Week 14 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

Personally, I have posted 2 types of plays this year. My "system plays" which are derived from a system I have created, and my "posted plays" are either plays in addition to those plays (or at times may fade the system), or "system plays" which I want to alert as plays I think have great value, and want to add more money onto:

 

I will update my system plays and record in the next post. Here are my posted plays:

 

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 4-0

Week 4: 3-1

Week 5: 2-2-1

Week 6: 3-2-1

Week 7: 2-4

Week 8: 1-5

Week 9: 5-6 (Leans posted 2-0)

Week 10: 2-1

Week 11: 4-2-1

Week 12: 4-2 (Leans posted 2-0)

Week 13: 2-3 (Leans posted 2-0)

 

Overall: 39-29-3

Including leans: 48-30-3 (62%)

 

Next I'll update system records and plays for week 14

[Steeltown Dre]

Prior to posting this, I will tell you that the Cin/Stl game is not up at many locations. For purposes of this I have included a line of Cin-6.5 O/U 48.

 

Also the TB/Hou game is not up either, and I input a line of "pickem" into my system, w/ no O/U as I don't have one yet. My system calculates a line of either TB+0.5 or TB +2.5, in either case, no significant value on TB vs. the projected line.

 

System Plays Week 14:

 

1. Top ATS predictor has gone 8-7 (53%) this season and has no calculations this week. FYI - I tweaked the value I give to the home team for HFA in a split off of one of my current ATS systems. By doing so, the system would have gone 36-20 on the season for 64%. I'll post those plays as part of #1 and keep track of them from here out: Jac, Cin, Atl

 

2. Top 5 leans each week:

 

Week 3: 4-1

Week 4: 5-0

Week 5: 2-3

Week 6: 3-2

Week 7: 2-3

Week 8: 3-2

Week 9: 4-1

Week 10: 1-4

Week 11: 3-2

Week 12: 4-1

Week 13: 3-2

 

Total 34-21 (62%)

 

This week's selections:

 

Jac

Sea

NYJ

Cin

Atl

 

3. I have one ATS simulator that is pretty honest, and one that is more biased towards the dogs. I keep track of when both simulators show value for the same team. I made one error calc last week, and instead of the system being 29-25-7 ATS (54%) it currently sits at 31-27-7 (53%).

 

This week both systems show value for:

 

Det

Min

NYJ\

TB

Atl

 

4. I have also tracked when I have seen the wrong team favored. In other words, times when my system is showing the dog could actually win the game. In some cases, the dog does win, in other cases he covers, and then of course, there are times he fails to cover.

 

Here's how those picks have gone:

 

Week 3: Hou over Indy (ATS and SU Loss), GB over SD (ATS and SU Win), ATL over Car (ATS and SU Loss), Ten over NO (ATS and SU win). 2-2 ATS, 2-2 SU

Week 4: Cle over Bal (ATS and SU Win), Det over Chi (ATS and SU Win), Buf tie w/ NYJ (ATS win and SU Loss), NYG over Phi (ATS and SU win). 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU

Week 5: KC over Jac (ATS and SU Loss), SF over Bal (ATS win and SU Loss). 1-1 ATS, 0-2 SU

Week 6: KC over Cin (ATS and SU Win). 1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU

Week 7: Buf over Bal (ATS and SU Win), TB over Det (ATS and SU Loss), Jac over Ind (ATS and SU Loss). 1-2 ATS and 1-2 SU

Week 8: Min over Philly (ATS and SU Loss)

Week 9: NYJ over Was (ATS Win, SU Loss), Jac over NO (ATS and SU Loss), Buf over Cin (ATS and SU Win), Phi over Dal (ATS and SU Loss)

Week 10: Mia over Buf (ATS Push, SU L), Oak over Chi (ATS and SU L), NYG over Dal (ATS and SU L), Det over Ari (ATS and SU L)

Week 11: Bal over Cle (ATS Push, SU L), Det over NYG (ATS and SU L), SF over StL (ATS and SU L)

Week 12: Cin over Ten (ATS and SU W), Car over NO (ATS and SU L)

Week 13: TB over NO (ATS and SU W), Oak over Den (ATS and SU W)

 

Summary: 14-13-2 ATS, 11-18 SU

 

This week here's the games the system is showing the wrong team is favored:

 

Ten over SD

NYJ over Cle

Atl over NO

 

____________________________________________

 

 

