Week 6 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

EDIT: Please change title to "Week 6". Thanks.

 

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

My personal (posted) plays this year:

 

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 4-0

Week 4: 3-1

Week 5: 2-2-1

 

Overall: 16-4-1

(Including leans and not played: 19-5-1)

 

My first losing week of the season last week. Not too happy about it, but still well in the money overall. I'm entering a time period when I foresee more availability to post information, insights and tips, much more than I have during the first 5 weeks of the season. So that should keep this thread more active from here out, and hopefully of more value to you.

 

Let's get more money this week.

Edited October 11, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Gdawg]

I've been slacking since I've been so busy, really haven't played too much so far this year. My schedule will start to ease up in a week or two, hopefully I can chip in here and there.

 

Let's take it to the MAN this week.

[Lucky11]

just starting to look over the lines and here's two that jump out:

 

CAR v ARI - i like the Cards -4.5 at home in this one. Carolina has been tough on the road this season, but this will be their toughest test so far. Carr at the helm [edit: looks like Vinny might get the start, like AZ more!] is not a good sign for any team, let alone one who only put up 16 points against one of the worst teams in the entire league. Even though Zona will (most likely) be missing Bolidn, I like what Warner has done so far. With no QBBC to deal with, I like him to get good #s against a defense that has given up 1168 yds through the air. Zona's also been tough at home this season, taking care of business vs. PIT and SEA (two teams who are much better than CAR has faced this year).

 

NE v DAL - gotta go with the Under (53) in this one. both defenses are fairly stout, even though they've played lesser opponents (i.e. underachieving teams) all season. i think the betting public loves the favorite and the over most of the time, and because of the prior offense performances from both teams, i can see the number moving even higher come Sunday morning. much as i dislike the man, Bellicheck is gonna have the Pats well prepared to get pressure on Romo early and often, and force DAL to run the ball. however, the Boys do play tough at home and will be fired up for this one too. Brady will get his two scores, but the Dallas D will make it hard for him. prediction: NE 27, DAL 24.

 

i'm going to do some more research on these, but the Rams and Raiders are both getting 10 on the road. while the Rams are obviously a horrible team in disarray (especially on the road), i'm not sure the Ravens should be ten point faves to anyone right now, and going in to the bye in week 7. further, the Chargers haven't impressed anyone this year (except the 40,000 Bronco fans who left early last Sunday) and the Raiders aren't as bad as everyone thinks. this is a division game and a heated rivalry, which probably means a little more to both teams. Kiffen should have the boys in black ready to go on Sunday, and even though he's a first year coach, he's got to be better than poor Norv. the more i think about it, the more i like OAK +10.

 

good luck everyone

Edited October 12, 2007 by Lucky11

[Steeltown Dre]

Last week we had our first road fav off a bye week, in Jax visiting KC. Jax won and covered. That brings this record to 17-8 ATS since 2002.

 

The interesting thing about this ATS trend is that even though spreads have varied from -2 up to -11, in 24 games out of 25, the favorite either covered the spread or lost the game outright. There was only 1 time in 25 that the road fav off a bye actually won the game but didn't cover.

 

Again, typically road favs are the worst play in the NFL, winning only 47% of their games. But off a bye since the restructuring, these teams are covering higher than any other team coming off a bye (home fav, road dog, home dog).

 

This week we have 2 teams falling into this category: Cin and Phi are both 3 point favs on the road.

 

Let me throw another gem out there on Philly. The 2 seasons before Andy Reid took over in 1999, Philly was 0-2 ATS and SU off a bye.

 

Since Reid took over, Philly has never lost coming off a bye. They were dogs in 3 games, and won all SU. The 6 games as favs, they covered spreads as big as -10. They did lose 2 times ATS, but those were when they were favored by -10.5 and -4. But in those games, they only failed to cover by 1 or 1.5 points.

 

The games they did cover, they covered by a lot. On average when favored, they won by 20 points, and covered the spread by 14 points. The other thing to note is the O/U has gone 1-8 in these games. So if you like these numbers, Philly and the Under should look pretty good.

