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Week 12 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Dre along with being a fine handicapper I think you might also be psychic. I was just about to post Lang :D

 

I'd love to get a peek at what Budin has to say, haven't seen it anywhere yet. Most of what I have seen is on PIT -16 so far.

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At the last minute the Giants were a no play for me. My system told me different. I'm 3-1 on the early games.

 

your "play fo the week" was a last-minute no-play? LMAO

 

Posting at 3:40PM, with the games no nearly over yet, that you are 3-1? Amazing that all your plays are shoo-ins with over a quarter to play in most of them.

 

Does your system recommend posting on a message board to make people think you have a clue, when its obviously apparent you have none?

 

 

this is the week they stumble, yea they may win but im feeling a philly cover...

 

feeling a Philly cover after the game has already started and the Eagles and Pats are tied at the end of the 1st quarter?

 

very savvy.

Edited by i_am_the_swammi
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I don't know what this guy is talking about, but he can stay out of this thread from this point forward. I have never posted a play after the game has started. My 6-2 "personal plays" record this week were all posted over 1 hr prior to kickoff at a very minimum. All "system plays" are usually posted no later than Wednesday for the following week's games.

 

His only posted play was the Giants which lost terribly and now he's fabricating records.

 

I'll be reporting him to the mods, feel free to do the same - we have no time or space for his intentionally argumentative style and negativity in this thread on a weekly basis.

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I don't know what this guy is talking about, but he can stay out of this thread from this point forward. I have never posted a play after the game has started. My 6-2 "personal plays" record this week were all posted over 1 hr prior to kickoff at a very minimum. All "system plays" are usually posted no later than Wednesday for the following week's games.

 

His only posted play was the Giants which lost terribly and now he's fabricating records.

 

I'll be reporting him to the mods, feel free to do the same - we have no time or space for his intentionally argumentative style and negativity in this thread on a weekly basis.

 

Done and done.

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Michael Cannon

 

Monday's Plays...

 

15 Dime –

 

STEELERS

 

Lay the big number with Pittsburgh tonight over Miami.

 

At first glance this seems like an easy spot to take the Dolphins. You would be getting a boat load of points and the Steelers are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Jets.

 

That’s where the obvious ends.

 

The Dolphins are where they’re at because they are not a good football team. Their normally reliable defense has taken a huge step backwards this year and they will not be able to contain the running of Willie Parker or the passing of Ben Roethlisberger.

 

Pittsburgh has been somewhat of a Jekyll and Hyde team this year. They play great at home and have laid some duds on the road. The Steelers are 5-0 at home this season while outscoring their opponents 150-54.

 

On top of that, the Dolphins will be starting rookie quarterback John Beck.

 

Now Beck may turn out to be a fine quarterback in this league some day, I know he made me and my clients a lot of money last year while playing at Byu, but starting on the road against a defense as sophisticated as Pittsburgh’s is something he’s not ready for.

 

 

I’m reminded of Cleveland playing at Pittsburgh late last season with Derek Anderson at quarterback. The Browns never had a chance and the Steelers easily cruised to a 20-point win. Anderson, as he’s shown this year, isn’t exactly fodder as a quarterback.

 

 

The Steelers will be chomping at the bit to wash the bad taste out of their mouths from last week’s loss to the Jets. They are 12-2 ATS on Monday Night and I see them getting out to a big lead early and then cruising the rest of the way.

 

 

 

Lay the points as the Steelers win tonight by 21.

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Ouch Mojo. Sorry to hear about that. I'm glad I stayed away from that game. Too many "unknowns" prior to kick. Watching the game, I couldn't bring myself to do anything "ingame" as it was just a total mess and a big "?" as to what would happen, who may score.

 

My only piece of advice, and I don't mean to tell you or anyone what to do, because we've all "been there, done that" before, but if you allow me for a minute, I'll share my personal strategy/opinion: I've learned never to place too much action on any one game, particularly a game which is on national TV in primetime. Usually I will only make 1 play on a game. If my system is showing something for a total, or if I have capped it and like a total, I may play side/total for a total of 2 plays. Typically, that's the limit, although what I do in game is all about value/middling. I will surely take a 3rd play during a game if it allows me to either middle or hedge, depending on the situation.

 

I the situation described above, none of your 2nd half plays were really "hedge/middle" plays. If it was me, given the situation, I would take the 1st half play loss, hope for a 2nd half miracle to get your game cover, and move along. Even though it hurts, it won't hurt as much as making a wrong read on the 2nd half. There is always next week. But like I said, I've done similar things in the past and it does feel bad. So I feel your pain, and I don't mean to be critical at all, just honestly trying to share my personal strategy, and like I said, I've fallen into the same traps before.

 

Last night I had a standard "system play" on the over 41. That play was made 8 days ago, before even thinking about weather being a factor. Maybe I should have taken the under 38 last night to cancel out the play. Hindsight is 20/20. But my standard plays for that type of O/U from my system is not that large to make me feel bad if I lose one play, because I'm up so much on them so far this year. It was a play generated by one of my overs systems that was 37-20 (65%) heading into the game. On the week it was 4-1, and the past 2 weeks it was 9-3. So moving it to 4-2 on the week (9-4 the past 2 weeks) with a loss was not going to hurt me that much. What would have hurt is if I made a play on the under 38, and the final score was 21-20, 21-17, 35-3, 28-10, 28-13, 27-13... and on and on. Those 2 numbers, "41" and "38" get hit quite frequently. So I would have possibly pushed one play and lost the other. 39 and 40 are not hit as much, but could be hit and I could have lost both. Therefore, I decided to suck it up, ride it out, and see what happened w/ a play on the over 41. While it lost, I was only out a certain amount, and can live w/ that. Putting more money onto a game in those conditions would have not made sense to me, because there were too many variables and I don't like playing games w/ those "unknowns". Just my experience w the sitation. But don't worry, to those who followed Budin on Pit - we'll get it back next week. Everyone has a play that will lose, no one is perfect. I'm sure he'll have a 100 dime play to cancel it all out.

 

The key is, play within your means. Budin is one of the only cappers this year who can afford to lose on a 50 dime play, as he's up so big this year. But the thing is, Joe Blow who started tailing his plays a week ago is not up as much as Budin is. Joe Blow took a hit last night. The key is, don't go wild because of any tout. Even a red hot Budin can lose some plays. I don't know his long term record. We'll see what he comes out w/ this week. He started the season w/ four 100 dime plays and got up big, early. Since then, he's had only 1 100 dime play, 5 50 dime plays and 3 25 dime plays. I'm thinking he pulls out another 100 dimer soon, and it may be a great play. But if I play it, I'll play it w/ a standard amount and not go crazy.

 

OK, let's move onto week 13. It starts in 2 days, so time is ticking.

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