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Week 12 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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20.5? 24 here, and I'm in Philly! Did you buy this down? I can't imagine there was a plethera of Philly money coming in to move it that drastically.

 

Swammi I got it on Tuesday, it was at -22 at Bookmaker, bought it down to -20.5. Yeah, Bookmaker has it at -24 now too :D

Edited by Gdawg
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Swammi's picks:

 

TEN -1.5 over CIN: never like going against a home dog, but this opportunity begs for my attention. the Bengals are still getting loads of respect for past-seasons success, and I think the betting public still likes them as a good team that is underachieving. Fact is, they're a bad team playing bad. And TEN, in need of a win to keep pace in the playoff hunt, will be more than motivated to expose a poor CIN defense. In a higher scoring game, TEN 29, CIN 20.

 

KC/OAK under 34 1/2 : Under 34.5?!?!?! Am I crazy? Nah, not really. These two poor offenses both have had difficulty scoring 17 in any game this year, and the cahnces of them both doing it against each other seem rather miniscule. KC wasn't good enough on offense to get LJ going this year, and a rookie RB, playing behind a rookie QB throwing to a rookie WR, spells low scoring. And KCs defense, after holing Indy in check last week to the tune of 13 points, may pitch a shutout this week against their hated rival. KC 16, OAK 3.

 

DEN/CHI over 41: Both of these teams have defenses that are living off past reputation, and both have the ability to expose the other's weekness. Denver should have no problem scoring by land or by air, and I expect them to visit the end zone 3-4 times. Similarly, CHI should have success rushing the ball at home with Benson (yes, Cedric Benson), and Grossman, while limited by Bly and Bailey, will be able to find some success utlilizing the speed of Berrian and Hester on some deep balls. DEN 30, CHI 24.

Tease of the Week: Buffalo + 14/ NO + 4

 

GL Boys...time for some extra holiday spending ching!

 

Good picks swammi, I like your descriptions on why your selecting 'em.

 

By any chance do you have your record for the "Swammi's Picks".....it would be nice to see how you've done this year.

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Just threw a late tease in

 

Football - 203 Buffalo Bills/Jacksonville Jaguars under 47 for Game

Football - 209 Seattle Seahawks/St Louis Rams over 35 for Game

Football - 211 Minnesota Vikings/New York Giants under 50 for Game

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I'm now winning 67% of "personal plays" and staying right around 72.3 on my leans. I'm not even sure why I even pick any games because I have this system thats been hitting at 76%.

 

Giants are the best play on the board.

 

Giants -7.5

 

:D

 

Edit: :D:D:wacko::D

Edited by Mojo Rising
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I'm now winning 67% of "personal plays" and staying right around 72.3 on my leans. I'm not even sure why I even pick any games because I have this system thats been hitting at 76%.

 

Giants are the best play on the board.

 

Giants -7.5

At the last minute the Giants were a no play for me. My system told me different. I'm 3-1 on the early games.

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I'm now winning 67% of "personal plays" and staying right around 72.3 on my leans. I'm not even sure why I even pick any games because I have this system thats been hitting at 76%.

 

Giants are the best play on the board.

 

Giants -7.5

 

 

At the last minute the Giants were a no play for me. My system told me different. I'm 3-1 on the early games.

 

 

"your system" LOL :D

 

dude you have to be kidding me........ :D

 

you made a bad pick, man up!

 

 

:D

 

anyway..That Rams game not going over was a crime..Rams driving for the win and I am at a Christening and cant see the final plays..I check back later and obviously they didnt get it..My Oak over 15 and SF over 14 hit..That stupid Fin teaser I put in was a classic case of betting for the sake of betting and it went in the crapper..Ill be about even for the day . The teaser was a big play..:wacko: dumb dumb move

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My computer is on the fritz today - spilled coffee on it. Will post this while it's working but may not be able to get back.

 

I agree w/ whomper, not loving anything really today. Already played NE. I'll add a play on Sea and w/ TB already in my "top 5 per week", and now that Budin's on it, I'll add a little more on TB.

 

So that's it. Lots of chalk for me today. That Cle/Hou game could be a tossup, and everyone seems to be on the Hou bandwagon after they crushed NO. I'm tempted to take Cle but I've already got too much chalk on the board. I think Cin can upset Ten, but I don't see too much value there. But I'd lean towards Cin. After leaving Thurs being up by a large amount w/ Dal's cover, I'm just taking those 3 today and if I come up w/ anything else, I'll post it, but may not be able to get on, we'll see w/ my computer

 

Great day for me yesterday. Only poor call was getting suckered into NE. Other than that, w/ "personal plays" on Sea, NE and TB, I did play Cin to get at least 1 dog in there. Won't count it towards my record but will count it as a lean. Cle also won. My system's top 5 went 4-1 ATS this week, w/ Dal, Jac, TB and Sea all winning (Car was the loser).

 

"Personal Plays" went 4-2 and leans 2-0. Brings my "personal play" record to 37-26-2 w/ leans: 44-27-3 (62%)

 

I'll update my system records in a day or two. Not sure I'll do anything for tonight, but we'll see how the day goes. Hope you guys had a great week and that the NE loss didn't put too much of a damper on the great week.

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Yea Dre, it was a good week! Actually my best week this season, went big on the second half over in SF/Ari which came in nice with the OT.

 

I felt real iffy about NE so just took the over for the half 27.5 and game 52.5.

 

Tonight I'm making a small play on Pit.

 

Lets keep it rolling into week 13!!!

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Great job guys. Glad you all did well.

 

Here's the Week 13 lines that were released a week ago:

 

THURS 11/29

 

DAL-6 / gb

 

SUN 12/2

 

STL-4.5 / atl

WAS-5 / buf

MIN-2.5 / det

TEN-3.5 / hou

IND-7 / jax

MIA Pk / nyj

sd-3 / KC

PHL-2.5 / sea

CAR-6 / sf

NOR-2 / tb

AZ-3 / cle

den-3.5 / OAK

nyg-3 / CHI

PIT-10.5 / cin (SNF)

ne-21 / BAL (MNF)

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Some snipets of info I've posted for MNF elsewhere:

 

Right now rain is falling in Pittsburgh but it's not a downpour. If anyone saw highlights of the Pitt/S.Fla college game on Saturday, you'll know the field was in bad shape.

 

Immediately after the game, they started resodding the field. The new sod was finished on Sunday.

 

O/U opened at 43, and has fallen the last day or two, and now can be had at 38.5 at some outlets. Everyone really reacts to weather on a MNF game.

 

Two out of the last 3 MNF games have had weather. The Pit/Bal game had a total that dropped like a rock and went over, in large part due to Pit defense. The Sea/SF game was thought to have massive winds/rain. If you paid attention to this thread, you knew the weather wouldn't be much of an issue by kickoff, and it wasn't. But the game still went under, because SF couldn't put up a single point.

 

On the season, MNF games have gone under 8 out of 12 times.

 

If you think Polamalu's absence will enable the game to go over, think again:

 

Games missed by Polamalu since he came into the league:

 

2006 Wk 13 Home vs. TB O/U of 40.5 Final Score: Pit 20-3 Result: U

2006 Wk 14 Home vs. Cle O/U of 34.5 (due to weather) Final Score: Pit 27-7 Result: U

2006 Wk 15 Away @ Car O/U of 38.5 Final Score: Pit 37-3 Result: O

2007 Wk 5 Home vs. Sea O/U of 39 Final Score: Pit 21-0 Result U

 

If there are other games aside from these 4, fill me in. I'm getting the info from his game logs on NFL.com

 

3 of these games have gone under, so even w/ him not in there, the Steelers have compensated, outscoring its opponents an average of 26-3 in those 4 games.

 

If you look back to the beginning of the thread, I have a system play on the Over. My system is predicting a final score of 32-12.

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It seems like they allow HS championships over Thanksgiving. I looked back over the last few years at the first Steelers home game following Thanksgiving:

 

11/30/03 Cin @ Pit O/U of 41.5, Pit -2.5

10-14 game heading into the 4th (24 pts). Both teams put up 10 in the 4th, Cin won 24-20, Game went Over.

 

11/28/04 Was @ Pit O/U of 35.5, Pit -10

Steelers led 13-0 at the half, won the game 16-7. Bettis said: "I'm a mudder, so this was my weather." Game went Under.

 

12/4/05 Cin @ Pit O/U of 42, Pit -3

Cin lead 21-17 at the half (38 pts) so the under was already gone. Cin won 38-31 Field looked a little muddy but not bad (it was not raining). Game went Over.

Video here:

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter?game_id=2871...&week=REG13

 

12/3/06 TB @ Pit O/U of 40.5, Pit -8.5

Pit lead 10-0 at the half, and won 20-3. Game went Under. Field looked pretty bad.

Again, it was not raining. All the brown dirt/mud in the middle of the field would be total slop if it had been raining.

Check out the video:

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter?game_id=2904...&week=REG13

 

The field was in bad shape prior to the resodding, but in the S Fla/Pit game, despite the muddy field, they still put up 85 points. Granted, 44 came in the 4th quarter. So 41 points thru 3 quarters, and the O/U was 45.

 

The field should start out better than it was in that game, but probably by the half it will be in the same shape as that game, and then will deteriorate even more. Just my guess...

 

Steelers -9.5 and O/U 20 are out there for 1st half lines.

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Sebastian Sports

30 Star Pitts

20 Under

 

Brandon Lang

50 Dime

Steelers

 

Chances are when these stars align they have aligned this way due to Budin's play. He has a 50 Dime release today from his NY crew, supposedly his best, who are 5-0 this year. Charges $99 for the play. I'll post it when I see it. Chances are it's Pittsburgh. He loves favs. Here's his plays in the NFL this year:

 

This is just the 13th NFL play I've gotten the entire season.

 

The first was a 100 Dimer in week 1 when the Steelers (-5) crushed the Browns in Cleveland 34-7.

 

The second was a 100 Dimer with the Giants (-3) in a 35-24 win over the Jets eight Sundays ago.

 

The third was a 100 Dimer with the Eagles (-4) in a 16-9 win over the Jets seven Sundays ago.

 

The fourth was a 100 Dimer with the Giants (-5') in a 31-10 win over the Falcons seven Mondays ago.

 

The fifth was a 50 Dimer with the Cowboys (-9') in a 24-14 win over the Vikings six Sundays ago.

 

The sixth was a 50 Dimer with the Steelers (-4) in a 24-13 win over the Bengals five Sundays ago.

 

The seventh was a 50 Dimer with the Lions (-3) in a 44-7 win over the Broncos four Sundays ago.

 

The eighth was a 25 Dimer with the Steelers (-9) in a 38-7 win over the Ravens four Mondays ago.

 

The ninth was a 100 Dimer with the Cowboys (-1') in a 31-20 win over the Giants three Sundays ago.

 

The 10th was a 50 Dime two-team teaser with the Eagles (-3') over the Dolphins combined with the Lions (+9) versus the Giants two Sundays ago.

 

The 11th was a 25 Dimer with the Packers (-3') in a 37-26 win over the Lions on Thursday.

 

The 12th was a 25 Dimer with the Buccaneers (-3') in a 19-13 win over the Redskins yesterday.

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