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Projections: Bengals WRs


whiskey
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When are the projections going to reflect the fact that TJ Housh is a better fantasy receiver than Chad Johnson? Every week the projections predict better numbers for Chad and every week Housh outscores him. I know that Chad is a more talented receiver, with more physical gifts, but the projections need to start taking into consideration the fact that he gets more attention from defenses. Each week there is some half-assed explanation for why TJ continues to outscore Chad but why this week is the week Chad gets back on track. Is it going to be week 14 until the site gets this right? Housh will have 16 TDs by then.

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As a CJ owner, couldnt agree more..!

 

Each week, I see his projections, and say, okay, this is the week he gets into the endzone......a place he hasn't found since week 2....!!

 

This site isn't the only one that consistently predicts a 100 yards and a score for CJ.....MOST sites continue to do so; guess they are hedging their bets that this could be the break out game...!

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:D

 

Set your own lineups.

Why is it that every time somebody finds faults with the Huddle predictions. services that they are paying for, somebody makes some lame comment like this?

 

After all, these guys claim to be authorities on FF and thus host a site, that they charge for, to provide insight on the subject. Whenever anyone has the nerve to challenge their info, along come the hecklers. It's like freaking clockwork.

 

T minus 10 and counting until, "Nobody's forcing you to use this site"

 

Is there any freaking gray area? Are you not allowed to use a product that you are essentially satisfied with but still find faults with?

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Why is it that every time somebody finds faults with the Huddle predictions. services that they are paying for, somebody makes some lame comment like this?

 

After all, these guys claim to be authorities on FF and thus host a site, that they charge for, to provide insight on the subject. Whenever anyone has the nerve to challenge their info, along come the hecklers. It's like freaking clockwork.

 

T minus 10 and counting until, "Nobody's forcing you to use this site"

 

Is there any freaking gray area? Are you not allowed to use a product that you are essentially satisfied with but still find faults with?

 

It may just be me, but I think the problem is not so much that they question something, it's the manner in which it is done. Posts like this tend to be attacking in nature rather than trying to engage in legitimate debate. Last time I tried to point this out, I was accused of blindly supporting the site, so I will leave it at this.

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When are the projections going to reflect the fact that TJ Housh is a better fantasy receiver than Chad Johnson? Every week the projections predict better numbers for Chad and every week Housh outscores him. I know that Chad is a more talented receiver, with more physical gifts, but the projections need to start taking into consideration the fact that he gets more attention from defenses. Each week there is some half-assed explanation for why TJ continues to outscore Chad but why this week is the week Chad gets back on track. Is it going to be week 14 until the site gets this right? Housh will have 16 TDs by then.

 

:D TRUTH

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Let me be clear, I am a happy TJ owner and a happy Huddle member. Fantasy football is very difficult to predict as we all know, and not even experts can be correct 100% of the time. I love the Huddle projections and use them as 1 of many information sources when making my own lineup decisions. However this Bengals WR discrepancy has been a consistent theme throughout the year. At what point do you ditch preseason projections and take a look at what's happening on the field?

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I read this about TJ this week and it made me smile ...

 

His junior college coach, Frank Mazzotta of Cerritos College, said people are deceived into thinking TJ is slow or not as gifted because of his running style: "People have misconceptions because he's got that funny gait. He's got that long upper torso and short legs and he looks like Barney Rubble out there. "

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Why would you bench either TJ or Chad? Seriously I dont understand what you are arguing.

 

Can you honestly tell me it is a stretch that Chad outscores TJ any given week? you act like they gave TJ 10 yards and 0 TDs.

 

I think you are looking for a way to complain. Dumbass argument if you ask me. I dont turn to the huddle so they can tell me what the every week studs are going to do I come here to see what they predict to the average players. Like am I going to bench Chad for Santonio Holmes? NO! but I may bench Santonio Holmes for Galloway. Thats what most people should use these projections.

 

Maybe I am the crazy one.

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Dude, I'm not complaining as much as bringing up a point that I consistently see across a variety of projections - that CJ will outscore TJ, and I find it interesting that given what we've seen on the field thus far, that these types of projections continue. Of course Chad can outscore TJ on any given week. We all know that. Nobody is sitting Chad or TJ, but given what we've seen on the field this year, I find it funny that experts are reluctant to project TJ as the main threat in fantasy terms.

