Week 9 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

My personal (posted) plays this year:

 

 

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 4-0

Week 4: 3-1

Week 5: 2-2-1

Week 6: 3-2-1

Week 7: 2-4

Week 8: 1-5

 

Overall: 22-15-2

(Including leans and not played: 25-16-2)

 

I want to focus you on an article I wrote on Monday:

 

http://sharpfootballanalysis.blogspot.com/...-weeks-6-8.html

 

and make sure you see the following image (in that article):

 

http://bp0.blogger.com/_cOrbgqgQDgs/RyX005...ATS+by+week.bmp

 

It is no coincidence that my record, as well as many others out there who bet on a lot of dogs typically, has taken a beating the past 3 weeks. It's a remarkable trend in weeks 6-8 that such a thing happens, and I elaborate more on it in the article.

 

So, I'll be trying this week to get back on track in terms of my posted record. I play everything I post, but I don't post everything I play. I play a fair number of totals (though not quite as many as my ATS bets). Also I'd venture to say 1/3 of all my weekly wagers occur in some variation of in-game betting. Be it halftime or live. These are great ways to get value, get middles, or simply get off of a pre-game bet.

 

Up next, review of the system from week 8 and what it's showing for week 9.

[Steeltown Dre]

I should also add from the above: I post my picks on certain games. But there are many plays that can be made from both the "Bye Week Trends" and my "System" plays. I make some of these and they don't count towards my posted record. But they have been profitable all year and I will continue to consider each play...

 

Posted Bye Week Trends:

 

Started keeping track in this format week 7:

Week 7: 4-1

Week 8: 2-1

 

All stats/trends go back to 2002, when the restructuring occurred.

 

#1: If a team is favored by 6.5 points or more and playing the last game prior to a bye, they are 29-1 SU and 26-5 ATS (84%).

 

So far this season we are 4-1 w/ this trend, last week's NYG loss. Unfortunately, no plays this week.

 

#2: If a team is a Road Fav and coming off a bye, they are 20-10 ATS (67%).

 

Last week we went 1-0 w/ Cle winning. That brings it to 4-2 on the season. This week we have Dal -3 at Phi.

 

#3: If a team is a Home Fav and coming off a bye, they are 41-25 ATS (62%)

 

Last week we went 1-0 w/ this trend, w/ SD winning. That brings it to 3-2 on the season. This week we have KC -1 and ATL -3.

 

So in total, this season these bye week trends have gone 11-5 (69%), and since 2002 they have gone 87-40 (69%). Extremely consistent...

[Steeltown Dre]

System Plays Week 9:

 

1. Top ATS predictor has gone 6-3 (67%) this season and went 0-0 last weekend. This weekend it is taking Pittsburgh.

 

2. Top 5 leans each week:

 

Week 3: 4-1

Week 4: 5-0

Week 5: 2-3

Week 6: 3-2

Week 7: 2-3

Week 8: 3-2

 

Total 19-11 (63%)

 

For week 9, the top 5 leans are:

 

TB

Ten

Jac

Min

Pit

 

3. I have one ATS simulator that is pretty honest, and one that is more biased towards the dogs. I keep track of when both simulators show value for the same team. This system has gone 24-14 ATS so far (63%) which includes a remarkable 6-1 last week.

 

This week both systems show value for:

 

NYJ

Jac

Buf

Min

Ind

Phi

 

4. I have also tracked when I have seen the wrong team favored. In other words, times when my system is showing the dog could actually win the game. In some cases, the dog does win, in other cases he covers, and then of course, there are times he fails to cover.

