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New BCS rankings


budlitebrad
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1  LSU	9-1	1	2742	.9793	1	1457	.9713	.9900	2	.9802  Oregon	8-1	2	2651	.9468	2	1407	.9380	.9300	3	.9383  Kansas	10-0	4	2498	.8921	4	1344	.8960	.9400	4	.9094  Oklahoma	9-1	3	2580	.9214	3	1366	.9107	.7300	5	.8545  Missouri	9-1	6	2248	.8029	6	1194	.7960	.8300	6	.8106  West Virginia	8-1	5	2278	.8136	5	1238	.8253	.7200	7	.7867  Ohio State	10-1	7	2100	.7500	7	1145	.7633	.8100	1	.7748  Arizona State	9-1	8	1919	.6854	8	1042	.6947	.8700	9	.7509  Georgia	8-2	9	1840	.6571	9	1005	.6700	.6900	10	.67210 Virginia Tech	8-2	10	1665	.5946	10	923	.6153	.6300	11	.613

 

Edited by budlitebrad
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How much of all the voting by the experienced coaches/writers is based on who they think can/will get to the NC title game vs., who they think deserves to get there? In other words, is it more important for the voters to be able to say, 'See, I was right,' or should it be more 'These are the teams that deserve it the most, no matter what.' Or is that the extra dimension that the computers try to get to, the actual SOS for the teams? But don't the computers take the rankings into account, so its a bit circular still? I wonder sometimes....

 

The basis for my questions above is this, using my conference the Pac10 as an example: is the easier path taken into account, based on home vs. away schedule? The Ducks had USC, Cal and ASU at home, making their path to the top quite a bit easier than last year. USC had the opposite, with a much tougher road this year than last. (I am excited about next year though!) ASU is in the middle, with the Ducks on the road and USC at home.

 

Now that the Ducks are past the toughest games, they just need to take care of business vs. UCLA and the rivalry with the Beavers - and they should. I'm assuming its the same with the other conferences too, (although the ones with CC games at least have one more big hurdle at the end, to 'prove themselves' a bit more.) This would put LSU in a nice position too, but for some reason the Sooners are on the outside looking in now, but perhaps its the Big12's turn, after the SEC and Pac10 have lost out in the past.

 

If my hunch about the egos of the voters is right, momentum and early predictions are HUGE. Look at how long Cal hung in the top 25 with 3 losses, until USC finally kicked them out - voters don't like admitting how wrong they were. Or the Sooners getting into the title game vs. LSU after losing by 4 TDs to KSU. Simple human nature at work. And of course, injuries and early losses (on the psyches of young players) are factors, as the team that the mighty Ducks lost to at home has now lost 4 in a row.

 

Specifically, the early 'buzz' about which conference is stronger 'top to bottom', (or at least the top 4-5 teams) is the #1 factor, rightfully making it a big topic on these boards. Followed closely by the preseason/early season predictions, which are the keys to the first BCS ranking, despite the BCS waiting a few weeks, in a small attempt at weeding out a few more pretenders. Early season wins are so bogus, with the pitiful non-conf. schedules of the LSU's of the world, that it does nothing to help predict real good teams, yet it starts the early momentum in the polls. The truly sincere voters (aka non-Homers, therefore a small minority) in August/September could take things into account like coach changes, recruiting, key injuries, senior leadership, etc. but its almost purely 'perceived conference strength' and predicting who among the ttop 2-3 teams in each conference should make it through.

 

So if the SEC is 'clearly' or almost clearly, the best conference this year, any 1 loss team there will have an advantage over the other 1-loss contenders, and then you just look at the team in the SEC with the easiest road schedule and 'predict' that team as the top one. The Pac10 is probably considered #2 overall, making the current top 2 teams predictable.

 

So as much as we bitch about the same old topics - i.e. conference strength and preseason/early season polls (both of which are loathed here on the boards for good reason) - that's really what this whole BCS farce comes down to.

 

How far off am I?

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How much of all the voting by the experienced coaches/writers is based on who they think can/will get to the NC title game vs., who they think deserves to get there? In other words, is it more important for the voters to be able to say, 'See, I was right,' or should it be more 'These are the teams that deserve it the most, no matter what.' Or is that the extra dimension that the computers try to get to, the actual SOS for the teams? But don't the computers take the rankings into account, so its a bit circular still? I wonder sometimes....