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Let me be clear, I am a happy TJ owner and a happy Huddle member. Fantasy football is very difficult to predict as we all know, and not even experts can be correct 100% of the time. I love the Huddle projections and use them as 1 of many information sources when making my own lineup decisions. However this Bengals WR discrepancy has been a consistent theme throughout the year. At what point do you ditch preseason projections and take a look at what's happening on the field?

 

It's all good, I didn't take what you wrote as an attack. I've been a disgruntled CJ owner all year, and I should have known cause TJ has been the goaline threat all along with C Henry for the last couple years. This year though I thought their would be more to go around with C Henry out of the picture the first half of the season, but I was wrong and CJ has just hasn't produced like I thought he would.

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Dude, I'm not complaining as much as bringing up a point that I consistently see across a variety of projections - that CJ will outscore TJ, and I find it interesting that given what we've seen on the field thus far, that these types of projections continue. Of course Chad can outscore TJ on any given week. We all know that. Nobody is sitting Chad or TJ, but given what we've seen on the field this year, I find it funny that experts are reluctant to project TJ as the main threat in fantasy terms.

 

Why do you hate America?

Edited by MrTed46
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When are the projections going to reflect the fact that TJ Housh is a better fantasy receiver than Chad Johnson? Every week the projections predict better numbers for Chad and every week Housh outscores him. I know that Chad is a more talented receiver, with more physical gifts, but the projections need to start taking into consideration the fact that he gets more attention from defenses. Each week there is some half-assed explanation for why TJ continues to outscore Chad but why this week is the week Chad gets back on track. Is it going to be week 14 until the site gets this right? Housh will have 16 TDs by then.

 

Sooner or later the huddle will be right by predicting a better/bigger game from Chad then from TJ. :D

 

As a CJ owner, couldnt agree more..!

 

Each week, I see his projections, and say, okay, this is the week he gets into the endzone......a place he hasn't found since week 2....!!

 

This site isn't the only one that consistently predicts a 100 yards and a score for CJ.....MOST sites continue to do so; guess they are hedging their bets that this could be the break out game...!

 

I have projected that Housh would have better games than Chad almost every week of the season. Housh was, before this year and continues to be, the better/more consistent fantasy WR. He gets a ton of receptions, goes over the middle to make the tough catches and has even made some big plays happen. Chad continues to pull coverage and Housh benefits from it. Housh is the Bengals #1 WR and I will continue to project him out as so. This may just be the year that TJ finishes with better stats than Chad. Unless of course Chad blows up for his 2-3 huge games to bump his numbers and then falls back to Earth for the rest of the year again. Even if he does that, Housh is still the better fantasy play from week to week as he consistently puts up very solid stats, including a few BIG games, and very rarely pulls the disappearing acts that we see from Chad.

Edited by irish
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They are both great WRs and continue to prove so, but yall have to considered, CJ aint entirly healed from his ankle injury and that game TJ and carson palmer time to connect with each other. if you think about, last year, CJ did decent then all of a sudden in the last couple weeks, he pumuled everyone

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CJ projections thru week 8: 660/8

CJ actual production thru week 8: 731/3

 

TJ projections thru week 8: 540/6

TJ actual production thru week 8: 629/9

 

I would say that the projections are pretty damn good....CJs projections are within 10% of his actual(yardage)

and TJs is within 16%

 

CJ

WK/PROJ/ACT

1.....90/1...95/1

2....100/2...209/2

3...110/1....138/0

4....90/1.......53/0

5.bye

6....100/1....83/0

7....100/1...102/0

8....70/1.....50/0

 

TJ

WK/PROJ/ACT

1....80/1....95/1

2....80/0...69/2

3....60/1...141/1

4....80/1...100/1

5.bye

6...80/1...145/2

7....80/1....43/1

8....80/1....81/1

 

Weekly projections have to be the hardest thing to do in FF....there are so many different factors that can easily sku the data that is used to come up with the projections.....

