Week 15 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

Personally, I have posted 2 types of plays this year. My "system plays" which are derived from a system I have created, and my "posted plays" are either plays in addition to those plays (or at times may fade the system), or "system plays" which I want to alert as plays I think have great value, and want to add more money onto:

 

I will update my system plays and record in the next post. Here are my posted plays:

 

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 4-0

Week 4: 3-1

Week 5: 2-2-1

Week 6: 3-2-1

Week 7: 2-4

Week 8: 1-5

Week 9: 5-6 (Leans posted 2-0)

Week 10: 2-1

Week 11: 4-2-1

Week 12: 4-2 (Leans posted 2-0)

Week 13: 2-3 (Leans posted 2-0)

Week 14: 1-2 (Leans posted 1-0)

 

Overall: 40-31-3

Including leans: 50-32-3 (62%)

 

Next I'll update system records and plays for week 15

[Steeltown Dre]

System Plays Week 15:

 

1. Top ATS predictor has gone 8-7 (53%) this season and has no calculations the past two weeks

 

The HFA Update ATS Predictor has gone 38-21 this season (64%) including 2-1 last weekend.

 

This week it likes:

 

Mia

NYG (-4.5)

 

2. Top 5 leans each week:

 

Week 3: 4-1

Week 4: 5-0

Week 5: 2-3

Week 6: 3-2

Week 7: 2-3

Week 8: 3-2

Week 9: 4-1

Week 10: 1-4

Week 11: 3-2

Week 12: 4-1

Week 13: 3-2

Week 14: 3-2

 

Total 37-23 (62%)

 

This week's selections are some ugly candidates. 3 terrible teams who are home dogs, and the largest spread of the past decade plus. Tread lightly:

 

SF

Mia

NE (No play *)

KC

NYG

 

* I will caution you on this game, as I have not played it myself, on of the few times I didn't follow blindly - there is snow in the forecast for Boston on Sunday, and both the line and the total are taking hits. I'd stay away from this game personally, and find games elsewhere.

 

3. I have one ATS simulator that is pretty honest, and one that is more biased towards the dogs. I keep track of when both simulators show value for the same team. To date, the system is 34-29-7 (54%) including 3-2 last weekend.

 

This week both systems show value for another group of ugly contenders:

 

SF

Mia

NO

Car

 

4. I have also tracked when I have seen the wrong team favored. In other words, times when my system is showing the dog could actually win the game. In some cases, the dog does win, in other cases he covers, and then of course, there are times he fails to cover.

 

After starting the season 8-3, this system has gone a dreadful 6-13, which includes an embarassing 0-3 last week, losing on ATL, NYJ and Ten. 2 of the 3 legitimately could have come through, but a loss is a loss. I'll keep the record up to date, but I wouldn't advise playing these games right now.

 

This week here's the games the system is showing the wrong team is favored:

 

Mia over Bal

 

____________________________________________

 

 

Now, onto the O/U Systems:

 

1. Top Overs predictor has gone 13-0-1 (100%) this season including 1-0 on Chi/Was over. This week it puts its undefeated record on the line w/ an Under. Strange but true, it does select Unders on occasion when it thinks the line is way off. It's only push of the year came on its only Under selection of the year, back in week 3, when it took an Under on the MNF game and pushed.

 

This week it likes:

 

GB/Stl Under 52

 

I will warn you, the line has already fallen to 44 at most sites, so that is a huge swing. And in just 1 full day. I got in at Under 52 yesterday morning. I don't think it will get much lower, and in fact, I don't see a whole lot of value at Under 44, because my system actually predicts a 45 point game. So unfortunately this play won't help many of you, so I apologize for that.

