Week 12 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

Steeltown Dre · November 19, 2007

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

I'll start off by posting some historical info for your analysis for the Thanksgiving games.

As you probably can imagine, the Thanksgiving games get bet a lot. But they are primarily bet by season-long players who have access to placing bets. Unlike the SB, which many people place bets who did not place any bets throughout the year. Thanksgiving Thursday is a day for gamblers to sit around, eat, drink, and watch games, and since there is only 1 game on at a time, many "habitual" gamblers want some money on the line. So for this reason, most guys/girls who bet throughout the season, will also be betting on at least 1 if not all the games Thursday.

Here are the results of the games since 1989. If you find that one of these games was not played on Thanksgiving, please let me know. But this is my database and this is what I've got:

1989 PHI -6' @ DAL Result: W SU 27-0 ATS: W O/U of +40 Result: U

1989 CLE -7 @ DET Result: L SU 10-13 ATS: L O/U of +40 Result: U

1990 WAS -6 @ DAL Result: L SU 17-27 ATS: L O/U of +39 Result: O

1990 DET -2 vs. DEN Result: W SU 40-27 ATS: W O/U of +45' Result: O

1991 DAL -6' vs. PIT Result: W SU 20-10 ATS: W O/U of +39' Result: U

1991 DET -3 vs. CHI Result: W SU 16-6 ATS: W O/U of +41 Result: U

1992 DAL -16 vs. NYG Result: W SU 30-3 ATS: W O/U of +39' Result: U

1992 HOU -1 @ DET Result: W SU 24-21 ATS: W O/U of +40 Result: O

1993 DAL -10 vs. MIA Result: L SU 14-16 ATS: L O/U of +36' Result: U

1993 DET -7' vs. CHI Result: L SU 6-10 ATS: L O/U of +36' Result: U

1994 DAL -6' vs. GB Result: W SU 42-31 ATS: W O/U of +34' Result: O

1994 BUF -1' @ DET Result: L SU 21-35 ATS: L O/U of +39 Result: O

1995 DAL -12 vs. KC Result: W SU 24-12 ATS: P O/U of +43' Result: U

1995 DET -3 vs. MIN Result: W SU 44-38 ATS: W O/U of +46' Result: O

1996 DAL -9 vs. WAS Result: W SU 21-10 ATS: W O/U of +42 Result: U

1996 KC -2 @ DET Result: W SU 28-24 ATS: W O/U of +43 Result: O

1997 DAL -5' vs. TEN Result: L SU 14-27 ATS: L O/U of +36' Result: O

1997 DET -8 vs. CHI Result: W SU 55-20 ATS: W O/U of +44 Result: O

1998 MIN -3 @ DAL Result: W SU 46-36 ATS: W O/U of +47' Result: O

1998 PIT -2 @ DET Result: L SU 16-19 ATS: L O/U of +42 Result: U

1999 DAL -1 vs. MIA Result: W SU 20-0 ATS: W O/U of +37' Result: U

1999 DET -5 vs. CHI Result: W SU 21-17 ATS: L O/U of +43' Result: U

2000 MIN -7 @ DAL Result: W SU 27-15 ATS: W O/U of +48 Result: U

2000 DET -6 vs. NE Result: W SU 34-9 ATS: W O/U of +38' Result: O

2001 DEN -7 @ DAL Result: W SU 26-24 ATS: L O/U of +41 Result: O

2001 GB -6 @ DET Result: W SU 29-27 ATS: L O/U of +46 Result: O

2002 NE -5 @ DET Result: W SU 20-12 ATS: W O/U of +44 Result: U

2003 DAL -3 vs. MIA Result: L SU 21-40 ATS: L O/U of +34' Result: O

2003 GB -6' @ DET Result: L SU 14-22 ATS: L O/U of +44 Result: U

2004 DAL -3' vs. CHI Result: W SU 21-7 ATS: W O/U of +36 Result: U

2004 IND -9' @ DET Result: W SU 41-9 ATS: W O/U of +54 Result: U

2005 DEN -2 @ DAL Result: W SU 24-21 ATS: W O/U of +41' Result: O

2005 ATL -3 @ DET Result: W SU 27-7 ATS: W O/U of +41 Result: U

2006 DAL -12' vs. TB Result: W SU 38-10 ATS: W O/U of +39 Result: O

2006 MIA -3 @ DET Result: W SU 27-10 ATS: W O/U of +39' Result: U

2006 KC -2 vs. DEN Result: W SU 19-10 ATS: W O/U of +38' Result: U

Next post, some analysis of these numbers...

