Week 8 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

My personal (posted) plays this year:

 

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 4-0

Week 4: 3-1

Week 5: 2-2-1

Week 6: 3-2-1

Week 7: 2-4

 

Overall: 21-10-2

(Including leans and not played: 24-11-2)

 

Very down week for me on my posted plays. Overall finished around .500 for the week, but neither is very good capping. I'll post an update on the bye week trends as well as my system plays, I just wanted this thread to get started since I hadn't started it already.

 

Here's to hoping week 8 is a more profitable week than the last 3 weeks have been.

[Steeltown Dre]

Bye Week Trends:

 

Last week I posted 3 trends which made for 5 plays. The plays went 4-1. I'll post this week's plays:

 

All stats/trends go back to 2002, when the restructuring occurred.

#1: If a team is favored by 6.5 points or more and playing the last game prior to a bye, they are 29-1 SU and 26-4 ATS (87%).

 

So far this season we are 4-0 w/ this trend, including 2 wins last week (Dal and Sea). Only 1 play this week: NYG -9.5 vs. Mia.

 

#2: If a team is a Road Fav and coming off a bye, they are 19-10 ATS (66%).

 

Last week we went 1-1 w/ Ind winning and Pitt losing. That brings it to 3-2 on the season. This week we have Cle -3 at STL.

 

#3: If a team is a Home Fav and coming off a bye, they are 40-25 ATS (62%)

 

Last week we went 1-0 w/ this trend, w/ Dal winning at home. That brings it to 2-2 on the season. This week we have SD-10 vs Hou.

[Steeltown Dre]

System Plays Week 8:

 

1. Top ATS predictor has gone 6-3 this season and has no selections this weekend. (Went 0-0 last weekend)

 

2. Top 5 leans each week:

 

Week 3: 4-1

Week 4: 5-0

Week 5: 2-3

Week 6: 3-2

Week 7: 2-3

 

Total 16-9 (64%)

 

For week 8, the top 5 leans are:

 

Mia

Ten

Pit

Min

NE

 

3. I have one ATS simulator that is pretty honest, and one that is more biased towards the dogs. I keep track of when both simulators show value for the same team. This system has gone 18-13 ATS so far (58%) which includes 2-4 last week.

 

This week both systems show value for:

 

Cle

Det

Mia

Pit

Jac

SF

 

4. I have also tracked when I have seen the wrong team favored. In other words, times when my system is showing the dog could actually win the game. In some cases, the dog does win, in other cases he covers, and then of course, there are times he fails to cover.

 

Here's how those picks have gone:

 

Week 3: Hou over Indy (ATS and SU Loss), GB over SD (ATS and SU Win), ATL over Car (ATS and SU Loss), Ten over NO (ATS and SU win). 2-2 ATS, 2-2 SU

Week 4: Cle over Bal (ATS and SU Win), Det over Chi (ATS and SU Win), Buf tie w/ NYJ (ATS win and SU Loss), NYG over Phi (ATS and SU win). 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU

Week 5: KC over Jac (ATS and SU Loss), SF over Bal (ATS win and SU Loss). 1-1 ATS, 0-2 SU

Week 6: KC over Cin (ATS and SU Win). 1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU

Week 7: Buf over Bal (ATS and SU Win), TB over Det (ATS and SU Loss), Jac over Ind (ATS and SU Loss). 1-2 ATS and 1-2 SU

 

Summary: 9-5 ATS, 7-7 SU

 

Even a below .500 record SU can net you solid profits if you are taking these dogs on the moneyline.

 

This week here's the games the system is showing the wrong team is favored:

 

Min over Philly

 

____________________________________________

 

 

Now, onto the O/U Systems:

 

1. Top Overs predictor has gone 8-0 this season including 1-0 last weekend.

 

This weekend it is selecting TB/Jac Over

 

2. I also have another Overs predictor which is 12-3 (80%) this season including 1-0 last weekend.

 

This weekend it is selecting NE/Was Over

 

3. The best Overs simulator has gone 22-11 this season (67%) including 3-2 last weekend. Here are all Overs leans for this weekend:

 

TB/Jac Over

GB/Den Over

 

4. The best Unders simulator has gone 29-15 (66%) including 6-2 last weekend. Here are all Unders leans for this weekend:

 

Cle/Stl Under

Chi/Det Under

NYG/Mia Under

Pit/Cin Under

Hou/SD Under

TB/Jac OVER (note: sometimes the unders simulator generates an over)

NO/SF Under

 

5. When I combine these 2 simulators and compare each game, there are times that even the Over simulator has a lean to the Under, and sometimes even the Unders simulator has a lean to the Over. When both simulators lean to the same side, I have tracked those plays. There have been 32 times this season it has happened, and the record has been 22-10 (69%) including 4-1 last weekend.

