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The Race to the Bottom (and Top)


muck
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Now that we've played more games, I've tweaked the methodology a bit to consider the strength of the schedule that has already been played (and how teams did vs. that level of competition) ... and ... looked at the strength of schedule going forward. This leads to a projection of Baltimore (who is 4-3 right now) winning fewer games going forward than Denver (who is only 3-4).

 

1t. Miami (projected at 2.0 wins; currently 0-8) -- last week projected at 2.3 wins and the #1 draft pick

1t. St. Louis (projected at 2.0 wins; currently 0-8) -- last week projected at 2.4 wins and the #2 draft pick

3. New York Jets (projected at 3.1 wins; currently 1-7) -- last week projected at 3.5 wins and the #3 draft pick

4. Atlanta (projected at 4.0 wins; currently 1-7) -- last week projected at 3.9 wins and the #4 draft pick

5. Oakland (projected at 5.3 wins; currently 2-5 -- last week projected at 5.7 wins and the #5 draft pick

6. Minnesota (projected at 5.5 wins; currently 2-5) -- last week projected at 6.0 wins and the #7 draft pick

7. San Francisco (projected at 5.7 wins; currently 2-5) -- last week projected at 6.7 wins and the #10t draft pick

8. Cincinnati (projected at 5.9 wins; currently 2-5) -- last week projected at 6.6 wins and the #9 draft pick

9. Houston (projected at 6.4 wins; currently 3-5) -- last week projected at 6.9 wins and the #13t draft pick

10. Chicago (projected at 6.7 wins; currently 3-5) -- last week projected at 6.9 wins and the #13t draft pick

 

Dropping out of the Bottom Ten: Philadelphia, Buffalo and New Orleans

New to the Bottom Ten: Houston and Chicago

 

 

...and the top 12 teams ('cause 12 teams go to the playoffs) ... are:

1. New England (projected at 14.0 wins; currently 8-0) -- last week projected at 13.8 wins

2. Indianapolis (projected at 13.9 wins; currently 7-0) -- last week projected at 13.2 wins

3. Green Bay (projected at 12.3 wins; currently 6-1) -- last week projected at 11.7 wins

4. Dallas (projected at 11.9 wins; currently 6-1) -- last week projected at 11.9 wins

5. New York Giants (projected at 10.7 wins; currently 6-2) -- last week projected at 10.4 wins

6. Pittsburgh (projected at 10.6 wins; currently 6-2) -- last week projected at 10.3 wins

7t. Tennessee (projected at 10.5 wins; currently 5-2) -- last week projected at 9.8 wins

7t. Jacksonville (projected at 10.5 wins; currently 5-2) -- last week projected at 9.6 wins

9. Detroit (projected at 10.0 wins; currently 5-2) -- last week projected at 9.0 wins

10. Washington (projected at 9.1 wins; currently 4-3) -- last week projecteda at 9.5 wins

11t. Seattle (projected at 8.8 wins; currently 4-3) -- last week projected at 9.4 wins

11t. San Diego (projected at 8.8 wins; currently 4-3) -- last week projected at 7.6 wins

 

Dropping out of the Top Twelve: Carolina

New to the Top Twelve: San Diego

 

 

Based on the W/L records of teams' future opponents, the following teams have the easiest and hardest schedules going forward:

1. Detroit -- opponents are currently 0.625

2. New York Jets -- opponents are currently 0.621

3. Philadelphia -- opponents are currently 0.606

4. Baltimore -- opponents are currently 0.600

5. San Diego -- opponents are currently 0.587

 

28. New Orleans -- opponents are currently 0.388

29. Arizona -- opponents are currently 0.385

30t. San Francisco -- opponents are currently 0.369

30t. Seattle -- opponents are currently 0.369

32. Tampa Bay -- opponents are currently 0.368

 

 

Based on the W/L records of teams' previous opponents (excluding the impact of the outcome of each teams direct games with their opponents, the following teams had the easiest and hardest schedules already played -- who has played the hardest and easiest schedule:

1. Denver -- opponents are currently 0.667 in games where they didn't play Denver

2. Chicago -- opponents are currently 0.625 in games where they dind't play Chicago

3. Washington -- opponents are currently 0.622 in games where they didn't play Washington

4. Indianapolis -- opponents are currently 0.614 in games where they dind't play Indianapolis

5. Tampa Bay -- opponents are currently 0.592 in games where they didn't play Tampa Bay

 

28. Kansas City -- opponents are currently 0.409 in games where they didn't play Kansas City

29t. Carolina -- opponents are currently 0.400 in games where they didn't play Carolina

29t. Cleveland -- opponents are currently 0.400 in games where they didn't play Cleveland

31. Seattle -- opponents are currently 0.378 in games where they didn't play Seattle

32. Baltimore -- opponents are currently 0.278 in games where they didn't play Baltimore

 

.....................

 

Things to note ... IND is undefeated after having played a MUCH more difficult schedule to date than has NE (0.614 w/l for IND's opponents vs. 0.480 for NE's opponents) ... and BAL has been playing against the NFL's junior varsity so don't get too excited about their 4-3 start as their future opponents are winning an average of 60% of the games they're playing.

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