Edited November 19, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

Steeltown Dre · November 19, 2007

Favorites have gone 23-12-1, winning at a 66% clip. They hit like no other.

Overs have only gone 16-20 (44%)

You have to go back to 2003 to find the last time a dog even covered. Now, what many people like to do (if they don't know much about either team) is they lay a 6 point teaser on the Fav and the Over.

If you teased the Fav by 6 points, you would have moved from 23-12-1 up to 34-9 (79%).

If you teased the Over, you would have moved from 17-26 to 24-18-1 (57%).

Obvioulsy to win the teaser, you have to win both, so you'd collectively you would only win 45% of your plays. And that's a losing % not even including juice.

So the bottom line, as much as you are tempted, do not blindly tease the fav and the over. Do so only if you already like both to hit, perhaps, but don't just do so for the hell of it.

Now, moving on to specific situations:

This Thursday the lines are:

GB -3.5 @ Det

Dal -14 vs. NYJ

Ind -11 @ Atl

We have 2 road favs, and we have one large home fav.

Road favs have gone 11-7 ATS

Road favs in Det have gone 6-5 ATS. Since 2002, they have gone 4-1 ATS.

Home favs have gone 17-7-1 ATS.

Home favs of 10 or more have gone 3-2-1 ATS. The 2 losses were on -10 and -10.5. So if you look at Home favs of 12 or more points, they are 2-0-1 ATS.

We haven't had a 2 TD home fav since 1992 when Dal was a 16 point home fav to NYG and won 30-3.

One thing to note: All 6 of these teams were at home the week before. So they have that advantage heading into this game. It does not always work out like that.

Teams that lost the Sunday before and are now home dogs are 5-7 ATS (Det and Atl)

Teams that won the Sunday before and are now home favs are 12-3-1 ATS (Dal)

Teams that won the Sunday before and are now road favs are 7-4-1 ATS (GB, Ind)

Teams that won the Sunday before and are now road dogs are 6-8-1 ATS (NYJ) - Note: If the team won on Sunday as a underdog and is now the road dog, they are 1-4 ATS.

The strongest of those listed seems to favor Dal and against NYJ. However, in those games, remember, the spread was never as high as 14 points.

Edited November 19, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

Steeltown Dre · November 19, 2007

Week 12 Game lines posted when Week 11 lines were released (2 Sundays ago):

THUR: GB -1 at DET

THUR: NYJ +15' at DAL

THUR: IND -11' at ATL

SUN: BUF +7 at JAC

SUN: DEN +3 at CHI

SUN: TEX +6 at CLE

SUN: MIN +10 at NYG

SUN: NO -3 at CAR

SUN: RAI +5 at KC

SUN: SEA -3' at STL

SUN: TEN +2' at CIN

SUN: WAS +3' at TB

SUN: SF +9 at ARZ

SUN: BAL +9 at SD

SUN: PHI +17 at NE

MON: MIA +16' at PIT

You can use this as a guide, if you want to, when comparing numbers.

Steeltown Dre · November 19, 2007

Don't bet on Farve in Domes: Myth or Reality?

				 Career			Since 2002Opponent	  SU	 ATS		SU	  ATSMIN		   6-10   9-7-0	  4-2	 4-2-0DET		   6-9	4-11-0	 3-2	 2-3-0TEX		   1-0	0-0-1	  1-0	 0-0-1NO			2-1	2-1-0	  0-1	 0-1-0STL		   1-1	1-1-0	  0-1	 0-1-0ATL		   1-1	1-1-0	  1-0	 1-0-0DAL		   0-5	0-5-0	  0-0	 0-0-0IND		   0-2	0-2-0	  0-1	 0-1-0

Overall Career: 17-29 SU, 17-28-1 ATS

Since 2002: 9-7 SU, 7-8-1 ATS

I don't consider Dal a true "dome" - obviously it's exposed to weather. However, the environment is somewhat "dome like", at least more than most true open air stadiums. So I included them for the overall numbers. He was terrible there in the 90s, so you take them out if you want. Either way, the numbers I really care about are 2002 and onwards.

