Week 7 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

My personal (posted) plays this year:

 

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 4-0

Week 4: 3-1

Week 5: 2-2-1

Week 6: 3-2-1

 

Overall: 19-6-2

(Including leans and not played: 22-7-2)

 

I don't like seeing 2 losses in back to back weeks, so we'll see what I can do about it this week. As I said, I will have some more time to post hopefully for at least the next couple of weeks, if not longer. With that said, onto some things for Week 7...

Edited October 16, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

Please change title to week 7 - copy and paste got me again. Thanks.

[Steeltown Dre]

Bye Weeks:

 

We've got some good trends for bye weeks that I like to look at when capping for the week. All stats/trends go back to 2002, when the restructuring occurred.

 

#1: If a team is favored by 6.5 points or more and playing the last game prior to a bye, they are 27-1 SU and 24-4 ATS.

 

So far this season we are 2-0 w/ this trend. We have Dal -9 vs Min and Sea -9 vs StL this week. As with all trends, don't just blindly take both teams without looking at the games. This trend is remarkably solid, but it's not 300-0 ATS. It's going to lose sometime, maybe this week, maybe not. But it's doing well, so definitely don't ignore it.

 

#2: If a team is a Road Fav and coming off a bye, they are 18-9 ATS (67%).

 

So far this year we've gone 2-1. This week we have Pit -3.5 at Den and Ind -3 at Jac. One thing to look at is individual team history. I took Phi last week and not Cin (those were the 2 teams who fit the system) as Reid had the Eagles go 5-1 ATS since 02, whereas Marvin Lewis had the Bengals go 0-3 since 2004. Pit has gone 2-3 off a bye since 2002, but that was under Cowher, not Tomlin. Since 2002 under Cowher, the Steelers went 40-37 ATS. Under Tomlin this year they have gone 4-1. So we can't put too much stock on the team history here. As for the Colts, they have gone 2-3 also since 2002. So nothing too strong there. But note, the Over has gone 5-0 in those games for the Colts. Remember, this trend is averaging 2-1, so it won't win all of the time. But it is interesting that these teams are going 67% ATS whereas RF not off a bye have been going 48% over that same span.

 

#3: If a team is a Home Fav and coming off a bye, they are 39-25 ATS (61%)

 

This year we've gone 1-2, so below 500. Only one play this week, Det -1 vs TB. Det has gone 3-2 ATS since 2002 off a bye, but under Marinelli they have gone 2-0 ATS. Early action on this game has come in on Det.

 

I'll pass along another trend that I saw elsewhere but I'm hesitant to go overboard on. Home Favs of 3 points or less off a bye have seen the O/U go 9-41 (82% Unders). This takes it back all the way to 1989 however. Since the restructuring, it has gone 4-9 (69%). Compared to Home Favs of 3 points or less not off a bye, their Under has gone 52%. So it's definitely showing 17% more towards the Under. But the sample size is pretty small. However, it can play into your thinking for the Det/TB game if you want to consider it.

 

Those are some bye week trends and facts. I'll try to update these as the weeks progress, and let you know if there are any more plays. One thing to remember, these trends should compliment your standard capping, not override it.

[Steeltown Dre]

One thing I failed to mention w/ the Pit/Den game. Den is also coming off a bye and is 4-1 ATS off their bye since 2002. However, they were always favored in those games.

 

This game is huge, because it marks the first time since 2002 that Den is a home dog! In 2002 they were 3 point home dogs to STL and won the game.

 

Even more strange: Under Shanahan, Denver has only been home dogs 4 times. They are 3-0-1 ATS, beating Oak as a 3 point dog in 1995, 27-0; beating GB as a 3 point dog in 1999 31-10, losing but pushing as a 3 point dog to Min in 1999, and the game I mentioned in 2002 to STL where Den won as 3 point dogs 23-16.

 

On average, they covered the spread by 16 points in those 4 games.

 

So, why has Den rarely been made home dogs? Well #1 is they've had a decent team. Since 95 they have had 1 losing season (1999) and had double digit wins in 7 of those 12 seasons. #2 is the mistique of "Mile High Stadium". But what is that mistique?