Now, onto the O/U Systems:

 

1. Top Overs predictor has gone 12-0 (100%) this season w/ no selections last weekend.

 

On Thurs it likes Chi/Was over

 

2. I also have another Overs predictor which is 16-4 (80%). This weekend it has no selections.

 

3. The best Overs simulator has gone 37-24 this season (61%) including 0-3 last weekend. Here are all Overs leans for this weekend:

 

Chi/Was

Car/Jac

GB/Oak

KC/Den

Stl/Cin Under (if at 48)

 

4. The "top plays" from the best Unders simulator have gone 26-16 (62%) including 3-2 last week. This week the top Unders are:

 

Det/Dal

Cle/NYJ

Stl/Cin

NO/Atl

 

5. When I combine these 2 simulators and compare each game, there are times that even the Over simulator has a lean to the Under, and sometimes even the Unders simulator has a lean to the Over. When both simulators lean to the same side, I have tracked those plays. The record has been 42-23 (65%) including 3-3 last weekend.

 

This weekend we have:

 

Chi/Was Over

Dal/Det Under

NE/Pit Under

Cle/NYJ Under

[Gdawg]

Any thoughts on tonight's game? Right now I think I'm leaving it alone...

 

Two down and out, struggling teams. Anyone see a play here?

[Steeltown Dre]

Any thoughts on tonight's game? Right now I think I'm leaving it alone...

 

Two down and out, struggling teams. Anyone see a play here?

 

My top overs which are 12-0 on the year are saying Over tonight. I followed it (as always) and that's the main action I like tonight as of right now.

 

If you want your daily Lang fade:

 

Brandon Lang

 

THURSDAY

 

10 DIME

REDSKINS -

MAVERICKS

 

5 DIME

PROVIDENCE

VALPARAISO

 

Free Pick - Redskins/Bears Over the posted total

 

 

 

JUST A REMINDER:

 

Lang Update:

 

0-3 WED FOR -27.5 DIMES

 

0-2 tuesday for -22 more dimes

 

0-3 MONDAY FOR - 44 DIMES

 

 

 

THIS WEEK (started just Monday!!) -93.5 dimes

 

LAST 43 DAYS: -349 dimes

 

Since November 1st -462.5 dimes

 

LAST 131 DAYS: -453 dimes

 

 

Lang is on the Over as his free pick, so I don't feel completely cursed, as he doesn't like it enough to put any of his clients dimes on it, it probably will win.

[Gdawg]

My top overs which are 12-0 on the year are saying Over tonight. I followed it (as always) and that's the main action I like tonight as of right now.

 

If you want your daily Lang fade:

 

Brandon Lang

 

THURSDAY

 

10 DIME

REDSKINS -

MAVERICKS

 

5 DIME

PROVIDENCE

VALPARAISO

 

Free Pick - Redskins/Bears Over the posted total

JUST A REMINDER:

 

Lang Update:

 

0-3 WED FOR -27.5 DIMES

 

0-2 tuesday for -22 more dimes

 

0-3 MONDAY FOR - 44 DIMES

THIS WEEK (started just Monday!!) -93.5 dimes

 

LAST 43 DAYS: -349 dimes

 

Since November 1st -462.5 dimes

 

LAST 131 DAYS: -453 dimes

Lang is on the Over as his free pick, so I don't feel completely cursed, as he doesn't like it enough to put any of his clients dimes on it, it probably will win.

 

I saw Lang was on WAS and the Over tonight. True enough, since he apparently has no confidence in his "over" pick, it's probably the right call

[rattsass]

I saw Lang was on WAS

 

Oh crap. I parlayed the Monday night halftime with Washington.

 

Now I think I'll hedge that with a Bears/over teaser.

[Steeltown Dre]

A couple quick hits:

 

Anyone who thinks "cold weather makes games go under" is more or less wrong. There actually are a higher rate of "overs" in weeks 14-the end of the season than there are in weeks prior to December. (on avg)

 

Usually, the first 4 weeks more unders. Then the next 4 weeks more overs. Then the next 4 weeks more unders, and finally the last quarter of the season, more overs.

 

Same holds true for "night games" - MNF games typically have slightly more overs towards the end of the season than in the beginning/middle of the season.

 

None of that means anything for tonight, just trying to disuade anyone from taking an over because of the "cold time of year" argument. Of course, my brief look does not account for weather or temperature, it just looked at the "week". Suffice it to say, there will be a higher % of "cold weather" games in Dec than there would be in Oct, but I didnt' study the temperature effect on totals.