 

This weekend we have:

 

Cle/Stl Under

NYG/Mia Under

SF/NO Under

TB/Jac Over

[Steeltown Dre]

I've seen it menitoned that Jac plays really poor after facing Indy, as they get up for Indy more than any other opponent.

 

I looked back since 2003, when Del Rio became their coach. After facing Indy, they are 2-6 SU and 2-6 ATS, failing to cover on avg by 7 points.

[Steeltown Dre]

ATS Records thru 7 Weeks:

 

Team ATS

1 New England 7-0-0

2 Green Bay 4-1-1

3 Dallas 5-2-0

4 N.Y. Giants 5-2-0

5 Arizona 5-2-0

6 Indianapolis 4-2-0

7 Carolina 4-2-0

8 Pittsburgh 4-2-0

9 Tennessee 4-2-0

10 Cleveland 4-2-0

11 Buffalo 4-2-0

12 Kansas City 4-2-1

13 Detroit 3-2-1

14 Tampa Bay 4-3-0

15 Atlanta 4-3-0

16 Jacksonville 3-3-0

17 Washington 2-2-2

18 San Diego 3-3-0

19 Cincinnati 3-3-0

20 Minnesota 2-2-2

21 Seattle 3-4-0

22 Houston 3-4-0

23 Oakland 2-4-0

24 Philadelphia 2-4-0

25 San Francisco 2-4-0

26 Chicago 2-5-0

27 Miami 1-4-2

28 N.Y. Jets 1-5-1

29 Denver 1-5-0

30 New Orleans 1-5-0

31 Baltimore 1-6-0

32 St. Louis 1-6-0

[i_am_the_swammi]

ATS Records thru 7 Weeks:

 

Team ATS

1 New England 7-0-0

2 Green Bay 4-1-1

3 Dallas 5-2-0

4 N.Y. Giants 5-2-0

5 Arizona 5-2-0

6 Indianapolis 4-2-0

7 Carolina 4-2-0

8 Pittsburgh 4-2-0

9 Tennessee 4-2-0

10 Cleveland 4-2-0

11 Buffalo 4-2-0

12 Kansas City 4-2-1

13 Detroit 3-2-1

14 Tampa Bay 4-3-0

15 Atlanta 4-3-0

16 Jacksonville 3-3-0

17 Washington 2-2-2

18 San Diego 3-3-0

19 Cincinnati 3-3-0

20 Minnesota 2-2-2

21 Seattle 3-4-0

22 Houston 3-4-0

23 Oakland 2-4-0

24 Philadelphia 2-4-0

25 San Francisco 2-4-0

26 Chicago 2-5-0

27 Miami 1-4-2

28 N.Y. Jets 1-5-1

29 Denver 1-5-0

30 New Orleans 1-5-0

31 Baltimore 1-6-0

32 St. Louis 1-6-0

 

Good post....as you and many posters know, by the end of the NFL season, most (I do say MOST) NFL teams are a game or two within .500 ATS. Very rarely are multiple teams way over or way under .500 ATS.

 

That being said, its time to look for value in the teams that only have 1-2 wins ATS, or teams that have 4-5 wins ATS.

 

This week, there are multiple games involving multiple teams at both ends of this list. GB vs. DEN, NYG vs MIA, BUF vs NYJ, TEN vs. OAK, and CLE vs STL stick out.

 

And at first glance, I like all the teams in these match-ups that are struggling ATS: STL, DEN, OAK, MIA and NYJ.

 

I'll post more when I can fully analyze who is playing for each team....Dre, any trends along this line of thinking?

