Week 14 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Mojo Rising]

Hell, I don't know. I should be halfway to my 31 over by now if the kickers could get their heads out of their asses.

 

This game is what gambling was invented for. Becuse if I didn't have action on this turd, it would be hard to keep from turning to some sort of actual sporting event.

 

 

agree 100%

 

I'd be all over Jeopardy right now..........

 

Edit: actually I'd be checking in every now and then to see AP2, since I have him starting this week

Edited December 7, 2007 by Mojo Rising

[Gdawg]

Hell, I don't know. I should be halfway to my 31 over by now if the kickers could get their heads out of their asses.

 

This game is what gambling was invented for. Becuse if I didn't have action on this turd, it would be hard to keep from turning to some sort of actual sporting event.

 

I gave up on my Over, now I'm watching Basketball.

 

agree 100%

 

I'd be all over Jeopardy right now..........

 

Edit: actually I'd be checking in every now and then to see AP2, since I have him starting this week

 

I started him too

[Gdawg]

BTW, despite the Lang Curse Valpo covered tonight!

[Gdawg]

Sweet, sweet cover! Never thought that would happen. Just turned a very good night into a GREAT night

Edited December 7, 2007 by Gdawg

[Lucky11]

...and the over! never a doubt...

[Gdawg]

...and the over! never a doubt...

 

Nothing like a FG with 37 seconds left

[rattsass]

Nothing like a FG with 37 seconds left

.....just like I planned it.

[Steeltown Dre]

The over would have hit much easier had we not lost 9 points on 3 avg distance FGs and not to mention both starting QBs went out as well.

 

Of course I was nervous - I had a fair amount of money riding on the over in this one. My system liked it and I placed a deal extra on it, considering that it was 12-0 on the season. Make it 13-0. Redskins -1.5 in the 1st half would have been a winner too.

 

My system predicted a final score of Washington 24, Chicago 18. 5 points over the line of 37, Skins winning by 6. Skins ended up putting up 24, and Chicago 16. So it was deadly accurate once again. Sometimes it's this good, but certainly not always.

 

Well, a great win that goes down to start the week at 1-0, but it feels much more like 4-0 because of the size of my wager. Hope to carry the good momentum into the weekend.

 

Ratt - your Chi/Over teaser worked out and so did Gdawg's over. Hopefully Mojo didn't put in for the 2nd half under, and it will be a clean sweep for those who posted plays. Good work fellas.

[Gdawg]

The over would have hit much easier had we not lost 9 points on 3 avg distance FGs and not to mention both starting QBs went out as well.

 

Of course I was nervous - I had a fair amount of money riding on the over in this one. My system liked it and I placed a deal extra on it, considering that it was 12-0 on the season. Make it 13-0. Redskins -1.5 in the 1st half would have been a winner too.

 

My system predicted a final score of Washington 24, Chicago 18. 5 points over the line of 37, Skins winning by 6. Skins ended up putting up 24, and Chicago 16. So it was deadly accurate once again. Sometimes it's this good, but certainly not always.

 

Well, a great win that goes down to start the week at 1-0, but it feels much more like 4-0 because of the size of my wager. Hope to carry the good momentum into the weekend.

 

Ratt - your Chi/Over teaser worked out and so did Gdawg's over. Hopefully Mojo didn't put in for the 2nd half under, and it will be a clean sweep for those who posted plays. Good work fellas.

 

It sounds like everyone did well last night, congrats guys!

[NavinRJohnson]

Dre, congrats (and thanks again) on that 13-0 o/u machine. Absolutely unreal.

 

On to the rest of the weekend. I don't think you posted on this subject, but I'd be interested in how the "superior" AFC is faring vs. the NFC this year. I would think the AFC is a pretty solid bet vs. any NFC team. Is there any solid trend in these matchups? This weekend we've got 4 games.

 

car-jax, oak-gb, stl-cin, tb-hou.

