Steeltown Dre Posted November 30, 2007 Author Share Posted November 30, 2007 I've already got that system play on the under. I've added a bit more on to the under. I am leaning towards Dal, though I have not made the play yet. But since I like Dal and the Under, it would not be too bad to try a tease on it. Didn't do it myself, but I have thought about it. If I do it, I'll post if I am going to count it towards the record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 Dr. Bob has a "strong opinion" Dr. Bob Strong Opinion DALLAS (-7.0) 30 Green Bay 17 05:15 PM Pacific, 29-Nov-07 Green Bay has been red-hot since their bye week, winning and covering all 5 games heading into the NFC showdown with fellow 10-1 team Dallas. The Packers are certainly capable of competing in this game, but they apply to a very negative 24-75-3 ATS road letdown situation tonight while Dallas applies to a very strong 74-27-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I’d love to play Dallas here as a Best Bet, but the line is a little high. Green Bay is no longer a one-dimensional offense team since RB Ryan Grant burst onto the scene with 467 rushing yards at 4.6 ypr in 5 games since taking over the running back position. Brett Favre is having an exceptional season and the Packers are actually rate the same offensively as the Cowboys’ potent attack (both are 1.2 yards per play better than average). The Packers are 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, but that’s not nearly as good as a stingy Cowboys’ defense that is 0.9 yppl better than average since star LB Greg Ellis began playing in week 4. Overall my math model favors Dallas by just 4 points since Green Bay is better on special team, but the situation and statistical indicator favoring Dallas are both strong enough to give up some line value. I’ll consider Dallas a Strong Opinion at -7 or less and I’d take Dallas in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 or less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted November 30, 2007 Author Share Posted November 30, 2007 Can't find him, but he seems pretty sure of his play. From his site: $100.00 NFL 50* Green Bay/Dallas Must Win or rest of NFL season is free! (Non-Refundable Purchase) Ross is so confident in this 50* Game Of The Year selection that if it does not win you will get the rest of the NFL season including the playoffs and The Super Bowl FREE! This is a non-refundable purchase. I wonder what it is... Don't know his style, so not sure if he's a dog bettor or not, or if he likes totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 I've already got that system play on the under. I've added a bit more on to the under. I am leaning towards Dal, though I have not made the play yet. But since I like Dal and the Under, it would not be too bad to try a tease on it. Didn't do it myself, but I have thought about it. If I do it, I'll post if I am going to count it towards the record. In light of the GB injuries, I did make a small play on DAL -6.5. I like the teaser idea, DAL as a pick and U58.5 sounds pretty good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 I wonder what it is... Don't know his style, so not sure if he's a dog bettor or not, or if he likes totals. I don't know thing one about him, he must be difficult to get; frankly I don't know that I've ever seen one of his plays around my usual haunts. No Budin tonight either, did check his site, no play as far as I could tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted November 30, 2007 Author Share Posted November 30, 2007 I don't know thing one about him, he must be difficult to get; frankly I don't know that I've ever seen one of his plays around my usual haunts. No Budin tonight either, did check his site, no play as far as I could tell. Yea, Budin is not playing. That's the good thing about him. He's not a "tout" according to him, he passes along "info" on certain games. Unlike most "touts", who play at least 1 game every day there is a game for the most part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 side note: If your offices offer 1st period hockey 1.5 lines take under 1.5 in the first period in the Rangers / Islanders game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted November 30, 2007 Author Share Posted November 30, 2007 Did you hear some inside info or was this a hunch of yours? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted November 30, 2007 Author Share Posted November 30, 2007 Ross Benjamin, the guy w/ that play GDawg and I have been talking about, is on Green Bay - paid for and confirmed. With him and LVTR on Green Bay, thats some hot action on GB. I'm steering clear of side and hoping for the under. Playing it like a normal play, I see some better plays I like more this weekend... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 (edited) Did you hear some inside info or was this a hunch of yours? Did you take the game ? I have been doing well on first period hockey bets..The Rangers and the Islanders have great Goalies and Rangers are great at penalty killing ..The Islanders power play has been really weak lately..So I figured they would not score 2 in the first 20 minutes.. Edited November 30, 2007 by whomper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 Ross Benjamin, the guy w/ that play GDawg and I have been talking about, is on Green Bay - paid for and confirmed. With him and LVTR on Green Bay, thats some hot action on GB. I'm steering clear of side and hoping for the under. Playing it like a normal play, I see some better plays I like more this weekend... Well, I'm on the under and DAL -6.5. I don't like being opposite a guy that's offering his service for the rest of the year if he's wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 Good luck Gdawg, unfortunately I'm playing exactly