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Week 7 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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I hate giving up points, but I am leaning towards DAL -9, possibly buying them down. Any thoughts?

 

I like it! Vikes will be without Dwight Smith, which will create some holes and the Cowboys will exploit them immediately and often.

 

Also should be a long day for Tarvaris.......actually should be a long day for the whole Vikes team in general.

Edited by Mojo Rising
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Im not sure if you guys get lines on this or consider it valid plays in this thread but I like to play the team total over/unders a lot..Today I like the Rams over 14.5 against the Hawks

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Im not sure if you guys get lines on this or consider it valid plays in this thread but I like to play the team total over/unders a lot..Today I like the Rams over 14.5 against the Hawks

 

Team totals are good ways to make money, especially in certain situations.

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Brandon Lang

 

SUNDAY

IMPORTANT NOTE

 

I made a MAJOR mistake when entering my selections today.

 

When I originally posted my plays, I had as my second 20 Dime teaser the following:

 

Bengals - Reduce the price of the favorite

Eagles - Reduce the price of the favorite

 

Now, that is what I wanted you to play.

 

But, when I returned and later put in my analysis, for some stupid, stupid reason, I told you to use the 6 points and reduce the total of the Cincy-Jets game and then play the over. Truth be told, that was going to be the original part of the teaser but more I thought about the game, I just thought there was no way that Cincy loses at home to a Jets team that has no pass defense and that Carson Palmer just shreds a NY defense that has six sacks the entire season.

 

My problem is that some of you returned to the site and saw two different teasers. Being stupid and making a careless mistake is one thing but I cannot foresake my integrity.

 

If you're reading this for the FIRST time, I want you to play the teaser as follows:

 

Bengals - Reduce the price of the favorite

Eagles - Reduce the price of the favorite

 

But, understand this - to maintain my integrity, and since some customers so both the correct and incorrect versions, I'm going to force myself to win both the right and wrong teasers in order to collect the 20 dimes of profit. Anything less and I'm taking a loss.

 

 

 

 

 

30 DIME

 

EAGLES

 

20 DIME 6-POINT TEASERS

 

NUMBER 1

Giants - Reduce the price of the favorite

Redskins - Reduce the price of the favorite

 

NUMBER 2

Bengals - Reduce the price of the favorite

Eagles - Reduce the price of the favorite

 

15 DIME

 

Bucs/Lions OVER

 

10 DIME

 

Bills

Dolphins

Chiefs

 

5 DIME

 

Chiefs/Raiders UNDER

Steelers

 

Free Pick - Steelers/Broncos OVER

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For those who like to fade the "public"

 

Right now, from the contributing books, I'm seeing 67% of the Spread and 95% of the ML picks on KC over Oak. The highest ML % of any game this week. It seems no one wants to take Oakland this week. I usually make my plays and do consider public action. I don't typically make a play just because of the public, however. My best system is considering a 4 point Oak win, whereas my underacheiving and underdog system is predicting a KC win.

 

I'm strongly considering an Oak play.

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I rarely put in teasers but just plugged this one in to see what it looks like and might take a shot at it

 

Select #1 : NFL Football for Game

Washington Redskins 10/21/2007 1:00:01 PM - (EST)

Spread +2 for Game

Select #2 : NFL Football for Game

New England Patriots 10/21/2007 1:00:01 PM - (EST)

Spread -5½ for Game

Select #3 : NFL Football for Game

Kansas City Chiefs 10/21/2007 4:05:01 PM - (EST)

Spread +12½ for Game

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Brandon Lang

 

SUNDAY

IMPORTANT NOTE

 

I made a MAJOR mistake when entering my selections today.

 

When I originally posted my plays, I had as my second 20 Dime teaser the following:

 

Bengals - Reduce the price of the favorite

Eagles - Reduce the price of the favorite

 

Now, that is what I wanted you to play.

 

But, when I returned and later put in my analysis, for some stupid, stupid reason, I told you to use the 6 points and reduce the total of the Cincy-Jets game and then play the over. Truth be told, that was going to be the original part of the teaser but more I thought about the game, I just thought there was no way that Cincy loses at home to a Jets team that has no pass defense and that Carson Palmer just shreds a NY defense that has six sacks the entire season.

 

My problem is that some of you returned to the site and saw two different teasers. Being stupid and making a careless mistake is one thing but I cannot foresake my integrity.

 

If you're reading this for the FIRST time, I want you to play the teaser as follows:

 

Bengals - Reduce the price of the favorite

Eagles - Reduce the price of the favorite

 

But, understand this - to maintain my integrity, and since some customers so both the correct and incorrect versions, I'm going to force myself to win both the right and wrong teasers in order to collect the 20 dimes of profit. Anything less and I'm taking a loss.