 

Here's how those picks have gone:

 

Week 3: Hou over Indy (ATS and SU Loss), GB over SD (ATS and SU Win), ATL over Car (ATS and SU Loss), Ten over NO (ATS and SU win). 2-2 ATS, 2-2 SU

Week 4: Cle over Bal (ATS and SU Win), Det over Chi (ATS and SU Win), Buf tie w/ NYJ (ATS win and SU Loss), NYG over Phi (ATS and SU win). 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU

Week 5: KC over Jac (ATS and SU Loss), SF over Bal (ATS win and SU Loss). 1-1 ATS, 0-2 SU

Week 6: KC over Cin (ATS and SU Win). 1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU

Week 7: Buf over Bal (ATS and SU Win), TB over Det (ATS and SU Loss), Jac over Ind (ATS and SU Loss). 1-2 ATS and 1-2 SU

Week 8: Min over Philly (ATS and SU Loss)

 

Summary: 9-6 ATS, 7-8 SU

 

Even a below .500 record SU can net you solid profits if you are taking these dogs on the moneyline.

 

This week here's the games the system is showing the wrong team is favored:

 

NYJ over Was

Jac over NO

Buf over Cin

Phi over Dal

 

____________________________________________

 

 

Now, onto the O/U Systems:

 

1. Top Overs predictor has gone 9-0 this season including 1-0 last weekend.

 

This weekend it is selecting:

 

Was/NYJ Over

Bal/Pit Over

 

2. I also have another Overs predictor which is 13-3 (81%) this season including 1-0 last weekend.

 

This weekend it is selecting:

 

NE/Ind Over

Bal/Pit Over

 

3. The best Overs simulator has gone 23-12 this season (66%) including 1-1 last weekend. Here are all Overs leans for this weekend:

 

Was/NYJ Over

GB/KC Over

Ari/TB Over

Car/Ten Over

Bal/Pit Over

 

4. The best Unders simulator has gone 32-18 (64%) including 3-3 last weekend. Here are all Unders leans for this weekend:

 

SF/ATL Under

Jac/NO Under

Den/Det Under

Cin/Buf Under

SD/Min Under

Cle/Sea Under

NE/Ind Under

Dal/Phi Under

Bal/Pit OVER

 

5. When I combine these 2 simulators and compare each game, there are times that even the Over simulator has a lean to the Under, and sometimes even the Unders simulator has a lean to the Over. When both simulators lean to the same side, I have tracked those plays. There have been 32 times this season it has happened, and the record has been 24-12 (67%) including 2-2 last weekend.

 

This weekend we have:

 

SF/ATL Under

Den/Det Under

Cin/Buf Under

Cle/Sea Under

NE/Ind Under

 

Just a note: My overs predictor mentioned in #2 above is completely independent of the other O/U systems. That is why it is showing value in the NE/Ind Over while the others are showing value in the Under.

[geeteebee]

I don't gamble on football much but I do have a question this week. I play in a pick 'em league and I've always been told not to bet on road dogs but this week there are a number that look decent. If I take a bunch of road dogs, am I just pissing money away? This is straight up, not against the spread.

[Steeltown Dre]

I don't gamble on football much but I do have a question this week. I play in a pick 'em league and I've always been told not to bet on road dogs but this week there are a number that look decent. If I take a bunch of road dogs, am I just pissing money away? This is straight up, not against the spread.

 

Road Dogs are for SU are not a terrible bet, you just have to know when to pick your spots.

 

ATS, Road dogs since 2002 are 51% ATS. That means ATS they are slightly better than home favs (49%). However both numbers are very close.

 

Road Dogs only won 32% of those games SU.

 

Since 2002, here is how Road Dogs have done depending on the line:

 

 

