i_am_the_swammi Posted October 15, 2007 Share Posted October 15, 2007 Well since you are such a genius TODAY I will ride with you on the Saints. I mean, they can't lose all 16 ATS......can they? 3-1 last week, soon-to-be 3-1 today.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 15, 2007 Share Posted October 15, 2007 I was already on the Saints. Just wanted you to feel extra special. Cause that is just what I do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted October 15, 2007 Share Posted October 15, 2007 (edited) Not too bad so far this week, won on PHI, MIN, and BAL; I was especially pleased with my hunch with regard to BAL. Mercifully I got cold feet with NE/DAL and stayed away! Even won a few $$$ on the Saints last night. Lost on MIA and got Cleo Lemmoned in one of my leagues, my undefeated team went down in flames Still have NYG -3 tonight, we'll see how it goes. The line was up to -4.5 at Bookmaker last night by the time I hit the sack. Edited October 15, 2007 by Gdawg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted October 15, 2007 Share Posted October 15, 2007 Still have NYG -3 tonight, we'll see how it goes. The line was up to -4.5 at Bookmaker last night by the time I hit the sack. That line might go off at -5 once some more NYG money comes in from the Big Apple. If so, you'd be smart to lay a few coins off on the Falcons, and see if you can't win both wagers. 20-16 would do you just right! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted October 15, 2007 Share Posted October 15, 2007 That line might go off at -5 once some more NYG money comes in from the Big Apple. If so, you'd be smart to lay a few coins off on the Falcons, and see if you can't win both wagers. 20-16 would do you just right! Yeah, I can see the line going -5. Hmmm, food for thought Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted October 15, 2007 Author Share Posted October 15, 2007 There is a system starting in 2002 w/ the restructuring and regulating of bye weeks that shows: If a team is favored by 6.5 points or more and playing the last game prior to a bye, they are 26-1 SU and 23-4 ATS. The only time a team lost SU was Philly last year heading into the bye vs. Jac. This week we have SD, and next week we'll have Dal and Seattle. This system cannot be ignored. SD won and covered, bringing this system to 27-1 SU and 24-4 ATS. Dal is -9.5 next week vs Min, and Sea is -8 next week vs STL. Also have to keep tracking road favs coming off a bye. This past week we had Phi and Cin. I did not play Cin because under Marvin Lewis, they have never covered coming off a bye. Unlike Philly, which has always covered under Andy Reid. Next week we have Pit and Indy. This system is hitting 67%. Hard to say how Pit will do under Tomlin, but Dungy has gone 2-3 since 2002 off a bye. They only lost 1 of those 5, but failed to cover in 2 of the 4 wins. In those ATS losses, they won the game by an avg of 8 points but were favored by an avg of 13 points. Another thing to note is the total has always gone over in those 5 games, and the last 3 games had totals above 47 (on avg). I'm seeing Colts -3 and a O/U of 45. Lastly, the final bye system that is hitting at 62% are home favs coming off a bye. Last week we did not have a play. Next week we have Det -2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted October 15, 2007 Share Posted October 15, 2007 Dre, any advice or tidbits tonite? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 15, 2007 Share Posted October 15, 2007 I parlayed Saints ML and Giants -4. Now I see the spread is pushing 6. Glad I got in when I did. I really don't think it will matter. Looks like a 10 point game to me, but that being said I would have a lot harder time laying 6 than 4. I would tread with caution, but Joey might not finish this one, and I am sad to say he is the only chance the Falcons have. If Leftwich take the field, you can go to bed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted October 16, 2007 Share Posted October 16, 2007 I parlayed Saints ML and Giants -4. Now I see the spread is pushing 6. Glad I got in when I did. I really don't think it will matter. Looks like a 10 point game to me, but that being said I would have a lot harder time laying 6 than 4. I would tread with caution, but Joey might not finish this one, and I am sad to say he is the only chance the Falcons have. If Leftwich take the field, you can go to bed. Lefty is inactive tonight...bum ankle. Got the Falcons at +6 with the local guy...a gift from the +3.5 it opened at. Falcons were one of my picks of the week at +3.5...love them here at +6. Heavy money on the Giants moving this line...had to go the other way here. Also a small play on the over to make it interesting. Big Norwood night tonight (for him, anyway), me thinks. GL boys.