 

It's hard to say how the Jets will do when playing a team off a bye. They didn't face a team coming off a bye last year, which was Mangini's first. Under Edwards and since 2002, they went 1-3 ATS when facing a team off its bye.

[CowboysDiehard]

I really like the UNDER for TB/TEN (37.5). Also, Vince is getting 2.5 points on the road at that game. Not bad, I like Vince as an underdog in any situation. I can see TEN winning that game outright.

[Mojo Rising]

Last week we had our first road fav off a bye week, in Jax visiting KC. Jax won and covered. That brings this record to 17-8 ATS since 2002.

 

The interesting thing about this ATS trend is that even though spreads have varied from -2 up to -11, in 24 games out of 25, the favorite either covered the spread or lost the game outright. There was only 1 time in 25 that the road fav off a bye actually won the game but didn't cover.

 

Again, typically road favs are the worst play in the NFL, winning only 47% of their games. But off a bye since the restructuring, these teams are covering higher than any other team coming off a bye (home fav, road dog, home dog).

 

This week we have 2 teams falling into this category: Cin and Phi are both 3 point favs on the road.

 

Let me throw another gem out there on Philly. The 2 seasons before Andy Reid took over in 1999, Philly was 0-2 ATS and SU off a bye.

 

Since Reid took over, Philly has never lost coming off a bye. They were dogs in 3 games, and won all SU. The 6 games as favs, they covered spreads as big as -10. They did lose 2 times ATS, but those were when they were favored by -10.5 and -4. But in those games, they only failed to cover by 1 or 1.5 points.

 

The games they did cover, they covered by a lot. On average when favored, they won by 20 points, and covered the spread by 14 points. The other thing to note is the O/U has gone 1-8 in these games. So if you like these numbers, Philly and the Under should look pretty good.

 

It's hard to say how the Jets will do when playing a team off a bye. They didn't face a team coming off a bye last year, which was Mangini's first. Under Edwards and since 2002, they went 1-3 ATS when facing a team off its bye.

 

nice trends dre, thanks!

 

the game I've been looking at is MNF......I just don't see how the much improved Giants can not completely annihilate Harrington and the Falcons. Their OL is having some issues and they really dont have the skill to keep up IMO. Anybody have insights into why the line just looks to good to be true?

[Gdawg]

First, a note on the STL@BAL game: Boller is very likely to start. Now, I know BAL is a 9.5 fav, which is more than they scored last week, but in this spot I actually lean towards a cover here, maybe at -9.

 

This week was BRUTAL, just brutal for Billick and Co, they were essentially crucified all week on the radio and in the press. Given the pressure to score and the fact that Boller, who I consider an UPGRADE to McNair at this point, they just might pull it off.

 

I'm going to play it, but only for one unit, I want to see if my hunch is correct. Baltimore also gets CB Samari Rolle back, finally, which will help the defense.

 

As for the rest of the games:

 

PHI -3

NYG -3

MIN +5

MIA +4.5

 

Stil working on the NE/DAL game, but right now leaning towards the Boys. The line is NE -5.5 at Bookmaker, I'm hoping it will move even more.

 

Good luck guys, try to catch up to you in the morning!

Edited October 14, 2007 by Gdawg

[i_am_the_swammi]

First, a note on the STL@BAL game: Boller is very likely to start. Now, I know BAL is a 9.5 fav, which is more than they scored last week, but in this spot I actually lean towards a cover here, maybe at -9.

 

As for the rest of the games:

 

PHI -3

NYG -3

MIN +5

MIA +4.5

 

FYI...Baltimore is on an 0-5 spread run this season...while I would lean towards the Ravens if I was betting the game, I'd stay away....betting into a trend is never the way to go.

