Steeltown Dre Posted October 28, 2007 Author Share Posted October 28, 2007 I took a 3 team tease..Im not a big teaser fan but I am playing scared a little after getting my ass handed to me in baseball..I got a big chunk back on the Hawaii under last night..Heres my tease..I also like the Redskins individual over 16 for tonights game Football - 213 Philadelphia Eagles/Minnesota Vikings under 47½ for Game Football - 223 New Orleans Saints +8 for Game Football - 226 New England Patriots -6 for Game unless we get multiple D TDs, I like that under. Of course I like NE-6. The only game that scares me is the NO game, but it definitely could come through... Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted October 29, 2007 Share Posted October 29, 2007 unless we get multiple D TDs, I like that under. Of course I like NE-6. The only game that scares me is the NO game, but it definitely could come through... Good luck Whew..Thanks..The Under scared me a little . The other 2 ended up being cakewalks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted October 29, 2007 Author Share Posted October 29, 2007 Favs: SD, Chi, TBDogs: Min, SF, Car Those are my 6 official plays. I also have made a few totals plays throughout the week and one teaser, but those won't count towards my record on here. Wow - 1-5 is my posted record this week, and that's about as bad a "picking" weekend I think I've ever had. My overall bankroll took a hit but not as bad as going 1-5. My O/Us have been pretty solid of late and I went heavy on my 8-0 ytd record over recommendation of Jac/TB and it cashed. Also added a Mia/Under teaser and that worked out well. But overall a poor week. My YTD Huddle record now stands at: 22-15-2 (Including leans and not played: 25-16-2) So the solid start is beginning to slip away. The main reason: Underdogs not coming through like I think... I play mostly dogs, and so far this season dogs did great to start, but have come up very short of late. Here is the record of underdogs by week this season: week ATS Win %1 5-9-2 36%2 12-3-1 80%3 8-5-3 62%4 9-5-0 64%5 7-6-0 54%6 4-8-1 33%7 7-7-0 50%8 5-7-0 42% Take a look at how closely my record is mimicked by the record of dogs (w/ the exception of week 1 of the season, which I try to select particular favs every year in week 1): Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1) Week 2: 2-1 Week 3: 4-0 Week 4: 3-1 Week 5: 2-2-1 Week 6: 3-2-1 Week 7: 2-4 Week 8: 1-5 As you can see, favs did great in week 1 (dogs did bad). Weeks 2-4 dogs produced very solid results. Then weeks 5-8 dogs have been brutal. Typically good, dog bettors are considered "sharps" in the industry. That is, if you're hitting at a high % and take a lot of dogs. Public "square" bettors typically take mostly favs. Sharps will take favs when they choose, but typically play majority dogs. At any rate, you can see that "square" bettors have been doing about as good as "sharp" bettors the past few weeks. On average. I know that there are those sharps that have been hitting well, but many including some associates of mine have been going through a rough stretch. Don't give up hope - it's not even halfway through the season, and we still have playoffs. So while those dogs have not come in like you may thought, they should turn around. Historically, Dogs do well the first 4 or 5 weeks of the season. Then they hit a rough patch for a few weeks. That is one reason I was trying to pick some good favs this week (more than normal) but just took a couple bad games. Then dogs will come back for a couple of weeks and then favs hit well from about week 11-15. During the hardcore playoff push. Then dogs bark loud the last couple weeks of the year. Here's a look: week ATS Win %1 43-35-1 55%2 35-43-2 45%3 37-29-2 56%4 34-34-2 50%5 32-31-3 51%6 34-35-0 49%7 33-32-3 51%8 33-36-0 48%9 36-29-3 55%10 35-33-3 51%11 35-41-2 46%12 36-39-3 48%13 38-39-1 49%14 37-41-1 47%15 37-40-2 48%16 42-33-5 56%17 43-36-1 54% So don't feel bad if you've been having a few bad weeks. Adjust your strategies accordingly. I'm going to post an article to a couple other sites this morning about the plays, but realize the linesmakers always adjust. Compare this seasons numbers to the last 5 years. You'll see dogs hit at a much higher rate in weeks 2-5. So Vegas adjusted and now dogs have hit at a much lower rate the past few weeks. I anticipate a rebound back to avg or around avg for dogs the next couple of weeks.... before it becomes sharper around week 11 to ride some teams that are in a groove and pushing for that playoff spot, whether they are favs or dogs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 29, 2007 Share Posted October 29, 2007 Nobody playing tonights game? I think Green Bay will probably win this game. I'll take Favre on a Monday night, and I'll take the three points. Half of yesterdays winnings on the line. Looking to hang a tough one on the man for the weekend. Come on Favre! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted October 29, 2007 Share Posted October 29, 2007 Sorry I wasn't around guys, had a family emergency. I didn't have a chance to lay much of anything, but I did go 1-0, got in on NE. It's a good thing I DIDN'T get to play much, as I would have gotten crushed; everything else I considered would have lost. Would have been around 2-6 I've got to run again, but going with DEN -3. Good luck tonight boys, go get 'em. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted October 29, 2007 Share Posted October 29, 2007 I'm really liking the over 44.5........also the half over +21.5.....and contemplating green bay...............if I remember correctly GB and Favre play good after byes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.