[Steeltown Dre]

Dre, congrats (and thanks again) on that 13-0 o/u machine. Absolutely unreal.

 

On to the rest of the weekend. I don't think you posted on this subject, but I'd be interested in how the "superior" AFC is faring vs. the NFC this year. I would think the AFC is a pretty solid bet vs. any NFC team. Is there any solid trend in these matchups? This weekend we've got 4 games.

 

car-jax, oak-gb, stl-cin, tb-hou.

 

Thanks Navin. 13-0 is pretty unreal, even more unreal when you've been playing it all season like I have. I started going heavier on those plays probably around Week 7, and while it won't always win, it hasn't lost so far...

 

I really haven't addressed the AFC/NFC, you are right, but that is because the "dominance" is no longer there. To provide some history:

 

I can only go back to 89 w/ good details, but here's how the SBs have gone, starting w/ SB 5 in 1971 which was the first season (1970) when AFC/NFC conferences existed

 

AFC won 9 of the first 11 ending in the 1980 season (SB XV in 81) - (Steelers 4, Oakland 2, Miami 2, Baltimore 1; Dallas 2)

NFC won 15 of the next 16, ending in the 1996 season (SB XXXI in 97) - (SF 5, Washington 3, Dallas 3, NY Giants 2, Chicago 1, GB 1; LA Raiders 1)

AFC won 8 of the next 10, ending last year (2006 season) - (NE 3, Denver 2, Pittsburgh 1, Baltimore 1, Indianapolis 1; St. Louis 1, TB 1)

 

So starting in 89, that was during NFC dominance in the SB, and the same is shown in the head to head meetings during the season:

 

Here is how the AFC did ATS vs. the NFC during this time:

 

 

1989	22-29-1	43%1990	30-21-1	59%1991	21-30-1	41%1992	25-26-1	49%1993	25-25-2	50%1994	24-26-2	48%1995	27-30-3	47%1996	27-33-0	45%

 

 

Only 1 year did the AFC have a better regular season record than the NFC during these 8 seasons, and dating back to 81, they won 15 of 16 Superbowls.

 

Then, starting in the 1997 season, things changed. The AFC suddenly started holding a strong advantage over the AFC in regular season and postseason records:

 

Here is how the AFC did ATS vs. the NFC during this time:

 

 

1997	33-24-3	58%1998	29-28-3	51%1999	30-26-4	54%2000	33-26-1	56%2001	27-32-1	46%2002	35-28-1	56%2003	31-29-4	52%2004	41-21-2	66%2005	33-29-2	53%2006	35-26-3	57%

 

 

Only 1 losing season in 2001, and during this time they won 8 of 10 Superbowls.

 

As you can see, in 2004 the dominance was never more clear. 66% ATS just by playing AFC over NFC. It dropped off in 2005 but still was winning, same w/ 2006.

 

However, this season, the AFC is only 23-25-2 against the NFC, good for a losing 48% ATS. Gone are the days you can blindly play AFC over NFC, at least for now...

 

As for this weekend, my system has plays on Jac and Cincy. Cincy I like a little better as you don't have to lay the 10.5, however Jac is still a play as well.

 

It finds very slight advantage to Hou but thinks TB wins the game, and finds very slight advantage to GB (thinks they cover) over Oak. However neither have enough value to trigger automatic plays.

[NavinRJohnson]

this season, the AFC is only 23-25-2 against the NFC, good for a losing 48% ATS.

 

Historically, I didn't think we'd see much of a trend. But, top to bottom, this year the overwhelming perception is the AFC is much better than the NFC. That would mean that there should be some real value betting the NFC. If we take the Pats (9-3 ATS) out of that 23-25-2 record, we might have something. So, not counting Pats games, the NFC is 22-14-2 (61%) ATS. Not too shabby.

 

Edit: woops. Pats are only 2-1 vs. NFC ATS. Sorry. So, not counting Pats games, the NFC is 26-25 ATS. Shabby!

