keggerz Posted December 5, 2007 Author Share Posted December 5, 2007 None of this really means anything. Show me data that I could actually make it into my leagues SB without ever starting a QB and I'll be impressed. i am working on that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 (edited) how many teams and how many starters? the reason it is "sorta" meaningful is that QBs generally dominate the top 25 of just about every league. I am not suggesting that you BENCH your QB....rather what made me look at this was the question posed in another thread about QB playoff match-ups....so far the DATA shows that all you need is a warm body and you give yourself an 80+% chance of winning your playoff match-up I know that overall team composition matters and that is why I also am asking how many teams and how many starters are in leagues....this may just be a anomaly of leagues that have a larger number of starters but then again it may not be. Right now with the data provided by me for 50 playoff match-ups(inluding SBs), Blitz 5 match-ups(SBs only) * Xm 10match-ups(SBs only) you would be looking at a winning % of 82% say what you want but to me that seems The problem with your analysis is that it applies equally to any position. Yes I can say that the winning team could have taken a 0 at the QB and still won. But so to with one of their RBs ... or one of their WRs ... or the TE ... or the PK ... or the DEF. So if the SB winner could have taken a zero at any single position and still won their game ... it kind of invalidates any analysis about just ONE of those positions. The margin of victory (MOV) was the key. 12 teams 9 starters now ... used to be 8 starters Edited December 6, 2007 by Grits and Shins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 The problem with your analysis is that it applies equally to any position. Yes I can say that the winning team could have taken a 0 at the QB and still won. But so to with one of their RBs ... or one of their WRs ... or the TE ... or the PK ... or the DEF. So if the SB winner could have taken a zero at any single position and still won their game ... it kind of invalidates any analysis about just ONE of those positions. The margin of victory (MOV) was the key. 12 teams 9 starters now ... used to be 8 starters You and I are either geniuses or idiots......(I'm guessing the former in this case, latter in most others) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 In F-OFF, my longest tenured league, we have 12 teams and start 8 players ... no TE required no PPR. 2006: MOV = 17.30. Winning team cound NOT have taken a zero from the QB. Could NOT have taken a zero at RB. Could have taken a zero from ALL the WRs combined. Could have taken a zero from PK and DF combined. 2005: MOV = 41.89. Winning team could have taken a zero from the QB as well as from any other player ... could have benched the 3rd WR + the PK + the DF AND the QB. 2004: MOV = 6.97. The winning team could NOT have taken a zero from the QB ... could have only survived taking a zero from his 3rd WR. 2003: MOV = 12.82. The winning team could have benched any of FIVE players, including the QB. Could have taken a zero from the 3rd WR + the PK. 2002: MOV = 24.00. The winning team could have benched any player including the QB ... could have taken zeros from the QB AND the 3rd WR. That is two leagues I have looked at and in both of those leagues and in most cases the margin of victory was large enough that the winning team could have taken a zero from ANY player (sometimes from MULTIPLE players) OR the victory margin was small enough that the winning team could NOT take a zero at the QB position and still win the game. I really don't see how these stats support the statement that the QB is any more worthless in the SB than any other position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 I'll leave the math to you smart folk but if I make it to the Super Bowl in either of the two leagues I made the playoffs, Manning and Brady are going to get into my line-ups. I promise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 Keggerz, I do think your research will prove a very impt point - all the stressing we do over a pont here or there is fully irrelevant. Meaning that I don't think it's just playoff/SB, but the majority of games. While our scoring avg may be close to each other over a season at a total level, I figured out that this year our avg margin of victory is 27.5 pts. Yea, the top 4 teams are withing 2 pts per game of each other on avg, but hardly ever are games decided by this. Taking this into account - a head to head vs points league may have diff strategy. Points league, trying to maximize each position is maybe more impt. head to head, most of your games will be 20 pointers - make sure you have depth to be on the right side of the 20 pts.... Don't have the time or energy to figure this out, but may go to a draft strategy lesson of letting QB/K/TE/D go even later than you do now (I'm making an assumption leap here). I do think a margin of victory analysis would be interesting - I'm still amazed our avg is 27.5 right now after 50 games... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowboysDiehard Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 (edited) I literally did it 3 years ago. I was down to my last add/drop & picked up Kyle Orton (There was literally NOTHING else out there). Bulger came back the following week, but got hurt again, during the playoffs. I had to go into the final with Orton as my starter. Thank God LJ went off for me tthat day (I think against the Giants??). Also, I had Steve Smith and Ricky Williams got the nod that day b/c Ronnie Brown was out. I squeaked out the title. Forgot to mention...Orton had been demoted to Rexy's backup by then...but he was my only shot at getting any reps. Edited December 6, 2007 by CowboysDiehard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted December 6, 2007 Author Share Posted December 6, 2007 (edited) I really don't see how these stats support the statement that the QB is any more worthless in the SB than any other position. again as i have said multiple times....someone asked in another thread if playoff matchups mattered(or something like that) for QBs I looked into that and was shocked to see that in 82% of the playoff games(including the ones supplied by you and XMrogers) that the winning team would still win without their QB....I wouldnt call 65 games a small sample either but sure you can say that because the MOV is so big that you can remove x or y....but the other main point is that QBs generally dominate the overall top 25 scorers for leagues....if anything this really helps to prove that you dont need to draft a QB early well right now I have just finished Fusion for the 2007 regular season there were 104 games played and 78 of those winners would still win without a starting QB....75% would still win without a QB add in the previous data which was 53/62 and you are looking at 131/166 or 79% but fwiw I have a feeling that in leagues that have smaller starting lineups you will see that % decrease dramatically Edited December 6, 2007 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted December 6, 2007 Share Posted December 6, 2007 again as i have said multiple times....someone asked in another thread if playoff matchups mattered(or something like that) for QBs I looked into that and was shocked to see that in 82% of the playoff games(including the ones supplied by you and XMrogers) that the winning team would still win without their QB....I wouldnt call 65 games a small sample either but sure you can say that because the MOV is so big that you can remove x or y....but the other main point is that QBs generally dominate the overall top 25 scorers for leagues....if anything this really helps to prove that you dont need to draft a QB early well right now I have just finished Fusion for the 2007 regular season there were 104 games played and 78 of those winners would still win without a starting QB....75% would still win without a QB add in the previous data which was 53/62 and you are looking at 131/166 or 79% but fwiw I have a feeling that in leagues that have smaller starting lineups you will see that % decrease dramatically So 82% of playoff games would have been won without their QB AND 82% of playoff games would have been won without one of their RBs AND 82% of playoff games would have been won without one of their WRs AND 82% of playoff games would have been won without their TEs AND 82% of playoff games would have been won without their PK AND 82% of playoff games would have been won without their DF So I guess you don't need to draft ANY position early???? Trying to draw conclusions about the QB position using this approach / data doesn't seem very statistically sound when you consider the SAME conclusion can be made for any other position using the same data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazysight Posted December 7, 2007 Share Posted December 7, 2007 In my league it has been 50/50 through 6 years. 1/2 of the teams would have lost their Superbowl had they not started their QB. This doesn't take into consideration however how significant their QB was at getting them to the Superbowl game in the first place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted December 7, 2007 Share Posted December 7, 2007 Morale to the story (something some of us have been preaching for a long time): Don't spend early to mid-early round picks on a QB in your FF draft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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