Week 10 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Looking a bit into Cle/Pit:

 

Cle has really stepped it up in a huge way since losing to Pit in week 1. They are 5-2 since then, and have won 3 in a row. What I like about them is their ability to come back in games to get covers. Since that loss to Pit, they are 6-1 ATS. But, let's look at their D. The only team who has scored less than 20 points on them is Bal, and we know how bad Bal's offense has been.

 

But it's not like they've been facing top offenses. They allowed 20 to StL (season avg 12), 33 to Sea (season avg 21), 31 to Mia (season avg 21), 45 to Cin (season avg 25), and 26 to Oak (season avg 19). Those season averages INCLUDE their game w/ Cle. So if you extracted that game, Cle is allowing these teams to score much much more than they normally put up.

 

Pit has been on a roll and really needs this game to stay in control of the AFC North. But should Cle win, they would be both sitting there in 1st at 6-3. So a lot of incentive for both to get the W.

 

The line is high for a few reasons:

 

#1 Pit did win in Cle in week 1 34-7. But I admit, Cle has come a long way from there.

#2 Pit has owned Cle in the past. Since Ben came to town in 2004, Pit is 6-1 ATS and 7-0 vs Cle.

#3 Pit has never beaten Cle in those 7 games by fewer than 11 points except in the 1 game where they pushed as a 4 point fav in Cle

 

So that's why the line is so high. Looking at the other side, those thinking it is too high may say:

 

In prior matchups, the highest the line was set was Pit -7.5. It was Pit -7 twice. So this is a very high line for a team who is 2 games over .500 and has won 3 in a row, (4 of 5). In fact, there have been just 3 teams in the last 15 years who have faced similar odds. Those being: a line of +8 or more points despite winning 3 in a row, and being 2 games over .500. Those teams did go 1-2 ATS and 0-3 SU. But it happens so infrequently, I'd hardly call that a good "trend". So for that reason, this -9.5 line could be considered high.

 

A couple of trends on the game. First, one in favor of Pit shows that are high scoring, such as Cle, and average more than 26 points (Cle averages 28.4 points) and are dogs of +8 or more points halfway through the season or later have gone 0-6 ATS the last 15 years, and 0-4 since 2002. I restricted it to halfway through the season, as it might be easy for a team to average 26.1 points in their first 2 or 3 games. But after 8 games, a team who puts up these points is a team who can score pretty freely against most opponents.

 

Now, for a trend in favor of Cle. Teams that won as a small home fav last week (3 or fewer points) despite being down at the end of the first, second, and third quarters, have gone 10-1 ATS as road dogs the following week in the last 18 years. If you just look at the last 10 years, they have gone 7-0 ATS. The last time it happened was in week 4 of this season, when KC was 11.5 point road dogs at SD and won the game 30-16.

 

This game is one which you can make arguments for taking either team. The 2 combine to avg 75% overs, the most of any 2 teams playing this weekend. Which is why the total is the second highest of any game this week, at 47.5 points.

 

My system is leaning towards Pit, and has considered them to be a top 5 play. But as far as making a further play on top of my standard top 5 amount, I have not added any money on the game.

 

What are your thoughts on the game?

[rattsass]

My head tells me Pittsburgh is the play. My gut says watch out for Cleveland. Call me crazy but I am leaning toward Cleveland and the points. If it goes 10.5 or higher I'm probably in.

Edited November 9, 2007 by rattsass

[Gdawg]

Looking a bit into Cle/Pit:

 

My system is leaning towards Pit, and has considered them to be a top 5 play. But as far as making a further play on top of my standard top 5 amount, I have not added any money on the game.

 

What are your thoughts on the game?

 

At first glance, I'd have to go with PIT.

 

As we all know, CLE plays simply awful defense. As you pointed out Dre, they surrender a LOT of points, even when matched against sub-par offenses.

 

The PIT offense is white-hot right now. Big Ben has a nice array of weapons, having Ward and Holmes, and finally Heath Miller has been allowed to play a larger role. The running game is rock solid thanks to Parker, with Davenport in reserve. I think this is the most balanced attack CLE has encountered thus far this season, and it should have little trouble putting up some serious points.

 

Offensively this is a poor matchup for CLE. Anderson has some real weapons in Winslow and Edwards, but CLE really can't run the ball. Aside from a couple VERY nice games, Jamal Lewis has done little; those games came against teams which are unable to stop the run. PIT has a very good rushing defense and knows it has little to fear from the CLE rushing attack, so it should be able to concentrate on shutting down the passing game.