 

Lastly, to make you even more confused: Every single TNF game last year after Thanksgiving went Under. Week 13, 14, 15 and 16, all went under by an avg of a whopping 12 points.

 

So far this year we are 1-0 w/ GB/Dal going over by 12.5 points.

[Steeltown Dre]

Oh crap. I parlayed the Monday night halftime with Washington.

 

On avg, (ignoring the NE game), Was scores 3.4 points in the 1st quarter and its opponent also scores 3.4 points.

2nd Quarter: Was 7.1 points, opponent 4 points

3rd Quarter: Was 3.8 points, opponent 4.1 points

4th Quarter: Was 5.4 points, opponent 7.2 points

 

Overall Was scores about 1.5 points more, but is definitely outscored after halftime, therefore a 1st half play isn't a bad idea.

 

At home the difference is even more dramatic:

 

1st: Was 2.8, Opp 1.7

2nd: Was 8.7, Opp 2.5

3rd: Was 4.3, Opp 4.2

4th: Was 5.2, Opp 9.8

[Steeltown Dre]

Skins have been home favs 6 games. SU 3-3, ATS 1-4-1

 

At the half, they have been leading by at least 5 points in 5 of the 6 games. They were losing at the half to Mia.

 

Bears are 2-2 as road dogs, both SU and ATS

 

They had a 3 pt lead at the half over SD week 1

They were down by 10 at the half to GB

They were down by 6 at the half to Phi

They were tied at the half w/ Sea

[Gdawg]

I'm agitated because Lang likes Valpo...and so do I...

 

Not good

[rattsass]

More great numbers there Dre, but actually I took Wash. for the game and paired it with the 2nd half line from Monday night, just to clarify. I added a Bears/over teaser, hoping I am going to hit the middle on the points, or at least offset the Lang curse.

[Steeltown Dre]

More great numbers there Dre, but actually I took Wash. for the game and paired it with the 2nd half line from Monday night, just to clarify. I added a Bears/over teaser, hoping I am going to hit the middle on the points, or at least offset the Lang curse.

 

Well, reading your post again, I guess that should have been clear. I missed what you were saying and saw "halftime" and "Washington" and got instantly motivated to do a quick analysis.

 

I guess the bottom line of the point I was trying to make was:

 

When Was has been a home fav, if you took them ATS on the game you would be a miserable 1-4-1. If you took them just on the 1st half, you would be a terrific 5-1 ATS.

[rattsass]

Well, reading your post again, I guess that should have been clear. I missed what you were saying and saw "halftime" and "Washington" and got instantly motivated to do a quick analysis.

 

I guess the bottom line of the point I was trying to make was:

 

When Was has been a home fav, if you took them ATS on the game you would be a miserable 1-4-1. If you took them just on the 1st half, you would be a terrific 5-1 ATS.

So you are saying my bet sucks.

 

Exactly. My instincts have been so wrong the last couple of weeks, I have resorted to doing the opposite of what logic tells me to. That and fading Lang is my only defense mechanism.

 

I'm liking my teaser better than the last half of the parlay for sure.

[Steeltown Dre]

These guys are supposedly on a 28-8 NFL run since 10-1-07.

 

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): CHICAGO BEARS vs WASHINGTON REDSKINS

 

Play: WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3

Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3 ^^^ Okay, lets take out the Sean Taylor equation here. Too many cappers using this tragedy as a device for handicapping this game. It's a tragedy and it deserves it's time in the spotlight but it's not the reason Washington will win and cover this evening. If you're about to be tackled by a 300 pound lineman running at you at full force with the only intention of causing you great bodily harm, the last thing you'll be thinking of is tributes and motivational speeches. Instinct takes over and ultimately it's the better team that wins tonight and that is what it's about. Chicago comes in with the a defense that is 27th in rush defense in the NFL. That's going to be a problem against Clinton Portis. Considering Joe Gibbs likes to grind games out. You can expect to see a full dose of Portis tonight. Chicago is also 25th against the pass. What s our point? Too much press and hype which is a nice way to say the Bears once feared defense is over rated. Washington has seen much tougher this season and held their own. As for Portis, he shines when he plays the Bears. He has run for 457 yards on 71 carries (6.4 yards per carry) in three career games against them. Washington did have an emotional week, but it's time to tighten the belt and get back to work, Both teams playing on a short week so we immediately would lean towards the home team here as they don't face travel time and have more time to prep. Chicago is 6-23 ATS away in December. Facing a short week, up against a weak rush defense, we'll side with the home team here.