 

So as much as we bitch about the same old topics - i.e. conference strength and preseason/early season polls (both of which are loathed here on the boards for good reason) - that's really what this whole BCS farce comes down to.

 

How far off am I?

 

Probably not that far off with the human polls like AP, but the BCS rankings are more likely to rank teams on which ones deserve to get there. You can thank the computer rankings for that. Computers are much less subjective than the human polls. That's why you had teams like Ohio State ranked #1, Boston College and South Florida sneaking up the BCS polls and now you have teams like Oregon, Kansas and Missouri right up there even though Ohio State and even USC would likely be favored to beat Kansas and Missouri should they matchup in a bowl game. That's why it's nice to have computers as part of the BCS rankings.

 

The computer rankings like Colley really help the up and coming teams because it has no bias towards conference, tradition, history, etc. In short it has no preseason rankings all the teams start out even at the beginning of the season. Interestingly their rankings are not that far off from the BCS except they have Oklahoma ranked #9 and Arizona State ranked #3.

 

The bottom line in these comparisons, is that the Colley rankings have agreed in all four years with the media and coaches on the national champion,

most often agreed on the top 5, and agreed on the top 10 within a place or two,

 

http://www.colleyrankings.com/advan.html

 

Colley Computer Top 25—Nov 12

1. LSU

2. OREGON

3. ARIZONA ST

4. KANSAS

5. OHIO STATE

6. MISSOURI

7. GEORGIA

8. WEST VIRGINIA

9. OKLAHOMA

10. FLORIDA

Edited by Rockerbraves
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I'm all for a monster showdown between LSU and Oregon, but realistically, don't you have a bad taste in your mouth if Kansas runs the table and gets left out?

I totally agree, What kind if message is being sent here. Correct me if Im wrong, But doesnt LSU and the ducks have a loss? This is why there will never be a real National Championship. PLAYOFF !!!!! Other wise its a popularity contest. WHAT THE PEOPLE WANT.....If a team in the Big12 goes undefeated, and still doesnt geta shot.... Then why even bother...

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8 major conferences, all with 12 teams in 2 divisions = 96 teams. The other 23 or so go down to DivAA - are there really more than 96 teams who can compete? 11 regular season games with 1 playoff for each conf. on 12/1 weekend. Bowl games still played until 1/1, with 8 Conf. Champ in the 4 BCS games on 1/1. The only controversy is how the conf.'s decide their own championship teams, with some 1 or 2-loss teams left out, but you'd play all 5 of your fellow div. teams, so head to head wins take away some of that controversy too.

 

Then the 4 winning teams play in 2 games the next week, with the NC game the following week. Its all over by mid-January with only 3 extra games, and we have a true champion. What's not to like? Who's in?

Edited by Coffeeman
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I totally agree, What kind if message is being sent here. Correct me if Im wrong, But doesnt LSU and the ducks have a loss? This is why there will never be a real National Championship. PLAYOFF !!!!! Other wise its a popularity contest. WHAT THE PEOPLE WANT.....If a team in the Big12 goes undefeated, and still doesnt geta shot.... Then why even bother...

Do you guys seriously think Kansas will run the table and not make it to the NC game? Not me. That makes 3 out of 3. Pollsters aren't that much different than us. Kansas in if they win out.

 

A more realistic question might be. If Oklahoma beat an undefeated Kansas team in the Big 12 Championship should a 12-1 Sooner team get in over an 11-1 Oregon team? :D

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8 major conferences, all with 12 teams in 2 divisions = 96 teams. The other 23 or so go down to DivAA - are there really more than 96 teams who can compete? 11 regular seeason games with 1 playoff for each conf. on 12/1 weekend. Bowl games still played until 1/1, with 8 teams selected for the 4 BCS games on 1/1. That is the point where controversy could still come into play, with some 1 or 2-loss teams left out, but then the regular season and polls/BCS ranking system are all still very important and viable too, right??