30 DIME

 

EAGLES

 

20 DIME 6-POINT TEASERS

 

NUMBER 1

Giants - Reduce the price of the favorite

Redskins - Reduce the price of the favorite

 

NUMBER 2

Bengals - Reduce the price of the favorite

Eagles - Reduce the price of the favorite

 

15 DIME

 

Bucs/Lions OVER

 

10 DIME

 

Bills

Dolphins

Chiefs

 

5 DIME

 

Chiefs/Raiders UNDER

Steelers

 

Free Pick - Steelers/Broncos OVER

 

:D:D:wacko:

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I see a lot of people taking the Dolphins and the points. And I just don't understand the logic.

 

I do understand that this is a divisional game in which the Patriots typically struggle. I understand that the Patriots lost this matchup last year.

 

But lets get real. The Dolphins just dumped their best receiver. The Patriots have won every game by 17 or more, including last weeks road spanking of a team far superior to the Dolphins.

 

The Patriots are perfect against the spread despite being huge favorites since week 2.

 

I guess the "sharp" money is on the huge home dog, but I for one won't try to buck the streak.

 

It is insane to lay heavy lumber against any home team. I understand that. But if ther was ever a game to do so, this would be the one. Best of luck to those bucking the trend today.

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Dre, Im hating the skins now.....8 points seem too much to me.......what do u think?

 

Im playing, confidently:

 

Bills +3

Fins +16

Steelers -3.5

Cowboys -9.5

Lions -2.5

 

wish you all luck this week!!!

 

Sometimes it's not as much loving or hating a play, it's finding better value plays on the board. I think the Skins win. I don't know if it will be 8 or more. I think it could be, but like other plays better. I like several of your plays. I'll post mine now.

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I realize I'm going against 2 of the "bye week system plays" as outlined here: http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?s=&a...t&p=2238673

 

So we'll see how that turns out. Also, Mojo - if you already have Was -8, I'd let it ride. I don't like Ari enough to make me advise you to change the pick. It's just that I like some other plays better.

 

Also, just an FYI w/ the Steelers. A very sharp guy is heavily on Den. I happen to like Pit, and it's my play, but I'm not going to go any heavier than normal.

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As usual, thanks for all the hard work, Steeltown Lang :D

 

BTW, I have WAY more faith in you, just a playoff on the Dime system :D

 

GDawg's Picks:

 

DAL -7 (Bought it down)

BUF +3

DET WIN (took moneyline)

BAL/BUF U35

KC +3

PIT -3

 

Going to give the teasers a shot too, Dre. Thanks again!

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And they still have.

 

I put them in for a VERY low wager today (1/2 unit}, mostly because a PATS fan friend of mine talked me into it...about two minutes before kickoff. Man, what a team. Best I've ever seen.

 

I'm headed down to DC country next week, going to bet the Pats and give the points and watch the Foreskin fans cry. I love the tears of unfathomable sadness, oh yeah, bring it on, Redskins lose, I cover, it's a beautiful thing.

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I put them in for a VERY low wager today (1/2 unit}, mostly because a PATS fan friend of mine talked me into it...about two minutes before kickoff. Man, what a team. Best I've ever seen.

 

I'm headed down to DC country next week, going to bet the Pats and give the points and watch the Foreskin fans cry. I love the tears of unfathomable sadness, oh yeah, bring it on, Redskins lose, I cover, it's a beautiful thing.

 

 

Pats will not cover this week...

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Favs: Pitt, Oak

Dogs: Buf, TB, Jac

Teaser: NYG/Was

 

That's my offical card for now... a couple under plays as well.

 

"Officially" went 2-3 yesterday. Knew that Pit game wasn't to be taken lightly, but still thought Pit would get the win. By the looks of it, some of you did very well, like GDawg and Mojo.

 

A couple of my unders hit, as my posted "same side" totals went 3-1:

 

Atl/NO Under

TB/Det Under

Cin/NYJ Under

StL/Sea Under

 

Also my best total which was Was/Ari over did hit, although I only played it lightly (and only after learning that Warner would in fact play). Also, and I can't say it enough, in a SNF game or any big game, I usually will play live betting or halftime betting. At the half, the 2nd half total was 20 points and I also took Pittsburgh to score more than 13 points in the 2nd half. I played both of those and (over) and won both. Live or halftime betting really helps if your initial bet is looking a little injured.

 

I'm going to be out of contact for a few days but will be back on Wednesday w/ some more insights. Still got Jax on tap for tonight. Hope tonight goes better than yesterday for my "official" plays, though overall w/ my Skins/Ari over, 2 unders winning and 1 under losing, and my 2nd half Steelers/Broncos action, I still had an alright (though not nearly as great as some on here) day.

 

Good luck tonight, and if someone has some thoughts to post in the Week 8 thread before Wed, feel free to start it up whenever.

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