line	ATS	ATS %	SU	SU %1	18-18-1	50%	18-19-0	49%1'	10-13-0	43%	10-13-0	43%2	16-18-1	47%	13-22-0	37%2'	19-15-0	56%	19-15-0	56%3	80-65-18	55%	72-91-0	44%3'	31-36-0	46%	21-46-0	31%4	14-23-3	38%	9-31-0	23%4'	24-15-0	62%	18-21-0	46%5	17-13-0	57%	13-16-1	45%5'	18-18-0	50%	11-25-0	31%6	20-35-2	36%	15-42-0	26%6'	30-21-0	59%	18-33-0	35%7	32-31-1	51%	23-41-0	36%7'	22-16-0	58%	7-31-0	18%8	14-11-1	56%	2-24-0	8%8'	6-7-0	46%	2-11-0	15%9	13-17-0	43%	5-25-0	17%9'	15-14-0	52%	8-21-0	28%10	14-16-1	47%	6-25-0	19%10'	11-5-0	69%	2-14-0	13%11	6-13-0	32%	1-18-0	5%11'	3-1-0	75%	2-2-0	50%12	5-3-0	63%	2-6-0	25%12'	7-4-0	64%	1-10-0	9%13	5-6-0	45%	1-10-0	9%13'	7-4-0	64%	4-7-0	36%14	3-0-1	100%	1-3-0	25%14'	1-1-0	50%	0-2-0	0%15	0-1-0	0%	0-1-0	0%15'	1-1-0	50%	0-2-0	0%16	1-2-0	33%	0-3-0	0%16'	0-3-0	0%	0-3-0	0%17	1-0-0	100%	0-1-0	0%17'	1-0-0	100%	0-1-0	0%19'	1-0-0	100%	0-1-0	0%

 

 

I know the formatting stinks, but it is what it is... The tick mark " ' " means 0.5 - helped w/ formatting a bit.

 

Anyhow, the fact to take away:

 

If the spread is less than 3 points, the road dog actually has won roughly 47% of those games outright. So you aren't pissing your money away if you take them in a pickem SU.

 

Again, the spread is not made to be a factor as to the points a team will win by. It is made based on public opinion as to what the public thinks, to get either even action or action on a certain "losing" side.

 

But typically, a spread of less than 3 and you have a good shot at a win. A large road dog means either or all:

 

the home team is good, the road team is bad, the home team is good at home, the road team is bad on the road, the home team is healthier than the road team, or the linesmaker thinks the public will bet the game evenly if he sets it at that number.

 

Favorites don't always win:

 

This season, favs have gone 75-40 SU and 50-58 ATS. If they were a fav of less than 6 points, they have gone only 36-33 SU and 24-39 ATS.

 

So dogs are not a bad play at all, hitting almost 50% if getting between 1 and 5.5 points.

[Mojo Rising]

looks like an interesting week......Dre I was wondering do you have stats on how Favre/GB do after MNF.......it seems he always goes out and has great MNF games but it would be interesting to see if he has some kind of "hangover" on a short week

Edited October 31, 2007 by Mojo Rising

[Steeltown Dre]

looks like an interesting week......Dre I was wondering do you have stats on how Favre/GB do after MNF.......it seems he always goes out and has great MNF games but it would be interesting to see if he has some kind of "hangover" on a short week

 

First, I'll give you GB's record w/ Farve at the helm on MNF:

 

18-15 SU

18-15 ATS

11-10 SU on the road

13-8 ATS on the road

5-7 SU as road dogs

7-5 ATS as road dogs

 

Streaks: Went 5-0 as road dogs on MNF from 1997-2005. Since their week 15 game at Bal in 2005 they have gone 0-3 ATS as road dogs, losing in Bal, Phi and Sea. They then won this past MNF as a road dog.

 

As for after a MNF game:

 

21-11 SU

19-11-2 ATS

 

If they won on MNF, the following Sunday they are:

 

13-4 SU

12-4-1 ATS

 

If they won on MNF AS A DOG, the following Sunday they are:

 

3-2 SU

3-1-1 ATS

 

Now, getting back to the 2nd set: If they won on MNF AND NOW PLAY ON THE ROAD:

 

4-3 SU

5-2 ATS

 

If they won on MNF and now play on the road AS A DOG:

 

1-2 SU

2-1 ATS

 

Removing the "won on" - if they played on MNF and now play on the road:

 

10-6 SU

11-5 ATS

 

If they played on MNF and now play on the road AS A DOG:

 

4-4 SU

5-3 ATS

Edited November 1, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Bronco Billy]

I love the moneyline on IND this week at +200. That's great odds given the situation.