Edited December 7, 2007 by NavinRJohnson

[Steeltown Dre]

Guys, here is play from the Gold Sheet. It's their 11* for the week. Supposedly they are hitting at 75% on 11* plays, which includes all sports.

 

11 *GREEN BAY over Oakland

Late Score Forecast:

*GREEN BAY 38 - OAKLAND 16

With early reports indicating Brett Favre will be ready to start after being felled at Dallas, and with other G.B. walking

wounded (including former Raider CB Charles Woodson) benefitting from extra time off, must lay the lumber.

Raiders don’t stop the run on the road (198 ypg the last 4), and RB Ryan Grant (588 YR; only four starts) a godsend

for G.B. G.B. has covered 12 of its last 16 games.

 

I have their 11*s for College BBall too. Don't know how solid they are but these factor into their 75% overall. Let me know if you want the writeups, otherwise, the plays are:

 

MARQUETTE over Wisconsin

MARQUETTE 73 - Wisconsin 60 RATING - 11

 

VIRGINIA TECH over George Washington

VIRGINIA TECH 82 - George Washington 69 RATING - 11

 

VALPARAISO over Evansville

VALPARAISO 84 - Evansville 59 RATING - 11

 

Some aren't until next week...

[whomper]

I have been checking every night and havent seen any hockey that I felt good enough about to post until tonight..I didnt want to give you guys a pick for the sake of a pick until I liked it..Tonight I have 2 plays actually. This is for 1st period under 1.5 goals

 

My best play St Louis Blues/ Edmonton Oilers under 1.5 first period

 

I also like Devils/ Capitols under 1.5 but not as much as the first one I posted..

[xMRogers]

Checking in after some absense. Currently in the longest 0-fer streak that I can remember - lost last 9 straight bets (don't even want to count my parlay loss streak). Up till that point, was doing ok, up about 5/6 units, but between a few teams I've been riding (as have most) losing last week and just some poor concepts (why in the world would Miami be a fav....gotta jump on them, right?) haven't won a bet since the Eagles-Pats game.

 

I like Hou on paper this week, and Jax. I can't bring myself to bet Cincy. Staying on the Clev and NE wagons for now (Cle cause of system play, NE cause I threw all systems with them out as of week 3 and will simply ride it the rest of the way regardless). Always on Philly

 

The Sea and Indy games intrigue me - from some past experiences, at this point in the season, playoff teams playing non-playoff teams (so usually favored) tend to cover at a decent rate, except for intra-division games which tend to go the other way. Now, Bal-Ind isn't intradivision, but has a strange relationship that almost makes it that way.

[Gdawg]

I have been checking every night and havent seen any hockey that I felt good enough about to post until tonight..I didnt want to give you guys a pick for the sake of a pick until I liked it..Tonight I have 2 plays actually. This is for 1st period under 1.5 goals

 

My best play St Louis Blues/ Edmonton Oilers under 1.5 first period

 

I also like Devils/ Capitols under 1.5 but not as much as the first one I posted..

 

Thanks Whomp, going to give them a shot tonight!

 

Hey, if you're wrong, you're wrong...it happens to all of us. Appreciate the plays

[Gdawg]

Now, Bal-Ind isn't intradivision, but has a strange relationship that almost makes it that way.

 

 

Hang in there xM, I'm sure you'll rebound soon.

 

As for the IND/BAL game, this one is very difficult to read. The fan base here (for the most part) still DETESTS IND, so the crowd will be whipped up for this game.

 

The real question is, will the team? Last week was the FIRST time all season BAL has played with true emotion and passion, with the possible exception of the CLE game, IMHO. Losing at the last possible second and all the controversy with regard to the refs had to take a lot out of the players. BAL is a little more banged up this week: McAlister may not go, Reed is dinged up...keep an eye on them.

 

IF (a big if) BAL shows up with the same amount of intensity and McAlister/Reed are healthy, I'd say BAL covers here. Going to keep a close eye on them the next couple days, if I get a better handle on the situation I'll chime in.

