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How important is a QB matchup for playoff success?


MTSuper7
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I posted this question in the advice thread, but taking the specific context of that question out of the equation, I wanted to see if anyone has ever adopted a strategy of picking up waiver wire QBs to plug in for one week during the playoffs because of an outstanding matchup (for those of us who didn't secure a no-brainer weekly starter). How did it pan out? Is there any history we can point to that either confirms or denies the validity of such a strategy?

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Waiver wire is asking a bit much....now, in saying that, if McNabb had been out for the season, Feely would have the Saints in week 16, so someone line that, if still avail if the McNabb owner hadn't picked up, might be worthwhile.

 

Your example of Dilfer in teh advice forum I can't see it...as much as the matchup may make sense, you could easily get 150, 2 picks out of him none-the-less and do you really want your SB hopes laying with Dilfer (no "Ravens did it" jokes please)

 

I did pick up Kevin Faulk 4 weeks ago for nothing more than weeks 15 and 16 as my flex player - Jets (everyone on the Pats scores 2 TDs) and Dolphins (they bench the starters early) - whether I use him yet i don't know, but that made sense, but as my "5th" RB/WR, not my QB

 

SO....while possible, picking up the 20th best QB to start int he playoffs due to matchup seems a bad idea..

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I posted this question in the advice thread, but taking the specific context of that question out of the equation, I wanted to see if anyone has ever adopted a strategy of picking up waiver wire QBs to plug in for one week during the playoffs because of an outstanding matchup (for those of us who didn't secure a no-brainer weekly starter). How did it pan out? Is there any history we can point to that either confirms or denies the validity of such a strategy?

The playoffs are a completely different season. Any player, position is prone to hot streaks.

 

For example, Brady has been instrumental in getting a ton of teams to the playoffs but he has cooled off considerably in his last 2 (still good but 'cooled' off to his relative pace before the last 2 games). Now he faces another tough D in week 1 of the playoffs.

 

In '05, I rode Palmer to the playoffs only for him to have his worst game of the season in week 14.

 

Bottomline is you can never bench the top QBs which is unfortunate because they're bound to put up a stinker eventually. FF playoff time is that time due to changing weather and team situations like clinching playoff seeds.

 

I think this makes having 2 middle of the road QBs advantagous come playoff time that way you can play matchups without fear of 'over managing' your team. In my pricier league last year, the teams in the championship had on their roster the following QBs... Tim Rattay, Rex Grossman, Steve McNair, and Brett Favre... hardly a murderers row but when the matchup was right last year in the 3 weeks of the playoffs, more than good enough to post some decent numbers.

Edited by kingfish247
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Sub par last two weeks or not there is no way in hell i am benching brady next week for Cutler.... Call me Crazy

:D

Umm, you're not crazy. Never suggested Brady owners should, could, or would. He's a must start every week. Like I said, it's both a luxury and curse because a stinker is coming. Maybe not even a stinker but... !GASP!... an average performance.

 

Just pointing out the flexibility of owners that have 2 decent/middle of the pack QBs to play matchups. Neither are must starts therefore it's not crazy to have to bench one or the other. The truly bad pass Ds were clear weeks ago.

 

Also, this week will likely lead to tons of headscratching by the teams that lose by the hand of Chris Redman.

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I won the championship game in a 48 team league last year by picking up Kurt Warner a couple of days prior to the game and starting him. IIRC, Leinart had been shelved for the final two games due to an injury. I had platooning Farve and Delhomme most of the season and was looking for a spark. I got it as Warner threw for well over 300 yards (huge in our league) and a score.

 

So, my answer is "yes". If I have low end starters at any given position, I'm always looking for the hot hand during the playoffs, especially when it comes to QBs and defenses where the matchups are a little more predictable.

Edited by tomfin2000
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Great example of a waiver wire QB pickup. I'm wondering if Sage Rosenfels won't be this year's version.

 

Now that's a possibility - getting a guy that is waiver wire cause of injury and has a decent matchup is definiely a good possibility.

 

It's the guys that are waiver wire cause they suck and have all year (or, in Dilfer's case, cause of injury they replaced another guy that sucked, and Dilfer himself sucks, so double suck) and going with them cause of matchups I'd say stay away from.

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Great example of a waiver wire QB pickup. I'm wondering if Sage Rosenfels won't be this year's version.

how many starters per team in your league?

 

fwiw the link in my first post shows a data sample for 65 playoff games where the winning team would have won 82% of the time WITHOUT ANY QB

Edited by keggerz
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I started Kerry ollins (NYG edition) over DCulpepper in the league SB a few years ago.

 

The scoring differential between these two players was (iirc) greater than the margin of victory.

Edited by muck
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IMHO the best waiver wire pickup of the year and the one that will help the most in the playoffs is my boy Ryan Grant

Im chasing him with Fargas,picked them both up and had to drop one to make room for Sjax return!!!

 

But I think Derek Anderson has them both topped. :D

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Bump with an update - Trent Dilfer is out vs. Cincy this weekend. Shaun Hill is starting. I might roll the dice!!!

 

 

Guy to look at may be Orton - he won't go crazy, but either he'll be decent cause he keeps Chicago in the game, or he'll be decent cause Chicago is getting blown out and throwing a lot....plus it's Monday night

 

When Chris Redman, Vinny Testy, Kyle Orton, Shaun Hill and god knows who else are starting in week 15, it's been a strange year

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