[Steeltown Dre]

A little bit of history regarding the Pats and their unbelievable start:

 

In the history of modern football (dating back almost 20 years) no team has started the season w/ more ATS victories in a row than the Patriots. Here were the closest teams:

 

1994 SD Chargers

Heading into week 8, they were 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS. They had a bye in week 5. In week 8, they lost SU and ATS to Denver. From week 8 onwards, they were 5-5 SU and 5-5 ATS.

 

1999 St. Louis Rams

Heading into week 8, they were 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS. They had a bye in week 2. In week 8, they lost SU and ATS to Tennessee. From week 8 onwards, they were 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS.

 

2003 Minnesota Vikings

Heading into week 8, they were 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS. They had a bye in week 6. In week 8, they lost SU and ATS to the New York Giants. From week 8 onwards, they were 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS.

 

So as you can see, all of these teams had bye weeks to catch their breath along the way, but all of them lost SU and ATS in week 8.

 

New England has had no bye weeks, and the spreads they have been covering have been much larger than any other of these unbeatens (SU and ATS).

 

Belichick seems to have a vendetta against all teams he plays. He seems like he actually is cognisent of the spread. The Pats have been great ATS in every year that they won Superbowls. Since he started coaching the Pats:

 

Season, ATS (# of points they covered the spread)

2007 7-0-0 (12.5) ?

2006 9-6-1 (4.3)

2005 8-8-0 (-1.0)

2004 11-4-1 (4.5) Won SB

2003 13-2-1 (5.3) Won SB

2002 6-10-0 (0.4)

2001 11-5-0 (8.4) Won SB

2000 7-9-0 (-2.0)

 

As you can see, they had some unbelievable records ATS during this period, and each year they won the SB. Since 2000, the Pats have the best ATS in the league at 72-44-3 (62%). 2nd is Pittsburgh at 58%, then Philly at 56% and then Bal at 56%.

 

The thing to think about this week is: Last week the Pats were -16 to -17 point favs in Mia against a 0-6 team who was 1-3-2 ATS at the time.

 

This week they are at home and are now -17 point favs against a 4-2 team who is 2-2-2 ATS.

 

So the question is, is this too high a line to be giving to a 4-2 team? I'm not sure there's an accurate answer. But I can tell you, the public right now is not convinced:

 

Right now 57% of the ATS is on NE and only 43% is on Was. Here's the % (from the books that contribute) on NE in their games:

 

Week 1: NE-6, 75% on NE

Week 2: NE-3, 54% on NE

Week 3: NE-16, 59% on NE

Week 4: NE-7, 73% on NE

Week 5: NE-15, 55% on NE

Week 6: NE-5, 70% on NE

Week 7: NE-15, 62% on NE

 

So as you can see, the public is always riding NE, though not as much in Week 2 vs SD. However, from week 4 onwards, there have been some lopsided numbers in their favor. If the line closed at -16.5 or -17 now, it would be the most points NE has laid thus far from a closing number at the same book as reporting above.

 

The books are desperate to set the line as high as they can to try to get money to come in on the Skins. At -16.5, it's still not high enough. A lot of bettors are taking interest in this game, as more players are picking this game to play than any other game so far in the week. Feel free to drop your thoughts.

[Gdawg]

I'm considering taking NE and giving up the points, just a few quick thoughts for the moment:

 

Sure, it's a lot of points and WAS is a pretty good team. However, WAS has SO many injuries right now on their O-line and even their corners are dinged up.

 

However...guess who NE plays next week? Could NE perhaps look ahead? Almost did against CLE...

 

Just food for thought.

[Mojo Rising]

3. I have one ATS simulator that is pretty honest, and one that is more biased towards the dogs. I keep track of when both simulators show value for the same team. This system has gone 18-13 ATS so far (58%) which includes 2-4 last week.

 

This week both systems show value for:

 

Cle

Det

Mia

Pit

Jac

SF

 

 

Min over Philly

 

Dre, I dont know what to think......I absolutely hate Miami (all around horrible team) to even keep it close and I feel the same way with Min (new QB, horrible pass defense). These were two matchups I was planning to go hard on, could we go more into these?

[Steeltown Dre]

Good post....as you and many posters know, by the end of the NFL season, most (I do say MOST) NFL teams are a game or two within .500 ATS. Very rarely are multiple teams way over or way under .500 ATS.

 

That being said, its time to look for value in the teams that only have 1-2 wins ATS, or teams that have 4-5 wins ATS.

 

This week, there are multiple games involving multiple teams at both ends of this list. GB vs. DEN, NYG vs MIA, BUF vs NYJ, TEN vs. OAK, and CLE vs STL stick out.

 

And at first glance, I like all the teams in these match-ups that are struggling ATS: STL, DEN, OAK, MIA and NYJ.

 

I'll post more when I can fully analyze who is playing for each team....Dre, any trends along this line of thinking?

 

A couple of things. First, I like your thinking and your angle, and even moreso like the fact that you are "asking" about this as opposed to "telling the world" that it's a great and unbeatable strategy.

 

The reason being, your statement: "most (I do say MOST) NFL teams are a game or two within .500 ATS. Very rarely are multiple teams way over or way under .500 ATS."

 

is not entirely correct. I guess it depends on if, when you say "most", you mean more than half, or if you mean a strong % (which the latter would help you from a betting strategy). I'll show you by year the number of teams that finish either 9-7, 8-8, or 7-9 ATS (i.e. <= 2 wins difference ATS) vs. those who are 3 games or more different ATS:

 

Year || <= 2 wins difference ATS || >= 3 wins difference ATS || # of DD wins or losses ATS

2006 || 19 || 13 || 10

2005 || 16 || 16 || 10

2004 || 15 || 17 || 14

2003 || 14 || 18 || 12

2002 || 14 || 18 || 16

2001 || 14 || 18 || 12

2000 || 20 || 12 || 10

 

So what does this show us? It shows us that in 5 of the 7 years sampled, there were actually more teams who finished w/ 3 games or more difference (anywhere from 9-6-1, 10-6, 5-11, 12-4...) in their ATS wins and losses than those that finished w/ 2 or fewer games difference (8-8, 9-7, 7-8-1...)

 

In addition, there are many teams, sometimes half of the league (2002) that finish w/ DD wins or losses ATS. 10-6 or better, or 6-10 or worse.

 

For this reason, it is not really a profitable strategy to play the poor teams each week in hopes they finish close to .500. You'll lose a lot of money that way. Now, can you pick your spots? Sure. But still, there are times when teams finish w/ 3, 4 or 5 wins ATS. You could be playing an 2-5 team ATS for the last 9 games, thinking they'll probably go 6-3 ATS to finish .500, and they could go 2-7 ATS in those games (to finish 4-12 ATS on the year), and you'd be out big time.

 

Now, on a very similar subject:

 

Another poster on another board proposed a similar strategy last week. He called his thread:

 

"I just had a betting breakthrough...Guaranteed 20 units by seasons end if you try this."

 

I kid you not. I took some strong offense to his post. The difference between yours and his is you're thinking and strategizing and asking others if they think it will work. That's the smart way to do it, and the way that can help all of us. I love hearing new strategies and am more than willing to take the time to research them. However, this guy was trying to lead people down this path with him, telling them there was GUARANTEED money to be made - 20 units at that!

 

His strategy was to take the worst teams ATS in the league (ATS records prior to last week):

 

Broncos (0-5 ATS)

Bears (1-5 ATS)

Ravens (1-5 ATS)

Saints (1-4 ATS)

Jets (1-4-1 ATS)

 

And projected that those teams (over the rest of the season) would go:

 

Broncos 5-6 ATS

Bears 4-5 ATS

Ravens 4-5 ATS

Saints 4-6 ATS

Jets 4-5 ATS

 

He surmised that you should play each team to cover, and if they lose ATS, you double up on them the following week.

 

He said he looked back over the years from 2002 to 2006 and found that only 2 teams finished below 5-11 ATS, so playing these teams to get at least 5 wins would be good.

 

Then I actually did some research, and wrote to him:

 

Sir, I read your post. My conclusion is unchanged. This is not a way to make money.

 

Here's some ATS stats for you going further back then the few recent years you checked:

 

Teams that only won 3 games ATS:

 

Hou in 94, Dal in 97, Min in 99, Oak in 03

 

Teams that only won 4 games ATS:

 

NYJ in 89, NE in 90, Cin in 91, STL in 91, Ind in 91, Ind in 93, Det in 96, Cin in 98, NO in 99, Ari in 00, Cin in 02, STL in 02, NYG in 03

 

As you can see, in 02 and 03, probably (perhaps intentionally) just outside the 4 years you checked, 2 teams each season won only 3 or 4 games ATS the whole season.

