27 replies to this topic

[Crazysight]

Does anyone have an idea why his numbers are so down this year?

[TheShiznit]

Crazysight, on 10/14/07 11:19pm, said:

Does anyone have an idea why his numbers are so down this year?

Bulluck and Mike Peterson must have a pact on who can disappoint more this year!

[Crazysight]

Peterson is at least returning from injury...Bullock I have no idea about.

[Fatman]

I was wondering the same thing...

[Crazysight]

He's averaged over 100 solo tackles the last 5 years.  Through 5 games this year he has only 19.

[Fatman]

I know that Haynesworth is making a lot of tackles so far this year...I would have to assume that it's part of it.

[Sgt. Ryan]

Tenn  defense isnt on the field as much.

[stokers]

I was wondering the same thing about Bulluck.   I'm thinking about trying to trade him or Brackett for a db.
Very dissapointed in Bulluck this year.

[keggerz]

i am crunching some stats but its gonna take me a bit

[keggerz]

I have a ton of data and now have to figure out how best to format it

Here are just a few snippets of info:

Based on # of defensive plays:
2007: 287 rank 29th, Bulluck Fantasy Ranking: 58th
2006: 1062 rank 1st, Bulluck Fantasy Ranking: 4th
2005: 960 rank 27th Bulluck Fantasy Ranking: 5th
2004: 977 rank 22nd Bulluck Fantasy Ranking: 2nd
2003: 926 rank 30th Bulluck Fantasy Ranking: 3rd

Edited by keggerz, 15 October 2007 - 03:04 PM.

[keggerz]

EDIT: Sorry everyone but i pulled all the analysis because i want to test a few things and just in case something needs to be tweaked I dont want to have a faulty analysis posted.

Edited by keggerz, 19 October 2007 - 04:55 PM.

[keggerz]

I still hope that we will see Bulluck start to put up better numbers(even though the numbers dont bear that out) but that could be because I am a slightly distraught bulluck owner.

Edited by keggerz, 17 October 2007 - 11:21 AM.

[mhayhurst]

Great analysis keggerz! I took Bulluck early and I've been really disappointed in his production this year. Your explanation opens my eyes a bit. What to do with Bulluck, I mean you can't cut him, but who's going to trade for him. Production talks. Thanks again for the insight.

[stokers]

Fletcher is on the waiver wire and I'm sitting 4th on the list.  Is it worth dropping Bulluck and giving up my spot on the wire to get Fletcher?

[Footballjoe]

Sgt. Ryan, on 10/15/07 2:00pm, said:

Tenn  defense isnt on the field as much.

I was thinking the same thing. The Titans run the ball a lot, therefore the clock keeps ticking. The Titans have also played well this season so the D gets off the field. If you notice the other stud defensivse players on the team, their numbers are way down as well.

[keggerz]

Footballjoe, on 10/16/07 8:26am, said:

I was thinking the same thing. The Titans run the ball a lot, therefore the clock keeps ticking. The Titans have also played well this season so the D gets off the field. If you notice the other stud defensivse players on the team, their numbers are way down as well.

i was thinking the exact same thing until i dug into the numbers.  If  you look at the numbers i posted above you will see that Bulluck has been a top IDP producer in the past with limited opportunities....this yr that doesnt seem to be the case and if you look at his production per minute you will see a very straight forward decrease in his productivity over the past 4 years....as a bulluck owner i say

[keggerz]

fwiw I plan on looking at a few other IDP LBs to see what PPS shows for their production too

[TheShiznit]

keggerz, on 10/16/07 11:00am, said:

fwiw I plan on looking at a few other IDP LBs to see what PPS shows for their production too

Could you do this for Mike Peterson!!!  LOL

[keggerz]

TheShiznit, on 10/16/07 3:36pm, said:

Could you do this for Mike Peterson!!!  LOL

i am in the midst of doing zach thomas and was then going to do demeco ryans....i guess I could do it for peterson but it does take a bit to mine the stats

[Footballjoe]

I may be wrong but I think you could think clearer and your research would go much faster if you stopped banging your head so much.  

[rajncajn]

If you're going to do it then you should give an example of a MLB that is playing well. Good analysis as usual though, but I'm not so sure it's still not just a matter of them being on the field less. How does the D-line factor into this as well. By comparison are they getting more stops than in years past and therefore limiting his productivity?

[kingfish247]

rajncajn, on 10/17/07 9:24am, said:

... but I'm not so sure it's still not just a matter of them being on the field less. How does the D-line factor into this as well. By comparison are they getting more stops than in years past and therefore limiting his productivity?

I checked this one out...

Titans defensive 3rd down percentage allowed, % and rank...
2003-28, 1st
2004-33, 6th
2005-36, 8th
2006-41, 19th
2007-38, 11th

Titans defensive TOP allowed, time and rank...
2003-27:08, 2nd
2004-28:26, 4th
2005-28:47, 8th
2006-32:51, 32nd
2007-26:28, 4th

So Bulluck's best years came when the Titans D were on the field the least amount of time AND allowing a lower 3rd down conversion rate.

Maybe he's just getting old or Fisher has done something different with the schemes over the years.  

[Sgt. Ryan]

SO much goes into this.  The play of the MLB, the defensive line up front, the TOP, teams running away from him, and on and on and on.   So crunching numbers dont come close to telling the whole story.

TOP of another team isnt always the best indication either, as if teams are behind, they are throwing more, even if it takes time off the clock.  When Tenn is trailing, teams run on them late, to salt the clock.  So The Titans having the lead late affects his stats more than TOP

Edited by Sgt. Ryan, 17 October 2007 - 11:59 AM.

[The Wolf]

There is a lot of work that goes into the analysis Keggerz posted above...kudos to you man.  I'd never think of looking at it this way, much less being able to crunch all the numbers.  

I'd like to review later on myself and try an example to see how this works and see if we can find patterns in former players...I'd imagine that there is some way to apply this to offensive players as well.

[Sgt. Ryan]

Bulluck is in coverage more this yr than in yrs past. I couldnt believe how many times he dropped back this past week. Probably a reason he has so many INT from his LB position.