In that time, he's 7-8-1 ATS. Which is not a reason to bet against him or for him.

How about this week vs. Det? Well, career as a whole, he's 4-11 ATS in Det. So that's not a great number at all. The other thing to note is that the 2 victories he had in the last 5 years were when GB was a dog. As a fav, GB has gone 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in Detroit. The last time they covered in Det was in 96.

But, in all those games save for 1, the line was between 5 and 8 points. It's 3 or 3.5 now.

So, if you back out the numbers for what Farve's done in a dome from what he's done on the road (62-62 SU since 2002, 61-60-3 ATS), you'll see that GB is 45-33 SU and 44-32-1 ATS on the road outside of domes since 1992.

Since 2002, GB has gone 25-19 SU on the road, and 25-18-1 ATS. Backing out his dome record, they've gone 16-12 SU and 18-10-0 ATS playing outside of domes.

Some things to consider.

So, (having nothing to do w/ stats, just w/ gambling) if someone says Farve is terrible in Domes, they are wrong. If they say "bet against Farve in a dome", they are wrong. If they say Farve is worse in domes than at open-air venues, they are right.

The ATS difference in the last 5 years of 7-8-1 is not nearly "Fade" material.

xMRogers · November 19, 2007

Good stuff - right now straight betting looking at Det, Dal and probably lay off the other game

Also will parlay Det ML with Dallas and Indy

Currently having one of those "useless" years - 76 games bet straight up (number 77 today) and up $30 (so .3 of a unit)

Luckily, been killing the parlays, so up about 7 units overall

Steeltown Dre · November 19, 2007

It beats being down, XM. 7 Units up overall is better than 4 or 2 or being down. Hope the picks go your way the rest of the year.

I forgot to update my record, so I'll do it now:

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 4-0

Week 4: 3-1

Week 5: 2-2-1

Week 6: 3-2-1

Week 7: 2-4

Week 8: 1-5

Week 9: 5-6 (Leans posted 2-0)

Week 10: 2-1

Week 11: 4-2-1

Overall: 33-24-2

(Including leans: 38-25-3) (60%)

Gdawg · November 19, 2007

It beats being down, XM. 7 Units up overall is better than 4 or 2 or being down. Hope the picks go your way the rest of the year.

I forgot to update my record, so I'll do it now:

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 4-0

Week 4: 3-1

Week 5: 2-2-1

Week 6: 3-2-1

Week 7: 2-4

Week 8: 1-5

Week 9: 5-6 (Leans posted 2-0)

Week 10: 2-1

Week 11: 4-2-1

Overall: 33-24-2

(Including leans: 38-25-3) (60%)

Hey Dre, nothing wrong with 60%! A lot of handicappers out there WISH they were hitting 60%

xMRogers · November 19, 2007

Good year - and don't you wish we had a "drop your lowest week" sort of thing....for you, it was week 8.

For me, I went 7-0 in week 8 (only my 2nd undefeated 7 win week in last 5 years of 7 game system)...then followed it up with 0-7 in week 9 (my first o'fer week ever)

On Titans +1.5 tonight

Steeltown Dre · November 19, 2007

Well remember, these are just my "personal plays". I'll update my system plays tomorrow.

Avernus · November 19, 2007

Eagles only getting 17?....I stick by my earlier statement in trying to get a bet in before McNabb is declared "out"....

not that it matters, though...

but if McNabb were to be rules out, the line would move to at least 20..

Steeltown Dre · November 20, 2007

Eagles only getting 17?....I stick by my earlier statement in trying to get a bet in before McNabb is declared "out"....

not that it matters, though...

but if McNabb were to be rules out, the line would move to at least 20..

That 17 was only at the Hilton in Vegas. All offshores opened at -22 (some are still not up yet, like Pinny). The Hilton is now at -23.5.