 

Secondly, are you aware that last year Ten started the season 1-3 ATS and 0-4 SU and went on a 10-2 ATS streak to end the season?

 

Lastly, you state: "if you start with an 0-5 ATS you have no where to go but near .500 for the rest of the year"

 

The only team who is 0-5 ATS is Den. The rest are 1-4 or 1-5. How about I look through they 4 years you supposedly checked, to see if these teams who started 1-4 or 1-5 ATS went 4-5 or 4-6 to finish the season as you presume to think the teams you listed this year will go:

 

I'm sure you are aware that last year Ari started 1-4 ATS and then went 7-4 the rest of the season.

 

The year before in 05, Hou started 1-5 ATS and went 6-4 the rest of the season. Min was 1-4 ATS thru 6 weeks (same point in the season we are at now) and went 8-3 ATS the rest of the year!

 

In 2004 the Saints went 1-5 ATS thru 6 weeks and then went 7-3 ATS to end the year. Also in 04 the Bengals went 0-5 ATS thru 6 weeks and then went 7-4 ATS to finish out the year.

 

In 2003 the Eagles went 1-4 ATS thru 6 weeks and then went 10-1 ATS the rest of the season! Same season, the Bears went 1-4 ATS thru 6 weeks and then went 7-4 ATS the rest of the season.

 

And all of these were supposedly in the 4 years you checked! I didn't even bother looking prior, and wasting any more of my time.

 

Please I would advise you do more research before you post stuff like this. I don't want you to lose money, but most of all, I don't want you guiding anyone to lose money also.

 

As you can see, sometimes teams continue to suck all year ATS. Other times, they rebound starting in week 7 and produce. I see no upside to this system.

 

As you can see from those numbers, teams can either do much worse or much better than you think. Bottom line, it's a good idea, but it won't make money in the long run. I was happy to do the checking, but I didn't like it that this guy was trying to talk bettors who don't have the data handy, telling them it was a guaranteed 20 units, and then they follow his system and lose.

[Steeltown Dre]

Dre, I dont know what to think......I absolutely hate Miami (all around horrible team) to even keep it close and I feel the same way with Min (new QB, horrible pass defense). These were two matchups I was planning to go hard on, could we go more into these?

 

Remember, these systems look at the advantages in the teams as they were the whole season. It does not account for Ronnie Brown going down or Holcomb starting. Also, I have not yet done my own capping, and so that's where we start w/ these.

 

I'll have more time to discuss tomorrow, but initial thoughts:

 

Holcomb has a better rating than Tavaris anyway. He's completed a higher % of his passes, more y/a, and a better TD/Int ratio. He's not green, either. He started in KC (very tough place as you know) And while he only threw for 158 yards, he did not turn the ball over, and kept Min in the game (pushed as a 3 point road dog). The next week as a home dog, he threw for 258 yards, 1TD, 1 Int in Min's 7 point loss to GB.

 

He'll be playing at home against a pass D that has had similar ratings as GB's has had.

 

As for trends, neither team is looking pretty here:

 

Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Eagles are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.

Eagles are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.

 

Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.

Vikings are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.

 

My system is showing a dirty, tough game that wouldn't be fun to watch (except for AP vs. Westy). It's showing a 20-16 game that favors Minnesota. But again, my system isn't always right, and it's had some rough weeks of late.

 

The reason Min's pass D is bottom of the league is because teams have to pass on them because they can't run on them. They are 22nd in Y/A (7.3 Y/A), which is bad but not terrible. But Philly is 18th in that category (7.1 Y/A).

 

Min has the 2nd best rush D based on the numbers, allowing only 3 y/c. Teams try to run on them but find it's better to pass on them. Part of Min's problem is they are the 25th ranked team in time of possession. Their offense is ranked 30th in 3rd down conversions.

 

I'll have to look at this game more.