 

I think PIT will win this game going away. I can't see CLE having much, if any success running the ball and PIT should be able to limit the damage Anderson et al will be able to do through the air. Barring a back door cover in garbage time, I think PIT is the way to go.

[Steeltown Dre]

Since I have the time, I'm doing this "thinking outloud" on certain games. Usually I won't post this, but here's another one:

 

GB vs Min

 

This is an interesing matchup. My system shows a line should be -6.3 and it's -6 right now, and opened at -6.5. So nothing to call my attention to one team or another from my system.

 

The reason why this is so interesting is that Min has actually dominated this series over the last 5 years from a betting perspective. They have gone 7-4 ATS. Of course, some of these games were w/ Moss and Culpepper, but the lines would obviously reflect that, and their stay in Min ended in 2004. But what is really suprising is this is one of those Reverse-Home-Field-Advantage series. The last 5 years, Min is 2-4 ATS at home, but 5-0 ATS in GB.

 

In their first matchup, GB won by 7 as a -1 road fav. The game was a FG battle for the most part, each team kicking 3. Farve threw the ball around a lot, attempting 45 passes (for 344 yards), as GB can't run and Min can stop it. He spread it to many different WRs and threw 2 TDs. AD or AP, whatever you prefer, averaged 9.3 ypr on just 12 carries to get 112 yards. But he didn't score a TD, and Holcomb threw a lot also (39 passes) and for 258 yards.

 

I've got a few trend systems that like GB here, and have a really good history. But one which is good and likes Min. Right now the public is actually backing Min, w/ 56% spread and 82% ML. The Vikings have not been much of a public team this year, and GB has been. I think this is totally stemming from the fact that AP/AD is a beast, talking heads are calling him the best pure rusher in the league, and they just came back in the 2nd half to destroy SD last week.

 

But GB is 7-1, and the public knows it. GB has been great as a dog, but not so much as a fav. They were dogs the first 3 games, even though 2 were at home, because they were facing supposedly "tough" teams of Phi and SD. They won and covered their first 3 as dogs. They then were favored in their next 3, 2 of which were at home. They went on the road to Min and covered as a -1 point fav, and then lost to Chi at home and pushed to Was at home. Even standing at 5-1, they were dogs at Den (Mile High percieved HFA) and won there, and they were dogs at KC (Arrowhead perceived HFA) and won there. So as dogs they've been 5-0 (3-0 away, 2-0 home). But as favs, they beeen 1-1-1, and 0-1-1 at home.

 

I don't see much value in the line, but at this point if I was making a selection, I'd lean towards GB. Look forward to hear from those who are leaning towards Min, and why.

 

As for that Oak/Chi game, I do like Oak, but I'm not sure what Kiffin is trying to accomplish w/ his disrespect towards Hester mid-week except getting his name in the media. "Testing" your special teams should come naturally in the game or acutely in practice. In a game, you should not intentionally try to "test" someone or something, you should play to win. If you're best shot at winning is to kick away from a dangerous return guy, then you should do that. Especially if you've now (in a way) insulted the dangerous return guy. You don't think Chi will be extra fired up to get some big plays on special teams? And unfortunately for bettors, especially AGAINST Chi, you know how easily a win can turn to a loss to a rout when you involve key plays on special teams. We learned it last year when we played ON Chi, riding their solid ATS record. And if you were just doing it for "disinformation", and kick away from the guy, then I think the mental edge still goes to Chi, as they realize you were too chicken to man up to your bold promise. Regardless of what it does to Chi mentally, and whether they do or don't kick to Hester, this certainly does not HELP Oak in any way, shape, or form.

[Steeltown Dre]

Barring a back door cover in garbage time, I think PIT is the way to go.

 

That would be my exact concern. Let's look at some games:

 

Cle @ Oak, Oak is up 6 at the half, Cle comes back in the 2nd half and loses but covers

Cle @ NE, NE is up 20 at the half, Cle comes back in the 2nd half and is only down by 10 w/ 1 minute to go and NE scores a TD (a FG and Cle would have covered).

Cle @ StL, StL is up 11 after the 1st quarter, Cle comes back and ties it up at half, and goes on to get a win and cover

Cle vs Sea, Cle is down by 12 at the half, cut it to down by 8 after the 3rd, and come back to get the win and cover in OT.

 

Now, if you take any other team besides NE this year, no one would have gone for a TD w/ a 10 point lead and 42 seconds left in the game. So that almost would have been a cover against the Steelers and most other teams in that situation. So in all those games, w/ the exception of Oak, Cle was down by DD either after the 1st or at the half, and cambe back to cover all and win 2.

 

Granted, the Steelers are not the Rams, Seahawks or Raiders. I like the Steelers to get the lead, I just wonder tough it will be for Cle to come back and get a late cover. They've done it against worse competition (save for the Pats). Can they do it this weekend is the question....

[Gdawg]

That would be my exact concern. Let's look at some games:

 

Cle @ Oak, Oak is up 6 at the half, Cle comes back in the 2nd half and loses but covers

Cle @ NE, NE is up 20 at the half, Cle comes back in the 2nd half and is only down by 10 w/ 1 minute to go and NE scores a TD (a FG and Cle would have covered).

Cle @ StL, StL is up 11 after the 1st quarter, Cle comes back and ties it up at half, and goes on to get a win and cover

Cle vs Sea, Cle is down by 12 at the half, cut it to down by 8 after the 3rd, and come back to get the win and cover in OT.

 

Now, if you take any other team besides NE this year, no one would have gone for a TD w/ a 10 point lead and 42 seconds left in the game. So that almost would have been a cover against the Steelers and most other teams in that situation. So in all those games, w/ the exception of Oak, Cle was down by DD either after the 1st or at the half, and cambe back to cover all and win 2.

 

Granted, the Steelers are not the Rams, Seahawks or Raiders. I like the Steelers to get the lead, I just wonder tough it will be for Cle to come back and get a late cover. They've done it against worse competition (save for the Pats). Can they do it this weekend is the question....

 

I think PIT will hold them down. True, NE BARELY (and should'nt have) covered, but I think they were looking ahead; NE looked highly disinterested in the 3rd quarter, which allowed CLE to climb back into the game. PIT will not be looking ahead to next week (NYJ). I think PIT looks to make yet another statement as to which team is the true power in the division this year.

[stduke]

TITANS -4

I like the Titans -4

 

 

1st off the Jags are banged up and whoever plays QB for them this week they are still a very 1 sided team and thats run. Tennessee has the #1 run defense in the NFL!

 

2nd and this is HUGE IMO Jacksonville is playing there 3rd straight road game. That does not happen much in the NFL because the league and the owners understand that is a hard thing to over come. Back to back road games is tough enough but a 3rd?!?!?

 

3rd The Jags defense who is always very tough vs. the run is average at best this year PLUS this week is the 1st week of a 4 game susspension of Marcus Stroud the heart and soul of that defense. Plus add to the fact that Jack Del Rio added a 2nd game to the suspensions of Justin Durant and Richard Collier.

 

4th this ties in with #3 NFL meet LenDale White. This guy has been overshadowed going back to college. Reggie Bush got the hype White got the TD's. Now this guy is a great back but you never hear of him. I think he will have a huge game this week.

 

5th The Titans have Vince Young his stats SUCK all except the Wins stat. Even though he has not thrown a TD pass since September he finds ways to win. I think after Jacksonville brings the LB's up to try and stuff the run. Vince Young will find a few open recievers for a few scores.

 

Just some thoughts here...any other insight appreciated

[Steeltown Dre]

Ten is in my top 5 and I like the analysis. Some info on teams in their 3rd road game in a row.

 

Since 2002, teams who are in their 3rd road game in a row and are dogs in that game have gone 4-7-1 ATS. 2006 was actually the only winning year of those 4, going 2-1-1 ATS. All others were losing. If you factor in that the road team is only a small road dog of less than a TD, they are 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS. Taking it back to 89: 17-25-1 ATS

 

 

season	ATS2007	0-0-0 2006	0-1-1 2005	0-1-0 2003	0-1-0 2002	1-3-0 2001	2-2-0 2000	1-2-0 1999	1-1-0 1998	0-2-0 1997	2-2-0 1996	2-0-0 1995	3-1-0 1994	0-2-0 1993	1-0-0 1992	0-1-0 1991	2-1-0 1990	1-5-0 1989	1-0-0

 

[Gdawg]

Dre, question for you:

 

Once you run your simulations, what part, if any, do critical injuries play in your decision-making?

 

Say for example PIT was one of your top leans, but Big Ben was OUT for the week.

 

Just curious.

[Gdawg]

TITANS -4

I like the Titans -4

 

2nd and this is HUGE IMO Jacksonville is playing there 3rd straight road game. That does not happen much in the NFL because the league and the owners understand that is a hard thing to over come. Back to back road games is tough enough but a 3rd?!?!?

 

Yeah, you hardly EVER see this...given this and the JAX injuries it looks like a good call!

Edited November 9, 2007 by Gdawg

[wildcat2334]

really liking..................

 

 

WAS - 2.5

AZ - PK

[Steeltown Dre]

Dre, question for you:

 

Once you run your simulations, what part, if any, do critical injuries play in your decision-making?

 

Say for example PIT was one of your top leans, but Big Ben was OUT for the week.

 

Just curious.

 

I don't factor injuries into my database at all. I could add some factor that rated team health, but this would be pretty difficult. So many GTD and so many times that players play through injuries.

 

In addition, the line would factor the injury in already. In fact, every stat that we post, the line "should" already factor it in. However, to what extent is the key. Remember, the linesetting is basically measuring public's temperature to the teams involved. But if the general public thinks one way, and does not consider certain "inside" stats or trends, then you can take advantage of those situations.

 

So, to answer your question of what I do if there is a key injury:

 

Let's say Ben was out Sunday. The line wouldn't be -9.5 anymore, and probably would be -7. But my system would still show Pit winning by 18. So it would show a value of 11. I would have to, on my own, determine how many points I should deduct for Ben's injury, and whether I would make the play or not.

[Steeltown Dre]

Car/Atl bettors:

 

Have you seen this on Car's QB situation: http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/10462800

[Gdawg]

I don't factor injuries into my database at all. I could add some factor that rated team health, but this would be pretty difficult. So many GTD and so many times that players play through injuries.

 

In addition, the line would factor the injury in already. In fact, every stat that we post, the line "should" already factor it in. However, to what extent is the key. Remember, the linesetting is basically measuring public's temperature to the teams involved. But if the general public thinks one way, and does not consider certain "inside" stats or trends, then you can take advantage of those situations.

 

So, to answer your question of what I do if there is a key injury:

 

Let's say Ben was out Sunday. The line wouldn't be -9.5 anymore, and probably would be -7. But my system would still show Pit winning by 18. So it would show a value of 11. I would have to, on my own, determine how many points I should deduct for Ben's injury, and whether I would make the play or not.

 

Ah, I see. Should have made the connection but didn't. Thanks Dre, as I said was just curious.

[Gdawg]

Car/Atl bettors:

 

Have you seen this on Car's QB situation: http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/10462800

 

Whoah, what a mess.

 

Is Steve Deberg still available?

[Gdawg]

Here are the games I'm looking at for tomorrow:

 

TEN -3 (buy one point)

MIA +3

PIT -9.5 (buy 1/2 point)

MIN +7.5 (buy one point)

OAK +3.5

NO -9.5 (buy 1/2 point)

ATL/CAR U 36.5

DEN +3

PHI +3

 

Be back in the morning to check in. Hopefully do better tomorrow than I did today Oh well, we'll get 'em tomorrow.

[BAKE]

Straight up - No pt Spreads:

 

ATL or CAR.

 

PHL or WAS.

 

CN or BAL.

[rattsass]

Today I am bucking the traditional. Road favorites for me.

 

Dallas -2

Buff -3

 

I also have Detroit +1. Yes, it is a day full of public favorites for me. Definitely playing with fire. But I just calls em likes I sees em!!

 

Also like Washington -3.

Edited November 11, 2007 by rattsass

[Steeltown Dre]

Here are the games I'm looking at for tomorrow:

 

Like TEN -3 (buy one point)

Like MIA +3

Like PIT -9.5 (buy 1/2 point)

Don't like MIN +7.5 (buy one point)

Like OAK +3.5

Like NO -9.5 (buy 1/2 point)

Like ATL/CAR U 36.5

Decent pub. fade, but no opinion DEN +3

No opinion PHI +3

 

Be back in the morning to check in. Hopefully do better tomorrow than I did today Oh well, we'll get 'em tomorrow.

 

Good luck Gdawg

Edited November 11, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

Today I am bucking the traditional. Road favorites for me.

 

Dallas -2

Buff -3

 

I also have Detroit +1. Yes, it is a day full of public favorites for me. Definitely playing with fire. But I just calls em likes I sees em!!

 

Also like Washington -3.

 

You've been hot of late, and small road favs are not necessairly a terrible bet, but are just under .500. 8-9 so far this year, here's the last 5 years:

 

ATS season

8-9-0 2007

18-16-0 2006

20-13-1 2005

16-22-2 2004

15-12-2 2003

18-26-2 2002

 

Since 02: 95-98-7

 

As you know I'm rolling the dice on Mia, even though it's always tough to put your money on bad teams.

 

That Det/Az game is a tough one. I will tell you this - one buddy of mine who gets some good info is riding hard w/ AZ. It seems a lot of sharp money is on em, and several other sharp guys I know are on em as well.

[Gdawg]

Good luck Gdawg

 

Thanks Dre, same to you.

 

I went with PHI and DEN for a couple reasons. PHI always seems to bounce back nicely against WAS if they lose the first matchup. DEN along the same lines, after a bad loss they too seem to bounce-back well, and there is always the Arrowhead home-field misperception.

 

MIN is risky in my book, but I like the action, so I'm going to let it ride

 

What are you looking at today?

 

Rat, you went against your Crazy as Hell pick

Edited November 11, 2007 by Gdawg

[Steeltown Dre]

I'll add this: Supposedly these guys are red hot on their 11* plays:

 

Confidential Kick Off from the Gold Sheet

 

 

11* BUFFALO over *Miami

 

Late Score Forecast:

 

BUFFALO 31 - *Miami 16

There was no "drawing board" for Miami HC Cam Cameron to go back to during winless Dolphins' bye week. After all, the triumvirate that was supposed to be the cornerstone of '07 Miami offense when the regular season commenced is either done for the year with injury (QB Trent Green & RB Ronnie Brown) or has been traded away (WR Chris Chambers), leaving behind a makeshift attack and a leaky "D" allowing NFL-worst 31 ppg. And now Cameron is apparently ready to let BYU rookie QB John Beck sink or swim for the rest of the campaign. So, this becomes a great chance for Dick Jauron's surging Buffalo bunch (won last 3, covered last 5) to continue recent uptick, especially with rookie RB Lynch (153 YR last week) emerging as the playmaker that Bills "O" previously lacked.

[rattsass]

You've been hot of late, and small road favs are not necessairly a terrible bet, but are just under .500. 8-9 so far this year, here's the last 5 years:

 

That Det/Az game is a tough one. I will tell you this - one buddy of mine who gets some good info is riding hard w/ AZ. It seems a lot of sharp money is on em, and several other sharp guys I know are on em as well.

 

Oh I know. The sharp money is on Arizona big time, and to tell you the truth I understand their enthusiasm. Detroit doesn't win games like this on the road. It makes no sense, but I think the Lions win this game.

[Gdawg]

With regard to the AZ game, I know a couple guys that are all over them too.

 

DET has two road wins, @ OAK and @ CHI, they also have two TERRIBLE losses, @ PHI, @ WAS.

 

Which DET team shows up today?

 

I'd lean towards AZ myself. Not convinced DET is all that great on the road just yet.

[Gdawg]

I'll add this: Supposedly these guys are red hot on their 11* plays:

 

Confidential Kick Off from the Gold Sheet

11* BUFFALO over *Miami

 

Late Score Forecast:

 

BUFFALO 31 - *Miami 16

There was no "drawing board" for Miami HC Cam Cameron to go back to during winless Dolphins' bye week. After all, the triumvirate that was supposed to be the cornerstone of '07 Miami offense when the regular season commenced is either done for the year with injury (QB Trent Green & RB Ronnie Brown) or has been traded away (WR Chris Chambers), leaving behind a makeshift attack and a leaky "D" allowing NFL-worst 31 ppg. And now Cameron is apparently ready to let BYU rookie QB John Beck sink or swim for the rest of the campaign. So, this becomes a great chance for Dick Jauron's surging Buffalo bunch (won last 3, covered last 5) to continue recent uptick, especially with rookie RB Lynch (153 YR last week) emerging as the playmaker that Bills "O" previously lacked.

 

I thought that Lemon had already been named the starter this week?