22 is extreme, but guess what, I've already taken it. 22 for the Pats at home vs. the Eagles is like 9 for the Steelers at home vs. the Ravens. Sure, the Ravens have a shot at covering, but it's more likely the Steelers will cover.

I'll keep riding the train until it loses. I took em against the Colts and that lost. I'll take a 14-2 ATS any year. Right now they are 9-1 ATS and 8-2 O/U.

I'm not proud to say I've laid 22.

Buf laid 20.5 to Indy in 1991, and Won and Covered (won by 36)

SF laid 23.5 to Ciny in 1993 and Won but did not cover (won by 13)

Gdawg · November 20, 2007

NE Scores to date:

1 Sep 09 NE 38 @ NYJ 14 FINAL

2 Sep 16 SD 14 @ NE 38 FINAL

3 Sep 23 BUF 7 @ NE 38 FINAL

4 Oct 01 NE 34 @ CIN 13 FINAL

5 Oct 07 CLE 17 @ NE 34 FINAL

6 Oct 14 NE 48 @ DAL 27 FINAL

7 Oct 21 NE 49 @ MIA 28 FINAL

8 Oct 28 WAS 7 @ NE 52 FINAL

9 Nov 04 NE 24 @ IND 20 FINAL

10 Bye

11 Nov 18 NE 56 @ BUF 10 FINAL

Dre, do you see any value in buying them down, say to 20.5? With the exception of the CLE game (which was probably the result of NE looking ahead to DAL) they've covered 20.5 at a bare minimum; excluding the IND game, of course.

Edited November 20, 2007 by Gdawg

godtomsatan · November 20, 2007

5 games with a favorite over 10 points, that has to be close to a record....

Steeltown Dre · November 21, 2007

I'll tell you where they are getting the line from in this game. It's straight out of the Sagarin ratings. Sagarin has NE 44.32 and Philly 22.76.

So that's 22 right there. Plus it's just over 3 TDs. My system is setting a line for the game of -25.

In the past, here's how my system has set the lines for NE games:

Week 3 Buffalo @ New England Vegas Line: New England -16.5 My Line: New England -26.7 Final Result: New England -31 My System: Win

Week 4 New England @ Cincinnati Vegas Line: Cincinnati +7 My Line: Cincinnati +10.8 Final Result: Cincinnati +21 My System: Win

Week 5 Cleveland @ New England Vegas Line: New England -16.5 My Line: New England -26.5 Final Result: New England -17 My System: Win

Week 6 New England @ Dallas Vegas Line: Dallas +5 My Line: Dallas +3.8 Final Result: Dallas +21 My System: Loss

Week 7 New England @ Miami Vegas Line: Miami +16.5 My Line: Miami +19.7 Final Result: Miami +21 My System: Win

Week 8 Washington @ New England Vegas Line: New England -16.5 My Line: New England -19.7 Final Result: New England -45 My System: Win

Week 9 New England @ Indianapolis Vegas Line: Indianapolis +5 My Line: Indianapolis +0.4 Final Result: Indianapolis +4 My System: Win

Week 11 New England @ Buffalo Vegas Line: Buffalo +14.5 My Line: Buffalo +16.4 Final Result: Buffalo +46 My System: Win

As you can see, it's gone 7-1 ATS on NE games, only losing the Dallas game.It gave Dallas a lot of credit when they were on a roll undefeated. But even now, if Dallas played in NE this week, it would have NE favored by -17. It won the Indy game (said to take the points).

Sometimes my system has predicted pretty close to the final score, which was a much higher margin than the Vegas line. Such as the first game w/ Buffalo and the game w/ Miami. But my system underestimated NE against Was and their last game against Buf.

At any rate, it's predicting a 25 point win over Philly. I'm confident laying the 22, but obviously nothing is ever a lock, certainly not 22 points! If you want to buy it down to 20.5, that's fine but it depends on the cost to do so. That's 1.5 points and I'm guessing crossing 21 will be costly (never had to buy across 21 before).

I'm not loaded up on this play, it's a pretty standard play from me. As you can see, prior to last week, the Hilton had the game at -17, and that's where they still had it at the very start of this week, before it was bought to 22 and then 23.5. So you would think there is some "value" in Philly, and I guess technically you'd be right. But Iook a lot to my system, and it's not showing any value for Philly at all.