[xMRogers]

The fan base here (for the most part) still DETESTS IND, so the crowd will be whipped up for this game.

 

Yea, that's kinda why I almost look at this as similar to an intra-div game. There's only a couple of relationships like this around the league - usually stoked by playoff games or something (ie, Tampa-Philly for a few years) and short lived. However, this Ind-Bal thing is longstanding (one-sided, but not really)

 

Haven't decided whether to play it or not, but definitely thinking about it.

[rattsass]

Hang in there xM, I'm sure you'll rebound soon.

 

As for the IND/BAL game, this one is very difficult to read. The fan base here (for the most part) still DETESTS IND, so the crowd will be whipped up for this game.

 

The real question is, will the team? Last week was the FIRST time all season BAL has played with true emotion and passion, with the possible exception of the CLE game, IMHO. Losing at the last possible second and all the controversy with regard to the refs had to take a lot out of the players. BAL is a little more banged up this week: McAlister may not go, Reed is dinged up...keep an eye on them.

 

IF (a big if) BAL shows up with the same amount of intensity and McAlister/Reed are healthy, I'd say BAL covers here. Going to keep a close eye on them the next couple days, if I get a better handle on the situation I'll chime in.

I don't like that game at all. But if I did I would lean Colts. Reason being, the Ravens spent a lot of energy and emotion on the New England game. You have to wonder if they will have the same energy and intensity for the Colts. I would say the chances are low.

 

And after the demoralizing way they ended up losing that game? Could that have been the straw that broke the camels back? Will this team be able to rebound on a short week? Can Indy's defense be exploited like New Englands? Lets not forget the Colts can run the ball well, so weather conditions mean less to the Colts than they do the Patriots. The Ravens won't have that equalizer factor going for them this week.

 

I think Baltimore is a horrible play this week and I would advise against it. They could very easily get blown out here.

[Steeltown Dre]

The Sea and Indy games intrigue me - from some past experiences, at this point in the season, playoff teams playing non-playoff teams (so usually favored) tend to cover at a decent rate, except for intra-division games which tend to go the other way.

 

I checked on this w/ my numbers and this is what I found:

 

Since 89:

Teams w/ records of 6-6 or better in week 14 vs. teams w/ records of 5-7 or worse are: 62-63-2 ATS (50%)

Adding in the fact that it has to be a game against a non-division opponent: 35-27-1 ATS (56%)

Games against divisional opponents: 27-36-1 (43%)

 

Since 02:

Teams w/ records of 6-6 or better in week 14 vs. teams w/ records of 5-7 or worse are: 21-17-1 ATS (55%)

Adding in the fact that it has to be a game against a non-division opponent: 14-6-0 ATS (70%)

Games against divisional opponents: 7-11-1 (39%)

 

However, week 15 it gets less dominant:

 

Since 89:

Teams w/ records of 7-6 or better in week 15 vs. teams w/ records of 6-7 or worse are: 58-70-4 ATS (45%)

Adding in the fact that it has to be a game against a non-division opponent: 35-35-3 ATS (50%)

Games against divisional opponents: 23-35-1 ATS (40%)

 

Since 02:

Teams w/ records of 7-6 or better in week 15 vs. teams w/ records of 6-7 or worse are: 16-22-2 ATS (42%)

Adding in the fact that it has to be a game against a non-division opponent: 12-14-1 ATS (46%)

Games against divisional opponents: 4-8-1 ATS (33%)

 

Summary:

 

Whether week 14 or 15, teams who are "playoff contenders" and are playing a divisional opponent who is "out of the running" more or less usually fare below avg vs. the spread - around 40%

 

Recently (since 02) in week 14, teams that are "playoff contenders" and are playing a team from another division usually do better than average (70%).

 

For all other situations, nothing really jumps out and says "solid trend".