 

The Swammi's weekly picks:

 

ATL +3.5 over NYG: Here is a line that begs you to take the Giants. The G-men crushed the Eagles two weeks ago, and then staged a furious comeback to defeat the Jets last week. But a closer look at those games indicates the Giants have some serious issues...they defeated an Eagle team missing two of its starting OL, as well as their uber-stud RB Westbrook. And they did so by not being able to put the game away until well into the 2nd half. Fast-forward to last week, where they played a brutal first 40 minutes against the Jets, and save for the Jets handing the game back to them, this would have been a devastating "L". Atlanta, meanwhile, has yet to play well for a solid 60 minutes....both offensively and defensively. However, if you remember their televised preseason game, they wanted to prove to the nation that they were more than just Michael Vick. I see that pride rising up again Monday Night, and behind a motivated Joey Harrington, and the season's first Jerious Norwood sighting, it somes together.

 

Atlanta 23, Giants 20

 

NE (-6.5) over DAL: I wouldn't normally take a high-profile game like this as one of my picks, but the Romo-debacle Monday night gave me plenty of reasons (5, actually) to take the road favorite. Buffalo was able to humbly expose Romo as a rookie (he'll be starting his 16th game this week) still learning to read coverages, and Bill Belichek will aptly take note and do the same. And with the Pats still wanting to prove that spy-gate was not the reason they have been so successful, they will be plenty motivated. But let's be basic here: the Pats have the better QB, the better defense, and the better coach. Three big checks in their corner. The fact that haven't scored less than 30 points in any game this season, and the closest margin of victory was 17, is more than enough for me.

 

Patriots 34, Cowboys 24

 

SD (-10) over OAK: SD is back, and playing for 1st place this week in the AFC West against those Raiders. OAK comes off a bye week, and a win the prior week over MIA. But don't let those 5 Culpepper TDs fool you, or your wallet. Culpepper threw for under 100 yards in the contest, and was the beneficiary of a super-human effort from Justin Fargas (178 wnd-half rushing yards). Those yards won't come so easy against the stout SD rush defense, and Culpepper will be forced to throw (and uglier, stand in the pocket)....exactly what SD would love to have happen. I see an ugly day for the OAK offense, and, finally, an LT day many FF owners ahve been waiting for. Oakland's defense has been playing well, but due to the offense's ineffectiveness, I see them being on the field for 37-40 minutes this week, and in the So. Cal. sunshine, they will wilt in the latter half of the game.

 

Chargers 38, Oakland 17

 

STL/BAL over 37: the overrated BAL defense will contiinue to give up its fair share of points, but in this game, they'll also score more than enough to send this game well over the total

 

Ravens 27, Rams 20

 

 

Other games I like, but am not playing:

 

PHL -3 over NYJ : Andy Reid is, after all, 8-0 following a bye-week; he knows how to get his players ready for the stretch run.

CIN -3 over KC : not enough bullets int eh KC arsenal to keep up with the Bengals

NO +6.5 pver SEA : what on earth did the Seahawks do last week to be instilled as a touchdown favorite, besides get shut-out?

Edited October 14, 2007 by i_am_the_swammi

[whomper]

I like the Redskins/G.B over 40.5...Farve will be good for a few tds and a few picks that will lead to TDs. The Skins are a pretty good team this year..I see a 28-20 or 27-24 type of game in favor of Wash

Edited October 14, 2007 by whomper

[rattsass]

Swammi, I hate to say it but I am probably leaning the other way in all of those games.

 

But not playing 2 of the 3 so who cares where I lean. Hope it works out for you.

 

I'm on Cin -3, Houston +7, Oak +10.

Edited October 14, 2007 by rattsass

[Gdawg]

FYI...Baltimore is on an 0-5 spread run this season...while I would lean towards the Ravens if I was betting the game, I'd stay away....betting into a trend is never the way to go.

 

 

Thanks Swammi, but being from Baltimore I am well aware of that trend

 

As I said, it's just a hunch, I made a very, VERY small play on this one. Thanks though!

 

Good luck today

[Steeltown Dre]

Brandon Lang

 

25 DIME

 

BROWNS

 

EAGLES - (If your man has 3 1/2, you buy the hook and only lay -3. You never, I repeat, you never get beat buy the half. You can lay -4 if that is what your man has but NEVER get beat by the hook.)