Steeltown Dre · November 21, 2007

If you're curious, if NE played all of its remaining games this weekend, I'll tell you the lines as of right now. Of course, after this weekend's games, based on results and stats, the lines will change, but anyhow:

-25 vs Phi

-22.5 @ Bal

-17.5 vs Pit

-32 vs NYJ

-33 vs Mia

-13 @ NYG

Steeltown Dre · November 21, 2007

System Plays Week 11:

1. Top ATS predictor has gone 7-6 (54%) this season and went 0-2 last weekend, but I warned about the Indy pick due to their injuires. This weekend it is taking:

Car

2. Top 5 leans each week:

Week 3: 4-1

Week 4: 5-0

Week 5: 2-3

Week 6: 3-2

Week 7: 2-3

Week 8: 3-2

Week 9: 4-1

Week 10: 1-4

Week 11: 3-2

Total 27-18 (60%)

For week 12, the top 5 leans are:

Dal

Jac

Sea

Car

TB

3. I have one ATS simulator that is pretty honest, and one that is more biased towards the dogs. I keep track of when both simulators show value for the same team. This system has gone 28-23-7 ATS so far (55%) which includes another terrible week for this system of 0-4-1 last week.

This week both systems show value for:

Det

KC

Sea

4. I have also tracked when I have seen the wrong team favored. In other words, times when my system is showing the dog could actually win the game. In some cases, the dog does win, in other cases he covers, and then of course, there are times he fails to cover.

Here's how those picks have gone:

Week 3: Hou over Indy (ATS and SU Loss), GB over SD (ATS and SU Win), ATL over Car (ATS and SU Loss), Ten over NO (ATS and SU win). 2-2 ATS, 2-2 SU

Week 4: Cle over Bal (ATS and SU Win), Det over Chi (ATS and SU Win), Buf tie w/ NYJ (ATS win and SU Loss), NYG over Phi (ATS and SU win). 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU

Week 5: KC over Jac (ATS and SU Loss), SF over Bal (ATS win and SU Loss). 1-1 ATS, 0-2 SU

Week 6: KC over Cin (ATS and SU Win). 1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU

Week 7: Buf over Bal (ATS and SU Win), TB over Det (ATS and SU Loss), Jac over Ind (ATS and SU Loss). 1-2 ATS and 1-2 SU

Week 8: Min over Philly (ATS and SU Loss)

Week 9: NYJ over Was (ATS Win, SU Loss), Jac over NO (ATS and SU Loss), Buf over Cin (ATS and SU Win), Phi over Dal (ATS and SU Loss)

Week 10: Mia over Buf (ATS Push, SU L), Oak over Chi (ATS and SU L), NYG over Dal (ATS and SU L), Det over Ari (ATS and SU L)

Week 11: Bal over Cle (ATS Push, SU L), Det over NYG (ATS and SU L), SF over StL (ATS and SU L)

Summary: 11-12-2 ATS, 8-17 SU

This week here's the games the system is showing the wrong team is favored:

Cin over Ten

Car over NO

____________________________________________

Now, onto the O/U Systems:

1. Top Overs predictor has gone 12-0 this season including 1-0 last weekend. It has no selections this weekend.

2. I also have another Overs predictor which is 16-4 (80%). This weekend it has no selections.

3. The best Overs simulator has gone 33-19 this season (63%) including 5-2 last weekend. Here are all Overs leans for this weekend:

Buf/Jac Over

KC/Oak Over

Sea/StL Under

Was/TB Over

Bal/SD Over

Mia/Pit Over

4. The best Unders simulator has gone 44-30 (59%) including a 4-3 last weekend. This weekend it has:

GB/Det Under

NYJ/Dal Under

Ind/Atl Under

Den/Chi Under

Ten/Cin Under

Hou/Cle Under

Sea/StL Under

NO/Car Under

SF/AZ Under

Phi/NE Under - I didn't even bother playing this one - I like the over in the game.

5. When I combine these 2 simulators and compare each game, there are times that even the Over simulator has a lean to the Under, and sometimes even the Unders simulator has a lean to the Over. When both simulators lean to the same side, I have tracked those plays. The record has been 36-20 (64%) including 5-2 last weekend.

