Posted October 14, 2007 Share Posted October 14, 2007 That's 1 , all i need is another LSU loss for the $100. I think they'll probably lose 2 more games though. Yes that is one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeohiostate Posted October 14, 2007 Author Share Posted October 14, 2007 Yes that is one. Next one will come against the best team in the SEC , Auburn next week. If the escape that game, it'll be a rematch in the SEC Championship game against Kentucky, which owns them right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
untateve Posted October 14, 2007 Share Posted October 14, 2007 Next one will come against the best team in the SEC , Auburn next week. If the escape that game, it'll be a rematch in the SEC Championship game against Kentucky, which owns them right now. I'll take a bet on Florida v Kentucky...they play next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GWPFFL BrianW Posted October 14, 2007 Share Posted October 14, 2007 I'll take a bet on Florida v Kentucky...they play next week. nope, Fla wins that one. Fla shoulda beat LSU, and would have one any other field. Honestly I see a 10+ victory for Fla vs KY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted October 14, 2007 Share Posted October 14, 2007 I'll take a bet on Florida v Kentucky...they play next week. Believe it or not I would have liked Kentucky over the Gators more so if LSU woul d have beaten the Wildcats. Gonna be hard for the Cats to come back after that kind of an emotional win. Question still remains how the Gators are going to respond after sitting a week on two consecutive losses. Should be interesting to see what the line will be? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt. Ryan Posted October 15, 2007 Share Posted October 15, 2007 whats interesting is how average LSU is, and how stupid some of their fans are. AKA John Rocker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAYER Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 That's 1 , all i need is another LSU loss for the $100. I think they'll probably lose 2 more games though. Still need 1 more Next one will come against the best team in the SEC , Auburn next week. If the escape that game, it'll be a rematch in the SEC Championship game against Kentucky, which owns them right now. I guess LSU is the best team in the SEC since they beat Auburn who was the best team whats interesting is how average LSU is, and how stupid some of their fans are. AKA John Rocker. And OU is below avg having scored just 17 against Iowa St. when they were a 30 pt favorite. your team needs to take care of their own business before you go knocking other teams. how many top fifteen teams have OU beaten this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt. Ryan Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 (edited) Still need 1 moreI guess LSU is the best team in the SEC since they beat Auburn who was the best team And OU is below avg having scored just 17 against Iowa St. when they were a 30 pt favorite. your team needs to take care of their own business before you go knocking other teams. how many top fifteen teams have OU beaten this year? LMMFAO, LSU wont win out. So they are not going to be a factor. Deal with it. S Carolina losing today, gives FLA control of its own destiny from here on out. LSU may get past Bama, to meet FLA in the SEC Champ game. NO WAY FLA loses to LSU on a neutral field. OU won today, so they took care of their business on the road. Does LSU ever play on the road. Other than losing last week that is. LSU needed 59 minutes and 59 seconds to beat Auburn, who has now lost 3 games, inclusing Miss St. Edited October 21, 2007 by Sgt. Ryan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeohiostate Posted October 21, 2007 Author Share Posted October 21, 2007 Les Miles has proven over the last 3 weeks, to be one of the biggest IDIOTS in DI coaching, this guy has single handidly almost cost them 3 straight loses, LSU has been bitchslapped 3 weeks in a row, and MR. IQ has made some of the craziest coaching decisions i've seen, well since Lyold Carr This team will undoubtably lose 1 or 2 more games, I can assure you that Les will make sure of that LES MILES IS AN IDIOT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GWPFFL BrianW Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 I will say, this also means, that LSU is very talented, because only a tremendous amount of talent can overcome idiotic coaching. He proved he was stupid at the end of the game when he didn't even know how much time was left, and tried to cover by acting like he knew EXACTLY what was going on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sacosud Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 I would not say idiot, but maybe gambling quite a bit and yes I'm not sure if he really knew the clock situation last night. I can say this, it worked out and I think there still would have been a second left had he dropped the ball. I would put LSU to #3 this week even if I feel they are #2 only because you can't penalize BC for not playing. LSU really more than I hate to say it is most likely #1b with OSU being 1A. OSU has a big test next week and a lot will be clearer in a week. Oregon is a team I like to make a strong push if they can play defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted October 22, 2007 Share Posted October 22, 2007 "Fear the Hat" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeohiostate Posted November 24, 2007 Author Share Posted November 24, 2007 $100 says LSU doesn't lose two games this year. I take cash-check or paypal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt. Ryan Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 "Fear the Hat" Ar-kansas sure looked scared of the hat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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