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goopster24 Posted October 16, 2007 Share Posted October 16, 2007 Doesn't seem like anyone is worried that Atlanta is starting 3 rookies on the offensive line to help cotain Osi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted October 16, 2007 Author Share Posted October 16, 2007 Dre, any advice or tidbits tonite? Sorry - just logged back on and saw this. Personally my lean is to the over, and I started typing this prior to Norwood's TD run. I didn't take either side. I know a couple sharps on the over, and I can see that one coming in, especially given the fast start that we've seen. Sorry I didn't see this earlier - already started looking harder at next week. Good luck on whatever you played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted October 16, 2007 Share Posted October 16, 2007 Sorry - just logged back on and saw this. Personally my lean is to the over, and I started typing this prior to Norwood's TD run. I didn't take either side. I know a couple sharps on the over, and I can see that one coming in, especially given the fast start that we've seen. Sorry I didn't see this earlier - already started looking harder at next week. Good luck on whatever you played.I parlayed the Over with the Cleveland Indians (+1 1/2) :fingerscrossed: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uglytuna Posted October 16, 2007 Share Posted October 16, 2007 I bet HUGH ONE would go away but I lost that bet? He like a wife that won't leave. ugly tuna Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted October 16, 2007 Author Share Posted October 16, 2007 I parlayed the Over with the Cleveland Indians (+1 1/2) :fingerscrossed: Well, I researched it and since 1989 there have only been 23 games where there were 24 points or more scored in the 1st quarter when the total was between 40 and 44 points. Out of a total of 1,459 games where the total was between 40 and 44 points. So you rarely see such a high scoring 1st quarter w/ a total of the 43.5 points we saw in tonights game. Only 1.6% of the time. And, in those games where we had such a high scoring 1st quarter (as we've seen tonight), the Over has gone 23-1-1. So you never can guarantee anything, but I'd say the over portion of your bet is looking very good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted October 16, 2007 Share Posted October 16, 2007 Well, I researched it and since 1989 there have only been 23 games where there were 24 points or more scored in the 1st quarter when the total was between 40 and 44 points. Out of a total of 1,459 games where the total was between 40 and 44 points. So you rarely see such a high scoring 1st quarter w/ a total of the 43.5 points we saw in tonights game. Only 1.6% of the time. And, in those games where we had such a high scoring 1st quarter (as we've seen tonight), the Over has gone 23-1-1. So you never can guarantee anything, but I'd say the over portion of your bet is looking very good. 4-2 Tribe in the 7th. The other portion looking good too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 16, 2007 Share Posted October 16, 2007 Got the Falcons at +6 with the local guy...a gift from the +3.5 it opened at. Falcons were one of my picks of the week at +3.5...love them here at +6. GL boys.... Rough night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted October 16, 2007 Share Posted October 16, 2007 Rough night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted October 16, 2007 Author Share Posted October 16, 2007 Well, I researched it and since 1989 there have only been 23 games where there were 24 points or more scored in the 1st quarter when the total was between 40 and 44 points. Out of a total of 1,459 games where the total was between 40 and 44 points. So you rarely see such a high scoring 1st quarter w/ a total of the 43.5 points we saw in tonights game. Only 1.6% of the time. And, in those games where we had such a high scoring 1st quarter (as we've seen tonight), the Over has gone 23-1-1. So you never can guarantee anything, but I'd say the over portion of your bet is looking very good. Rough way for those who had the over to lose a total. This gives me the opportunity to talk for a second about going for a middle. The 2nd half O/U was 21.5. Therefore, at halftime, someone who had the over 43.5 could have taken the Under 21.5 for the 2nd half. This would mean they would win both bets so long as the total was between 44 and 52. I didn't have a side last night or a O/U bet. But if I had the Over, what I usually will do is lay 1/2 of my original bet on the opportunity to get a middle. What happens then is this. If the game goes way over, then I still have won money, but only half of what I originally wagered. Sure, after the game, I might be upset that I didn't win it all, but a + day is always better than a - day. Should the game go under, like last night, I am happy that I only lost half of what I would have lost. And then there is always the chance of a middle. If it were a 1 or 2 point possibility, such as winning if the total was between 44 and 46, I probably would not consider a middle. But in this case, you have 8 point lying out there where you would win on any of the 8. That is huge, and too good of an opportunity to pass up. Some think that taking the under would be hedging, and therefore, a chicken move. But I think it's only hedging if you are laying off some or most of your original bet, and don't have a potential middle. That was not the situation last night if you had the over. If you took the under 21.5 halftime line, to me, it's attempting to middle, and is typically and most of the time always a wise play in my mind, so long as you have room to work in the middle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted October 16, 2007 Share Posted October 16, 2007 I stayed with my NYG -3 and was rewarded. A good week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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