 

They had 3 undefeated 8-0 seasons at Mile High in 1996-1998 before moving to their new stadium in 2000, where they started off w/ a 6-2 record. Since (and including) 2000, they have gone 6-2 at home in 4 seasons. One season they went 5-3. In 2005 they went 8-0 before the Steelers beat them in the AFCCG. A lot changed after that loss to the Steelers. Last season was their first non-winning season at home, going just 4-4. This season they have started 1-2.

 

Since 2000, Den has won 71% of its home games. That's puts them in a tie for 4th w/ the Steelers, and behind NE, Indy and Bal.

 

But how have they done ATS?

 

Although 4th in the league in SU wins at home, they have only covered 44% of their games at home since 2000. That ranks 25th in the league. And it's the largest difference in the NFL over that time period (27% difference). (Ind had 25% difference, covering half their home games but winning 75%.)

 

We know Pit has no care for the allure of playing at Mile High. But we know Den is a proud team and coming off a bye, they have been great. Being an underdog, they have been equally great. I think this line is a fair line, considering how Den has played at home recently, and their poor tendancy to cover at home.

 

Since most gamblers don't see Den + points at home, I think you'll see them gobble up the +3.5 and it will be +3 very soon. So if you want the Steelers, I'd wait. If you want the Broncos, get the points now. In fact, Pinny opened at -3.5 -104 and now it's at -3.5 +106. Showing that early action is on Den. This should be an exciting game on SNF and I'll keep researching my angles.

[Trots]

Originally I leaned toward Denver in this matchup, but if they can't stop the run - how can they possibly win? Turnovers, one of Big Ben's bad games, etc? I think that I will just watch it and root for the Broncos.

[Steeltown Dre]

I'm seeing 88% on Pit and 12% on Den in terms of # of bets. It seems that the heavy money is coming in on Den, however.

[Steeltown Dre]

What sources do you use to compile number of bets on each side? Do you just pick up the phone and call each book?

 

There are websites out there. The books that contribute to any %s I post for the most part are BetUs.com, CaribSports.com, SportBet.com and Sportsbook.com. A regular book in Vegas will not usually give out that info, but I do know a couple locals who will tell me if they are heavy on one side or another. They don't really care, because they need to lay it off anyhow. So if they told me they've taken in 34 bets on Den and only 9 on Pit, then they won't usually mind if I take Pit, because they want to reduce their exposure. That way they can reduce it without moving the line as much, and therefore, reduce middle opportunities.

[Steeltown Dre]

Is it's inconceivable that an internet site could put whatever numbers up they want?

 

Not when its a reputable pay site. Also, my opinion is that if anyone plays any game based just on one factor, such as public % only, they are not doing a thorough job of capping. I think it's important to take everything into consideration.

[wildcat2334]

Dre - not to bust balls at all- b/c I love the thread and info- and value your picks, and look for insight every week. The only reason why I rememeber b/c after betting on Sat, and not being as confident in the NFL- I was desperately looking for some solid picks early Sunday b/c I thought the card was so tough to pick..............

 

Last week were your posted plays not 1-2-1? thought you were leaning towards Bal and Phil was a no play?

[Steeltown Dre]

Dre - not to bust balls at all- b/c I love the thread and info- and value your picks, and look for insight every week. The only reason why I rememeber b/c after betting on Sat, and not being as confident in the NFL- I was desperately looking for some solid picks early Sunday b/c I thought the card was so tough to pick..............

 

Last week were your posted plays not 1-2-1? thought you were leaning towards Bal and Phil was a no play?

 

I posted:

 

So final plays for now: KC, Mia, Hou, Ten

 

May throw in Bal as well. Not because I like playing such large favs, but because I see a high line for no reason, and it's driven the public onto STL. Philly is a no play for now, but we'll see how things shake down the next 20 mins...

 

I ended up playing both.

[i_am_the_swammi]

Dre - not to bust balls at all- b/c I love the thread and info- and value your picks, and look for insight every week. The only reason why I rememeber b/c after betting on Sat, and not being as confident in the NFL- I was desperately looking for some solid picks early Sunday b/c I thought the card was so tough to pick..............

 

Last week were your posted plays not 1-2-1? thought you were leaning towards Bal and Phil was a no play?