 

I also love playing the original favorite when the line flips. That makes GB a good play IMO.

[Steeltown Dre]

I love the moneyline on IND this week at +200. That's great odds given the situation.

 

I also love playing the original favorite when the line flips. That makes GB a good play IMO.

 

You are not alone:

 

NE/Indy

Out of 21228 bets:

 

ATS:

 

75% NE

25% Ind

 

ML:

 

32% NE

68% Ind

 

O/U:

 

83% Over

17% Under

 

People right now are placing bets at a 3:1 rate on NE ATS vs Ind ATS but at a 2:1 rate Ind ML vs. NE ML.

[NavinRJohnson]

Dre, awesome thread as usual. Week in and week out, it's a great (educational and profitable) read. At first blush, those stats above on NEP/IND make me want to go against the public. I'll have to think hard on that...

 

Since we're on the Pats, what about their victims? Any trend info on teams that suffered massive defeats (by 30+ and 40+ points) and how they fared the next week? Thanks again for all the research and excellent info.

[Steeltown Dre]

Only time after Manning's rookie season that the Colts were home dogs:

 

The 1st game of his 2nd season they were 3 point home dogs to Buf. They won 31-14.

 

Since the 2nd game of the 1999 season, Indy have never been home dogs.

 

The closest they have come was:

 

1999 game 5; pickem vs. Mia. Indy lost 31-34

2001 game 16; -1 vs NYJ. Indy lost 28-29

2002 game 2; -1.5 vs. Mia. Indy lost

 

I also checked any home game that was relatively low (relatively being the key word) since Dungy came onboard in 2002:

 

Other than the 2006 MNF game vs Cin where Ind was a -3 fav and covered, you have to look back to 2003 for the last time they were even favored by less than 5 points at home.

 

There were 4 games in 02 and 03 where they were favored by less than 5. 2 were vs. Ten, 1 vs Mia (listed above) and 1 vs. NE. They beat Ten once and covered. The other 3 games they lost (and therefore did not cover).

 

So there aren't any trends to look back on for Indy being a home dog. Looking at them playing as a small home fav is not the same. However, I posted it just as an FYI.

[Steeltown Dre]

Dre, awesome thread as usual. Week in and week out, it's a great (educational and profitable) read. At first blush, those stats above on NEP/IND make me want to go against the public. I'll have to think hard on that...

 

Since we're on the Pats, what about their victims? Any trend info on teams that suffered massive defeats (by 30+ and 40+ points) and how they fared the next week? Thanks again for all the research and excellent info.

 

Excellent question: it was on my list to post.

 

Here's who NE has faced this year:

 

 

|  Week  |		 Opponent			  |  Result  |  Score  |+--------+-------------------------------+----------+---------+|	1   | at New York Jets			  |	 W	|  38-14  ||	2   |	San Diego Chargers		 |	 W	|  38-14  ||	3   |	Buffalo Bills			  |	 W	|  38- 7  ||	4   | at Cincinnati Bengals		 |	 W	|  34-13  ||	5   |	Cleveland Browns		   |	 W	|  34-17  ||	6   | at Dallas Cowboys			 |	 W	|  48-27  ||	7   | at Miami Dolphins			 |	 W	|  49-28  ||	8   |	Washington Redskins		|	 W	|  52- 7  |

 

 

I'll remove Cincy because they had a bye week 5 and then played week 6.

 

With all other teams who were destroyed by the Patriots, here's how they did the following week:

 

3-3 SU

5-1 ATS

 

Winners SU were Buf ov NYJ, Cle ov Mia, Dal ov Min

Losers SU were NYJ vs Bal, SD vs GB, Mia vs NYG

 

The only ATS loser was SD vs GB. That was a week 3 game in GB, SD was a -4.5 road fav and lost the game by a TD. Also was when SD had no identity and I think was still in shock that they were spanked 38-14 by NE after beating Chi to start their season. They thought they could contend w/ NE this year, and were not ready for the buzzsaw that was Belichick's wrath after being accused of cheating. They flew back across the country to SD, and then flew to GB. They were leading 21-17 heading into the 4th, and GB put up 14 in the 4th to SD's 3.