 

SEAHAWKS (If your man has 7 1/2, you buy the hook and only lay -7. You never, I repeat, you never get beat buy the half. You can lay 8 if that is what your man has but NEVER get beat by the hook. Always buy the half.)

 

20 DIME

 

Titans

 

15 DIME

 

Patriots

Raiders

 

10 DIME

 

Redskins

Vikings

 

5 DIME

 

Vikings/Bears OVER

 

Free pick - Saints/Seattle OVER

[Steeltown Dre]

Wayne Root

 

chairman - saints

millionaire - vikings

moneymaker - ravens

NL - chiefs

insider - jets

billionaire - cowboys

perfect - packers

 

Root's best play is the Chairman which is 7-2 on the season

His insider's circle is 3-1 on the season

[Steeltown Dre]

Big AL

 

championship - raiders

blue chip - dolphins

line movers - ravens

10 dime - titans/buccaneers under

offshore - redskins/packers under

 

Big Al's best play is the championship, which is 5-1 on the season

[Steeltown Dre]

There is a system starting in 2002 w/ the restructuring and regulating of bye weeks that shows:

 

If a team is favored by 6.5 points or more and playing the last game prior to a bye, they are 26-1 SU and 23-4 ATS. The only time a team lost SU was Philly last year heading into the bye vs. Jac.

 

This week we have SD, and next week we'll have Dal and Seattle.

[Steeltown Dre]

My top ATS system is showing no plays for today. Basically, for it to be a play for investing, it has to be high enough value. Right now, the top value plays are KC, Bal and Sea. But none are quite high enough to be plays.

 

However, my plays for today:

 

KC, Mia, Hou

 

I think the Ten line is showing the respect for Ten's ability to cover and VY's becoming a star in the public's eye. I'll go ahead and ride the train, even though I'm not as crazy about this pick as some are. Philly is so close to being a play but I haven't pulled the trigger yet. You can't argue w/ Philly's record off a bye, but they are without Shepard and Dawkins today.

 

So final plays for now: KC, Mia, Hou, Ten

 

May throw in Bal as well. Not because I like playing such large favs, but because I see a high line for no reason, and it's driven the public onto STL. Philly is a no play for now, but we'll see how things shake down the next 20 mins...

[Steeltown Dre]

Also, one thing on the Rams on the road. As road dogs since 2005, they have gone 4-9 SU and 5-8 ATS. In other words, they have only lost the game but still covered in 1 game out of 13. They either win (and therefore cover) or lose and fail to cover.

 

To be fair, however, I will say the only 2 times they faced DD home favs were at Indy in 2005 and at Dallas earlier this year. STL lost both games and didn't cover. The question is, why should an anemic offense like Baltimore (21st in the NFL w/ 17.6 ppg) deserve a -10 point home fav? Well, we'll find out later today....

[Trots]

Boller will start for the Ravens today.

[Steeltown Dre]

Boller will start for the Ravens today.

 

That's the only reason I am contemplating this play...

[Steeltown Dre]

3-2-1 on the day. Pulled the trigger on both Bal and Phi, and it paid off. Not the best day, but at least in the + money. On another day maybe Hou can pull it off. Jac is a far different team since coming out of the bye. They outrushed the Chiefs by 146 yards and outrushed the Texans by 183 yards. And although favored in both games, they covered in KC by 9 points and vs Hou by 13.5 points. Next week's matchup w/ Indy should be a good one. Indy will be the road fav off a bye, one of the plays I track. Right now I'm seeing Indy-3 in that game. Last meeting, Jac won 44-17 in Jacksonville.

[i_am_the_swammi]

I'm on Cin -3, Houston +7, Oak +10.

 

Ouch. Rough day.

[rattsass]

Ouch. Rough day.

Thanks for noticing and taking the time to remind me.

[i_am_the_swammi]

The Swammi's weekly picks:

 

ATL +3.5 over NYG: Here is a line that begs you to take the Giants. The G-men crushed the Eagles two weeks ago, and then staged a furious comeback to defeat the Jets last week. But a closer look at those games indicates the Giants have some serious issues...they defeated an Eagle team missing two of its starting OL, as well as their uber-stud RB Westbrook. And they did so by not being able to put the game away until well into the 2nd half. Fast-forward to last week, where they played a brutal first 40 minutes against the Jets, and save for the Jets handing the game back to them, this would have been a devastating "L". Atlanta, meanwhile, has yet to play well for a solid 60 minutes....both offensively and defensively. However, if you remember their televised preseason game, they wanted to prove to the nation that they were more than just Michael Vick. I see that pride rising up again Monday Night, and behind a motivated Joey Harrington, and the season's first Jerious Norwood sighting, it somes together.

 

Atlanta 23, Giants 20

 

NE (-6.5) over DAL: I wouldn't normally take a high-profile game like this as one of my picks, but the Romo-debacle Monday night gave me plenty of reasons (5, actually) to take the road favorite. Buffalo was able to humbly expose Romo as a rookie (he'll be starting his 16th game this week) still learning to read coverages, and Bill Belichek will aptly take note and do the same. And with the Pats still wanting to prove that spy-gate was not the reason they have been so successful, they will be plenty motivated. But let's be basic here: the Pats have the better QB, the better defense, and the better coach. Three big checks in their corner. The fact that haven't scored less than 30 points in any game this season, and the closest margin of victory was 17, is more than enough for me.

 

Patriots 34, Cowboys 24

 

SD (-10) over OAK: SD is back, and playing for 1st place this week in the AFC West against those Raiders. OAK comes off a bye week, and a win the prior week over MIA. But don't let those 5 Culpepper TDs fool you, or your wallet. Culpepper threw for under 100 yards in the contest, and was the beneficiary of a super-human effort from Justin Fargas (178 wnd-half rushing yards). Those yards won't come so easy against the stout SD rush defense, and Culpepper will be forced to throw (and uglier, stand in the pocket)....exactly what SD would love to have happen. I see an ugly day for the OAK offense, and, finally, an LT day many FF owners ahve been waiting for. Oakland's defense has been playing well, but due to the offense's ineffectiveness, I see them being on the field for 37-40 minutes this week, and in the So. Cal. sunshine, they will wilt in the latter half of the game.

 

Chargers 38, Oakland 17

 

STL/BAL over 37: the overrated BAL defense will contiinue to give up its fair share of points, but in this game, they'll also score more than enough to send this game well over the total

 

Ravens 27, Rams 20

Other games I like, but am not playing:

 

PHL -3 over NYJ : Andy Reid is, after all, 8-0 following a bye-week; he knows how to get his players ready for the stretch run.

CIN -3 over KC : not enough bullets int eh KC arsenal to keep up with the Bengals

NO +6.5 pver SEA : what on earth did the Seahawks do last week to be instilled as a touchdown favorite, besides get shut-out?

 

2-1 thus far, and have decided to lay some ching on the Saints....I normally wouldn't touch an 0-4 team, but something tells me this is their one chance to regain some swagger in the national spotlight. I see a tight game tonight, and the Seattle offense sputtering somewhat with the losses of both Strong and Branch. Homefield should get the Seahawks thru, but it'll be a close game til the end.

 

Seattle 23, New Orleans 20

[rattsass]

2-1 thus far, and have decided to lay some ching on the Saints....I normally wouldn't touch an 0-4 team, but something tells me this is their one chance to regain some swagger in the national spotlight. I see a tight game tonight, and the Seattle offense sputtering somewhat with the losses of both Strong and Branch. Homefield should get the Seahawks thru, but it'll be a close game til the end.

 

Seattle 23, New Orleans 20

Well since you are such a genius TODAY I will ride with you on the Saints. I mean, they can't lose all 16 ATS......can they?

[i_am_the_swammi]

Thanks for noticing and taking the time to remind me.

 

Sorry man....have a chilly and rout for the Saints with me.