Edited December 6, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

So you are saying my bet sucks.

 

Exactly. My instincts have been so wrong the last couple of weeks, I have resorted to doing the opposite of what logic tells me to. That and fading Lang is my only defense mechanism.

 

I'm liking my teaser better than the last half of the parlay for sure.

 

No no no - not saying it sucks, I was just stating that a 1st half play has usually worked out on the Skins as home favs.

[Steeltown Dre]

WAYNE ROOT

 

Chairman - Redskins

[Steeltown Dre]

More on that - in the 4th quarter, Skins at home have averaged 5 points. But that is inflated due to them scoring 18 against Det.

 

Looking at the other games:

 

4th Quarter points scored at home for the Skins (ignoring Det game):

 

3 vs Mia

0 vs NYG

0 vs Ari

10 vs Phi

0 vs Buf

 

The Bears on the road have averaged almost 10 points in the 4th. That is reduced because in week 1 they scored 0 vs SD.

 

4th Quarter points scored on the road for the Bears (ignoring SD game):

 

14 at Det

10 at GB

13 at Phi

14 at Oak

6 at Sea

 

So if you have Was -3 for this game, I would pay close attention to the 4th, because this season, Skins have really not scored much in the 4th.

 

In terms of what they have allowed: almost 10 points in the 4th, same as Chi averages. And that includes shutting out Det in the 4th.

 

4th Quarter points ALLOWED at home for the Skins (ignoring Det game):

 

3 vs Mia

14 vs NYG

13 vs Ari

20 vs Phi

9 vs Buf

 

As you can see (ignoring the lame Dolphins) the Skins really allow a ton in the 4th, and don't score much in the 4th. And the Bears score some points in the 4th.

 

I'm hoping for the Over, and hoping it will be over by the 3rd quarter, but if it's not, I'm hopeful the Bears will push it over in teh 4th, because the Skins might not....

[Steeltown Dre]

