keggerz Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 (edited) Seems like many people think that LT is performing below expectations so I figured lets take a poll to see.... I would use the spoiler code but then you have to click each word so all you have to do is highlite between the graemlins to see some numbers I have put together...i dont want to influence anyones answer with the numbers prior to them voting. Excluding passing stats: 2007 Pace : 1272 rushing yards, 579 recv yards, 66 receptions, 16 TDs, Combined yards 1851 2006 Stats: 1815 rushing yards, 508 recv yards, 56 receptions, 31 TDs Combined yards 2323 2005 Stats: 1462 rushing yards, 370 recv yards, 51 receptions, 20 TDs Combined yards 1832 2004 Stats: 1335 rushing yards, 441 recv yards, 53 receptions, 18 TDs Combined yards 1776 2003 Stats: 1645 rushing yards, 725 recv yards,100receptions, 17 TDs Combined yards 2370 2002 Stats: 1683 rushing yards, 489 recv yards, 79 receptions, 15 TDs Combined yards 2172 2001 Stats: 1236 rushing yards, 367 recv yards, 59 receptions, 10 TDs Combined yards 1603 his averages from 2001-2006 are as follows ....................1529 rushing yards, 483 recv yards, 66 receptions, 18.5 TDs Combined yards 2012 now if you take 2006 out of the equation because it was truly one of those once in a lifetime type years you would be looking at averages of: ...................1472 rushing yards, 478 recv yards, 68 receptions, 16 TDs Combined yards 1950 also you can look at 2003 as a bit of an aberration with regards to catches and recv yards: back out the 100 receptions and 725 yards and you are looking at an average of 435 recv yards and 60 receptions and some might want to back out the 10 TDs from 2001...well do that and include last yr and he averages: 20TDs/yr remove the high of 31 and the low of 10 and you are looking at an average of 17.5 TDs I think peoples expectations are possibly tied to last year and therefore they have the perception that LT is doing poorly when in fact that is not the case. after a day or two i will change the type color to black Edited November 21, 2007 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wolf Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 (edited) I'd say that he's on pace for an average LT season...2006 removed from the equation, of course. I voted yes only because after last season, I was expecting more...certainly not a repeat but not half the production, TD-wise. Edited November 21, 2007 by The Wolf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted November 21, 2007 Author Share Posted November 21, 2007 ok there are 3 yes votes....give your opinion on why Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 He's not below my expectations. I draft players based on the probablility that they will live up to their ADP, not based on the probablility that they will have a career year. LT was the #1 overall person in my rankings because I had no doubt outside of injury that he would be a top RB. Very low bust factor. Only the Norv factor, and we all recall what RBs have done under Norv in the past. Second was SJax. He had the "I've only done it once" factor. LJ had the "The rest of my offense really sucks" factor Westbrook had the injury bug factor Addai had the "I've never carried the full load" factor FWP had the new coach factor and the " I've only done it once" factor Etc.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heehawks Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 He's been the most consistent RB I've ever seen in FB. That is why I made him #1. He has never given me less than 12 pts in our league this year (and points are hard to come by!). Just wait in the next few weeks. I have a sneaky suspicion that he is going to explode during the FFplayoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 he's still currently the #2 FF RB in my local.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 He's not below my expectations. I draft players based on the probablility that they will live up to their ADP, not based on the probablility that they will have a career year. LT was the #1 overall person in my rankings because I had no doubt outside of injury that he would be a top RB. Very low bust factor. Only the Norv factor, and we all recall what RBs have done under Norv in the past. Second was SJax. He had the "I've only done it once" factor. LJ had the "The rest of my offense really sucks" factor Westbrook had the injury bug factor Addai had the "I've never carried the full load" factor FWP had the new coach factor and the " I've only done it once" factor Etc.. if you are referring to All Day Peterson....well, not many people can live up to those expectations... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted November 21, 2007 Author Share Posted November 21, 2007 if you are referring to All Day Peterson....well, not many people can live up to those expectations... ADP=Average Draft Position Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 ADP=Average Draft Position I didn't answer because I thought he was trying to be hughmorous. Key word being "trying" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gunther Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 I voted no, while he went #1 in our local because of high expectations for him to separate himself from the rest of the RBs, he is still the #3 RB in scoring in my local (non-PPR). The top four (Westbrook, AD, Tomlinson, Addai) are pretty close in scoring but then the drop off to #5 (McGahee) is of significance (~five points less per game average).. I don't own LT, but I wouldn't be complaining if I did and I would be looking forward the games coming up on SD's schedule the rest of tthis season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DemonKnight Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 Like someone else said, I paid the big bucks for consistency. He is #1 in the league I hold him in (TD heavy no PPR) at this point. You cant beat knowing that youve got at least 50 yards and a TD week in and week out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LayLow Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 I was assuming he would be used more then he is now, and probably post close to 20 Td's with alot more receiving yards then he has. According to "Nowhere" Norv Turner, before the season, they wanted to get him heavily involved in the passing game.....which we havn't really seen. (Last week being the anomoly) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrick35 Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 I voted NO! One thing I have noticed about FF'ers is their idea that a player is expected to have a career year, every year. This is just not possible. LT is an elite RB, possibly the best in the game today. I wish I had him. But when you draft one player over the other the expectation should be that the player you pick will out perform the one you do not pick. If that happens then you were successful and the player you picked has met your expectations. If the player you draft scores the same amount of points or is at least close to the points scored by the player you did not draft then it was a wash, if he is signifcantly lower than the other player then you could say he has performed at a level lower than expected. In my local LT is the #2 RB and he is less than 9 points behind #1, so I would say that he has at least met whatever expectations anyone could have had for him going into the season. But, when you draft a player if you have the expectation that he is going to match or exceed his best year to date then I would say that 75% or more of your picks will perform at a level lower than you expected. And that thought process would include LT this year but that is a flawed thought process. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
montster Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 i own him in one 14-team redraft league in which i'm 9-2 and in second place. i voted no. my reasons: 1) he's not hurt. 2) he's still performing as a top-tier back. 3) you still have to draft well. anyone expecting LT to carry his fantasy team by himself is a moran. i mean, come on, he's not tom brady. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 I voted yes and it looks like you're accepting opinions for that. It is my opinion that he is on a pace to score 281 FF points (347 in a PPR). That would be his lowest number since his rookie season. His only season below 300 FF points is 2004 when he played only 15 games. So in my opinion, it is below expectations. Points for passing were not used in this comparison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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