 

At 12:26 on Sunday, he was iffy....then at 12:46, he was questioning why BAL was a 10-point favorite He must have decided to play them in that last 16 minutes.

 

On the heels of this post, posters should post their plays before the games starts. We get quite a few in these threads that state they are thinking about playing a game, then all the sudden when that play wins, they state they were on it.

 

Post your plays prior to the Sunday early games, so we can track true records. It adds to your credibility when you post you like a side before that side actually covers.

 

We all like rooting through the info and prognostications, and this weekly thread is valauble to those that can use the info....so no offense to anyone.

 

But I am with Wildcat on this.

[Steeltown Dre]

I made both plays about 5 minutes before kickoff. I didn't come back in here until after the 4pm games. I'm posting my true plays that I make. My goal w/ this thread is to help everyone make money. It really won't help you make money if I post that I am taking Bal 5 minutes before kickoff - that does you no good. Now, may it help you w/ a decision if I post that I am contemplating taking Bal and reasons why 20 mins before kick? Maybe, more of a chance than me posting it at 1pm.

 

Again, I am here to study, learn from your input, and contribute. I do very well for myself over the last few years, I don't need a forum to track every single play. If you've seen me under various alises at other forums, you know that I post to contribute knowledge and gain insight. I'm not really into trying to be a flashy tout, talking about my picks like they are golden, much like some do at sites I've seen. I'll try to give you as much warning as to the plays I make. If you've seen me last year, you know I like to play live betting very often and also take 2nd half lines, in attempt to get great value and/or middle. So those plays don't get posted. But if I'm talking about 2 teams who I may take, or who I'm considering or contemplating, and then end up taking them, I'll tack them onto my "Thehuddle" record. Again, I'll try to give as much notice as possible in the future. I hope we're all here to make money and help each other.

 

I don't like it when I see someone railing another guy for having a "tough week". No need for that on here. Everyone will have a tough week. None of us benefit from having another huddler lose $. So we shouldn't take enjoyment or comment when they do. That's just my opinion.

[Steeltown Dre]

Some piece is coming on ESPN about a "guy who rocked vegas". Just giving you a heads. I'm in the mist of a workout but will dvr it, and hope it's a good show.

[rattsass]

I for one enjoy each and every post that Dre puts up in this thread, and I appreciate the time and effort that he puts into handicapping games.

 

I do not care if he bets a game without telling us beforehand. He is not bound to tell us anything of his plays. I have made last minute plays many times without running to the message baords to alert the group.

 

The purpose of this thread is not to have a handicapping contest, or pump our chests when we are right, or denegrate others when they are wrong. Dre started these threads to share ideas, picks, and as a format for him to give us some pretty valuable information that we all can use.

 

I agree it is in bad form to pull the "rough day" card. The only thing worse than a "rough day" is having some nimrod rub your nose in it. We all have rough days. We all have good days. I went 0-3 Sunday, but 2-0 Sunday night - Monday and saved my ass.

 

Losing at gambling is its own punishment. I don't like to see people lose money. And I certainly don't feel the need to call them out for further humiliation when they do. The only reason I post picks here is that I have won money several years in a row in the NFL, and I have no problem sharing my plays with the group. I'm sure Dre posts for the same reason.

 

Dre is one of the last people whose integrity I would question on these boards. If he says he made a play I believe him.

 

Carry on.

[Steeltown Dre]

Thanks Ratt. You hit the nail on the head - I'm not here for a contest, just posting my record as part of the weekly routine. Win, lose or draw, my record is what it is. But I can feel for the guys who want an honest accounting of the "posted plays", and feel I didn't come out and spell it out. And considering my purpose of trying to help out everyone and get help from everyone, I'll post my thoughts on games as early as I can, and post my plays as soon as I can as well. Again, as I said last week, my schedule has been extremely hectic up through last week. This week my life is finally back to normal. I've already got some good ideas and more research I'm going to do tomorrow and post up in the thread. Some new ways to read info from my personal system, and some more trends for some of these games.

 

I'm liking a few of these games, and I hope that you all have some great thoughts on them as well. I'm the first one who can say he's been disappointed w/ my record the past 2 weeks, so you can bet I'll be doing my best to picking some solid winners this week and increasing my accounts. Let's get them back this week.