Antonwins				  3* CHIasa					  4* Over 5.5 Boston vs Montreal ATS FINANCIAL			   3* CHI				 3* DENATS LOCK				  3* CHI Over				 3* UW-Green BayAtslocks.com				  10* Butler -10BeatingTheLines			   Valpo				 Jacksonville ST.Big Al					 DallasBrandon Lang			   REDSKINS				 MAVERICKS				 PROVIDENCE				 VALPARAISOBURNS___________________________________________	  REDSKINS (-3 or better)				 PREDATORS				 PORTLAND (+2 or better)				 DETROIT (+9 or better)Cappers Access			   CHI Bears				 S.CarolinaCharlies Sports			   500*CHI/WAS Under				 chicago+3 (30*)				 dallas-7 (20*)				 south carolia+3' (20*)				 villanova-9' (10*)DOC'S					 Niagara -3DR CHAD				  5* WASH				 5* DEN				 5* Butler				 5* Tenn St.				 3* Wright St.   Discount Sports Picks			   5* Chicago +3 over Washington 											5* Denver +7 over Dallas Elite Sports Picks			   Denver/Dallas (NBA) OVER 213.5Ferringo				  Southeast Missouri State (-3)				 Valparaiso (+1.5)				 Wisconsin-Green Bay (+1)				 Bowling Green (+110)Frank Rosenthal   BEARS+3 SBUNDER 38 SB+  MAVS-7 SB+  HEAT-3 SB  UNDER 186.5 SB+  PROVIDENCE-3 SBTEMPLE-12 SB+VILLANOVA-9 SBNIAGARA-3 SB		 Gamblers world			   Atlanta(NBA)GOLDSHEET				  *Chicago 19 - WASHINGTON 17greg shaker				   Wis.-Green Bay 0.0	Insider Sports Report			   4* Denver/Dallas OVER 				 4* Providence -3.5 over S. Carolina				 3* Chicago/Washington OVER 37J E N K I N S – HOCKEY			TORONTO   JEFFERSONSPORTS			CALGARY-145Jim Rich				  Over Bears 37 1/2   Joe Wiz   Loyola Chi -2 NCAA BB	Northeastern +17 NCAA BBjoey Gaffney	Chicago JWhip					 WAS -3.0 (-110)Karl Garrett				  40* CHI				 10* CHI Under				 10* NOVAKELSO STURGEON			   Tennessee TechLem Banker				  MIA (LVTR)				  WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3				 Villanova -8.5   Larry Ness				  UW-Green Bay   Logical Approach_______________ Chicago/Washington UNDER 37 ½LT Lock				  RedskinsMaddux				  Washington -3Malinsky NBA 5*			   Dallas Mavericks (-8)				 4* CHI/WAS OverMARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK		 WASHINGTON over Chicago by 3Marco D'Angelo			   S.Carolina 3.5 (-110)				 Villanova -9.0 (-110)				 DEN 8.0 (-110)Mighty ! Quinn   Villy - 9 1/2Bears +3MIKE LINEBACK-	4* Teaser: Bears  +10 / OVER 30.5  4*Chicago Bears +3.5 (buy ½ pt)  4* MIAMI HEAT  4* ProvidenceNite Owl Sports			   Chicago Bears +3 (-106)	  North Star Sports Service			 Over 37.5				 TOWSON  12				 VAN at NASH   OV-5Ppp					 3% Mavs				 3% Providence				 3% N'eastern				 4% N.coloradoPOINTWISE				  WASHINGTON 23 - Chicago 17Pure Lock (ncaa 6-20 ytd)			NiagraScott Spreitzer's CBB 15*			UW-Green BayStephen Nover			   CHI 3.0 (-110)Strike Point Sports			   Valparaiso +1.5				 Butler -10.5				 Wisconsin Green Bay +2THE SPORTS ADVISORS			CHICAGO and UNDER				 VILLANOVAVegas Experts			   MIA-PORT Under vegas-runner				  CHI Under 37.5vernon croy				  Montreal Canadiens WAYNE ROOT			   WASH				 BUTLERWINNING POINTS			   *Atlanta over Minnesota by 7				 *Dallas over Denver by 4				 Miami over *Portland by 3Wunderdogsports			   3* Rider +140				 3* Wisconsin Green Bay 				 3* DEN/DALOVER 215 -110				 4* Tampa Bay -1.5 goals				 3* Boston -1.5 goals				 3* Nashville -1.5 goals				 3* NASHVILLE  OVER 5

 

[Steeltown Dre]

O/U is now at 40 at Pinny. I got in on the Over at 37. Steam is pounding it upwards quickly....

[Steeltown Dre]

I added a Bears/over teaser, hoping I am going to hit the middle on the points, or at least offset the Lang curse.

 

Seabass has this same teaser as his 10* NFL play:

 

Sebastian full card confirmed

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

NFL

 

10* 7ptTeaser Bears +10 and Over 31

 

Baskets College

 

7* Detroit + 10 1/2

 

10* Valparaiso +1

 

10* Wisconsin Green Bay Pick or +1 if Wisc goes to favorite change to 5*

 

Hockey

 

10* Montreal , Carolina Over 6, Nashville

[Gdawg]

Seabass has this same teaser as his 10* NFL play:

 

Sebastian full card confirmed

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

NFL

 

10* 7ptTeaser Bears +10 and Over 31

 

Baskets College

 

7* Detroit + 10 1/2

 

10* Valparaiso +1

 

10* Wisconsin Green Bay Pick or +1 if Wisc goes to favorite change to 5*

 

Hockey

 

10* Montreal , Carolina Over 6, Nashville

 

I saw Sebastian's teaser and it seems tempting, but I think I'm just going to stick with O37.5

 

Does make me feel a little better that he's on Valpo, as I am as well.

Edited December 7, 2007 by Gdawg

[Mojo Rising]

ok ....grossman not coming back (better or worse?), cambell down......doesnt look like hes coming back.

 

Both offenses havnt done anything so far.......Im thinking a second half under play looks good, any thoughts?

[Gdawg]

ok ....grossman not coming back (better or worse?), cambell down......doesnt look like hes coming back.

 

Both offenses havnt done anything so far.......Im thinking a second half under play looks good, any thoughts?

 

 

What do you think the number will be, something like 6.5?

[rattsass]

Hell, I don't know. I should be halfway to my 31 over by now if the kickers could get their heads out of their asses.

 

This game is what gambling was invented for. Becuse if I didn't have action on this turd, it would be hard to keep from turning to some sort of actual sporting event.

[Gdawg]

O/U 17