 

So, that being said, what could be come plays or fades to study:

 

Teams w/ records of 6-6 or better in week 14 vs. teams (from another division) w/ records of 5-7 or worse are: 14-6-0 ATS (70%) since 2002

 

Jac -10.5 vs Car

GB -10 vs Oak

TB - 3 vs Hou

Min -8.5 vs SF

Cle -3.5 vs NYJ

Ind -9 vs Bal

 

But realize when you take it back to 89, it is only 56%.

 

 

Fade Teams w/ records of 6-6 or better in week 14 vs. teams (in their same division) w/ records of 5-7 or worse are: 11-7-1 ATS (61%) since 2002

 

Mia +7 vs Buf

Phi -3 vs NYG

 

But realize when you take it back to 89, it is only (60%)

[Steeltown Dre]

Looking back 2 weeks ago to this weeks lines to check for value:

 

THURS

 

WAS-3 / chi

 

SUN

 

JAX-12.5 / car - Jac now -10.5

dal-7 / DET - Dal now -10.5

BUF-5.5 / mia - Buf now -7

PHL-3 / nyg

GB-10 / oak

NE-14 / pit - NE now -10.5

TEN Pk / sd

CIN-6.5 / stl

HOU-2 / tb - TB now -3

SEA-6.5 / az

min-3 / SF - Min now -8.5

cle-4 / NYJ

DEN-7.5 / kc

ind-9 / BAL (SNF)

nor-6 / ATL (MNF)

 

Those are the major movements.

[Steeltown Dre]

Here are early week 15 lines released this past Sunday:

 

SB: AFC-10 T56,,,,,,PATS 16-0: NO-170 YES+150

 

THURS

 

HOU Pk / den

 

SAT

 

cin-5.5 / SF

 

SUN

 

NOR-3 / az

TB-10.5 / atl

bal-3.5 / MIA

CLE-7 / buf

STL / gb (NL)

PIT-5 / jax

NE-24.5 / nyj

sea-4.5 / CAR

ten-2.5 / KC

ind-11.5 / OAK

SD-14 / det

DAL-10 / phl

NYG-5.5 / was (SNF)

MIN-6.5 / chi (MNF)

[xMRogers]

It was this part that i was seeing as well:

 

Whether week 14 or 15, teams who are "playoff contenders" and are playing a divisional opponent who is "out of the running" more or less usually fare below avg vs. the spread - around 40%

 

Recently (since 02) in week 14, teams that are "playoff contenders" and are playing a team from another division usually do better than average (70%)."

 

Not sure why the vast diff between div and non-div on this, and it's not a ridiculous strong trend of course.

 

Question for you - what data source do you use on this sort of quick analysis stuff - been playing with sportsdatabase.com recently. Wonder if there's a better one

[Siberia]

Week 14

 

Totals

 

St Louis at Cincinnati Over 47.5

Carolina at Jacksonville Under 38

New Orleans at Atlanta Under 44

Miami at Buffalo Under 36

NY Giants at Philadelphia over 42

 

ATS

 

Baltimore +10

Tennessee+1

Tampa Bay-3

NY Jets+3.5

Minnesota-7.5

[Steeltown Dre]

It was this part that i was seeing as well:

 

Whether week 14 or 15, teams who are "playoff contenders" and are playing a divisional opponent who is "out of the running" more or less usually fare below avg vs. the spread - around 40%

 

Recently (since 02) in week 14, teams that are "playoff contenders" and are playing a team from another division usually do better than average (70%)."

 

Not sure why the vast diff between div and non-div on this, and it's not a ridiculous strong trend of course.

 

Question for you - what data source do you use on this sort of quick analysis stuff - been playing with sportsdatabase.com recently. Wonder if there's a better one

 

I have a bunch of information stored on my computer. I use some online sites as well for research and info. Everything from nfl.com to the myriad of sports gambling sites out there. I can't say I prefer one site over another - each serve their purpose. A lot of info is automatically downloaded into my systems every week and stored on my computer. So I always have it. I build databases for certain information/trends and keep different databases of my "top trends" which I update weekly w/ potential plays.