This weekend we have:

Ten/Cin Under

Hou/Cle Under

Sea/StL Under

Steeltown Dre · November 21, 2007

So far for Thanksgiving:

Dal

Ind/Atl Under

Gdawg · November 21, 2007

Well, I did it...I laid it down on the Pats. I did buy it down to -20.5, the juice really wasn't all that bad. I've been laying pretty heavy (overall) on NE most weeks, but took it a little light this time around.

-20.5 freakin' points

Only play so far this week. Going to take a closer look at tomorrow's games.

What do you guys think about the matchups tomorrow? Dre, I noticed one of your simulators shows value for DET, and another value for DAL. I am leaning towards DAL right now, but uncertain about GB/DET at the moment.

Steeltown Dre · November 22, 2007

Dal and Under Ind/Atl. I want to play GB but system is thinking Det. Will think on it and see tomorrow AM.

Here's some services:

BIG AL's ____________5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH_________________ Detroit

Scott Spreitzer________ 25*_____________________________________ Detroit

Dr. Bob._____________________2*________________________________Detroit

lem banker _______________________________________________________det

Neri Sports ________________2*___________________________________Detroit

Marc Lawrence_____________________________________________________Det

Trushel Sports _________20*_________________________________Detroit +3.5

DR CHAD_____________5 unit_________________________________GREEN BAY

CW Winner Phone Picks___cold as ice lately________________________Green Bay

Northcoast __________Top Marq____________________________________G B -3

Northcoast _________Uncle Phi's Play 3______________________________G B -3

Northcoast ___________Reg_____________________________________G B U 47

Gold Medal Club________15*________________________Green Bay -1.5 First half

Gold Medal Club ________15*________________________GB OVER 23.5 First half

Northcoast _____________2____________________________________Dallas -14

Marc Lawrence____________________________________________________Boys

Phenom ________________________________________________________Dallas

Neri Sports ________________2*___________________________________Dallas

CW Winner Phone Picks___cold as ice lately___________________________NY Jets

Northcoast ___________Reg___________________________________Dallas U 47

Gold Medal Club ________15*______________________________Dallas UNDER 48

lem banker _______________________________________________________jets

Wunderdog _________________4 units____________________New York Jets +14

Wunderdog__________________4 units_____________________Arizona State +3

dr bob____________________3*___________ Arizona St +3.5, 2* at +3 or worse.

Neri Sports ________________3*_________________________________Az State

DR CHAD _____________3 units___________________________ARIZONA STATE.

Pork Chop__________________3*_________________________________Ariz. St.

Jeff Bonds________________double-dime bet__________________Arizona St. 3.5

Northcoast ___________Reg______________________________________U S C -3

Johnathan Stone _________________________________________________Usc -3

Northcoast __________Top Marq__________________________________Usc U 49

Gold Medal Club _________15*__________________________________Indy -11.5

Phenom _________________________________________________________Indy

DR CHAD_____________5 unit______________________________________INDY.

Wunderdog ____________Comp______________________________Atlanta +11.5

Northcoast ___________Reg_____________________________________Atl. + 11

Marc Lawrence _________________________________________________Atlanta

Neri Sports ________________1*__________________________________Atlanta

Wunderdog__________________3 units________________________Atlanta +11.5

lem banker _______________________________________________________ata

Northcoast ___________Reg_____________________________________Alt. U 41

Wunderdog__________________4 units___________________Ata UNDER 41 -110

Gold Medal Club _________15*_______________________________Indy OVER 41

Greg Shaker______________triple-dime bet ________________IND-ATL Over 42.0

Gdawg · November 22, 2007

The Majority of the plays I've seen lean towards DET. I might make it a play, we'll see in the morning.

I think DAL beats NYJ by 20. It's a bad spot for them, and the are awful. DAL -13.5

No thoughts on IND yet.

Edited November 22, 2007 by Gdawg

Steeltown Dre · November 22, 2007

Budin has a 25 dime play which should be available to me around 10:30am and I'll post it once I see it. I think its for the GB/Det game.

Here's an update on services: