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Week 13 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

Personally, I have posted 2 types of plays this year. My "system plays" which are derived from a system I have created, and my "posted plays" are either plays in addition to those plays (or at times may fade the system), or "system plays" which I want to alert as plays I think have great value, and want to add more money onto:

 

I will update my system plays and record in the next post. Here are my posted plays:

 

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 4-0

Week 4: 3-1

Week 5: 2-2-1

Week 6: 3-2-1

Week 7: 2-4

Week 8: 1-5

Week 9: 5-6 (Leans posted 2-0)

Week 10: 2-1

Week 11: 4-2-1

Week 12: 4-2 (Leans posted 2-0)

 

Overall: 37-26-3

Including leans: 44-27-3 (62%)

 

Just wanted to add something here and I know it's not gambling related, so I apologize in advance:

 

Today is a very sad day w/ the word of Sean Taylor's passing last night. I'm listening to the local radio in DC http://www.sportstalk980.com/main.html and feeling the gravity and the pain of the whole DC region. Tragedies like this happen everyday, to both good and bad people. Because he's famous, this one will be obviously discussed more than others. But any loss of life is a sad, sad situation. Especially one in a situation where armed cowards break into your house w/ you and your family there sleeping. I have nothing but love and prayers for Taylor and his family and the rest of the DC region.

 

I know many, many people who loved Taylor as their favorite player. For the Skins fans, their team has not been very good for the last decade. They don't have much to cling to except a few standout players. Very few. Taylor was one of them, and this has hit many residents very hard. It's just a game, but it's sometimes larger than life, and he was a hero to some. So I feel bad for them.

 

Because of the way he died, I can associate w/ it (and I'm sure many others can as well) in the sense that I'm sure many have heard something that goes "bump in the night" and investigated. Your worst nightmare is what happened to Taylor. While thankfully such outcomes probably will never happen to you or I, it does happen, sadly, to people on a daily basis. When it makes the news, and hits close to home, being a star NFL player that many followed, it is shocking and sad.

 

With that said, I feel empty for his family and his baby daughter and the whole DC region. RIP Sean, my prayers for you and your family.

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Here's the Week 13 lines that were released a week ago:

 

THURS 11/29

 

DAL-6 / gb

 

SUN 12/2

 

STL-4.5 / atl

WAS-5 / buf

MIN-2.5 / det

TEN-3.5 / hou

IND-7 / jax

MIA Pk / nyj

sd-3 / KC

PHL-2.5 / sea

CAR-6 / sf

NOR-2 / tb

AZ-3 / cle

den-3.5 / OAK

nyg-3 / CHI

PIT-10.5 / cin (SNF)

ne-21 / BAL (MNF)

 

The lines that have particular value:

 

Pit is now only a 7 point fav after narrowly beating Mia and looking bad in the muck, and Cin crushing Ten, so they have "gained" 3.5 points of value because of Week 12.

Car is now only a 3 point fav after their 25 point loss to NO and SF's upset over Arizona, so they have "gained" 3 points of value because of Week 12.

Ari is now only a 1 point fav over Cle since they lost to SF and Cle beat Hou, so they have "gained" 2 points of value because of Week 12.

NYG is now only a 1 point fav over Chi since they lost to Min and Chi beat Den, so they have "gained" 2 points of value because of Week 12.

 

Not saying these are plays, just showing you how the outcomes of Week 12 has affected the lines. Many lines are very close or exactly the same, so perception of Week 12 did not changed those lines.

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Early Week 14 Lines:

 

THURS

 

WAS-3 / chi

 

SUN

 

JAX-12.5 / car

dal-7 / DET

BUF-5.5 / mia

PHL-3 / nyg

GB-10 / oak

NE-14 / pit

TEN Pk / sd

CIN-6.5 / stl

HOU-2 / tb

SEA-6.5 / az

min-3 / SF

cle-4 / NYJ

DEN-7.5 / kc

ind-9 / BAL (SNF)

nor-6 / ATL (MNF)

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FWIW - the handicapping "expert" on Dennis Miller's new show on VS. listed his plays this week. He likes

 

PHI -3

Indy -7

and especially GB+6.5, saying that Dallas was exposed a little last week having to pull one out against the Redskins and that the Pack have been one of the most underrated teams in recent years, he thinks they'll win outright.

 

Food for thought.

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Prior to posting this, I will tell you that the Atl/Stl game was not factored in to the system yet as lines are not up at many locations. I'll update once that game posts.

 

System Plays Week 13:

 

1. Top ATS predictor has gone 7-7 (50%) this season and went 0-1 last weekend. After starting 7-3 ATS, it's gone 0-4 the last 3 weeks, picking losers on Oak, Ind, SF and Car. I warned about the Indy play w/ thier injuries, and the other 3 plays were all on teams w/ injuries or teams that are just slumping of late (save SF and Oak last weekend). It's hard to put money on teams that look to be "down and out", but I follow the system and can fade it later, and I didn't fade any of those plays, so shame on me. So, it's probably good that the system isn't picking anyone this week.

 

2. Top 5 leans each week:

 

Week 3: 4-1

Week 4: 5-0

Week 5: 2-3

Week 6: 3-2

Week 7: 2-3

Week 8: 3-2

Week 9: 4-1

Week 10: 1-4

Week 11: 3-2

Week 12: 4-1

 

Total 31-19 (62%)

 

For week 13, the top 5 leans are an ugly, ugly, very ugly bunch:

 

Ind

Mia

Car

Oak

Pit

 

3. I have one ATS simulator that is pretty honest, and one that is more biased towards the dogs. I keep track of when both simulators show value for the same team. This system has gone 29-25-7 ATS so far (54%) which includes 1-2 last week.

 

After starting the season 28-16-5 (64%), this system has gone a remarkable 1-9-2 the past 3 weeks. So, much like #1 above, this system has been terrible the past 3 weeks, so hopefully it will regain it's season form soon.

 

This week both systems show value for:

 

Ind

Cle

 

4. I have also tracked when I have seen the wrong team favored. In other words, times when my system is showing the dog could actually win the game. In some cases, the dog does win, in other cases he covers, and then of course, there are times he fails to cover.

 

Here's how those picks have gone:

 

Week 3: Hou over Indy (ATS and SU Loss), GB over SD (ATS and SU Win), ATL over Car (ATS and SU Loss), Ten over NO (ATS and SU win). 2-2 ATS, 2-2 SU

Week 4: Cle over Bal (ATS and SU Win), Det over Chi (ATS and SU Win), Buf tie w/ NYJ (ATS win and SU Loss), NYG over Phi (ATS and SU win). 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU

Week 5: KC over Jac (ATS and SU Loss), SF over Bal (ATS win and SU Loss). 1-1 ATS, 0-2 SU

Week 6: KC over Cin (ATS and SU Win). 1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU

Week 7: Buf over Bal (ATS and SU Win), TB over Det (ATS and SU Loss), Jac over Ind (ATS and SU Loss). 1-2 ATS and 1-2 SU

Week 8: Min over Philly (ATS and SU Loss)

Week 9: NYJ over Was (ATS Win, SU Loss), Jac over NO (ATS and SU Loss), Buf over Cin (ATS and SU Win), Phi over Dal (ATS and SU Loss)

Week 10: Mia over Buf (ATS Push, SU L), Oak over Chi (ATS and SU L), NYG over Dal (ATS and SU L), Det over Ari (ATS and SU L)

Week 11: Bal over Cle (ATS Push, SU L), Det over NYG (ATS and SU L), SF over StL (ATS and SU L)

Week 12: Cin over Ten (ATS and SU W), Car over NO (ATS and SU L)

 

Summary: 12-13-2 ATS, 9-18 SU

 

This week here's the games the system is showing the wrong team is favored:

 

TB over NO

Oak over Den

 

____________________________________________

 

 

Now, onto the O/U Systems:

 

1. Top Overs predictor has gone 12-0 this season w/ no selections last weekend. It also has no selections this weekend.

 

2. I also have another Overs predictor which is 16-4 (80%). This weekend it has no selections.

 

3. The best Overs simulator has gone 37-21 this season (64%) including 4-2 last weekend. Here are all Overs leans for this weekend:

 

Was/Buf Over

SD/KC Over

 

4. The best Unders simulator has gone 49-35 (58%) including a 5-5 last weekend (But I warned not to play Phi/NE Under and took the other side myself).

 

Now, this system picked 10 games last weekend and this weekend it has another 11 plays. It would be HIGHLY unlikely we have 11 games that go under. Just like it's near impossible to have 10 last weekend. Just for some comparison, Unders went 6-10 in week 11 and 7-9 in week 12. The avg the last 5 years for week 11 was 9-6-1 and for week 12, 9-7. So we've had many more overs the past 2 weeks than usual. And for my system to predict 10 unders isn't too shocking, as the avg is 9. But realistically, no one is going to play 11 unders (except if you follow the system to a "T", which I'm doing about 99% of the time).

 

The good thing about this system is that the more it likes a under, the better it usually has done. Therefore, I'm doing something new this week since it is selecting so many unders:

 

I'll break out those Unders that have a value of 4 or more points in my predicted line. On the season, those plays are 23-14 (62%) and have been red hot the last 3 weeks, going 3-1 in Week 10, 3-1 in week 11, and 3-1 in week 12, so 9-3 (75%). I'll post the other plays as well, but just realize the chances of 11 unders hitting is pretty slim:

 

Top Unders:

 

GB/Dal

Cle/Ari

Pit/Cin

NE/Bal (just an FYI, NE has gone Under in just 2 out of 11 games. Against Cin and Ind, the 2 games where the total was set to 53.5 and 56, their highest 2 of the season. In totals of between 49 and 52, NE has gone over in all 3 games, against Dal, Was, and Phi. I'm not even going to bother making this play, NE is so volitile that if I make it, it will be later in the week and dependent on weather. I will still count it towards my system, but like the NE play last week, I won't actually make it and if the under loses (like it did last week), I'll still count it in my system as a loss, even though I won't play it)

 

Other Unders:

 

Min/Det

Ten/Hou

Ind/Jac

Sea/Phi

TB/NO

Oak/Den

NYG/Chi

 

5. When I combine these 2 simulators and compare each game, there are times that even the Over simulator has a lean to the Under, and sometimes even the Unders simulator has a lean to the Over. When both simulators lean to the same side, I have tracked those plays. The record has been 39-20 (66%) including 3-0 last weekend.

 

This weekend we have:

 

Det/Min Under

Cle/Ari Under

Den/Oak Under

Cin/Pit Under

NE/Bal Under

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FWIW - the handicapping "expert" on Dennis Miller's new show on VS. listed his plays this week. He likes

 

PHI -3

Indy -7

and especially GB+6.5, saying that Dallas was exposed a little last week having to pull one out against the Redskins and that the Pack have been one of the most underrated teams in recent years, he thinks they'll win outright.

 

Food for thought.

 

Any clue as to how he's been doing?

 

As for the GB/Dal game, I may end up playing it, but it's definitely not a game that jumps out to me now as particular value. I think the line is set about right. My system is showing a Dal victory by just under 10 points, rounded appx score of 31-21. I have no problem fading my system if I see particular value in doing so, and have not made a play on Dal since it's not of enough value to trigger anything (posted system plays are above, and Dal is not mentioned).

 

Right now, 60% is on GB but the line has gone from opening at most outlets at -6.5 to now -7. Could be one of 3 things:

 

1. Heavy early money on Dal thinking they will win by a TD or more, but more "joe public" bets on GB

2. a Vegas tactic to make you think that way

3. or the big dogs buying in early on Dal -6.5 only to shift the line to hopefully 7.5 by kick (or just buy that half point) and then buying back large on GB +7.5. In which case they would make a sh*tload if Dal won by a TD.

 

I'm guessing that when the line opened at -6.5 you had GB bettors holding off and Dal bettors placing wagers. When it got to 7, GB bettors started throwing down. So it's really too hard to tell, but I can guess the heavy hitters already have Dal -6.5 and are either sticking w/ it (no play on GB) or are planning to keep Dal -6.5 but go very large on GB and buy to +7.5, because they think GB will cover, but want to shoot the middle if Dal happens to win by 7.

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Any clue as to how he's been doing?

 

As for the GB/Dal game, I may end up playing it, but it's definitely not a game that jumps out to me now as particular value. I think the line is set about right. My system is showing a Dal victory by just under 10 points, rounded appx score of 31-21. I have no problem fading my system if I see particular value in doing so, and have not made a play on Dal since it's not of enough value to trigger anything (posted system plays are above, and Dal is not mentioned).

 

Right now, 60% is on GB but the line has gone from opening at most outlets at -6.5 to now -7. Could be one of 3 things:

 

1. Heavy early money on Dal thinking they will win by a TD or more, but more "joe public" bets on GB

2. a Vegas tactic to make you think that way

3. or the big dogs buying in early on Dal -6.5 only to shift the line to hopefully 7.5 by kick (or just buy that half point) and then buying back large on GB +7.5. In which case they would make a sh*tload if Dal won by a TD.

 

I'm guessing that when the line opened at -6.5 you had GB bettors holding off and Dal bettors placing wagers. When it got to 7, GB bettors started throwing down. So it's really too hard to tell, but I can guess the heavy hitters already have Dal -6.5 and are either sticking w/ it (no play on GB) or are planning to keep Dal -6.5 but go very large on GB and buy to +7.5, because they think GB will cover, but want to shoot the middle if Dal happens to win by 7.

 

I am leaning towards DAL myself, but this one is tough. Bookmaker is also DAL -7 right now, going to poke around a bit more before making a wager either way.

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I don't know, CAR is a disaster unless Vinny T plays, and even then they're just LESS of a disaster :D

 

Car has been bad. But don't forget, SF has been downright bad as well, losing 8 in a row and going 1-7 ATS before getting that win in Arizona. Could be what they need to get momentum. However, they have a 1pm EST game and have to make the trip. So far this season, they've come to the East Coast for two 1pm games.

 

Lost @ Pit 16-37

Lost @ NYG 15-33

 

Car has lost 5 in a row and lost all 5 games ATS. I don't like having my money on Car, especially after last weekend. But I'm not committed yet to buying back on SF. I have Car -3 +112 and you can still get SF for +3, and w/ 58% on Car now, I'll wait to see how the line looks. Some shops are down to +2.5, but +3 is still WA.

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FYI, Farve is 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS in the regular season in Dallas, losing by an avg of 14 and failing to cover by an avg of 9.

 

Those games were all in the 90s: 93-96 and 99.

 

Of course, Dallas won the SB in 93, lost in NFC Champ in 94, while GB finished 9-7 each year but made the playoffs.

 

However, interesting to note:

 

GB met Dal in the 93 playoffs and lost 27-17

GB met Dal in the 94 playoffs and lost 35-9

 

In 95 and 96:

 

GB met Dal in the 95 playoffs and lost 38-27

GB never played Dal in the playoffs in 96, the year they won the SB

 

If GB faced Dal in the playoffs any other years w/ Farve, please let me know.

 

Otherwise, it looks like GB has never won in Dallas w/ Farve, and is 0-8 SU. I'd have to look harder at the spreads for those playoff games, but they lost each by 10 or more points.

 

I think most people would say GB is at least a TD as good as Dallas. So the question would be, are most people right?

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Car has been bad. But don't forget, SF has been downright bad as well, losing 8 in a row and going 1-7 ATS before getting that win in Arizona. Could be what they need to get momentum. However, they have a 1pm EST game and have to make the trip. So far this season, they've come to the East Coast for two 1pm games.

 

Lost @ Pit 16-37

Lost @ NYG 15-33

 

Car has lost 5 in a row and lost all 5 games ATS. I don't like having my money on Car, especially after last weekend. But I'm not committed yet to buying back on SF. I have Car -3 +112 and you can still get SF for +3, and w/ 58% on Car now, I'll wait to see how the line looks. Some shops are down to +2.5, but +3 is still WA.

 

Ah, I'd forgotten they play SF this week! Excellent point, CAR is back on the table for me. I hope Vinny plays (did I just type that?)

 

They are winless at home, maybe THIS is the week?

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FWIW - the handicapping "expert" on Dennis Miller's new show on VS. listed his plays this week. He likes

 

PHI -3

Indy -7

and especially GB+6.5, saying that Dallas was exposed a little last week having to pull one out against the Redskins and that the Pack have been one of the most underrated teams in recent years, he thinks they'll win outright.

 

Food for thought.

 

 

the "expert" is Brandon Lang

 

HERE is video of a the past couple weeks if you want to see how he did. this weeks video not posted here yet.

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the "expert" is Brandon Lang

 

HERE is video of a the past couple weeks if you want to see how he did. this weeks video not posted here yet.

 

First, I'm glad you said Lang because now I know to keep my distance.

 

Second, he's picking 3 games for each week. For some reason, last week, Lang takes Det +3.5 on TG, but says GB will win by 3 and "you'll want the 0.5". So the guy has 16 games on the board, and he picks the 1 which he thinks will cover by 0.5 points. Just stupid.

 

He's been bad bad bad this year.

 

As of 2 Monday's ago, he was:

 

THIS WEEK

-61 dimes

 

LAST 21 DAYS

-167.5 dimes

 

LAST 28 DAYS

-59 dime

 

LAST 90 DAYS

-102.5 dimes

 

LAST 114 DAYS

-144.5 dimes

 

Since then, he had:

 

25 Dimes on Ten on MNF: Lost

15 Dimes on Dal on TG: Won

5 Dimes on ATL on TG: Lost

25 Dimes on Jac on Sun: Won

25 Dimes on AZ on Sun: Lost

25 Dimes on TB on Sun: Won

10 Dimes on NO on Sun: Won

10 Dimes on NE/Phi Over on Sun: Won

50 Dimes on Pit on MNF: Lost

 

Which is a net of -20 Dimes.

 

On those shows, he went 1-2 last week w/ NE over Phi, Det over GB and Oak over KC

Two weeks ago he went 2-1 w/ Det over NYG, Jac over SD, and NE over Buf

Three weeks ago he went 1-2 w/ NYG over Dal, Min over GB and SD over Ind

 

That's 4-5 in these "pick 3" games.

 

I'm tired of the fact that the dumb "public" thinks Lang is an expert because of Two for the Money. The guy sometimes gets hot, but for the most part, is flat out bad.

Edited by Steeltown Dre
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Yeah, he's been awful, just awful. I know guys (and I'm sure you all do too) that fade him on a regular basis.

 

Not too worry, I'm sure he'll continue his self-proclaimed "Undefeated Streak" with regard to the Super Bowl :D

 

Even if he truly WAS on the right side of the SB each year, you'd probably have to bet about 5,000 Dimes just to break even :D

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Any info/trends on the total?

 

2 ways to look at the game from a record standpoint:

 

#1: Teams w/ "1 loss or fewer" that meet, and they each have at least 6 wins.

 

Here, both teams are 10-1, but there was only 1 other time that happened:

 

There has been only 1 other time that two 10-1 teams met, and that was 1990 SF vs. NYG, w/ the final being 7-3, game went Under.

 

The other closest games to meetings between 2 "1 loss or better" teams w/ at least 6 wins:

 

1991 Week 10, 8-0 Was vs. 7-1 Houston, Was favored by 6, won 16-13, game went Under

1999 Week 9. 6-1 Miami vs. 6-1 Tennessee, Mia was favored by 3, won 17-0, game went Under

2004 Week 9, 7-0 Phi @ 6-1 Pittsburgh, line was a pickem, Pit won 27-3, game went Under

2006 Week 9, 7-0 Indy @ 6-1 NE, NE was favored by 3, Indy won 27-20, game went Under

2007 Week 9, 8-0 NE @ 7-0 Indy, NE was favored by 4.5, NE won 24-20, game went Under

 

So, 6 games including the 1990 game:

 

Largest spread was 6 points

 

Home teams went 4-2 ATS and 4-2 SU

Favorites went 2-3 ATS and 4-1 SU (Pit/Phi was pickem so no fav)

 

Spreads covered by favs -3.5 and -3

Spreads covered by dogs +6, +4.5, +3

 

O/U

 

All 6 games went Under

 

Avg line for all 6 games: 45 points

 

Avg result was Under by at least 15 points

 

Highest total 56 for the Ind/NE game. Final score was 44.

2nd highest was 48.5 for the previous Ind/NE game. Final score was 47 (closest game to actual total)

 

This Thurs we have 10-1 GB @ 10-1 Dal. Line is Dal -7, O/U of 51.5

 

So that's one way to look at it: 1 loss teams playing each other.

 

The other way:

 

#2: Games between 2 teams who have each won at least 5 in a row.

 

Here, Dallas has won 5 in a row, GB has won 6 in a row.

 

There have been 10 times this has happened in the past. I won't break out every game, but I will say:

 

First time it happened was in 2000 (Was vs. Ten)

 

The largest spread was -9.5 points.

 

It happened twice this year. First time was actually Dallas vs. NE. 2nd time was NE vs. Ind

 

The favorite has gone 1-8-1 ATS in those games, w/ the only cover being this years NE team over Dallas.

 

The O/U has gone 6-4

 

The largest over was 57 in the game SD/Ind in 2004, which ended 34-31 and went over.

 

There were 3 games w/ the total over 45, all 3 games totals were in the 50s (avg of 55). O/U went 2-1, w/ the avg final score being 61 points.

 

In the 7 games where the total was less than 45, the avg total was a very low 38 points. O/U went 4-3, w/ the avg final score being 37 points.

 

Conclusions

 

In looking at the 1 loss teams, favs went 2-3 and all games went Under. Largest line was 6 points, and largest line a fav covered was -3.5

In looking at streaking teams (5+ wins in a row), favs went 1-8-1 and Unders went 4-6.

 

So either way you slice it, 7 points is pretty large for this type of matchup, and the historical results don't bode well for Dallas. Some bettors think Dal should be favored, but only by say 4 or 5 points. Do you buy the 7 and hope GB covers? That's the question you have to ask. And it seems many have done that, and bought the 7.

 

Dal was favored by only 6 heading into last week, but their dominant perfomance over NYJ and GB holding off Det until the 4th quarter and then getting the Win gave Dal an extra half point. Sharpies basically laid into Dal at the -6, driving it up and up and now it's at -7 and they are laying off of Dal, and the bets are coming in on GB.

 

From a public perspective, GB has played in some tough environments and pulled out wins. In Mile HIgh, in KC, and then getting 2 wins in domes (Det and Min), and 1 win at NYG.

 

The only real dominating perfomance Dal has had at home was against the Jets and St. Louis. They beat NYG by 10 in a shootout, Min by 10 in a "closer than the score" game, and Was by 5 in a very close on.

 

GB is a solid team, but the public has a lot of respect for Dallas. In general, I think most people think Dal is a better team. However, in a game where both teams are as good as they are, 7 points is hard to pass up. More to come on the subject, but I'm not putting any play in today unless something changes. I won't take Dal at -7 right now, and am not sold on GB as of yet.

 

Certainly my above analysis would show some value in GB and the Under. I already have a system play in on the Under. Interested to hear other analysis/opinions.

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Wanted to update ATS records:

 

Green Bay___9-1-1 10-1-0

New England_9-2-0 11-0-0

Cleveland____9-2-0 7-4-0

Dallas______ 8-3-0 10-1-0

Indianapolis_ 7-4-0 9-2-0

Jacksonville__7-4-0 8-3-0

Tampa Bay__ 7-4-0 7-4-0

Arizona_____ 7-4-0 5-6-0

Buffalo______ 6-4-1 5-6-0

Pittsburgh___ 6-5-0 8-3-0

N.Y. Giants__ 6-5-0 7-4-0

Seattle______6-5-0 7-4-0

San Diego___ 6-5-0 6-5-0

Minnesota___ 5-4-2 5-6-0

Philadelphia__6-5-0 5-6-0

Atlanta______6-5-0 3-8-0

Detroit______ 5-5-1 6-5-0

Kansas City__5-5-1 4-7-0

Tennessee__ 5-6-0 6-5-0

Houston____ 5-6-0 5-6-0

Cincinnati___ 5-6-0 4-7-0

Miami_______3-5-3 0-11-0

Chicago_____ 4-7-0 5-6-0

New Orleans__4-7-0 5-6-0

Washington__ 3-6-2 5-6-0

Carolina_____ 4-7-0 4-7-0

Oakland_____ 4-7-0 3-8-0

N.Y. Jets____ 3-7-1 2-9-0

Denver______ 3-8-0 5-6-0

San Francisco 3-8-0 3-8-0

St. Louis____ 3-8-0 2-9-0

Baltimore____ 1-10-0 4-7-0

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I had never heard of the guy before and couldn't remember his name, that's why my original post listed him as Miller's "expert." For the record this past week he went 2-1 on Miller's show picks and says that if he knew Feely was going to start for Philly he would have picked them and been 3-0. I guess you should always be skeptical of a guy who backpedals that fast claiming that he knew Feely was going to blow up last week. :D

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Dre - talk down here is Garcia won't be playing - I'm on NO already for that reason.

 

I may be the only one, but like Green Bay tonight. Have a few football related reasons, but at the end of the day I can get two relatively even teams at more than a TD (bought to 7.5) so that's enough for me without getting too much into the football side. Also parlayed the ML of Pack and Rutgers for kicks as I think both these games could go either way.

 

Took NE -20.5 and Phi -3 early cause both will go up i believe.

 

As of this week, I've bet 84 games (1 unit straight 7 games a week - that's my very boring system)....record is like 41-37-6 (all 6 are FG games I didn't buy early) ... and with the juice, I'm at exactly $0.00 on my straight betting

 

Luckily my parlay's have been working out...

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