 

As for Mia/NYG:

 

Game is in London. Who knows what's going to happen over there. NFL would love to see a close, high scoring game. NYG have been solid lately. No one wants to play Mia. In fact, where I do my research, 87% of the spread and 79% of the ML is coming down on the Giants.

 

But at the casinos it's ridiculous: at the LV Hilton, between 92 and 95% spread is on NYG

at MGM 92% is on NYG

88% at Caesars

 

I'm not saying fade or anything, sometimes the right bet is the one people are scared to take. My system is showing a NYG 24-20 victory.

Edited October 26, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

Don't worry about the Colts looking ahead to playing the Patriots.

 

We know that since the 02 season, these 2 have been strong rivals. In the week prior to facing the Pats, the Colts have gone 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS, pushing on -3 and then covering spreads -14.5 and +2.5.

 

The week prior to facing the Colts, the Pats have gone 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS, failing to cover -5.5, -9, and then covering -2 in a 24 point win over Minnesota last year.

[Steeltown Dre]

This game marks just the 2nd time in the last 5 seasons the Browns have been favored on the road. From 2003-now, they were only favored 1 time on the road, last season in Oakland, where they were a 1.5 point fav and won by 3. On the road (whether dog or fav) since Crennel took over in 2005, they have gone 4-14 SU but 9-8-1 ATS.

[Steeltown Dre]

I read elsewhere on that the Polian was said to be complaining about playing a MNF game and then playing a game on the road the following week.

 

There have been 238 times this has happened since 1989. Since 2002 it's happened 69 times before this year. So either way you slice it, it happens to about 13 teams a year.

 

So, how has it affected their performance? Overall, those teams operating on a short week, on the road, have gone 33-39 since 2002 and 37-34-1 ATS.

 

As a favorite, they've gone 17-11 SU and 15-13 ATS.

 

Now, compare that to the other Road Favs since 2002 who have had a full week of rest, and they have gone 120-143-12 ATS.

 

So these teams that hit the road actually have done better ATS on fewer days of rest than did the teams w/ full week of rest.

 

Digging further, if those teams won on MNF and covered the spread, and then hit the road, they've gone 6-8 ATS since 2002. So it definitely takes some value out of the line (and gives some to the UD) if a team wins and covers on MNF and then hits the road on a short week. (Teams that didn't cover the spread on MNF and hit the road on a short week went 9-5 ATS since 2002).

 

Now, the only ligitimate complaint the Colts could have is not that they are hitting the road on a short week, but they are playing a team who has had a bye.

 

Because since 1989, that has only happened 4 times. And since the restructuring in 2002, it has only happened one other time. In 2005 when SD visited Oak on Sunday, after SD had a MNF game and Oak came off a bye. SD was a 1 point favorite and won by 13 points.

 

So I wouldn't get too concerned that Indy is playing on a short week and Car is coming off a bye.

[Steeltown Dre]

I posted this on another board and thought I'd share it here as well. Someone wondered if now was a good time to fade the road favs of -1 to -3.5 points:

 

I just did the research for this theory. First you should know that on average, road favs of -1 to -3.5 hit at 49.8% ATS and 53.6% SU.

 

So, after looking at this you can tell that from weeks 1-4, they are hitting pretty much at or above avg. So no good to fade them then.

 

From weeks 5-7 they seem to hit a rough stretch, and do much worse than avg.

 

But they rebound in week 8 and pretty much hit at or above avg thru week 14. The last 3 weeks of the season, is the best time to fade.

 

So I don't want to rain on your parade, it's a good thought. But I wouldn't just fade away right now, at least based on historical numbers.

 

As you know, playing home dogs is always the (historically speaking) higher % play, so I'm not saying to take road favs. I'm just saying that historically, starting to fade them in week 8 is not the time.

 

You are pretty on point about fading them after week 4/5 as you said, but typically around week 8 is when they start to hit back to normal.