Edited November 1, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Avernus]

my philosophy has been to bet the Colts and Patriots...

 

so I am sticking with that...

[Steeltown Dre]

Teams off a bye this week (a lot this week):

 

Ari

KC

Atl

Sea

Dal

Bal

 

Teams w/ consistent coaching staff and their record off a bye:

 

KC: Herm started last year. They won off their bye, 41-0 as 7.5 point home favs to SF. Prior to Herm, they were 3-1 ATS off of byes since 2002.

Sea: since 2002 they are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS off of byes.

Bal: since 2002 they are 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS off of byes.

 

Teams w/o consistent coaching staff:

 

Ari: since 2002 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS off of byes

Atl: since 2002 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS off of byes

Dal: since 2002 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS off of byes

[NavinRJohnson]

With all other teams who were destroyed by the Patriots, here's how they did the following week:

 

3-3 SU

5-1 ATS

 

Winners SU were Buf ov NYJ, Cle ov Mia, Dal ov Min

Losers SU were NYJ vs Bal, SD vs GB, Mia vs NYG

 

Good info...Also, I think Gibbs may have the Redskins (-4) ready to play the woeful Jets this weekend. In 2005, they lost to the NYG 36-0 in Week 8 and came back to beat PHI in Week 9.

[Steeltown Dre]

Good info...Also, I think Gibbs may have the Redskins (-4) ready to play the woeful Jets this weekend. In 2005, they lost to the NYG 36-0 in Week 8 and came back to beat PHI in Week 9.

 

If the Skins to "get up" to play the Jets, it won't be because of Gibbs. I don't want to touch a nerve of any die hard skins fans out there, but this guy has been terrible for that team. He won't ride the team or get mad - very quiet person, who has gotten more quiet since his first tenure w/ the team. Personally, I thought Gibbs was a solid motivator and coach as well as offensive mind the first time around ('81-'92). But let's not forget, when his team won the SB, they had the GM of the year in Bobby Beathard getting him players, and the Owner was very good too. They had a good squad and Gibbs took them to a record of 124-60 over those years (avg of 10-5). That was w/ guys such as Theismann, Riggins, Clark, Sanders, Monk....

 

Since then, here are the coaches that have come along and were fired due to their "poor coaching/records":

 

Norv Turner: 50-61 (avg of 7-9)

Schottenheimer: 8-8

Spurrier: 12-20 (avg of 6-10)

 

Then they brought back Gibbs and he's gone 21-27 (avg of 7-9) his 3 years.

 

Gibbs went from calling the plays, to "managing" the team. That's really all he does now. You've got Al Saunders handing the offense and Greg Williams handling the defense. Gibbs also participates in their drafting and FA moves, and we all know they are pretty much bottom of the bottom when it comes to that in the NFL.

 

You would think they could us a motivating type coach who would get in some faces, especially w/ the pathetic record he put up since coming back.

 

Gibbs isn't that guy, and DC is calling for him to be fired. I don't think that will happen, but back to the point: if the Skins get the win, I don't think it will be because of Gibbs, judging on his lack of involvement in anything going on w/ either side of the ball and his indifferent attitude towards really "coaching" guys to improve on their problems. Skins fans feel free to tell me I'm wrong and why, without turning this into too much of a discussion on the Skins. We have more important things to worry about than Gibbs this week.... so I'll fall back now...

[NavinRJohnson]

Your Gibbs assessment/assassination is spot on. No argument here. All I am saying is for trendy purposes, he at least has that win against the Eagles in 05 after getting killed by the Giants.

Edited November 1, 2007 by NavinRJohnson

[Steeltown Dre]

Your Gibbs assessment/assassination is spot on. No argument here. All I am saying is for trendy purposes, he at least has that win against the Eagles in 05 after getting killed by the Giants.