 

2. I also have another Overs predictor which is 16-4 (80%). This weekend it has no selections.

 

3. The best Overs simulator has gone 43-24 this season (64%) including a remarkable 6-0 last weekend. Here are all Overs leans for this weekend:

 

Mia/Bal Over

GB/Stl Under

Pit/Jac Over (* - they are expecting weather in this game so I did not make this play, and the line has actually dropped from 39.5 to 36.5 already. I won't count this play towards the record)

Sea/Car Over

Ten/KC Over

 

4. The "top plays" from the best Unders simulator have gone 28-18 (61%) including 2-2 last week. This week the top Unders are:

 

Den/Hou

Cin/SF

Ari/NO

Atl/TB

GB/Stl

Chi/Min

 

5. When I combine these 2 simulators and compare each game, there are times that even the Over simulator has a lean to the Under, and sometimes even the Unders simulator has a lean to the Over. When both simulators lean to the same side, I have tracked those plays. The record has been 46-25(65%) including 4-2 last weekend.

 

This weekend we have:

 

Den/Hou Under

Cin/SF Under

Ari/NO Under

GB/Stl Under

Pit/Jac Over (* no play due to weather)

Sea/Car Over

Ten/KC Over

Chi/Min Under

[Steeltown Dre]

The one thing you should see is the notes about the weather. Boston, Pittsburgh and NY could get some good snow on Sat Night and into Sunday. A lot is left to be determined, but I'd stay tuned and be aware. Especially, caution on playing any overs as the lines will continue to fall.

 

For Was/NYG, Pit/Jac, NE/NYJ:

 

If you want overs, wait.

 

If you want unders, get them NOW!

 

If you want NYJ, take them NOW!

 

If you want NE, wait.

 

If you want Pit or NYG, I don't know how much the line will move, as those spreads have not moved to date, and the lines are already short.

[Steeltown Dre]

TEDDY COVERS ---> 12-1-1 THIS YEAR !!!!!!

BEST BET

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh -4 O/U 39

Recommendation: Over

Very quietly, under the radar, the Jacksonville Jaguars have become

one of the NFL’s strongest Over teams. The Jags have gone Over

the total in each of their last seven games, producing a combined

score of at least 41 points each time. Jacksonville’s offense has become

a well oiled machine, putting up 24-plus in each of those last

seven games. Quarterback David Garrard has only thrown one interception

all year, and Jacksonville’s strong running game, led by

the duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, ensures that when

they reach the red zone, they score touchdowns. The Jags have

big play potential from their running game as well as their passing

game, and let’s not forget to mention the defensive touchdown that

Jacksonville scored last week –- again, finding ways to reach the

end zone. Pittsburgh has gone under the total in each of their last

two home games, in large part due to the deplorable conditions at

Heinz Field in foul weather. But prior to those two weather related

Unders, the Steelers at home has been the single strongest Over

play in the entire NFL over the past three seasons -- 17-3-1 since

the start of the 2005 campaign. Pittsburgh, like Jacksonville, has

extraordinary balance on offense leading to great red zone efficiency.

And while the Steelers have allowed fewer points than

any defense in the league this year, let’s not forget the litany of

weak offenses that they’ve faced. The last three strong offensive

teams that Pittsburgh has faced (Denver, Cleveland and New England),

each put up four touchdowns or more against this defense.

 

This guy liked the over, just like my system showed. But I think it's wise to see about the weather, and definitely not play an over right now...

[Steeltown Dre]

Lang's plays on the Dennis Miller show:

 

DALLAS - 10

JAX + 4

N.E. - 24

[Steeltown Dre]

Here are the week 15 lines released 2 Sundays ago:

 

THURS

 

HOU Pk / den

 

SAT

 

cin-5.5 / SF (now at -9.5)

 

SUN

 

NOR-3 / az

TB-10.5 / atl (now at -13.5)

bal-3.5 / MIA

CLE-7 / buf

STL / gb (NL)

PIT-5 / jax

NE-24.5 / nyj

sea-4.5 / CAR (now at -9)

ten-2.5 / KC

ind-11.5 / OAK

SD-14 / det (now at -10)

DAL-10 / phl

NYG-5.5 / was (SNF)

MIN-6.5 / chi (MNF) (now at -10)

[rattsass]

Lang's plays on the Dennis Miller show:

 

DALLAS - 10

JAX + 4

N.E. - 24

I think it is foolhardy to be taking the Pats -24 with the possible weather conditions on Sunday. Snow and a good stiff breeze could seriously put a dent in the Pats plans to run up the score.