 

 

week	ATS / Win %	SU	SU Win %1	28-30-1	48%	35-24	59%2	21-21-3	50%	27-18	60%3	16-16-0	50%	19-13	59%4	22-22-1	50%	24-21	53%5	18-26-0	41%	23-21	52%6	17-24-2	41%	22-21	51%7	12-24-2	33%	16-22	42%8	18-19-2	49%	22-17	56%9	20-14-4	59%	24-14	63%10	18-19-3	49%	22-18	55%11	17-19-4	47%	22-18	55%12	23-16-3	59%	26-16	62%13	28-32-1	47%	33-28	54%14	21-21-0	50%	23-19	55%15	13-20-2	39%	17-18	49%16	16-23-3	41%	19-23	45%17	14-29-1	33%	17-27	39%

 

Edited October 26, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[whomper]

I like the Steelers / Bengals under 48

[rattsass]

My main play this week is a teaser NE -11 / Tenn -1.5. Also playing a small parlay Tenn -7 / Det +5

[Mojo Rising]

Im taking:

 

Bears -5

Saints -2.5

Eagles -1, under 37.5

Bucs -3.5

 

I feel good about this week, not great.....just good.

[Steeltown Dre]

Wayne Root:

 

Chairman - Jacksonville

Millionaire - Miami

Money Maker - San Fran

No Limit - St Louis

Insiders Circle - Cincinnati

Billionaire - Carolina

[Steeltown Dre]

Brandon Lang

SUNDAY

 

30 DIME

 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

 

5 DIME

 

Eagles

Giants

Redskins

Browns/Rams OVER

[i_am_the_swammi]

Swammi's picks:

 

NE (-15.5) over WAS: why buck the trend? Inevitably, Jason Campbell (he of the 92 yard game last week) will be forced to throw, and that can't be a good thing. Brady & co. at home in yet another laugher. NE 38, Was 17.

 

SD (-9.5) over HOU: Lets see....did that vaunted HOU defense really give up 38 points to a TEN team with Kerry Collins at QB? Did they really turn the ball over on offense 5 times? Do you really need any more than these two reasons to bet the Chargers? SD 34, HOU 20.

 

CIN/PIT over 48: The Bengal defense never could play a lick, and Pitt's vaunted group gave up 31 to a Bronco team that looked lost until last week. Not sure who will win, but it might be the team with the ball last. PIT 31, CIN 27

 

PHL (-1.5) over MIN: Philly is stuck in must win mode, wanting to make their match-up with the Cowboys meaningful next Sunday night. McNabb, Westbrook and the rest of the offense will be more than motivated to make it happen. The Vikings, led by Kerry Holcomb this week, are also in must-win mode, but with less talent at QB to get it done. AD will get his, but the Eagles will get a surprising easy W. Eagles 23, Vikings 13.

 

MIA (+10) over NYG: Both teams play and look sluggish from the long trip, and it shows on the field in a sloppy game. The Giants win in a game where both teams run, run, run. Not many possessions for either squad in a ball-control game played in the damp London air....Giants 16, Dolphins 13.

 

Tease of the week: IND -1 & STL/CLE ovr 40.5

 

 

Good Luck, guys.

[Steeltown Dre]

Favs: SD, Chi, TB

Dogs: Min, SF, Car

 

Those are my 6 official plays. I also have made a few totals plays throughout the week and one teaser, but those won't count towards my record on here.

 

I've bought some of these by 0.5 points, and as always, it's best to shop for a good line. I've got 1 article completed about teasers I will post next week, and will finally post an article about "buying points: when and when not to buy" that should help when buying.

 

As always, I hope everyone has a great day today. I hope that some of my early postings have given you "food for thought" and insight into certain games or trends. Should be some exciting games today, looking forward to watching...

[RussMan]

I like a teaser with these teams... Colts, Giants. By teasing you get to move the line 6 points to you.

[Steeltown Dre]

MIA (+10) over NYG: Both teams play and look sluggish from the long trip, and it shows on the field in a sloppy game. The Giants win in a game where both teams run, run, run. Not many possessions for either squad in a ball-control game played in the damp London air....Giants 16, Dolphins 13.

 

I like the play, but have not made it...yet.

[whomper]

I took a 3 team tease..Im not a big teaser fan but I am playing scared a little after getting my ass handed to me in baseball..I got a big chunk back on the Hawaii under last night..Heres my tease..I also like the Redskins individual over 16 for tonights game

 

Football - 213 Philadelphia Eagles/Minnesota Vikings under 47½ for Game

Football - 223 New Orleans Saints +8 for Game

Football - 226 New England Patriots -6 for Game

Edited October 28, 2007 by whomper