the opposite......just took GB +7 and over 52. Ive got that damn gut feeling and its killing me Whatever happens, we'll all get ours this sunday - some good matchups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 Good luck Gdawg, unfortunately I'm playing exactly the opposite......just took GB +7 and over 52. Ive got that damn gut feeling and its killing me Whatever happens, we'll all get ours this sunday - some good matchups. True enough Mojo, we'll get 'em this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 Speaking of Lang: Brandon Lang THURSDAY 40 DIME Green Bay Packers 15 DIME Rutgers Brandon Wang's two top plays: 0-2 (rutgers +2.5) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 Brandon Wang's two top plays: 0-2 (rutgers +2.5) I'm shocked, I say, shocked! Funny, I won the play I was certain I'd lose, but lost the play I was certain I'd win. So, down .5 units this week with regard to NFL betting. Well, time to buckle down and find value this weekend. Hopefully through wise, disciplined betting I can make up for lost ground. Anyone know who Lang likes this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 Brandon Lang jinxed this....with 30 minutes (real time) left till the end of both games (they ended pretty close to each other), Rutgers was up 3 TD's and the pack had pulled to within 3...Then the brandon Lang jinx took over and both fell apart dammit - can I sue him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted November 30, 2007 Author Share Posted November 30, 2007 As for the GB/Dal game, I may end up playing it, but it's definitely not a game that jumps out to me now as particular value. I think the line is set about right. My system is showing a Dal victory by just under 10 points, rounded appx score of 31-21. I have no problem fading my system if I see particular value in doing so, and have not made a play on Dal since it's not of enough value to trigger anything (posted system plays are above, and Dal is not mentioned). Well, my system was right on the margin of victory, and close on the score, but you know what they say about close... So my under lost but my lean on Dal would have won. Didn't make the play, of course, so 0-1 on posted plays and 1-0 on leans. I do see some things for this weekend, and will hopefully finalize my card sometime by Saturday afternoon, and get my bets in, and will try to post them as soon as I can after that. Might not be until early Sun morning, my Sat looks busy, but we'll see. Congrats to all Dal bettors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 (edited) Well, my system was right on the margin of victory, and close on the score, but you know what they say about close... So my under lost but my lean on Dal would have won. Didn't make the play, of course, so 0-1 on posted plays and 1-0 on leans. I do see some things for this weekend, and will hopefully finalize my card sometime by Saturday afternoon, and get my bets in, and will try to post them as soon as I can after that. Might not be until early Sun morning, my Sat looks busy, but we'll see. Congrats to all Dal bettors. I'm still amazed the game went over, especially once Favre went out. Of course it might have been even worse, given all the INT'S he was chucking Edited November 30, 2007 by Gdawg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 How can Lang look himself in the mirror any more? And how can I for not fading him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 (edited) How can Lang look himself in the mirror any more? And how can I for not fading him? Were it not for all the injuries, we could have seen a very different outcome. Edited November 30, 2007 by Gdawg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 Were it not for all the injuries, we could have seen a very different outcome. Well, that's the thing about it. We saw basically the game I thought we would see. But there were enough quirks including the GB decision to kick the field goal at 4th and a half yard at the end of the game. That swung the game as far as the spread went. I was not amused. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted November 30, 2007 Author Share Posted November 30, 2007 dammit - can I sue him? No, but you can fade him. Starts on November 1st 1st -11.5 dimes 2nd -17 dimes 3rd -7 dimes 4th -76.5 dimes 5th +25 dimes 6th +5 dimes 7th -6 dimes 8th -18 dimes 9th +4 dimes 10th +40 dimes 11th -39 dimes 12th -27.5 dimes 13th -22.5 dimes 14th +4 dimes 15th +7.5 dimes 16th +24.5 dimes 17th +12 dimes 18th -59 dimes 19th -22.5 dimes 20th +35 dimes 21st -11.5 dimes 22nd +34.5 dimes 23rd -23 dimes 24th -34 dimes 25th +42.5 dimes 26th -55 dimes 27th -6 dimes 28th -7 dimes That puts him at -209 dimes for the month of November 5 dimes 23-20-1 10 dimes 7-10-1 15 dimes 9-12-2 20 dimes 3-3 25 dimes 8-6 30 dimes 3-5 40 dimes 0 50 dimes 2-3 This was from another site, and it doesn't include going 0-2 and losing 55 dimes plus juice last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 I hit my Dallas / over tease but lost the under in Rutgers.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted November 30, 2007 Author Share Posted November 30, 2007 Did you take the game ? I have been doing well on first period hockey bets..The Rangers and the Islanders have great Goalies and Rangers are great at penalty killing ..The Islanders power play has been really weak lately..So I figured they would not score 2 in the first 20 minutes.. I didn't play it, but I start paying attention/tailing after seeing quick success like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 I didn't play it, but I start paying attention/tailing after seeing quick success like that. Tonight I like Stl Louis/ Minn under 1.5 first period Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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