 

As a matter of fact. I agree with you Dre, if you want to bet the Jets I would latch onto the 24 now, and see if the weather doesn't drastically reduce the spread as the game nears.

 

You can always lay off the Jets later by betting the Pats if the weather turns out not to be so much of a factor.

 

Interesting opportunity here in my opinion.

[Steeltown Dre]

You are right ratt. You have a total which dropped from 52 down to 46 at some places. That's 6 points. We already know to cover a line of -24 requires everything to work out right. By setting a line at -24, the public thinks: "Vegas sees a blowout here". The question is, are they right? However, the public is not necessairly right in "Vegas sees a blowout here". Sometimes Vegas will set the line to make you think a game should go one way or another, to jump on board.

 

In the case of this game, on a 70 degree sunny day it could be a blowout. And, in a 28 degree snowstorm it could be a blowout. The only difference is, is it more likely to happen in perfect conditions?

 

That depends on who you think the weather will favor.

 

Obviously the O/U is dropping 6 points because Vegas is thinking the weather will favor both teams combining for less than 52 points. So they have to drop the total. It could stay the same but most likely will drop even further. So if fewer total points are scored, both teams putting up a % of what they would have put up, or is one team putting up much less than the other. Factor in the kicking game is very difficult (which is how a lot of key points make their way onto a board) in the snow, and you've got a closer game.

 

The other interesting thing I've noticed is the lack of bets placed on this game so far. According to some sites, it has the 2nd fewest bets placed on it so far (Ari/NO, which was just posted, has the fewest).

 

What this is telling me is people are not willing to get roped into the craziness of the "Perfect Season" and perfer to place their bets on games without ulterior motives and ridiculously high point spreads. Especially when one team seems to be measuring its success on the number of points it can beat you by. Second, it tells me that people want to see what is happening w/ the weather.

 

However, the NYG/Was and Pit/Jac games have many more bets than the NE/NYJ game, so I think it's a combination of the two.

 

It could be a good thing to take the Jets now and Pats closer to kick. But personally, for now, I'm staying away from everything in that game. There are always unknowns in the NFL, but the fewer factors you have to consider each week, the more likely you can guess an outcome. It seems w/ the Pats, especially post-Week 11, when the books started tossing up huge numbers, there are many more factors to consider than other games on the board.

 

Another thing to confuse things even more:

 

Largest line the Pats have covered this year was -16.5. That was home vs. Buf week 3. In the rematch game week 11 (coming off a week 9 ATS loss to the Colts and then a week 10 bye) in Buf, the line was -15.5 and NE won by 46.

 

Since then, lines have been in the 20s and Pats have not covered against Bal and against Phi.

 

Personally, my system has set the line at -27.5. On a field that favors no team more than the other, and a field that is in a condition that is more or less the same as all the other prior games, I see NE covering. But factor in the field and the weather and the really high spread, I'll stay my distance for now.

Edited December 12, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

Week 16 lines:

 

PATS 16-0: YES-420 / NO +350,,,,,,SB: AFC-10 T57

 

THURS

 

pit-12 / STL

 

SAT

 

dal-13 / CAR

 

SUN

 

CIN-1 / cle

gb-6 / CHI

IND-13 / hou

DET-4.5 / kc

NE-22.5 / mia

BUF-1 / nyg

JAX-13 / oak

NOR-4 / phl

MIN-7 / was (SNF)

AZ-10 / atl

SEA-10 / bal

TEN-9 / nyj

tb-9.5 / SF

SD-7 / den (MNF)

[xMRogers]

Lang's plays on the Dennis Miller show:

 

DALLAS - 10

JAX + 4

N.E. - 24

 

Swear to god, if Jax and NE don't cover, I'm suing Lang for being a jinx

[xMRogers]

While the weather scares me a bit in the NE game (and definitely on the total), not all that much. NE is 30-42 pts better than the Jets. You put some adverse conditions in, sure, it may bring NE's total down, but it also could easily mean a shutout. The Mia/Pit game was a straight out weather game, but barring something like that, don't see the weather impacting the margin too much.