 

Yea, good info. I looked and here's a fact:

 

Anytime from 04-present (Gibbs 2nd tenure) that the Skins have lost by more than 10 points, they are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS the following week.

 

Losses of of 9 or more points? 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS.

 

The only problem - in 2004 and 2005 combined they were 4-0 ATS. In week 3 of 2006 they won and covered to make them 5-0 ATS at that time. Since then, (starting week 6 of 2006) they have gone 0-3 SU and ATS following a loss of 9 or more points.

 

Now, if we look at higher margins, such as losses by 21 or more points, they are 1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS and 1-0 ATS as a fav.

 

It typically adds value to the line:

 

Teams losing by more than 20 points and playing on the road as Favs the following week are hitting 61% ATS since 89, 64% since 02, but are 0-2 this year. So typically it's helpful, though it's been slow of late.

[Steeltown Dre]

OK guys, huge week here for me.

 

First, I want to tell you that pretty much every single one of my system plays I put some amount of money on. I don't count those as part of my record, because I keep track to them separately. But these are some solid numbers this year. I've got a lot of plays there.

 

If you look at the records so far this year (combined), all my system plays (when I say system, I'm talking about my system that I built, not following a specific trend), they've gone a combined 150-73.

 

That's 67% winners!

 

My own plays that I post on Sundays are games I'm playing larger or in addition to these plays. I put in my system plays very early in the week, because I run it on Sun night once the lines are out for the following week's games. But the lines I'm using for purposes of tracking are lines that are available at the time of my post (I update the system again prior to posting).

 

Onto today's plays/discussion:

 

I got on NE super super early. I got them at -4.5 on Monday. I know spots where you can get Ind +6.5 right now. I like NE in this one, and I have a local who is extremely smart and lets his top clients do some live betting for big games (primetime and the top 1pm and 4pm games usually). Typically he doesn't get too many calls, but you can call him up and see if he'll give you a line. Sometimes he will, sometimes he won't. He does not let me do it anymore. But he has put me in touch w/ another guy who's not in my area but will take my money (for now - I like to do a lot of this when possible, and am pretty successful) and does a similar thing. I've heard he pretty much waits till end of a quarter, but I'm going to try to get a line after the first few minutes. (Pinny does live lines but only for primetime games.) My plan there is to see how the game starts. I already know that Ind +6.5 at home is great value. If NE starts off strong and builds a quick 10-14 point lead at some point in the 1st, most likely I can get even BETTER value by taking Indy after the 1st. Attempting the middle. But for now, I've put a lot down on NE -4.5. I also have put down on the Over. And a combo teaser. I do like NE to win, but I'm really looking for that middle and will be very willing to take Ind if the line is higher than +8, which it would be if NE comes out strong w/ a lead. I think both teams have been saving a little something for the other. Plays and formations that they haven't used much. Both will want to win, but at the same time, it's not the end of the world if they don't. This is not the SB or AFC Championship game, and if either team loses, it won't hurt their chances of meeting again in the AFCCG. But they'll both be gunning for the W today.

 

Other games I am on:

 

Cle, Jac, Phi, Pit (got in very early at -7.5 on this)

 

Some totals I'm going stronger on (than just my standard system play $):

 

Den/Det U

Ari/TB O

SD/Min O

Pit/Bal O

 

I know many bookies need Min to come through w/ all the SD bets out there. It's one of the most bet on games this weekend, and has the most lopsided %s of any game this weekend. I may or may not get on Min. You can find Min +8.5 out there... Also liked the Bills, but unsure now that Lossman is in. Another game I have not put in yet is Hou +3 - may or may not...

 

Wanted to get this up early, and I will come back to update/discuss throughout the morning. Good luck this week!

[Gdawg]

Dre, like the picks, especially the TB/AZ O38. I also like the NE -4.5, I got them at -5.

 

BTW, BOTH corners are likely out for Baltimore, I think PIT wins this game by double digits.

 

Don't do this often, but I'm going with a three team, 10 point teaser today.