 

Also w/ regard to Ratt and several other of the regulars in these threads, I think since my time has been so limited I have not had as much time as I would like to comment on your thoughts/ideas/posts. Hopefully that will change this week and onwards. Again, I want all of us to have winning days and weeks and into the playoffs. I visit many forums and see a lot of guys who do the whole "better than you" routine, and some who don't, and every place I look, I find peoplel ridiculing the successful guys when they stumble. I don't want that to happen here - the guys who are in this thread are pretty sharp and know better than that. OK, back to the numbers...

[Gdawg]

This is one of my favorite threads, each and every week. There's a LOT of good information here, and I value the opinions of all you guys, especially the regulars. I'm also grateful for the hard work and research that goes into the posts.

 

Having said that, let's not forget why we're all here, to beat THE MAN

[i_am_the_swammi]

I didn't realize this was a kissy-huggy thread. We all like to give each other a ittle "rub" from time to time, and its all in good fun. Look back at the Week 3 thread, when Menudo was giving me grief for picking the Eagles a couple weeks (since they are my home team)...I gave it right back to him. No big deal.

 

Similarly last night, Rat gave me a "rough night" post, and I responded with a friendly wink. No offense taken.

 

I'm not sure where this thread got so sensitive, that we couldn't give each other the business from time to time. I've posted on this thread for two years since its inception by Dre, and never was it a place where we couldn't learn and have a little fun with each other.

 

Oh well....carry on.

[Lucky11]

not that it matters, but i was 0-3 last week and chased Sunday night with a the Saints +6 and the over...got a little back with that one. but overall, i was not even close.

 

i'm glad there's a thread(s) like this floating around here, the more info and discussion the better.

 

keep it up.

 

just glancing at the early lines and i like:

 

DET -2.5

BUF +3

NE -17 (i'm just gonna ride the Pats until they stop killing other teams)

 

also intriguing are:

 

DEN +3.5

SF/NYG under 39.5

Edited October 17, 2007 by Lucky11

[rattsass]

I got in early this week, because when I saw the posted numbers a couple were just screaming at me.

 

Detroit -1.5 I see the line has moved a full point already

 

Washington -7 Again the line has already moved to 8

 

New England -17 I remember laying points like this in some 80s Superbowls, but never dreamed I would be doing it in the age of "parity."

 

Also took the Steelers -3 (bought the hook)

 

May add more later, but I really like these.

[Steeltown Dre]

OK, back to the system this morning. As I said above, I do make many plays that I don't post. A large majority of these plays come from my systems. Again, these won't get counted into my record. But, in an effort to better lay out my systems in front of you, and to generate discussion, I'll post more of my system than I have in the past.

 

First, let's look at the ATS models. Then I will get into some other reads from combinations within the system.

 

Top ATS predictor has gone 6-3 this season and has no selections this weekend.

 

Since my top predictor has not selected any top games the past 2 weekends, I will post the record of the top 5 leans each week (Started the simulator Week 3):

 

Week 3: 4-1

Week 4: 5-0

Week 5: 2-3

Week 6: 3-2

 

Total 14-6 (70%)

 

For week 7, the top 5 leans are:

 

Was

NYG

Phi

Sea

Pit

 

I have one ATS simulator that is pretty honest, and one that is more biased towards the dogs. I keep track of when both simulators show value for the same team. This system has gone 16-9 ATS so far (64%).

 

Here are the teams that both ATS simulators show some value for:

 

ATL

Buf

TB

NYJ

Pit

Jac

 

I have also tracked when I have seen the wrong team favored. In other words, times when my system is showing the dog could actually win the game. In some cases, the dog does win, in other cases he covers, and then of course, there are times he fails to cover.

 

Here's how those picks have gone:

 

Week 3: Hou over Indy (ATS and SU Loss), GB over SD (ATS and SU Win), ATL over Car (ATS and SU Loss), Ten over NO (ATS and SU win). 2-2 ATS, 2-2 SU

Week 4: Cle over Bal (ATS and SU Win), Det over Chi (ATS and SU Win), Buf tie w/ NYJ (ATS win and SU Loss), NYG over Phi (ATS and SU win). 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU

Week 5: KC over Jac (ATS and SU Loss), SF over Bal (ATS win and SU Loss). 1-1 ATS, 0-2 SU

Week 6: KC over Cin (ATS and SU Win). 1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU

 

Summary: 8-3 ATS, 6-5 SU

 

Even a below .500 record SU can net you solid profits if you are taking dogs on the moneyline.

 

This week here's the games the system is showing the wrong team is favored:

 

Buf over Bal

TB over Det

Jac over Ind

 

____________________________________________

 

 

Now, onto the O/U Systems:

 

Top Overs predictor has gone 7-0 this season and is selecting Ari/Was Over this weekend. I also have another Overs predictor which is 11-3 (79%) this season and is also picking Ari/Was Over.

 

I run a couple Overs simulators and a couple Unders simulators. They track plays which have only slight leans. These are not as strong of plays as my "Play on" sytems which are 7-0 and 11-3, however, they have been pretty good so far w/ their leans, and I will occasionally play one or more of the leans.

 

The best Overs simulator has gone 19-9 this season (68%). Here are all Overs leans for this weekend:

Ari/Was

Bal/Buf

Ten/Hou

Oak/KC

 

The best Unders simulator has gone 23-13 (64%). Here are all Unders leans for this weekend:

Atl/NO

NE/Mia

TB/Det

Cin/NYJ

Chi/Phi

StL/Sea

 

When I combine these 2 simulators and compare each game, there are times that even the Over simulator has a lean to the Under, and sometimes even the Unders simulator has a lean to the Over. When both simulators lean to the same side, I have tracked those plays. There have been 32 times this season it has happened, and the record has been 22-10 (69%).

 

Here are the leans for this weekend on those plays:

Atl/NO Under

TB/Det Under

Cin/NYJ Under

StL/Sea Under

 

_______________________________________________

 

So, what does this all mean? Well, that's what I spend the majority of my time figuring out. The systems look at the games without bias. Combines numbers of factors and not just on-the-field stats. But what it does not account for are injuries, team momentum, trades and the like. It also does not take into account long term ATS records (it only uses this season), so if a team is dominant at home or terrible in a dome, it does not factor that in. Theoretically, all of that is already considered when Vegas sets the line. However, a lot of lines are shaded towards public opinion. So for instance, if the public knows and ESPN keeps blabbing about Farve being terrible in a dome, then that is going to be reflected in the line. But if you come up w/ an angle that isn't really reported to the public and the public is pretty unaware of it (I'm talking general public, not intelligent bettors or very knowledgable fans) then most likely it does not factor as much into the line.

 

The easiest plays to look at are some of these Unders I just listed. The system does not really know that NO just got itself together last week and is looking better on offense. It does not know that St. Louis has lost player after player. That can sometimes be a good thing, but most of the time, it needs to be considered and assesed before placing a bet.

 

Anyhow, these are things I've been working on the past few years and have had very good success playing certain selections from here as well as playing independent games (which sometimes spring from system numbers and sometimes not). As you know, the beginning of the year I was making all my plays without the system and was doing pretty well. But the system has hit a profitable percentage since I started using it, and I'll continue to play games that it generates, but always will look past the numbers and do my own analysis on top. Hope some of this is helpful to you this week. Of course, remember that some weeks this thing does not win, and some weeks it does very well. While we try to win every single day and week, sometimes we will take a step or two back, but always will rebound w/ 5 steps forward. That's the nature of this habit/past time/profession.

[Gdawg]

With regard to BAL@BUF, I completely agree Dre, the wrong team is favored. The O line is terribly banged up, Heap probably won't play, and now word has come out this morning in Baltimore that Chris McCallister will miss this game (and possibly three or more games) with a knee injury. With Samari Rolle still battling illness and unable to go full time, BAL will be without both starting corners.

 

BUF +3 is the way to go.

[Steeltown Dre]

I've got the next article written up and graphics ready to go. I think it will be a very helpful article, it's entitled:

 

Perception of Home Field Advantage vs. ATS results

 

Only problem: the google blog site I usually post these things to (and upload the .bmp images) is not allowing me to upload images, and it's been a problem for them for a week.

 

Anyone know of a site I can host these images so at least I can provide a target link to them? Thanks is advance.

[Steeltown Dre]

Some piece is coming on ESPN about a "guy who rocked vegas". Just giving you a heads. I'm in the mist of a workout but will dvr it, and hope it's a good show.

 

This was just a piece on Dr. Bob. Pretty much everyone knew this info for a year or two, so Rachel Nichols did a really lame job of trying to come up w/ a breaking story when it was old news. But I guess the non-betting public didn't know. Anyhow, the stigma w/ Dr. Bob is that he is best in college football and just average in the NFL. If it would be of interest to any, I can try to go back through his 2007 picks and track his record for both Pro and College. In the piece, he claimed to hit 64% (I think) of his college plays last year. I don't know if it's true or not, but I can at least look at his 2007 plays if you want.

[wildcat2334]

This was just a piece on Dr. Bob. Pretty much everyone knew this info for a year or two, so Rachel Nichols did a really lame job of trying to come up w/ a breaking story when it was old news. But I guess the non-betting public didn't know. Anyhow, the stigma w/ Dr. Bob is that he is best in college football and just average in the NFL. If it would be of interest to any, I can try to go back through his 2007 picks and track his record for both Pro and College. In the piece, he claimed to hit 64% (I think) of his college plays last year. I don't know if it's true or not, but I can at least look at his 2007 plays if you want.

 

 

saw it- not a bad piece - since it was aimed at Joe public who doesn't have any gambling knowledge- I had Dr. Bob's pics in NCAA for a couple years- but unfortunately I really didn't know he was legit. I think most decent cappers clean up more in the NCAA's- just more games, and spots to gain an edge IMO.

 

off topic a bit, but a good NCAA service I have used hit their Big 10 GOY an incredible 17/20 years- and at their peak where effecting the Vegas line by as much as a

4-6 point movement, it was insane. The game his again this year with Illinois over Wisky..............

 

The main guy since moved on, and it isn't as solid anymore- but they had an incredible run in the 90's.

 

ok, back to the NFL

[Steeltown Dre]

Figured out another site to upload the photos. They appear somewhat fuzzy but if you hold your cursor over the picture, you can enlarge it to full size.

 

Perception of Home Field Advantage vs. ATS results

as posted here: http://sharpfootballanalysis.blogspot.com/

 

Like it or not, for the most part, the "dumb betting public" views each team based on what they have seen from them lately, and their W/L record. The public has also been influenced by ESPN and other media to believe that certain teams are simply better at home or on the road.

 

Think of what you have heard... how hard it is to play at Mile High Stadium in Denver. How intimidating it is for teams to travel and play in the Black Hole out in Oakland. Other places that seem to hold a great home field advantage, such as the noise from the "12th man" in Quest Field in Seattle. The heat down in Miami in September/early October. What about KC, the frozen tundra of Lambeau, or the domes in NO, ATL, STL, Min, Det?

 

Well, I hope this article will shed some light as to which teams really do have a home field advantage, and which really do not. Therein, which teams win at home, and which teams do not. Even more important, which teams COVER at home and which do not.

 

And then we'll take it even further, and examine which teams have sustained success on the road, vs. those teams who can't quite cut it in games away from home.

 

In each scenario, I looked at how a team has done the last 5 years, and then also broke out this current year. Although this current year is young and less than halfway through, it is still interesting to see if a certain team has reversed its fortunes or has continued along the same path.

 

Home Teams ATS

 

http://img37.picoodle.com/img/img37/6/10/1...ATm_2c54dda.png

 

The Ravens have been solid at home ATS, but somewhat suprising that they are tops in the NFL over this 5 year span. Not really known for a huge home field advantage compared to some other clubs. You do have a couple Florida teams up there in Jac and TB, but the rest are pretty much the tops in the NFL in terms of solid teams the last few years: NE, Pit... KC is known for its home field advantage and it shows based on their ATS at home. Dal, though not near as dominant in the NFC the last few years (the past couple aside) still has covered well at home.

 

What's most interesting is the teams that are poor. NO, ATL and Oak are at the bottom. 2 dome teams and the Black Hole. Perhaps too much emphasis has been made in the line on their home field advantage, or at least in the public's mind, and really there is not much advantage for those teams at home. Some good teams over the last few years like Car, NYG and Cin also don't show up as much at home. But the biggest suprise is Denver. I'll get into them more after I show the next chart.