 

As obvious as this one is, I think Tampa -13.5 is just a lock. People always have this opinion that the sort of thing Atlanta is going through "will bring them together". In the NFL, distraction is the enemy. Execution is so important that something like this will very much hinder Atlanta's play - somewhat akin to the game after Taylor's death. As much as the emotional lift may have helped a bit, playing in the NFL with tears in your eyes is going to make it tough.

 

They weren't within two TD's of Tampa in Tampa anyway - now, i'll be surprised if this isn't a 24+ pt game.

[Steeltown Dre]

Here's how he's done on those picks:

 

Week 14 he went: 2-1 on Dal over Det (says Dal blows em out, Miller says "I don't believe you", NYG over Phi, and NE over Pit

watch the video, Miller rides him hard: http://youtube.com/watch?v=n31_exyTEgY

Week 13 he went: 0-3 on Phi over Sea, Indy over Jac (said Jac is looking terrible) and GB over Dal (thinks GB wins outright)

Week 12 he went 1-2 w/ NE over Phi, Det over GB and Oak over KC

Week 11 he went 2-1 w/ Det over NYG, Jac over SD, and NE over Buf

Week 10 he went 1-2 w/ NYG over Dal, Min over GB and SD over Ind

 

That's a total of 6-9 ATS, and is very, very bad...

 

He did get 2-1 last week, so you may get lucky on Jax and NE, but it would only be because you like them, I wouldn't bet my $ on anything Lang says.

[xMRogers]

He did get 2-1 last week, so you may get lucky on Jax and NE, but it would only be because you like them, I wouldn't bet my $ on anything Lang says.

 

Oh, I don't even pay attention to him, but seems after the fact whenever hes on something I bet, it loses.....

[Gdawg]

Sorry I haven't been around much guys, been very, very busy.

 

Giving serious consideration to NYJ @ NEP U48 and NYJ +24. It really does seem as though the forcasted storm will have a major impact on the area. It doesn't seem certain as to the form of precipitation that will fall, but it does seem certain that there will be high winds, very high winds.

 

WAS @ NYG should also be impacted as well, thinking U38 for that matchup.

[Steeltown Dre]

Budin has a 25 dimer for tonight's game. Get it and bet it... just kidding, that's his catch phrase. I'll post it when I get it. Here is his record:

 

The first was a 100 Dimer in week 1 when the Steelers (-5) crushed the Browns in Cleveland 34-7.

 

The second was a 100 Dimer with the Giants (-3) in a 35-24 win over the Jets 10 Sundays ago.

 

The third was a 100 Dimer with the Eagles (-4) in a 16-9 win over the Jets nine Sundays ago.

 

The fourth was a 100 Dimer with the Giants (-5') in a 31-10 win over the Falcons nine Mondays ago.

 

The fifth was a 50 Dimer with the Cowboys (-9') in a 24-14 win over the Vikings eight Sundays ago.

 

The sixth was a 50 Dimer with the Steelers (-4) in a 24-13 win over the Bengals seven Sundays ago.

 

The seventh was a 50 Dimer with the Lions (-3) in a 44-7 win over the Broncos six Sundays ago.

 

The eighth was a 25 Dimer with the Steelers (-9) in a 38-7 win over the Ravens six Mondays ago.

 

The ninth was a 100 Dimer with the Cowboys (-1') in a 31-20 win over the Giants five Sundays ago.

 

The 10th was a 50 Dime two-team teaser with the Eagles (-3') over the Dolphins combined with the Lions (+9) versus the Giants four Sundays ago.

 

The 11th was a 25 Dimer with the Packers (-3') in a 37-26 win over the Lions on Thanksgiving.

 

The 12th was a 25 Dimer with the Buccaneers (-3') in a 19-13 win over the Redskins three Sundays ago.

 

The 13th was a 50 dime loser on the Steelers three Mondays ago against Miami.

 

The 14th was a 50 Dime loser on the Titans-Texans total two Sundays ago.

 

The 15th was a 50 Dime winner on the Steelers-Bengals total two Sundays ago.

 

The 16th was a 50 Dime loser on the Eagles (-3) versus the Giants last Sunday.

 

The 17th was a 50 Dime 3-Team teaser winner on the Jaguars, Patriots and Colts last Sunday.

 

His big plays do really well, and so do his small plays. The 50 dimes have struggled lately. His teasers have gone 2-0. Anyhow, let's see what he likes tonight... he has not straight bet a single dog in his 17 plays. He's included dogs in both teasers. And he's 1-1 on totals, playing unders in both.

 

So it doesn't take a smart guy to guess he's most likely on the fav or perhaps the under. That seems to be his style, but let's wait and see...

[Gdawg]

I'll keep an eye out too, Dre. Good to hear he's got something going tonight.

 

Haven't laid the game yet and now that I know Budin has something going, I will wait. He did whiff on the PHI -3 pick Sunday but the 3 team teaser was a monster pick, all three cruised to victory.

[Steeltown Dre]

I'll keep an eye out too, Dre. Good to hear he's got something going tonight.

 

Haven't laid the game yet and now that I know Budin has something going, I will wait. He did whiff on the PHI -3 pick Sunday but the 3 team teaser was a monster pick, all three cruised to victory.

 

Last Sunday I didn't see any value in Philly, my system thought the -3 was a pretty acurate line. That game was close and Philly could have covered, so it's not like Budin was way off, but I did take Philly in part due to him and in part due to Root's Chairman was on them too. Unfortunately, Lang laid a 10 Dimer on them and we know how it went...

Edited December 13, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Gdawg]

Last Sunday I didn't see any value in Philly, my system thought the -3 was a pretty acurate line. That game was close and Philly could have covered, so it's not like Budin was way off, but I did take Philly in part due to him and in part due to Root's Chairman was on them too. Unfortunately, Lang laid a 10 Dimer on them and we know how it went...

 

Yep, Budin AND Root being on PHI is what put me on them too. Maybe it was the Lang curse that made the final FG attempt hit the crossbar?

[Steeltown Dre]

Lovell has a 20* on the Under tonight.

 

Here is his record per his website:

 

2007-2008 NFL

 

Overall 26-18-2 +189 units

Blank Check 1-0

50* 2-0 +100 units

40* 2-1-1 +36 units

20* 3-4 -280units

10* 13-10-1 +20 units

5* 5-4 +4 units

Monday Night Football 8-4 +85 units

Edited December 13, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

Here's an ever growing list of tout sides/totals for tonight:

 

Burns NFL__________________________________________TEXANS (-3 or better)

Cappers Access __________________Comp 1_________________________Texans

Mighty ! Quinn___________________________________________Texans (pickem)

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK NEWSLETTER____________Houston Over Denver By 3

LT's Lock Of The Day_____________The LOCK__________________The Texans +1

Jeff Benton_____________________15 Dime____________TEXANS plus the points

ANDY ISKOE NEWSLETTER______Best of the Rest______HOUSTON - 1 over Denver

Drew Gordon___________________300,000♦_________________________Texans

John Ryan_______________________________________________Houston Texans

 

 

Pointwise__________________________________________Denver 31 Houston 24

Michael Cannon______________40 Dime__________________________BRONCOS

THEERODFATHER OF SPORTS________15 UNITS ___________________DENVER-1

Winners Edge__________________3 units_________________Denver Broncos -1

North Star______________________Best Bet____________________DENVER 1.5

MIKE LINEBACK____________________4*____________________Denver Broncos

Nelly Sportsline__________________________________________Denver Broncos

Winning Points_________________________________________________Broncos

Matt Rivers_____________________50,000♦____________________________Broncos

Kendall Holiday_____________NFL Game of the Month___________Denver Broncos

ATS LOCK________________________4_______________________________Denver -1 ½

Black Magic Sports_______________5 Unit BEST BET________________________Denver -1

 

 

 

Vegas Experts____________________________________________________Over

Dave Cokin______________________comp____________________________Over

Jeff Benton_____________________10 Dime:____________Texans-Broncos OVER

The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!!_Technical Plays of the Week____DENVER-HOUSTON “Over”

ANDY ISKOE NEWSLETTER______Best of the NFL Total________________ OVER 47

Tout House comp_______________________________________________ Over 47

ATS FINANCIAL____________________3____________________________Over 47 Denver

 

 

 

THEERODFATHER OF SPORTS________15 UNITS _________________UNDER 47.5

The Scout_______________________comp__________Denver/Houston under 47½

Maddux Sports____________________2 star_________________hou/den under 48

Jim Rich______________________________________________ Texans Under (47

Kevin O'Neil (the Max)_______________________________Under DENVER/HOUST

THE MAXX / Kevin O'Neill________________________________________ under 47

Lovell__________________________20*_________________under 47.5 Hous/Den

[Gdawg]

As I said earlier, I'm awating what Budin has to say, but personally I am leaning on HOU.

 

The line swing is odd, HOU started as a -1.5 FAV, then the "word" got out that Schaub wasn't going to start. Now HOU is +1.5? Honestly I don't see that as being the reason, I never thought he'd start this game, not for a second. Something seems afoot...

[Marauders11]

Steven Budin-CEO

 

THURSDAY'S PICK

 

25 DIME PLAY

 

 

 

HOUSTON TEXANS

[rattsass]

I am seeing Texans +3 on one of my sites. Wasn't going to play this one, but I am real tempted to take the points at that number.

[Steeltown Dre]

Thanks for posting Marauders. Personally I think Budin's crew was targeting this play all week, and didn't let the line movement scare them away. I'd bet they like Hou -1.5 or Hou +1. However, he says he's taking them at +2.5, so keep that in mind.

 

Wayne Root is also on the Texans for his Chairman, so 2 guys w/ solid records on the Texans. Of course, Lang will come along and play the Texans and ruin everything....

 

As for O/U, I've got a system play on the Under already, at U47. Lines up w/ Lovell's 20* selection, but those have not been doing so hot (he's 3-4 on 20*s).

 

Don't know if I'll pick a side here, but I'll stick w/ my system Under.

 

I know Den on the road avgs 20 ppg and Hou at home allows 19.

Hou at home scores 25 and Den allows 30.

 

Avg all of them and you've got 47 right there. But my system likes the Under, so I'll roll w/ it.

[Steeltown Dre]

LVTR

 

Play: HOUSTON +1.5 (NFL)

Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: HOUSTON +1.5 (NFL)

 

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) LATE ADDITION SELECTION: MIAMI HURRICANES vs MISSISSIPPI STATE

Play: MIAMI (NCAAB +6)

Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) LATE ADDITION SELECTION: Always check back by 7pm est week days and 6pm est on the Week ends. Always remember that plays posted early are always LVTR primary plays. Today's Late addition play is : MIAMI (NCAAB +6)

 

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) LATE ADDITION SELECTION: MIAMI vs MISSISSIPPI STATE

Play: MIAMI vs MISSISSIPPI STATE OVER 135 (NCAAB)

Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) LATE ADDITION SELECTION: Always check back by 7pm est week days and 6pm est on the Week ends. Always remember that plays posted early are always LVTR primary plays. Today's Late addition play is : MIAMI vs MISSISSIPPI STATE OVER 135 (NCAAB)

Edited December 13, 2007 by Steeltown Dre