 

PIT +1

SD +3 (SD is still only a -7 fav at Bookmaker.com)

NE +4.5

 

The first two I absolutely love. I can't see how BAL or MIN win those games.A little nervous about NE, but with Harrison likely out for IND, a decoy at best, and with reports that Watson will play for NE, I'm going to roll with it.

 

Incidentally, I do like MIN +7. I think they will cover but SD wins the game.

[Steeltown Dre]

Dre, like the picks, especially the TB/AZ O38. I also like the NE -4.5, I got them at -5.

 

BTW, BOTH corners are likely out for Baltimore, I think PIT wins this game by double digits.

 

Don't do this often, but I'm going with a three team, 10 point teaser today.

 

PIT +1

SD +3 (SD is still only a -7 fav at Bookmaker.com)

NE +4.5

 

The first two I absolutely love. I can't see how BAL or MIN win those games.A little nervous about NE, but with Harrison likely out for IND, a decoy at best, and with reports that Watson will play for NE, I'm going to roll with it.

 

Incidentally, I do like MIN +7. I think they will cover but SD wins the game.

 

That teaser does not look bad. Teasing the fav down is typically the way to go, and while many say "don't cross zero", I can tell you that is a 100% false myth. I think I posted an article on that before, but I'll post an updated article next week (it's actually already written and posted on my site, but I never posted it here last week (forgot) and will wait till mid-week, when people arent' focused on last minute selections.)

 

As for Min, my play on them is more a fade of SD than a play on Min. For 2 reasons. #1 is the public %s taking SD, books reallly REALLY need Min + points to come through.

 

#2 is a system I have (trend, not system play) which says fade SD. It has not had a play yet this year, but has gone 7-1 ATS (88%) since 2002 and 21-13 ATS (62%) since 1989. We'll see how that goes this week, again - past results do not guarantee future performance.

Edited November 4, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Gdawg]

That teaser does not look bad. Teasing the fav down is typically the way to go, and while many say "don't cross zero", I can tell you that is a 100% false myth. I think I posted an article on that before, but I'll post an updated article next week (it's actually already written and posted on my site, but I never posted it here last week (forgot) and will wait till mid-week, when people arent' focused on last minute selections.)

 

As for Min, my play on them is more a fade of SD than a play on Min. For 2 reasons. #1 is the public %s taking SD, books reallly REALLY need Min + points to come through.

 

#2 is a system I have (trend, not system play) which says fade SD. It has not had a play yet this year, but has gone 7-1 ATS (88%) since 2002 and 21-13 ATS (62%) since 1989. We'll see how that goes this week, again - past results do not guarantee future performance.

 

I hardly ever go the teaser route but I feel pretty good about it, we'll see what happens

 

The public is all over SD, but the line hasn't budged a bit at Bookmaker.

[Steeltown Dre]

I hardly ever go the teaser route but I feel pretty good about it, we'll see what happens

 

The public is all over SD, but the line hasn't budged a bit at Bookmaker.

 

Line hasn't budged, and in some cases, they've lowered the juice to make SD a more attractive bet...

 

I'll tell you one other crazy thing: There has only been 2 times since 1989 that a home team has been a 7 or more point dog but has averaged 70 or more rushing ypg than it's opponent. And the other 2 times, it was in week 2 and week 3 (early in the season).

 

But in both cases, the team w/ a better rushing game has won ATS. This isn't my "trend" I mentioned earlier, but I just looked it up now and it is interesting...

 

The 1st time was 2001 Cin +7 vs Bal in week 3 and Cin won and covered

2nd time was this year 2007 Ten vs Ind +7 in week 2 and Ten lost but covered

[rattsass]

Here is what I am playing today

 

Buf +2

Ten -5

Det -3

Cleve -1.5

 

I like the way you are playing that Colts game Dre. Definitely like the over in that one too.

[Steeltown Dre]

Like em rat. That Ten/Car game is tricky and I'm staying away. I'd lean Det in that one and obviously like Cle and Buf. Good luck.