 

This is the same chart from above, but sorted by the column "SU-ATS". Basically, it shows which teams UNDERPERFORMED at home ATS but still managed good SU records. And similarly, which teams are known for losing at home, yet have solid ATS records.

 

http://img28.picoodle.com/img/img28/6/10/1...dHm_49749da.png

 

As you can see from this chart, Den has the largest discrepancy in the NFL in terms of home games won vs. home games covered in the NFL. That could be in part because since 2002, they have only been home dogs one time, this weekend to Pittsburgh! I couldn't believe it at first, but it is true. They have never been home dogs since their 2002 Week 1 matchup w/ the Rams.

 

At any rate, their "home field" advantage has been played up far to much in the media and has caused bettors to lose out on $ far to long now. Let's look at the next offender (you have to skip Ind, KC, NE and Pit, because they are only up so high since they have such a large SU win %. They still cover 50% or much better ATS at home.)

 

Seattle, GB and St. Louis. 3 teams that have a supposed great home field advantage. While their SU records have been great, they don't get the cover in most cases. Lastly is Miami. Teams have to fly down to the tip of the Country in the heat to play them, but Miami just does not get the covers at home like you would think, whereas some other Florida teams do. In fact, even looking at the limited data from this season, you'll find that the only team above .500 ATS at home from this group in red has been GB.

 

Moving from the bad to the good, at the bottom are teams who may not win many home games, but have done very well in covering the past 5 years. And in fact, look over to 2007 and you'll see that none of these teams are below .500. Many have continued that stellar ATS at home this year.

 

With that look at how teams have done at home, let's move along to teams that are great or terrible on the road.

 

Road Teams ATS

 

http://img37.picoodle.com/img/img37/6/10/1...ATm_d33c055.png

 

It should be to no one's suprise that NE has been at the top of the league in road covers. 69% though is a huge number above and beyond the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place clubs. What is equally suprising, after studying the poor home teams, is the number of teams "in the red" who were bad at home covers are "in the green" with great road covers. The list includes Car, NO, ATL and Cin. Even GB, which was good at winning home games but poor at covering, is "in the green". It should be no suprise that 2 of the powerhouses in the AFC join NE "in the green": Indy and SD.

 

Let's look at the poor teams on the road. Try considering the entire NFC West as teams that don't cover well on the road. Ari, STL, ST, and Sea's right there too at 44%. The Raiders have just been bad, they can't get it done at home or on the road. Then a couple teams who play in extreme environments: Chi and TB. Chi plays a lot of road games in domes, as does TB, so that could factor in.

 

Getting back to good teams to bet on, this next chart is the same as the road teams chart, but it is sorted by "SU-ATS". This will show us teams on the road who win a lot but don't cover, and likewise, those that lose a lot but do cover.

 

http://img28.picoodle.com/img/img28/6/10/1...edm_24f354e.png

 

First, the teams that are at the top, showing they "win a lot but don't cover" is not very meaningfull. Most of these teams landed here simply because they won so many SU that even if they have just above a .500 ATS on the road, it's not as great as their SU win %. But at the top, you find perhaps the top 4 teams since 2002 in the NFL. From the AFC you have Indy, NE and Pit. And from the NFC: Philly.

 

Moving down to numbers we can use: teams in the green don't win at a high rate on the road, but do bring a game usually, and pull off a suprising % of covers than you may expect. Det only has won 16% of its road games, but covered 44% of them. Houston, Cleveland, Buffalo are 3 other relatively "poor" teams who have done better than average on the road. Same w/ Washington and Cincy.

 

So there you have it. A look at which teams really do have a home field advantage, and which do not. And a look at which teams have got the job done on the road for bettors, even if they didn't win SU. These are the type of charts I print and refer to each and every week as I see the lines spit out from Vegas, and hear the talking heads blabbing about "poor weak Cleveland heading into the menacing Black Hole", or Denver's Mile High Stadium, or the "12th man" in Seattle.

 

You can keep talking up the hype, ESPN, trying to generate ratings. I'll keep my mouth shut and keep on winning.