 

Now lets take a look at the yearly projections for CJ and TJ

This is as of 9/3

CJ was projected to have 93 catches for 1390 yards with 10 TDs

CJ is on pace for 101 catches for 1671 yards with 7 TDs

That projection is off by only 8.6% on catches in favor of FF players, off 20% in yardage(again in favor of FF players) and 30% off in TDs(against FF players)

but if you break it down(.10/yard, .5/recption, 6/td)

Projected points as of 9/3: 245.5

Current pace: 259.6 an increase of 5.7% of initial projections

 

TJ was projected to have 89 catches for 1110 yards with 9 TDs

TJ is on pace for 133 catches 1438 yards with 21 TDs

The projection is off by 49% on catches in favor of FF players, off 29% in yards(again in favor of FF players) and off 133% in TDs(in favor of FF Players)

Projected points as of 9/3: 209.50

Current pace: 336.30 an increase of 60% of initial projections in FAVOR of FF players

 

now with all that said if anyone thinks that TJ is going to stay on pace for 21 TDs(TJ owner so I sure would like it :D ) you are kidding yourself....TJ has been a bright spot in FF this yr but his performance is more of an anomaly then something one should expect....he will post great numbers but projecting this pace or current output imo would have and continue to be extremely difficult to do

 

Disclaimer: they are not my projections...I just decided to look at it a little closer is all.

 

also fwiw I think that TJ has been the biggest beneficiary with Chris Henry out....once henry works back into the mix I would suspect we will see TJs numbers come back down to earth some where CJ will probably stay very close to his current pace

Edited by keggerz
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It's all good, I didn't take what you wrote as an attack. I've been a disgruntled CJ owner all year, and I should have known cause TJ has been the goaline threat all along with C Henry for the last couple years. This year though I thought their would be more to go around with C Henry out of the picture the first half of the season, but I was wrong and CJ has just hasn't produced like I thought he would.

not singling you out but i continue to read that CJ owners are disgruntled and I dont get it(i own him in 2 leagues and am as happy as pie)....

CJ is on pace to post the most receptions and yardage of his career....yeah he is only on pace for 7 TDs but his career high is only 10 so its not like he is really all that far off of a complete career year.

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not singling you out but i continue to read that CJ owners are disgruntled and I dont get it(i own him in 2 leagues and am as happy as pie)....

CJ is on pace to post the most receptions and yardage of his career....yeah he is only on pace for 7 TDs but his career high is only 10 so its not like he is really all that far off of a complete career year.

 

Well first off your stats are wrong, CJ has scored 3 times, not 4. Reason being is I want my WR to put up #1 FF numbers and I want TD's. Housh is scoring at will, Palmer locks onto him, he rarely ever does this with CJ. If he's my #1 I expect 10-12 TD's a year and he's going to really have to turn it around to accomplish that. He's not being consistent, another thing I want from my #1 WR. Let's not go with raw stats Keg, let's go with what he does on a weekly basis, and so far, it's not been enough or consistent enough.

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it probably has something to do with the fact that, over the long haul, chad has consistently outscored TJ. through about half a season this year, they've found TJ in the end zone more, so he has more fantasy points. big deal. doesn't change the fact that chad is the #1 WR on that team, and on any given week he is a better bet (even if only slightly) to put up points. gotta see the forest through the trees, dude.

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Well first off your stats are wrong, CJ has scored 3 times, not 4. Reason being is I want my WR to put up #1 FF numbers and I want TD's. Housh is scoring at will, Palmer locks onto him, he rarely ever does this with CJ. If he's my #1 I expect 10-12 TD's a year and he's going to really have to turn it around to accomplish that. He's not being consistent, another thing I want from my #1 WR. Let's not go with raw stats Keg, let's go with what he does on a weekly basis, and so far, it's not been enough or consistent enough.

that was a TYPO and i fixed it....you can see by my weekly summary that i had him at 3 TDs...

 

now outside of that maybe your expectations of CJ as a #1 WR is a bit off since he has only had 10 TDs once in a season...what you get with CJ is 87-95 catches/year with 1274-1400+ yards/year and 7-10 TDs....CJ like all other WRs will have games where they dont produce TOP 3 #s but he produces week in and week out and has done it consistently for 4 1/2 seasons....WR is probably the most inconsistent positions you will find yet CJ consistently produces and yeah you have to look at RAW stats because that is what he produces....now I dont have the time to do it but maybe someone else wants to look at his production in a different manner and break it down by his weekly avg and how many times he performs at or above that average..but i honestly dont even see how he is wildly inconsistent this year...he only has 2 weeks with single digit fantasy scoring(6.8 & 7.6) ...I think what the major problem with CJ this year is that everyone is in envy of TJs phenomenal production and TD pace.

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CJ is all about the monster games, Housh is all about the steady production. It's been that way for a couple of seasons now, so it all depends on what you're looking for in a FFL player. I can see where the weekly projections get tricky, because you never know when CJ is going to go off.

 

As a TJ owner (I dig the consistent production), I'm not looking forward to Henry's return. I agree with the previous comment that Henry will eat into Housh's production while CJ's will remain more or less the same. We TJ owners may have to settle for a score every other game instead of a score in every game! :D

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I can honestly say I did not see this one coming this morning.

 

Having done projections for the last ten years and that it is my biggest job every week, I actually do take it rather seriously. Unlike many other places, I do not use any mathematical formulas based on previous stats but individually consider 250+ players every week. All told I have probably made somewhere near 50,000 projections by hand and considering each as to their previous performances, the current match-ups and team dynamics and a host of variables. Projections by their nature only predict a single outcome of many possibilities and as always, a players performance is the product of many individual plays - each of which that can change with a dropped pass or a defender being a few inches to the left or right. It is about expectations and probability of success.

 

In the case of CJ and TJH, they have one of the more interesting dynamics in the league. You have CJ who is very talented (probably top 5 in the league in terms of talent) and who has led the league for the last two years in receiving yardage. You have TJH who is certainly a solid WR and may be more talented than some of the #1's out there but overall, I would rank him probably around 25th or so in talent. Hard to say really becaus he is a function of CJ. Teams always scheme to stop CJ first and TJH gets the benefit of that. Just wait until next year because what will happen is that TJH is going to have a stellar season and CJ is likely to leave the Bengals. Then when TJH is the #1, he is not going to play this well. I honestly believe that.

 

What happens with CJ is that for the last two years, he has tended to have monster games and then mediocre ones because either the defense devotes it all to stopping CJ and is successful, or CJ gets loose and has a great game. In the background, TJH is there to take what doesn't go to CJ.

 

Again, it is about probability and expectation that is encapsulated in one hard number. The bottom line to projections too is to answer one question - should a fantasy team start this player? I cannot imagine any fantasy team out there that would not start either CJ or TJH every week anyway so why this sets someone off I am unclear.

 

As a sidenote, projecting for players like CJ is harder than for "normal" WRs because the most talented WRs do not just sit in the flanker or split end position with the same cornerback matchup all game long. They will move him into a host of other positions all across the line in order to get or force specific matchups during the game which the defense is trying to counteract.

 

What boosts TJH is obviously his TD catches every week which is sort of a sign that defenses are saying "we'll give you that one but you cannot have CJ the way you want." TD's are single play events and those are always going to be a challenge to predict. Looking at what I projected along the way, I think that was pretty damn good personally. The only ones that were very far off was CJ vs. NE and TJH vs. SEA.

 

I could go on and on about this but the bottom line to it all still remains - would you not play CJ and TJH every single week that you have them? I would.

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Why is it that every time somebody finds faults with the Huddle predictions. services that they are paying for, somebody makes some lame comment like this?

 

After all, these guys claim to be authorities on FF and thus host a site, that they charge for, to provide insight on the subject. Whenever anyone has the nerve to challenge their info, along come the hecklers. It's like freaking clockwork.

 

T minus 10 and counting until, "Nobody's forcing you to use this site"

 

Is there any freaking gray area? Are you not allowed to use a product that you are essentially satisfied with but still find faults with?

 

These posts were begging for that response.

 

Each week there is some half-assed explanation for why TJ continues to outscore Chad but why this week is the week Chad gets back on track. Is it going to be week 14 until the site gets this right? Housh will have 16 TDs by then.

 

 

As a CJ owner, couldnt agree more..!

 

okay, this is the week he gets into the endzone....

 

Perhaps their intent to start a discussion, but if so, the words chosen were poor, at best.

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