 

Then the 4 winning teams play in 2 games the next week, with the NC game the following week. Its all over by mid-January with only 3 extra games, and we have a true champion. Who's in?

 

The only people who really want a playoff are the fans/media. The conferences don't want it, the coaches don't want it, the bowl organizers don't want it. And frankly, if push came to shove, I doubt TV really wants it (35 bowl games offer a lot more programming than a playoff).

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The only people who really want a playoff are the fans/media.

 

So....if the fans pay all the $, why is this bad again? And I said most of the bowl games still happen = not much $ lost there....

Edited by Coffeeman
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So....if the fans pay all the $, why is this bad again? And I said most of the bowl games still happen = not much $ lost there....

 

Fans dole $$$ out to their teams. Bowl committees and television dole out $$$ to conferences. Conferences are more powerful than individual teams.

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The only people who really want a playoff are the fans/media. The conferences don't want it, the coaches don't want it, the bowl organizers don't want it. And frankly, if push came to shove, I doubt TV really wants it (35 bowl games offer a lot more programming than a playoff).

But as he has done with the public outcry, Delany largely has ignored the coaches' call for a playoff. He readily admits a playoff could be good for Division I-A football at large but quickly adds, "I don't work for college football at large." Delany, according to one colleague, can exhibit "Doberman-like aggressiveness." With a bite to match his bark, he further has enriched the wealthiest conferences and cemented the BCS system that has drawn the ire from two of the most powerful men in his own conference – Penn State football coach Joe Paterno and Michigan football coach Lloyd Carr

 

That sentiment has frustrated the likes of DeLoss Dodds, athletic director at the University of Texas who fought for a playoff for 10 years. He finally abandoned his efforts in part because of Delany. Dodds said it became increasingly clear that the alliance of the Big Ten, Pac-10 and Rose Bowl would block his efforts or any others to implement the playoff.

 

Of course without Delany, there might not even be a BCS.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news?slug=jo...o&type=lgns

Edited by Rockerbraves
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But as he has done with the public outcry, Delany largely has ignored the coaches' call for a playoff. He readily admits a playoff could be good for Division I-A football at large but quickly adds, "I don't work for college football at large." Delany, according to one colleague, can exhibit "Doberman-like aggressiveness." With a bite to match his bark, he further has enriched the wealthiest conferences and cemented the BCS system that has drawn the ire from two of the most powerful men in his own conference – Penn State football coach Joe Paterno and Michigan football coach Lloyd Carr

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news?slug=jo...o&type=lgns

 

What does that have to do with anything?

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Thought you said the coaches didn't want it. :D

 

As far as the TV not wanting it, that's total BS. Maybe ABC might not want it since they just signed a Rose Bowl deal, but their are others that would love a playoff.

 

If you can find me a poll of college coaches that says they want a playoff, go for it. Because I believe for the most part that coaches tend to not to favor an expansion in how their performance can be evaluated.

 

If TV wanted a playoff, there would be one. In the meantime, there are hundreds of hours of cheap, built in audience, holiday season programming that advertisers and broadcasters alike drool over.

 

And quit it with your southern victimhood baloney. The SEC is the biggest, baddest, most powerful conference in the land. Ask every national media pundit.You have a market area that equates to 1/4 of the country. The Pac-10 is 4 states, 3 hours behind everyone else. The Big 10 doesn't even have the biggest college football program in their region within its ranks.

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I'm all for a monster showdown between LSU and Oregon, but realistically, don't you have a bad taste in your mouth if Kansas runs the table and gets left out?

 

 

GTS- if KU were to run the table, (highly unlikely they beat Mizzou AND OKL) - but if they do- they can book a reservation for the NC without any trouble. They would leap both Oregon and LSU IMO

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GTS- if KU were to run the table, (highly unlikely they beat Mizzou AND OKL) - but if they do- they can book a reservation for the NC without any trouble. They would leap both Oregon and LSU IMO

 

How is that necessarily more impressive than what Oregon has done? Or even LSU? I agree that the pollsters will get a ration of poo if they leave Kansas out after the Mizzou game and they're undefeated, and probably vote them in, which is just as ridiculous.

 

Were we really any worse off under the old way of doing things?

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